Odd Lots

The past couple months have seen the return of volatility in markets. On this edition of Odd Lots, we speak to Chris Cole, the founder of Artemis Capital Management and a long-time watcher of volatility. Cole has argued that a lot of the investment strategies we take for granted in markets essentially amount to a giant bet that volatility will remain low. So what happens when vol starts to come back? 

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With assets like stocks and bonds, there are clear techniques you can use to value them. But what about currencies? They don't produce cash flows. They don't offer any particular claim on assets. They're all priced relative to other currencies. So how do you go about determining their value? 

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Paul Volcker is widely-regarded as single-handedly halting a period of severe inflation in the U.S. during the late 1970s and early 1980s. But the former chairmen of the Federal Reserve’s reputation wasn't always so secure. So how does he view his legacy? Christine Harper, the editor of Bloomberg Markets, spent two years working with Volcker to co-author his autobiography, “Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government.” 

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For years, a common mantra among corporate executives has been that "the blockchain," the technology underlying Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, is where the real value lies in the future. But on this week's episode of Odd Lots, we speak to Angus Champion de Crespigny, who formerly advised companies on how to use blockchain technology. He now believes that ultimately it won't get them anywhere. 

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So-called "unicorns" have become household names in recent years. Multi-billion dollar companies like AirBNB, Uber, and WeWork have become known for phenomenal growth, extraordinary valuations, and a general dearth of profits. That means these companies have been reliant on accommodative financial conditions to maintain their growth. So how might this all come to an end? 

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What’s the most sure-fire way to get a flight upgrade? How can you find the best, secret local restaurants by asking just one question? What's the first thing you should do when you get into a hotel room? On Bloomberg's new podcast Travel Genius, we'll give you those answers—and plenty more—as hosts Nikki Ekstein and Mark Ellwood quiz the world’s most experienced globetrotters for their tried-and-true travel hacks. Listen weekly, and even your work trips will go from a necessary evil to an expert art form. Plus, you'll be padding out your bucket list with dreams of amazing future vacations. 

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If there's one person associated with the term "Rogue Trader" it's Nick Leeson, who singlehandedly brought down Barings Bank in the early 90s, following a series of efforts to cover up bad trades. After the collapse of the bank, he spent time in a Singapore prison. On this week's podcast, we talk to Nick about the experience, what he learned, and how he managed to rebuild his life.

Correction: Corrects the spelling of Barings Bank in the description of the podcast.

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Where does a medical cure come from? 100 years ago, it wasn't uncommon for scientists to test medicines by taking a dose themselves. As medical technologies get cheaper and more accessible, patients and DIY tinkerers are trying something similar—and mainstream medicine is racing to catch up. Prognosis explores the leading edge of medical advances, and asks who gets—or should get—access to them. We look at how innovation happens, when it fails, and what it means to the people with a disease trying to feel better, live longer, or avoid death.

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Eurodollars have nothing to do with the euro-dollar exchange rate. Instead, they're effectively a source of dollars that operates outside the control of the U.S. Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra, has a theory that recent market volatility might have its roots in some eurodollar drama. 

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Bloomberg’s head of economics Stephanie Flanders calls on Bloomberg's worldwide network of reporters and expert commentators to cast a fresh eye on looming challenges for the world economy which affect us all.

This 6 part podcast combines on the ground reporting with expert discussion on the future of cities, finance and technology, trade, global governance and making growth more inclusive. It's the start of a global conversation on how to confront these issues which will continue in Singapore in early November, when around 400 top business leaders and thinkers from across the globe will gather in Singapore for the first New Economy Forum.

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China has a plan for how it wants to transform into a modern economy. But the future of China’s economy is complicated both by internal factors like debt-fueled growth, as well as external challenges like a potentially drawn out trade war with the U.S. On this week’s Odd Lots, George Magnus, author of “Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy,” explores these pressures and more. 

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The creation story of the first exchange-traded fund is actually the best way to understand how they work. And it's not just educational, it's entertaining. Like the PC and the MP3, the story of the creation of SPY -- which turned 30 this year -- is full of characters, twists and turns, and subplots. In the end, the product launched an industry that's reshaping not just investing but the entire financial ecosystem. This six-episode miniseries will weave together interviews with the founding fathers and other key players that help investors better understand the ETF and how we got here.

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Marijuana stocks have been on a tear recently, as investors bet on the explosion of a brand new, legalizing market. But, how should investors actually go about trying to figure out which companies are well run and in a position to profit from this mark?

*Editor's note: Our guest Craig Wiggins misidentified the company "Aurora" as building to scale around 14:54 in the episode. The correct company is Aphria.

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A little over two years ago, Saudi Arabia revealed plans to IPO part of its huge state-owned national oil company. The listing would have been the largest in history and a centerpiece of the Kingdom's efforts to reduce its reliance on oil income and open its economy to the wider world. But in recent weeks, there've been reports that the IPO has been put on ice. So what does this mean for Saudi Arabia's future?

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David Barse was the CEO of Third Avenue Management when one of its credit funds melted down in late 2015. The collapse of the fund touched off a significant debate about market structure, and the appropriate way to invest in illiquid, distressed securities. On this week's episode, we talk to Barse about what he learned from the experience, and how he's investing today.

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What if there were a bank that could never experience a run? And furthermore, what if it paid higher interest rates on deposits than what you could get at other banks? That sounds pretty good, right? Well it might be possible. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we talk with Jamie McAndrews, the co-founder and CEO of The Narrow Bank. 

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Sixty percent in equities/40 percent in bonds is a popular, general approach to structuring a diversified portfolio. In theory, when times are good, your stocks go up, and when times are bad, your bonds go up. But what if the correlation between bonds and stocks changes? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Farouk Jivraj, head of Investment Strategies Research at Barclays, about cross-asset correlations and what causes them to change over time. 

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Companies have all kinds of discretion in how they recognize revenue and costs. Some of this is legit. Some of this is fraud. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Howard Schilit, an expert in forensic accounting and the author of “Financial Shenanigans: How To Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports.”

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There's been an intense debate about what Tesla CEO Elon Musk meant when he tweeted in early August that he was taking the company private and that funding was "secured.” Bloomberg Opinion writer Matt Levine discusses how securities regulators might view such a comment.

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Joe Weisenthal is a co-host of the Odd Lots podcast. He also once launched his own cryptocurrency called Stalwartbucks. On this week's episode, we speak with Guan Yang, who along with Weisenthal helped launch Stalwartbucks in the early weeks of 2014. We talk about how they did it, what they learned, and why, sadly, it ultimately failed. 

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Are you confused about the crisis in Turkey? Today's episode will get you cleared up. This week on Odd Lots, we spoke to Paul McNamara, an investment manager at GAM Investments, and a long-term veteran of the emerging markets world. He explained the mechanics of the Turkish currency plunge, and what aspects of the turmoil are unique or similar to other emerging markets crises that he's seen in his career.

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Open any financial publication and you'll see ads for investment products: exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, and the like. Those ads can tell you a lot about what investors are currently thinking and feeling about the market. But did you ever wonder how Wall Street came to be advertising these prepackaged products? On this edition of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Eric Weiner, who leads ETF coverage at Bloomberg and also wrote a book on the history of Wall Street. We talk about the first ever modern advertisement for market investing, a 1948 ad in the New York Times, and how Charles Merrill applied grocery store economics to financial brokerages.

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Srinivas Thiruvadanthai is the Director of Research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, and one of the most interesting commentators on markets and the economy. He's also an economist who fits into the post-Keynesian school of thought. The post-Keynesians -- a group that has a growing following -- argue that the economy is not self-correcting, that central banks have limited influence on the economy or inflation, and that large government debts can be a stabilizing force. In our conversation, he explains his world view and how he uses it to interpret markets right now. 

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Here's some good news for investors: If you've ever made a disastrous trade, you're not alone. All of the greats have made horrible moves as well. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Michael Batnick, the director of research at Ritholtz Wealth Management, and the author of a new book 'Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments.' We talk about great errors from the likes of Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, Jesse Livermore and many others. In addition to going through their blunders, Batnick explains some basic lessons that investors can take away from these going forward in their own money moves.

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If you want to understand how the human body works, you can't just look at healthy humans. You need to examine the ill, so you can see how the body breaks down and where its weak spots are. And so if you want to understand how business works, it makes sense to look at financial fraud. After all, financial fraudsters work by getting to know a business really well, in order to take advantage of how it operates. That's the gist of our discussion this week with Dan Davies, the author of "Lying for Money: How Legendary Frauds Reveal the Workings of Our World." In our conversation, Davies shares with us his favorite fraud of all time, what all frauds have in common, and what people can do to avoid them. 

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For years, it was pretty quiet in markets. Stocks kept making new highs and volatility drifted to fresh lows. That's changed in recent months and there's now plenty to keep investors busy, including fears of a trade war and signs that the economy be nearing the end of its cycle. On this week's episode of the podcast, we speak with Peter Borish, a veteran investor and trader (and former Odd Lots guest), who is currently chief strategist at the Quad Group. He talks about how he approaches trading in the current environment and the indicators that he tracks in order to understand what the market is trying to tell us.  

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Thanks to the tax cuts, the U.S. deficit is expected to surge again. And of course that's brought greater attention to the government's semi-regular Treasury auctions. But the government borrowing money isn't like a household borrowing money, and analogies between the two can be misleading. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Brian Romanchuk, the author of BondEconomics.com and a long time financial industry veteran, about what's actually happening when the government taps the debt market. 

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Everyone knows that online advertising pays for a massive chunk of the internet that people know and love, whether it's social networking sites, news, photo sharing apps, or anything else. But how do the ads get delivered to your desktop or phone? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Afsheen Bigdeli, an engineer who works on online ad platforms about how every time you see an ad it's the result of a virtually instantaneous online auction in which the seller of ad inventory (a publisher) and a buyer of ad inventory meet at an exchange, not totally unlike exchanges used for financial markets. It turns out there's a lot we can learn about financial market structure based on these rapid transactions. 

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Earlier this year, markets were spooked by blow-ups in a number of volatility-linked products. But dealing with volatility is the foundation of risk management on Wall Street and there's a particular model that's become pervasive among big investors and banks -- so-called Value-at-Risk (VaR) models seek to gauge how much a portfolio might gain or lose based on historic price movements. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak to one of the original creators of VaR. Till Guldimann explains how he came up with the model while at JPMorgan, plus how it works, its limitations, how it can be gamed, and what he thinks of the volatility landscape now. 

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A pivotal moment in U.S. political history is when CNBC's Rick Santelli went on a gigantic rant against Obama's stimulus programs while on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade. The rant is credited by some as having helped galvanize the Tea Party movement, which rapidly became highly influential within the Republican party. Standing next to Santelli was a floor trader, Eric Wilkinson, who joined along in the rant, and become a player in his own right in the story. On this week's episode, we talk to Wilkinson about his background, the day of the rant, and how a conversation that he had had earlier that morning with Santelli influenced that moment.  

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Longtime market analyst Ed Yardeni came up with the term "Bond Vigilantes" to describe the way bond market participants can punish governments who run economically irresponsible policies. When Yardeni used it in the 80s, it referred to US fiscal policy that was thought to be inflationary. Now the bond vigilantes are back, but this time they're in Italy. On this week's podcast, Yardeni explains the history of the term, what's going on now, and how interest rates can be used to model stock market valuations.  

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When you're eating a chocolate bar, there's a good chance you're not thinking about the complex commodity market that allows cocoa beans to make it into a tasty snack. But obviously cocoa trading is a huge business. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak to professor Kristy Leissle, the author of the book “Cocoa,” about how this commodity market really works. She explains to us where it's grown, how pricing's determined, and the role of the major confectionery buyers in this market. 

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For years, big banks, hedge funds and other investment firms took part in an epic scavenger hunt in New York. Inspired by the 1980 movie, “Midnight Madness,” teams of quants and traders would stay out all night competing to figure out some of the world's hardest puzzles. This year, the event was held for the first time in London, where Odd Lots joined a team from Goldman Sachs to compete for the prestigious title. In this episode, find out what it's like to actually compete in the fiendishly difficult experience that is Midnight Madness. 

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The recent trade tensions between the Trump administration and China has shone a light on the country's ambitions to become a technology powerhouse, as one of the complaints is that China unfairly extracts intellectual property from multinationals entering that market. But what, specifically, is China's long-term plan? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Dan Wang, a technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics about the the Made In China 2025 initiative, which seeks to turn the country into a tech leader (in areas like semiconductors, medical equipment, clean energy, and wide-body aircraft) by the year 2025. Dan explains how the program works, where it's succeeding, where it's struggling, and what the ramifications are for the rest of the world. 

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When Bitcoin first began generating headlines, there were some who thought the cryptocurrency was a fraud and others who thought it was the next big thing. Greg King, CEO of Rex Shares LLC, was one of the latter. Like the Winklevoss twins, he set out to create an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that would allow people to invest in Bitcoin in a new way. But many years later, the U.S. securities watchdog hasn't approved such plans. On this edition of the Odd Lots podcast, we use the Bitcoin example and King's experience to explain the inner workings of ETFs. 

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It’s a big, expensive, global mystery. Why do women still make less money—a lot less—than men? In the US, the average woman makes 80 cents to every dollar a man makes. Launching May 9, the Pay Check is an in-depth investigation into what that 20 percent difference looks like. In this miniseries we'll show you how the gender pay gap plays out in real life. We'll hear from Lily Ledbetter, Mo’Nique, and a lot of other women who weren’t happy to be paid less. We'll find out what happens when a whole country tries to tackle the pay gap. And we'll talk to some women who are taking things into their own hands.

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Everybody probably has some vague idea of what the paparazzi do. They ride around on motorcycles, hounding celebrities, and hopefully snapping photos of them in embarrassing situations. But how do the business and economics really work? How do the photographers actually get paid? Eddie van der Walt, a Bloomberg reporter who once was a paparazzo, joins us on this week’s Odd Lots to help answer those questions.

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The Kentucky Derby is coming up in early May, and it's time to get excited. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we talk to Bloomberg editor David Papadopoulos, who in addition to his day job has been betting on horses for a long time. In our discussion, he talked about great gambling scores, where brilliant bettors and cheaters took down gigantic purses by finding ways to beat the odds. He also gave us his take on the challenges of betting on the Derby and other races.

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When it comes to millennials, the media has certain tropes that it likes to go back to. Millennials love avocados. Millennials aren't into homebuying. Millennials are always killing off this or that product or service. But what if the consumption lens is the totally wrong way to talk about this generation? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Malcolm Harris, the author of "Kids These Days: Human Capital and the Making of Millennials," about what he says is a more useful frame for understanding the economic stresses millennials face.

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We've been nominated for a Webby Award in the business podcast category, and we need the support of our listeners to help us win. Go online to https://www.webbyawards.com/ and vote now. And thanks for listening!

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By now, everyone's heard of ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings) where companies issue their own currency-like tokens. They boomed massively in 2017, alongside the whole cryptocurrency craze. But very few people really get what they are, and how they fit into the regulatory landscape. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Peter van Valkenburgh, the director of research at Coin Center, who explains why you have to go back to a 1946 case involving a Florida orange grower to understand how regulators see these newfangled financial instruments. 

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Recent threats to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, coupled with China's own retaliatory announcements have raised the prospects of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies. But what is a trade war, and what would be the economic ramifications if there were one? Brad Setser, the Steven A. Tananbaum senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, joins us on this week’s Odd Lots to help answer those questions. Brad has been writing about trade issues for many years, and explains what exactly we're seeing now, how the current trade actions differ from standard moves on trade, and where ultimately all these actions might go. 

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A lot of people would probably agree that there's something wrong with much of the traditional advice in how to lose weight -- or at least how it's implemented. The economist Miles Kimball has lost weight using a different approach. He's increased his fat intake and gone for long stretches of time without eating anything at all. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, Kimball, a prolific blogger and professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, explains what got him interested in fasting, obesity research, and the similarities between weight loss and fighting inflation. 

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Remember LIBOR? The London Interbank Offered Rate measures the cost of money when banks borrow from each other. It famously blew out during the financial crisis, but for a long time since then it's been dormant. Only lately it's started to creep higher again. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we talk to Scott Peng, the founder, CEO and CIO of Advocate Capital Management, who warned in early 2008 that there was something fishy about the way the measure was being priced. In the post-crisis period, it was discovered that the rate -- which helps price trillions of dollars worth of other assets -- was being gamed or manipulated by traders. Peng walks us through the history of the rate, what it's telling us now, and what may ultimately replace it. 

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These days, when you think of trading, you think of people sitting at a desk with a bunch of monitors, watching charts, and maybe making decisions based on algorithmic signals. Of course if you imagine a trader a few decades ago, you think of someone in a big open pit shouting loudly and writing things down on actual physical pieces of paper. So what was that scene really like? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Cameron Crise, a Bloomberg macro strategist, who used to trade currency options in the pits in Chicago during the early 1990s. We talk about how he got there, some of the funniest moments he experienced, and how the trading world has evolved since then. 

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For years, nobody seemed particularly concerned about inflation. Outside of a few blips, in the wake of the financial crisis, people have become accustomed to low inflation, and central banks providing ample stimulus to the economy. But suddenly that's changing. There seem to be hints that the macro backdrop is shifting, and that has investors on edge. So why the shift and what's going on? On this week's Odd Lots, we speak with Michael Ashton of Enduring Investments, a specialist in analyzing the inflation data, and helping clients trade on it. He offers his theory of what drives inflation, and where it's going to go next.

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In theory, people should want to know accurate facts about the state of the world. In practice, it's not so simple. Because of the way we evolved, and how our brains work, there are often things that we prioritize above the truth (such as fitting in with some tribal identity). On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with NYU professor Jay Van Bavel, about a new paper he co-authored titled "The Partisan Brain: An Identity-Based Model of Political Belief." It explains how political ideology leads people to have distorted views of the world, and though this paper is specifically about politics, it contains important lessons for people in the market, as they seek to overcome the biases that make them bad traders and investors. 

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Decrypted returns on March 6th with a brand new season. Here's a sneak peek of what's in store. We'll be releasing new episodes every Tuesday starting next week. 

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In the 1970s, NYC teetered on the verge of bankruptcy. This crisis lead to the dismantling of the city's generous social safety net. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Kim Phillips-Fein, historian and author of "Fear City: New York's Fiscal Crisis and the Rise of Austerity Politics." She walks us through what happened then, and what lessons it holds for fiscal politics today. 

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In recent years, one of the easiest ways to make money in this market has been to bet on low volatility. Up until recently, markets have been exceptionally tranquil, and trades predicated on that tranquility continuing have made a fortune. But two of the most popular vehicles for making that trade, XIV and SVXY got obliterated in one day in early February. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Pravit Chintawongvanich, the head of Derivatives Strategy at Macro Risk Advisors about the episode. He explains what the short volatility trade was, how specifically these funds operated, and how they ultimately became victims of their own success. 

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