Cold Confusion: Alexandros Marinos unpacks the TOGETHER Trial with Bret

Bret speaks with Alexandros Marinos, who has analyzed the TOGETHER trial, which aims to identify effective repurposed therapies to prevent the disease progression of COVID-19.

Alexandros is the Founder/CEO of http://balena.io & aspiring practical philosopher. Find him on:

https://twitter.com/alexandrosm

https://doyourownresearch.substack.com/

Mentioned in this episode:

https://www.togethertrial.com/

https://doyourownresearch.substack.com/p/the-problem-with-the-together-trial

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Theme Music: Thank you to Martin Molin of Wintergatan for providing us the rights to use their excellent music.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:11) Better Skeptics project – analyzing COVID podcasts

(08:12) TOGETHER trial and its timeline

(15:35) Ads

(19:08) Dosage & initial TOGETHER trial design 

(25:29) Confusing paper and placebo group dropout?

(31:23) IVM dose too low and new protocol

(35:04) Trial recruitment over time and key 10-week period

(43:42) Systemic errors

(51:33) Placebo arm from earlier period?

(57:11) Trial data not being released

(01:02:27) Exclusion criteria flipped

(01:06:38) Hypothesis on algorithm rebalancing arms

(01:13:35) Allocation to Fluvoxamine arm

(01:17:12) TOGETHER trial authors believe IVM has an effect

(01:20:15) Credible intervals and Bayesian statistics

(01:25:55) Will we ever get the full story? 

(01:30:28) Dosing and weight limit

(01:34:52) Background use of IVM in Brazil

(01:47:19) “Independent” committee monitoring trial

(01:54:29) Cavallo study and inconsistency in response

(01:57:41) Press releases and cold confusion

(02:09:27) Wrap up

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