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Published 2024-10-11

WAGD: How Close is Iran to a Bomb?

37 min
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As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, so does concern over the current state of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Is Israel likely to target nuclear facilities? How close is Iran actually to having a bomb? What role does the United States play in all this? Kelsey Davenport, Director of Non-Proliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, and Eric Brewer, Deputy Vice President at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, join Jon to talk all things Iran, nuclear policy, and more.

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In recent days, Donald Trump has escalated his attacks on CBS News, raging at the network over something they supposedly did involving Kamala Harris’s interview on “60 minutes.” He has now stated repeatedly that CBS should lose its broadcasting license. We think this is a clear warning about what a second Trump term would look like. We talked to Michael Sozan, author of a new report for the Center for American Progress Action Fund on Project 2025. He gets specific about how an authoritarian Trump presidency could use government power to bring independent media to heel.

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Former USG Intel analyst and current Washington Institute for Near East Policy senior official Matthew Levitt (@Levitt_Matt) joins Marc to discuss an extraordinary several weeks in the region. From Israel conducting “open heart surgery” on Hizballah, a Gaza with a significantly reduced Hamas but no “day after” plan, to what to do about the burgeoning Iranian nuclear program, Matt’s views are essential to assessing the CT landscape in the Middle East and ultimately unpacking the policy challenges for both the US and Israel.

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It’s a big question in the presidential race: Will Republican and independent voters who backed Nikki Haley in GOP primaries support Donald Trump at the levels he needs? New data suggests the answer may be No. The Bulwark reports that a new poll taken by a Democratic firm finds a surprisingly large percentage of voters who backed Haley defecting to Kamala Harris. And a New York Times national poll finds her making new inroads among GOP voters. How real is all this? We talked to the Bulwark’s Marc Caputo, who’s well sourced among Republicans, about the perils this poses to Trump and what top Republicans think about the race. 

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Elon Musk isn’t taking disinformation seriously. The owner of X has made the platform a cesspool of fake news, bots, and trolls — seemingly by design. Kori Schake, Rosa Brooks, and Ed Luce join David Rothkopf to discuss the grave consequences of disinformation for the election in November and beyond. 

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In a new book, Bob Woodward reports that Donald Trump sent covid tests to Vladimir Putin at the height of the pandemic, and that after leaving office, Trump had up to seven private phone calls with Putin. This drew a harsh response from Kamala Harris, who pointed out that Trump kowtows to Putin because he aspires to be a dictator himself. Which highlights something important: The direct connection between Trump’s authoritarian aspirations at home and the axis of global autocrats rooting for him to prevail. We talked to international relations professor Nicholas Grossman, who writes on these issues, about all these shadowy links, and whether Harris can highlight all this in the home stretch. 

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In a new interview, Donald Trump unleashed an ugly, crazed rant about Kamala Harris, calling her “low IQ” and “stupid.” And almost no leading journalists took it seriously. Which points to a larger story: Trump regularly targets Harris with vile attacks that are unapologetically misogynist, yet it barely attracts notice anymore. We talked to writer Susan Milligan—who does good work for The New Republic on Trump’s misogyny—about how overtly anti-woman Trump’s strategy has become, and what Harris can do to exploit this in the race’s final days. 

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National security correspondent and HUMINT Substack author Sasha Ingber @SashaIngber joins Marc to cover today’s foreign policy challenges from the Middle East to Europe. Additionally, Sasha discusses her entry into journalism and pivot towards the national security beat, as well as her experiences and pressures as a reporter covering conflict zones. Members will also get to hear an after action report from Sasha’s trip to Ukraine as well as a deeply moving story of veteran suicide after the fall of Kabul. Must listen to episode with a rising star in the national security beat

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On Sunday, The New York Times published an extraordinary piece detailing Donald Trump’s deteriorating mental state, singling out his deranged fabrications and outright fabulism as central to its expose. Meanwhile, Trump held a weekend rally in Pennsylvania where he lied angrily in ugly new ways about the federal response to Hurricane Helene. Can Democrats capitalize on all this in the home stretch? We talked to Democratic strategist Maria Cardona, who suggests new ways to close out this race by highlighting Trump’s profound mental unfitness for the presidency—and depicting his lying about disaster response as fundamentally disqualifying. Listen to this episode here.

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Original air date: August 11, 2023

With the sound defeat of Issue 1 in Ohio, Norm and Kavita discuss whether Democrats can apply the lessons learned to 2024. Also on the agenda are the latest developments with Trump’s documents case in Florida, and whether or not the myriad legal woes will actually help Trump in the next election. Don’t miss it.

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Original air date: October 10, 2023

Saturday, October 7 will likely go down as one of, if not the worst day, in Israel’s history. While Israel was focused on the West Bank and moving toward normalization with Saudi Arabia, Hamas was planning and plotting this attack right under Benjamin Netanyahu’s nose. We discuss the extraordinary events with our experts, Rula Jebreal and Alon Pinkas. Will Bibi survive this attack politically? And how should the United State respond? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and more on this special episode of Deep State Radio.

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AI development will soon be a major component of the global economy. So how can emerging economies keep up with the US and China? AI governance and ethics expert Dr. Chinasa Okolo joins David Rothkopf to discuss why this issue is so critical and how to avoid a global AI gap. 


This material is distributed by TRG Advisory Services, LLC on behalf of the Embassy of the United Arab Emirates in the U.S.. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, DC.

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Special Counsel Jack Smith’s 180-page report, filed on Wednesday, provides damning evidence against Donald Trump which could carry serious legal implications - why is this not the banner headline of every major media outlet? What does this report show, and what ramifications could it have on the election and beyond? Norm and Kavita are back to discuss this and more. Members will also get a discussion of the Harris campaign’s strategy and the VP debate.

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Donald Trump keeps pushing the vile claim that federal officials are withholding disaster aid from GOP areas devastated by Hurricane Helene. This has now backfired, focusing media attention on Trump’s own hyper-politicization of disaster relief as president. To wit: Two former Trump officials told Politico that Trump initially refused to approve disaster aid for California after wildfires in 2018 due to the state’s Democratic lean. We talked to one of those officials—Olivia Troye, a senior homeland security official in the Trump administration and now a leading critic of the former president—about Trump’s disastrous tenure, and what she told is is not pretty. 

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It’s the final countdown for the 2024 Election, and that means it’s time for a check in with our favorite experts to analyze the state of the race. Tom Bonier, Simon Rosenberg, and Tara McGowan join David Rothkopf to clue us in on the Harris campaign’s strategy, what the polls are saying, and how we can help Kamala win it all. 

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At the vice-presidential debate, the CBS News moderators fact-checked one of JD Vance’s lies—and that was all it took to trigger an epic attack on CBS from Donald Trump and his MAGA allies. Which highlights a larger story: The degree to which Trump’s campaign is built on an immense superstructure of endless, shameless lying. Bullying the media into not fact checking Trump and Vance is essential to that project. We talked to Jamison Foser, who writes about the media and the right on his Finding Gravity Substack, about the ways our institutions are capitulating to authoritarian attacks and threats—and what can be done in response.

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The Middle East is at its most dangerous point in decades. With an Israeli retaliation against Iran imminent, what can the US do to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control? Noga Tarnopolsky, Barbara Slavin, and Rosa Brooks join David Rothkopf to assess the administration and what comes next for Israel and the region. 

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With five weeks until Election Day, Donald Trump has decided to win over swing voters by rhapsodizing about police violence, threatening to prosecute anyone who displeases him, and unleashing disgusting insults toward his opponents. His latest? Raging that Tim Walz is a “moron” and “sick.” We talked to A.B. Stoddard, columnist at The Bulwark and author of a new piece suggesting a closing strategy for Kamala Harris, about how Democrats can use Trump’s angry, unhinged eruptions to fashion a winning endgame against him.

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Western North Carolina is enduring full-blown catastrophe. In the wake of Hurricane Helene, towns have been destroyed, roads have been washed out, people are frantically trying to locate loved ones, and dozens have died. Enter Donald Trump, who just declared that the federal government—and Democratic governor Roy Cooper—are deliberately neglecting MAGA parts of the state, and charged that the Biden administration is consciously letting Americans drown. We talked to state Democratic Party chair Anderson Clayton about the horrors that the state is suffering, and about Trump’s ugly reaction to them. 

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On today’s episode of Above Average Intelligence, Marc is joined by longtime friend, award-winning national security journalist, and current justice and intelligence correspondent for NBC News Ken Dilanian. Ken offers insight into both his former roles on the intelligence beat as well as his current experiences covering the DOJ, in addition to his analysis of navigating the fine lines between the media, the government, and foreign interference.

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At a rally in Wisconsin over the weekend, Donald Trump really cranked up the rage and hate speech about immigrants, and viciously savaged Kamala Harris as “mentally impaired.” But this deserves special attention: Trump also attacked Fox News for the mere act of carrying a recent Harris speech about immigration on the network, seething that Fox shouldn’t be “allowed” to do that. We talked to Salon columnist Amanda Marcotte, a skillful interpreter of Trump’s violent threats, about the clear signals that this and other recent Trump utterances are sending about his intention to suppress dissent and persecute MAGA’s enemies during a second term.

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Original air date: August 21, 2023

Maintaining alliances isn’t easy; they must be nurtured on a regular basis, which takes skill and acumen. Yet even with challenges both domestically and internationally, the US’s allies are some of its greatest assets. Since World War 2, the true brilliance of US strategy is to build genuine and sturdy alliances, politically, militarily, and in intelligence, with partners across the globe. Marc is joined by former senior CIA operations officer Jerry O’Shea, a four time station chief, to discuss why alliances are so critically important. Don’t miss it.

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Original air date: August 16, 2023

With yet another indictment against Donald Trump, his 2024 chances have taken another serious blow. David is joined by the host of the Amicus podcast Dahlia Lithwick and political strategist Simon Rosenberg to analyze how the deluge of legal drama will impact the 2024 race and why the Republicans' problems go beyond Trump. Join us.

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Published 2024-09-27

Why the Media So Often Sucks

45 min
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Media coverage of the election hasn’t been the best. Time and time again, the traditional news outlets have failed to provide the necessary information to voters, resulting in a race that seems to be too close for comfort. Journalists and media critics Jeff Jarvis and Dan Froomkin join David Rothkopf to explain where the mainstream media has gone wrong, and what it can do to get back on track. 

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Donald Trump has been quiet about January 6th lately. But this week, he suddenly unleashed an epic rant on social media about Special Counsel Jack Smith, raging about false new claims on the right that the “deep state” deliberately allowed the insurrection to go forward—against Trump’s will. The real cause of Trump’s fury? Smith is set to submit a court filing detailing his evidence of Trump’s alleged January 6th related crimes—some of which may become public. We talked to Politico reporter Kyle Cheney, author of a new report on these machinations, who helps illuminate what new revelations we may soon learn about—and why Trump should worry about them. 

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If Kamala Harris can defeat Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, she almost certainly will win the presidency. It’s must-win for him. Yet the state remains a coin-flip—which is why both candidates campaigned in the state this week. So what is Harris’s path to victory? We talked to Governor Josh Shapiro, who explained why the race is so close—and why he thinks she’s “on her way” to winning there, in part due to concerted communications with non-college voters. Shapiro also responded at length to Trump’s lies about Haitian immigrants living in Pennsylvania, pronouncing them “utter bullshit.”

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Escalating to de-escalate might not be Israel’s goal in Lebanon after all. But as strikes between Israel and Hezbollah continue to intensify, we have to wonder — what is Israel’s goal? Rosa Brooks, Kori Schake, and Ed Luce join David Rothkopf to examine the situation in the Middle East, discuss the results from UNGA, predict the outcome of the Vice Presidential debate, and more.

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The UN’s advisory body on AI released their comprehensive report detailing recommendations to address AI-related risks. Dr. Alondra Nelson, a member of the body, joins David Rothkopf to detail the key takeaways from the report, why international action on artificial intelligence is so critical, and what needs to happen next. 


This material is distributed by TRG Advisory Services, LLC on behalf of the Embassy of the United Arab Emirates in the U.S.. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, DC.

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Donald Trump and his allies have been pushing Nebraska’s GOP-controlled State legislature to change how the state’s electoral votes are allotted, to prevent Kamala Harris from winning the election with just the blue wall states. But Nebraska’s GOP governor just announced that he will not hold a special session to change the rules, dashing Trump’s hopes. How did this happen? We talked to Joe Perticone, who has been covering all this as national political reporter at The Bulwark. He unpacks why Trump couldn’t get this done, what the impact of this will be, and what it all says about the GOP in the age of MAGA.

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Norm and Kavita are back to discuss the past week of events in each presidential campaign. Kamala Harris continues to outpace the GOP and previous Democratic candidates in fundraising, while the Trump campaign continues to make outrageous statements about women and abortion rights. What are the polls telling us about the state of these campaigns as we inch closer to Election Day? And, in the members-only section, what the hell is going on with Mark Robinson? Listen to all this and more here:

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The scandals are getting worse for Mark Robinson, the GOP candidate for governor in North Carolina. After CNN broke the news of his incendiary comments on a pornography message board—including describing himself as a “black Nazi”—much of his staff quit. Now the national GOP has stopped funding his ads. You’ve heard talk about how Robinson’s collapse could help doom Trump in must-win North Carolina. But how exactly would that happen? What would it look like? We talked to Morgan Jackson—chief strategist for Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate—about the state’s deeply interesting demographics, how Kamala Harris can win there, and what could still go wrong.

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On today’s episode of Above Average Intelligence, David Gioe @GioeINT, former CIA officer and current British Academy Global Professor of Intelligence and International Security at King’s College London, joins Marc to discuss the field of intelligence studies and the importance of passing the torch to the next generation. Additionally, David and Marc dive into the growing Russian spy hub in Mexico, the behind-the-scenes of the Anglo-American special intelligence relationship, and how to heal the growing and unfortunate US public distrust of the intelligence community. Listen to all this, and more, here:

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In two bizarre rants over the weekend, Donald Trump openly fumed about female voters, lecturing them about why they should be supporting him and dismissing concerns about GOP abortion bans and all they’ve wrought. Meanwhile, a new NBC News poll shows Kamala Harris leading Trump by 21 points among women. Is Trump even trying to speak to them effectively anymore? We talked to Joan Walsh, national affairs correspondent at The Nation who writes well about the politics of abortion. She explains how Harris’s appeals to female voters really work—and why Trump is alienating them so badly. 

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Original air date: September 25, 2023

As technology rapidly evolves, America’s intelligence community needs to get smarter. David and Marc are joined by the former deputy director of the CIA Michael Morell to break down the shortcomings of our intelligence services and what must be done to meet the security challenges of both today and tomorrow.

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Original air date: October 13, 2023

The escalation in Israel’s war with Hamas would have profound effects on the region and the global community. Kim Ghattas joins Jon and David to predict what could come next in the conflict, what role the rest of the region will play, and how the rest of the world will feel the effects.

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