The Intelligence from The Economist

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Russia says it will withdraw from the only captured Ukrainian provincial capital. We ask how the drawdown might go and what it means for the wider war. Britain is set for the largest wave of industrial action in decades; the strikes could throw the country into chaos. And the long life of Shyam Saran Negi, India’s first-ever voter.

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America’s midterm elections, which will determine control of both chambers of Congress, end on Tuesday. For the past three months our correspondents have been travelling across the country, reporting on the trends and concerns shaping the race. This compilation episode highlights the best of their work. For full access to print, digital and audio editions of The Economist, subscribe here www.economist.com/intelligenceoffer

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A surprise peace agreement should permit desperately needed humanitarian relief for millions in the region of Tigray—but there are reasons to doubt the grinding conflict is at an end. Britain has a problem that other rich countries do not: its over-50s are flooding out of the labour market. And our correspondent attends an unexpectedly tame “crypto rave”.

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Our election model suggests that at least one legislative chamber will revert to Republican control; we ask what sort of government would result. The breach of the Nord Stream pipelines is a reminder of how much infrastructure is at risk of subsea sabotage. And what the trendy term “ikigai” actually means in Japan, its ostensible country of origin.

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After a 16-month absence from leadership, Binyamin Netanyahu is back at the centre of the country’s messy politics. We ask how his divisive ways will play out this time. Apple is slowly weaning itself off China as a place both to make and to sell its gizmos. And how the “palaeo” diet bears little resemblance to the real thing.

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As President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine continues to falter, Russian elites are now daring to consider the once unthinkable: a life after his leadership. Haiti is in grave disarray, but calling in foreign help to sort things out is proving tricky. And the diamond in Britain’s crown jewels that India wants back.

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Russia has been targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with missiles and drones. Ukraine’s air defences are struggling to keep up, and many households are without power as winter approaches. Bill Gates has a plan to boost African crop yields. And as the BBC turns 100, we reflect on its legacy, and look at challenges ahead. For full access to print, digital and audio editions of The Economist, subscribe here www.economist.com/intelligenceoffer

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The Economist’s comparison of Liz Truss’s staying power to that of a lettuce captured global imaginations. Will the next prime minister have a longer shelf-life? We ask why it has proven so tricky to get the Middle East’s considerable natural-gas resources to market. And the murder of Yurii Kerpatenko, a conductor from Kherson who refused to bow to Russian orders.

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Unrest is only spreading and the authorities trying to quell it are looking increasingly desperate. We hear from one protester among many who are racked by fear but motivated by hope. The leader of the shadowy Wagner Group of mercenaries has revealed himself; we ask why. And a look at how few workers call in sick these days. 

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State media have taken to calling President Xi Jinping “the helmsman”; at the five-yearly meeting he defended his means of steering the country. We ask how to read between his tightly prepared lines. Many of America’s firms will soon deliver disappointing profits—and there is more to blame than simple business cycles. And research suggests that parenthood causes fathers’ brains to shrink.

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Paroxysms in the market for gilts—British-government bonds that were once safe-haven assets—reveal just how wounded the new government’s plans have left it. Cuba is experiencing the worst economic crisis in decades, and those who are not protesting are heading for the door. And making the case to let your lawn go wild.

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Our correspondent meets with Peter Obi, who has a handsome poll lead and an appeal that spans the country’s religions and ethnicities. But his presidential bid still faces obstacles. Myanmar’s ruling junta is doing more than suppressing the country’s people: it is battering the economy equally efficiently. And remembering Brother Andrew, who made daring deliveries behind the Iron Curtain.

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An attack on the Kerch bridge—a pet project of President Vladimir Putin that links Russia with annexed Crimea—has prompted a swift and brutal response. We ask what is likely to happen next. We examine the multipolar nature of popular culture: fears of a globalised monoculture of cool have proved misplaced. And why buying booze in Delhi has again become so unpleasant. 

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Ukraine’s army has pushed Russian forces back in the south and east. We ask how they’ve managed to make such impressive gains so quickly, whether more could follow and what Russia’s reaction might be. Why Britain has such troubles building homes, power stations and really much of anything. And how Maine’s lobstermen are responding to the latest threat to their industry.

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In the next instalment of our midterms series, we head to the suburbs of Atlanta in search of that rarest of political creatures: the swing voter. There aren’t many of them, but they may well determine which party controls the Senate. Luxury brands are changing their outlooks and offerings as they seek new markets and younger consumers. And our culture correspondent visits a retrospective of William Kentridge’s works.

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Prime Minister Liz Truss has had a bruising first few weeks in office. Amid policy U-turns and plummeting poll numbers, her Tory party’s annual shindig is a venue for much soul-searching. Russia’s “partial mobilisation” is unlikely to help much on the battlefield—and is proving exceedingly unpopular at home. And the dangers of naming species after people who become notorious.

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Jair Bolsonaro, the incumbent president, did unexpectedly well—giving his campaign a boost and foreshadowing a tough run-up to the second round. Malawi’s incipient democracy stands as a shining regional example, but remaking its economy has proved even harder than ousting its undemocratic leader. And why one tank is a particularly handsome prize amid Ukraine’s growing pile of captured Russian kit.

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After a series of sham referendums, President Vladimir Putin is expected to annex four partly occupied regions of Ukraine. We ask what risks that move would pose. What has driven China’s president to amass such tremendous personal power? We introduce our new, long-form podcast “The Prince”, which dives deep into his life. And video-game music is rapidly growing in prestige.

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president, looks well-placed to win a third term. But which Lula would Brazil get—the fiscal conservative or the populist spendthrift? Germany has an earned reputation as an industrial powerhouse, but its dependence on Russian gas and Chinese demand are hobbling it. And why the propaganda-spewing loudspeakers in Vietnam’s capital are firing up again.

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The markets are so far entirely unconvinced that the new administration’s Reagan-esque economic plans will work to spur growth—just look at sterling's tumble. In Tibet, China’s mass collection of DNA samples has one unabashed motive: social control. And the curious wave of “unretirees” returning to work after the pandemic.

Additional audio courtesy of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

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Italians have voted decisively for a coalition of right-wing parties, with Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy, the likely next prime minister. What this means for Italy, Europe and the war in Ukraine remains unclear. Latin American prisons are awful and getting worse. And a surprising hit film makes Chinese authorities nervous.

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This morning Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would call up more troops to fight in Ukraine, said his goal of “liberating” eastern Ukraine remained unchanged and accused the west of “nuclear blackmail.” Our correspondent parses his speech. Our midterm series heads to Maine, to see how Democrats are fighting for rural voters. And a new discovery in Borneo rewrites the history of surgery.

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Two years in the making, the country’s new foundational document was summarily swatted down in a referendum. We ask how it went so wrong, and what comes next. Data show a long-held view on fertility and prosperity is not as straightforward as thought; we examine the policy implications. And learning about HARM—the missiles causing so much harm to Russian forces.

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Five years after a brutal campaign that drove nearly 750,000 out of Myanmar and into Bangladesh, conditions for the Muslim minority remain appalling on both sides of the border. Central Asian countries are laying plans for railways that would fill their coffers, distance Russia and empower China. And the economics lessons in London’s queue to see Queen Elizabeth II.

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As the presidents of China and Russia meet in Uzbekistan, we examine their friendship. They have much in common—but Russia’s prosecution of the war in Ukraine may strain relations. Islamic State and al-Qaeda may be less in the news but their foothold in Africa only keeps growing. And why so many young Korean city-slickers are becoming farmers in the countryside.

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A conflict smouldering since a war in 2020 has again caught alight; Azerbaijan may feel emboldened by a distracted Russia and its own energy prospects. Gulf countries are swimming in piles of unexpected, oil-derived cash: we ask whether they will sock it away or splurge on citizens and pet projects. And why many Lebanese couples are choosing to wed online.

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Vladimir Putin hopes the threat of cutting off fuel supplies this winter will weaken Europe’s support for Ukraine. European leaders are trying to cobble together a collective response to prevent such fracturing. Before Russia invaded, Ukraine’s surrogacy industry was booming. It has since been disrupted, but not ended. And Britain’s bird populations are changing: we ask why.

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Russia has lost in a week what cost it months to gain in eastern Ukraine. We ask what the lightning counter-offensive means for the war. What is more surprising than Mississippi’s capital lacking access to clean drinking water is that millions of other Americans face the same struggle. And the quasi-astrological methods some investors use to predict market movements.

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The death of Queen Elizabeth II marks the end of an era. We explore her long, dutiful reign and how it shaped the modern monarchy. The country has changed substantially during her time, but one parallel remains: her successor, King Charles III, will also take over at a time of uncertainty for the country and for the monarchy itself.

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In Brazil, fears are growing that if Jair Bolsonaro loses in October, as polls suggest is likely, he may try to stage a coup or foment violence. He’s been sowing distrust in the country’s electoral system, and many of his supporters are well-armed. Should school lunches be free? And why the gap between the number of boys and girls born in India is narrowing.

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Our model, built to predict the outcome of this year’s midterm elections, tips Republicans to take the House and Democrats to retain control of the Senate. The model’s architect discusses how and why he built it, and our polling guru explains why polls matter. Why there’s no nuclear-arms race in Asia—yet. And Egypt wants the Rosetta Stone back, but it’s not that simple.

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As Liz Truss becomes prime minister, we ask whether her meat-and-potatoes tax-slashing agenda will work for a crisis-stricken Britain. Japan’s prison population is ageing just as its wider society is—and that is at last prompting reforms to its punitive penal system. And why Ukraine’s short supply of anti-tank missiles is not as worrying as it would once have been. 

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