Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance
Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions.
Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Introduction
(0:02:29) - Predicting the future
(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information
(0:06:20) - Potentials
(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets
(0:11:04) - Doing the painful thing
(0:13:31) - Decision Making Process
(0:14:52) - Grugett’s opinion about insider trading
(0:16:23) - The Role of prediction market
(0:18:17) - Dealing with the Speculators
(0:20:33) - Criticism of Prediction Markets
(0:22:24) - The world when people cared about prediction markets
(0:26:10) - Grugett’s Profile Background/Experience
(0:28:49) - User Result Market
(0:30:17) - The most important mechanism
(0:32:59) - The 1000 manifold dollars
(0:40:30) - Efficient financial markets
(0:46:28) - Manifold Markets Job/Career Openings
(0:48:02) - Objectives of Manifold Markets
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
More description
Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions.
Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Introduction
(0:02:29) - Predicting the future
(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information
(0:06:20) - Potentials
(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets
(0:11:04) - Doing the painful thing
(0:13:31) - Decision Making Process
(0:14:52) - Grugett’s opinion about insider trading
(0:16:23) - The Role of prediction market
(0:18:17) - Dealing with the Speculators
(0:20:33) - Criticism of Prediction Markets
(0:22:24) - The world when people cared about prediction markets
(0:26:10) - Grugett’s Profile Background/Experience
(0:28:49) - User Result Market
(0:30:17) - The most important mechanism
(0:32:59) - The 1000 manifold dollars
(0:40:30) - Efficient financial markets
(0:46:28) - Manifold Markets Job/Career Openings
(0:48:02) - Objectives of Manifold Markets
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com
Listen elsewhere
Available Results
Generated results are saved to your library for reuse and search.