073 - Bayes' Theorem
We don’t treat all of our beliefs equally.
For some, we see them as either true or false, correct or incorrect. For others, we see them as probabilities, chances, odds. In one world, certainty, in the other, uncertainty.
In this episode you will learn from two experts in reasoning how to apply a rule from the 1700s that makes it possible to see all of your beliefs as being in “grayscale,” as neither black nor white, neither 0 nor 100 percent, but always somewhere in between, as a shade of gray reflecting your confidence in just how wrong you might be...given the evidence at hand.
• Show notes: http://bit.ly/1Nfby8T
• Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/youarenotsosmart
• Donate Directly through PayPal: https://www.paypal.me/DavidMcRaney
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• MIT Press: https://mitpress.mit.edu/smart
• Casper Mattresses: https://casper.com/sosmart
• The Great Courses Plus: https://www.thegreatcoursesplus.com/smart
Patreon: http://patreon.com/youarenotsosmart
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We don’t treat all of our beliefs equally.
For some, we see them as either true or false, correct or incorrect. For others, we see them as probabilities, chances, odds. In one world, certainty, in the other, uncertainty.
In this episode you will learn from two experts in reasoning how to apply a rule from the 1700s that makes it possible to see all of your beliefs as being in “grayscale,” as neither black nor white, neither 0 nor 100 percent, but always somewhere in between, as a shade of gray reflecting your confidence in just how wrong you might be...given the evidence at hand.
• Show notes: http://bit.ly/1Nfby8T
• Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/youarenotsosmart
• Donate Directly through PayPal: https://www.paypal.me/DavidMcRaney
SPONSORS
• MIT Press: https://mitpress.mit.edu/smart
• Casper Mattresses: https://casper.com/sosmart
• The Great Courses Plus: https://www.thegreatcoursesplus.com/smart
Patreon: http://patreon.com/youarenotsosmart
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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