Betting on the Iran war

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are making it possible for just about anyone to profit off war.

This episode was produced by Hady Mawajdeh, edited by Amina Al-Sadi and Jolie Myers, fact-checked by Andrea López-Cruzado, engineered by Patrick Boyd and David Tatasciore, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram.

A betting page on Kalshi about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Photo by Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

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Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are making it possible for just about anyone to profit off war.

A betting page on Kalshi about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Photo by Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. New Vox members get $20 off their membership right now. Transcript at ⁠vox.com/today-explained-podcast.⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2026-03-17 25 min

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