Breaking Down: Collapse

Insects are at the bottom of the food chain, and entire ecoystems rely on them. As human activity continues to fill the corners of the earth and cause unrelenting climate change, insect populations are being affected. What do we know about the scale of the problem, and what it means for us?

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Birth rates decline for many reasons - both voluntary and involuntary. What are those reasonds, and what does this mean for society and for collapse?

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Many of our scarce resources are known, somewhat mainstream, and fairly obvious. Others, however, are not as apparent. This episode is about the surprisingly urgent need for ethically sourced sand. Peak sand may be reached in the next few decades.

Learn More:

https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/rising-demand-sand-calls-resource-governance

https://www.ecomagazine.com/in-depth/featured-stories/slipping-through-our-fingers-are-we-running-out-of-sand

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2018/jul/01/riddle-of-the-sands-the-truth-behind-stolen-beaches-and-dredged-islands?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other#comment-117685215

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/sand-shortage-the-world-is-running-out-of-a-crucial-commodity.html

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/feb/27/sand-mining-global-environmental-crisis-never-heard

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191108-why-the-world-is-running-out-of-sand

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Kory and Kellan describe the reasons for, and potential outcomes of, a slowing AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation).  And no, it's nothing like The Day After Tomorrow tries to make you believe.

They also briefly discuss jet streams and the effect climate change has on weather patterns.

Learn more:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/25/atlantic-ocean-circulation-at-weakest-in-a-millennium-say-scientists

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/impacts-of-a-weakening-amoc/675136

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/02/25/atlantic-ocean-currents-weakening-amoc-gulf-stream/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/10/29/climate-change-is-doing-some-strange-things-to-the-waters-off-new-england/

https://rapid.ac.uk/background.php

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JC015152

https://www.whoi.edu/press-room/news-release/study-finds-no-direct-link-between-north-atlantic-ocean-currents-sea-level-along-new-england-coast/

https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/jet

https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/weather/2021/02/27/climate-change--not-just-global-warming--but-global--weirding-

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Referring back to episode 4, Kory and Kellan give an update on the scenarios presented in the book "Limits to Growth", with information from updated models, as well as empirical data gained since the original publishing in 1972.

Learn More:

Branderhorst Document

Turner Paper (2012)

The original Limits to Growth (1972)

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Religion can be a touchy subject, especially in reference to collapse. Given that 85% of the world claims some sort of religion, Kory and Kellan felt that it's important to discuss the countless positives and negatives associated with people's beliefs around the world, and how those beliefs relate to collapse.

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Kory and Kellan take a look at geoengineering, and whether or not it can stave off the effects of climate change.

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In a follow up to episode 5 ("Catabolic Collapse"), Kory and Kellan take a deeper look at the concept, specifically by analzying the paper written by John Michael Greer titled "How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse".

Learn more:

"How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse" (PDF)

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Kory and Kellan discuss the rapid increase in plastic pollution and it's potential affects on biodiversity and human health.

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Kellan and Kory break down two important factors of disease: antibiotic resistance and ancient microbes being released from permafrost. 

Learn More:

https://www.mintpressnews.com/coming-antibiotic-resistance-pandemic-could-make-covid-look-like-flu/276526/

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/new-report-by-world-animal-protection-documents-antibiotic-resistance-in-the-environment-near-us-factory-farms-1030319190

About Antibiotic Resistance
https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/about.html#:~:text=Antibiotic%20resistance%20happens%20when%20germs,killed%20and%20continue%20to%20grow.

Antibiotic Resistance Threatens Modern Medicine
https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/pdf/threats-report/Threat-Modern-Medicine-508.pdf

Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria
https://www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au/health/conditionsandtreatments/antibiotic-resistant-bacteria

Biggest Threats and Data
https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest-threats.html

WHO Article: “New Report Calls for Urgent Action to Avert Antimicrobial Resistance Crisis”
https://www.who.int/news/item/29-04-2019-new-report-calls-for-urgent-action-to-avert-antimicrobial-resistance-crisis

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Kellan and Kory discuss the ways in which our soil is being degraded and the potential consequences of reaching a peak in soil availability.

Learn More:

“Why Soil Is Disappearing from Farms”
https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/why-soil-is-disappearing-from-farms/

Soil loss in Midwest farms
https://www.npr.org/2021/02/24/967376880/new-evidence-shows-fertile-soil-gone-from-midwestern-farms

Phosphorus crisis
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/farmers-are-facing-a-phosphorus-crisis-the-solution-starts-with-soil

Farm Tilling
https://www.sterlinglandcompany.com/farm-tilling-till-versus-no-till/#:~:text=Historically%2C%20farmers%20have%20tilled%20their,easier%20to%20plant%20new%20seeds.&text=Tilling%20breaks%20apart%20the%20established,much%20easier%20to%20control%20them.

Haber-Bosch Process
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process

Peak Phosphorus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus#:~:text=According%20to%20some%20researchers%2C%20Earth's,for%20several%20hundreds%20of%20years.

Soil Salinity
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-96190-3_2

Erosion and Global Warming
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-unep-soil/soil-erosion-increasing-global-warming-threat-unep-idUSTRE81C13J20120213

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Kellan and Kory discuss the oft-disputed question of what's to blame for collapse: are there too many people, or are we simply consuming too much?

Population Balance - Podcast/website for ethical ways to reduce overpopulation/overconsumption.

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Kory and Kellan discuss the role of nuclear fission in our energy production and consumption, and whether or not fission provides an answer to our future energy shortages.

Learn More:

What is nuclear fission?
https://www.britannica.com/science/nuclear-fission/Fission-theory

Nuclear fission explainer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pY5HeZpNr8

Nuclear power in France
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Macron-stresses-importance-of-nuclear-energy-for-F#:~:text=According%20to%20World%20Nuclear%20Association,billion%20per%20year%20from%20this.

Pros and Cons of nuclear
https://www.power-technology.com/features/nuclear-power-pros-cons/

Power Plant Construction Costs
https://proest.com/construction/cost-estimates/power-plants/#:~:text=Natural%20gas%20power%20plant%20construction,on%20the%20total%20construction%20costs.

Why nuclear is not the answer
https://www.leonardodicaprio.org/the-7-reasons-why-nuclear-energy-is-not-the-answer-to-solve-climate-change/#:~:text=In%20addition%2C%20it%20creates%20risk,need%20natural%20gas%20for%20backup.

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Kory and Kellan discuss the increasingly important role that firearms play as civil unrest, political tensions, and the delegitimacy of governments increase worldwide.

Learn More:

Mass Shootings 2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2020#:~:text=There%20were%20614%20mass%20shootings,there%20were%20180%20more%20incidents.

Mass Shootings 2021
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2021

Gun Violence Over Time
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/23/2020-shootings/

Deaths by Car Accidents 2020
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2021/03/05/pandemic-travel-traffic-deaths-up-8-2020-despite-driving-less/4590942001/#:~:text=The%20nonprofit%20National%20Safety%20Council,first%20jump%20in%20four%20years.

Gun Purchases 2020
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2021/02/10/this-is-how-many-guns-were-sold-in-all-50-states/43371461/

Guns in the US
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41488081
https://news.gallup.com/poll/264932/percentage-americans-own-guns.aspx
https://www.statista.com/statistics/186935/deaths-by-firearm-related-injuries-in-the-us-since-1970/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/249740/percentage-of-households-in-the-united-states-owning-a-firearm/
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/pictures/gun-ownership-rates-by-state/

Gun Laws
https://youtu.be/pXnycRj1KWs

Mapping Police Violence
https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/

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Perhaps one of the least talked about (but one of the most important) aspects of ecological and environmental collapse: our oceans. From ocean acidification and dead zones to rising temperatures and overfishing, there are multiple threats to marine life. The delicate ocean ecosystems are dissolving before our eyes, with unprecedented consequences to our societies.

Dead Zones
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/deadzone.html

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/dead-zones-in-our-oceans-have-increased-dramatically-since-1950-and-we-re-to-blame/

Ocean Acidification
https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/ocean-acidification#:~:text=The%20ocean%20absorbs%20about%2030,by%20the%20ocean%20also%20increases

https://www.epa.gov/ocean-acidification/understanding-science-ocean-and-coastal-acidification#:~:text=Today%2C%20average%20ocean%20pH%20is,ten%2Dfold%20increase%20in%20acidity

Pteropod Shell Dissolution
https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1635

Threats to Phytoplankton
https://psmag.com/environment/global-warming-is-putting-phytoplankton-in-danger

Oceanic c02 Absorption
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/oceans-do-us-a-huge-service-by-absorbing-nearly-a-third-of-global-co2-emissions-but-at-what-cost#:~:text=So%20far%2C%20the%20researchers%20found,as%20atmospheric%20levels%20have%20increased.&text=%22At%20some%20point%20the%20ability,scientist%20Jeremy%20Mathis%20told%20Mashable

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Not every aspect of collapse has to be negative.  In this episode Kory and Kellan discuss the potential positives to collapse, as a way to see the best in the worst of situations.

Links:

How Trauma can Change you for the Better:
https://time.com/3967885/how-trauma-can-change-you-for-the-better/

The positive Legacy of Trauma:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8827649/

What Good can Come of Trauma?
https://www.research.va.gov/currents/1215-4.cfm

Tribe - Sebastian Junger
http://www.sebastianjunger.com/tribe-by-sebastian-junger

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In this episode, Kellan and Kory discuss the impact and the implications of the events of the last 18 months. From record wildfires and hurricanes to civil unrest, and economic volatility to global pandemics, it's clear that we are witnessing collapse all around us.

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In this episode Kory and Kellan review the new book by Bill Gates "How to Avoid a Climate Disaster" through an in-depth discussion of the validity of the points made and the credibility of the author.

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Desh Amila gives a fascinating perspective on what it's like growing up in a country torn by civil war, as well as the dangers of our hyperpolarized political environment. You can check out his new documentary, "Better Left Unsaid", at www.betterleftunsaidfilm.com

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In this episode we discuss water shortages, water infrastructure, and the current and potential conflicts arising from inadequate access.

Learn More:

https://www.watercalculator.org/footprint/foods-big-water-footprint/

https://www.nationalgeographic.org/article/freshwater-resources/

https://ourworldindata.org/water-use-stress#:~:text=Globally%2C%20approximately%2019%20percent%20of,%2C%20industrial%20and%20domestic%20uses).

https://www.usbr.gov/mp/arwec/water-facts-ww-water-sup.html

https://www.amazon.com/Rivers-Fully-Revised-Updated-Water/dp/0807054895

https://www.worldwater.org/conflict/list/

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Kellan and Kory discuss the vulnerabilities of the global supply chain, and the potential results of supply chain failure.

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We're honored to have JMG join us on this episode to discuss his views on collapse.

For more on John Michael Greer:

His main blog is here: https://www.ecosophia.net/

His Dreamwidth journal is here: https://ecosophia.dreamwidth.org/

You can buy his books directly from Bookshop here: https://bookshop.org/shop/jmg

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In this episode we discuss renewable electricity and whether or not it can save us from falling off the energy cliff.

https://www.businessinsider.com/this-is-the-potential-of-solar-power-2015-9#:~:text=Each%20hour%20430%20quintillion%20Joules,Joules%20of%20electricity%20in%202013.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-performance-and-efficiency

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.php

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We discuss some of the most prevalent ideas of what life will look like after collapse.

"How to Enjoy the End of the World" - Sid Smith

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Most major factors influencing collapse can be tied back, directly or indirectly, to the moral decline of society. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/collapsing-levels-trust-are-devastating-america/616581/

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Historically, an increasing wealth gap has always been a sign of empires in decline. Will this time be any different? Kory and Kellan dive into what our growing wealth disparity means for the US and the world.

Video on wealth disparity (referenced in this episode)

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In this episode we discuss the possible consequences of climate change and how they will affect daily life.

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In this episode Kory and Kellan discuss the consequences of echo chambers in today's political environment.

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Accepting collapse and take a toll on mental health. Kellan introduces some ways to cope with the reaility of collapse and making the best of our situations.

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Kellan and Kory discuss the role that modern agriculture plays in eventual societal collapse

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In this episode Kellan and I discuss some thoughts on how to get started preparing for collapse. 

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Kellan and Kory discuss the proper expectations and philosophy around preparing for collapse, and how they may differ from mainstream ideas of "prepping".

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This week Kellan takes the wheel and talks about specific trends in consumerism that have caused the modern western world to give up our independence in exchange for convenience.

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In this episode Kellan and I discuss feedback loops related to climate change, what a BOE is, and how it will affect us.

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In this episode Kellan asks the questions he's had on his mind throughout our conversations. 

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In this episode we discuss the major impacts of climate change and its role in collapse.

Learn More:

On Ice Free Arctic 2035

On “Faster Than Expected” Permafrost Melt

“Faster Than Expected” Examples

Why 1.5 isn’t going to happen

When could we see a 2 degree warmer world?

The Difference Between 1.5 and 2 Degreees

Air Pollution Deaths at 2 Degrees vs 1.5 Degrees

How many die annually from air polution?

What could 2050 look like? (1)

What could 2050 look like? (2)

California Wildfires - 2020

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Politicians have power because we have given it to them. What happens when the people decide that power is no longer legitimate?

Learn More:

On Corruption

On Voting

Breaking the Two Party System

Income Inequality

"The Collapse of Complex Societies" - Joseph Tainter 

The French Revolution

“Dark Age America" - John Michael Greer

On Essential Workers

What Causes Revolutions?

"Medellin, a city caught between love and hatred for Pablo Escobar"

Systemic Police Brutality and its Costs in the United States

On Poverty in the USA

Can Netflix’s Stock Double in 2020?

On Bread and Circuses

How to Understand Power

“It Could Happen Here" - Robert Evans

“How the Arab Spring Started and How it Affected the World”

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The massive social experiment that is our financial system is truly understood by few. This episode details how we are practically victims of history's largest Ponzi scheme. How long will the con last?

Learn More:

The Crash Course (Full Course)

The Crash Course (Short Version)

Fractional Reserve Banking

How does the Federal Reserve create money?

Money in Circulation

US Debt Clock

Zimbabwe Hyperinflation

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In this episode we discuss one of the mechanisms by which societal collapse happens over time, and what it looks like for every-day people.

Sources:

How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse - John Michael Greer

Dark Age America - John Michael Greer

GDP Growth

Infrastructure Report Card

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In this episode we discuss the concept of overshoot, and the consequences it has on society and our ecosystem. We also discuss the book Limits to Growth, which is based around computer modeling done at MIT to discover the fate of our society in the next 50 years. 

Learn More:

Limits to Growth PDF

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Energy fuels our lives. So why have we risked so much by devouring energy that can't be replaced and is unsustainable? Every wildfire hits a peak where it burns at maximum heat and covers the largest area, before it dies down due to insufficient fuel sources. Our society, also at its peak, must eventually face the same decline.

Learn More:

Energy Slave - Comic
Energy Slaves
A Short History of Energy
Energy and Human Evolution
What is Oil Used For?
Jevon's Paradox
Why Renewables Can't Save the Planet
EROEI
Peak Oil

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The complex state of our society makes us especially vulnerable to collapse. As a result of building this system, we each rely on it to keep us alive and have therefore lost our independence.

In this episode we answer the question of what it means to be complex, and why it is so dangerous.

Timeline of Human Technological Advancement

What Makes a Society Complex?

Diminishing Returns of Technological Advancement

EMP Report

Coronavirus and the Supply Chain

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What is collapse? This episode introduces the topic of the podcast, establishing a foundation for the conversation moving forward. 
Is it a conspiracy? Is it a certainity, or are we talking about a one-off chance? Will it happen during our life time? These questions and more answered in this episode.

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