Odd Lots

The price of gold is basically at record highs. But what is it about gold that people love so much? Why have people always craved a metal that has no real industrial uses? And what does owning or wearing gold represent? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Maksud Agadjani, the founder of TraxNYC, a jewelry store based in NYC's Diamond District. You may recognize Maksud from the movie Uncut Gems, where he played a character similar to himself, working in the fast-moving world of precious metals, rare stones, and flashy jewelry. We talked to him about the persistent demand for gold and why people are so into it right now.

Read more: Gold’s Price Surge Drives Narcos Into Illegal Mining in the Amazon

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We all know that the Federal Reserve tries to stabilize the economy by raising or cutting interest rates to balance inflation and unemployment. But the central bank’s mandate actually goes beyond monetary policy. The Fed is also responsible for reviewing and distributing billions of dollars in cash to banks all over the US. In this episode, we go deep inside the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to see how physical money actually gets moved around. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is our guide for the tour, and you’ll hear how the central bank gets its cash, how it checks it for authenticity and condition, and how it gets currency to where it needs to be.

Read more: Fed’s Goolsbee Sees Uncertainty Driving Shallower Rate-Cut Path

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The Trump administration has come into office with big ambitions to lower the size of the US deficit. So far, a number of small items have been identified as possible waste. But to meaningfully bend the curve on spending, there's widespread agreement that we'd have to look at things like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and defense. This is hard stuff to cut and it's something that governments around the world have long struggled with. How do you pull back on a prior commitment that your constituency has come to expect? In this episode of the podcast, we speak with Firtz Bartel, an assistant professor of international affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M. He is also the author of the recent book The Triumph of Broken Promises, which examines the simultaneous economic crisis in the US, UK, and Soviet Union during the 1970s, and how each country was forced economically to essentially "break promises." We talk about what it takes politically to maintain domestic credibility for any government while undergoing such wrenching choices, and why some systems are better suited for it than others.

Read More:
Trump Tax Cuts’ Cost Estimated at $5 Trillion to $11 Trillion
Judge Temporarily Halts Trump, Musk Federal Worker ‘Buyout’

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There's a pretty widespread recognition that the EU is facing a bunch of economic challenges right now. Growth has been slowing and, as in many places, there's been post-pandemic inflation. But there are other issues too, including a sense that Europe is falling behind when it comes to key technologies like AI and semiconductors. There's also an ongoing energy crisis and the recent threat of tariffs from the US. So how is the European Central Bank evaluating and responding to these cyclical and structural challenges? How do one-off risks affect the direction of monetary policy? We speak with Philip Lane, chief economist at the ECB, about how the central bank is thinking about all these things.

Read More:
Trump’s Naughty List Could Put EU Cars, Machinery in Tariff Crosshairs
ECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlines

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This week, we saw shares of software maker Palantir soar after reporting earnings and describing demand for AI as being "untamed." But what does Palantir do, and what do they actually sell to the federal government? More importantly, how does the government actually spend money on things related to security and national defense? Last year, Palantir's CTO Shyam Sankar published a document called "The Defense Reformation," containing 18 theses about arms procurement and how it should be changed. We talk to him about the history of US defense spending, and his vision for creating a more competitive, advanced environment for the US defense sector.

Read More:
Palantir Jumps Most in Year As ‘Untamed’ Demand Bolsters Outlook
Trump’s Gaza Takeover Gets Israeli Approval, Global Scorn

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Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have gained access to a unit within the Treasury Department called the Bureau of Fiscal Service. But what does this unit actually do? How critical of a role does it play in the operations of government, and potentially, financial markets? On this episode, we speak with Nathan Tankus, the author of the Notes On The Crises newsletter. He explains both the technical aspect of this office, as well as the legal questions surrounding impoundment and the ability of the executive branch to cut off payments that have been previously authorized by Congress. We also talk about the operational risks and the potential disaster scenario should this system — which has been built in COBOL over decades — go down.

Read More: US Treasury Brings In Two Members From Musk’s DOGE Team

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Over the weekend, President Trump announced that he was following through with his plan for aggressive tariffs. Imports from Canada and Mexico will now be hit with a 25% tariff, while China will get a 10% tariff. Although aggressive action was promised during the campaign, the news still rattled global financial markets, sending futures tumbling and the dollar spiking. Then, on Monday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that after a discussion with Trump, the tariffs aimed at her country would be delayed by a month. Meanwhile, more talks with Canada and China are expected. So what exactly are the economics of such tariffs? Are they inflationary? Who pays for them? And what are the implications of these ongoing threats? On this episode, we speak with Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, who answers all of our questions on the still developing news and how things might play out.

Read More: How Trump’s Tariffs Aim a Wrecking Ball at the Economy of the Americas

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Marko Kolanovic was one of the biggest names in markets, earning the nickname 'Gandalf' for some eerily prescient calls over the years. But last July he left his role as JPMorgan's chief global market strategist and co-head of global research, after missing out on a pretty epic rally. Since then, stocks have climbed higher with valuations increasingly stretched. So what does Marko think of the market now? In this episode we talk about his outlook the market, the impact of AI including the new DeepSeek model out of China, plus his own research and analysis techniques.

Read more: Kolanovic on the Canary in the Coal Mine for Higher Energy Prices

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Everyone knows by now that MicroStrategy looks a lot like a giant Bitcoin ETF. Its founder, Michael Saylor, is a huge supporter of the cryptocurrency and his company has been snapping up billions of dollars worth of the coins. The strategy has so far proved successful. In fact, MicroStrategy is trading at a market cap that's worth more than the value of its entire Bitcoin portfolio. How does this happen? And how long can it keep going? In this episode, we speak with Bloomberg Opinion's Matt Levine. We talk to him about how MicroStrategy has created a sort of "perpetual motion machine" of investment and how the strategy is starting to expand to other companies, too.

Money Stuff: Crypto Perpetual Motion Machines

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One of the primary drivers of elevated inflation — and the high cost of living in general — is the price of shelter. Whether you're buying or renting, housing is very expensive. Thankfully, over the last year, some of the increases we've seen in rent prices have slowed significantly, and we're not too far away from the pre-Covid pace. The bad news is that this might not last. A confluence of factors is coming together that may cause yet another shock to housing affordability. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lee Everett, the head of research and strategy at the multi-family operator Cortland. He talks about how the increase in interest rates caused new development of apartment buildings to plunge, meaning supply will be increasingly scarce again in 2026. Then add in deportations of construction labor, soaring insurance costs, plus industry consolidation, and you have the recipe for another big shock to housing affordability coming quickly down the pike.

Read More:
LA’s Backyard-Home Boom Offers Wildfire-Hit Residents New Option
US Housing Starts Top All Forecasts on Multifamily Construction

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On Monday, the stock market tanked, seemingly in reaction to the emergence of DeepSeek, an open source AI model developed in China. Nvidia, the semiconductor giant that has been the largest winner of the AI boom, erased $589 billion in market cap, for the biggest one-day wipeout in US stock-market history. Other chipmakers and big tech giants also swooned. So how did DeepSeek do it? Is it a big threat to the American AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic? What does this say about export restrictions on US chips? On this special emergency session of the podcast, we spoke with Zvi Mowshowitz, an AI expert who authors the excellent Substack, Don’t Worry About the Vase. He answered all our questions and more to help understand what it means.

Read more: 
AI-Fueled Stock Rally Dealt $1 Trillion Blow by Chinese Upstart
World’s Richest People Lose $108 Billion After DeepSeek Selloff

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The run-up in Big Tech stocks and all the hype over AI has put a bunch of investors on "bubble watch." One of those is Howard Marks, the co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital Management. Howard is one of the most famous credit investors in the world, but he has experience in stock market bubbles too. Back in early 2000 — right before the Nasdaq peaked — he pointed out the frothiness in equities in a famous note titled "Bubble.com." So how does he actually spot a market bubble? How does a bubble differ from a bull run? And what is he seeing right now? We chat with Howard about all these things, including his experiences both in 2000 and during the 2008 subprime crisis.

Read More: Can Howard Marks Spot a Stock Bubble Twice?

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There's a lot of talk right now about concentration risk in US equities. For instance, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 currently account for 38% of the total index, compared to just 17.5% a decade ago. And all the big winners have been tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, Meta, etc., prompting questions about whether investors are getting overly-enthused about AI. For some, it's also bringing back memories of the dotcom bubble. So just how concentrated is the US stock market right now? What exactly is "concentration risk" anyway? What does this trend say about the power of benchmark index providers like S&P? And -- crucially -- are market participants doing anything about it? In this episode we speak with Kevin Muir, a.k.a. the Macro Tourist, about why he thinks the market is now at "peak concentration," and what could change to reduce Big Tech's dominance.

Read more: Index Providers Rule the World—For Now, at Least 
Nvidia and Five Tech Giants Now Command 30% of the S&P 500 Index

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In theory, all of this AI spending has to deliver some kind of return. Companies (or other end users) will have to get tangible value from its outputs in order to justify the billions spent on research, chips, energy, and more. So what's actually happening at the corporate level? On this episode, we speak with Eric Glyman, who is the co-founder and CEO of Ramp, which helps corporations manage their expenses. As such, he has front row visibility in terms of what's actually being spent and who is actually getting the money. We talk about trends he's seeing in terms of spending going toward companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as how AI tech is affecting the operations of his own business.

Read More:
SoftBank Shares Soar as Masayoshi Son’s AI Vision Coalesces
Trump Pushes to Make US an AI Superpower, With Fewer Guardrails

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Tariffs, crypto, deregulation, tax cuts, protectionism, are just some of the things back on the table when Donald Trump returns to the Presidency. To help you plan for Trump's singular approach to economics, Bloomberg presents Trumponomics, a weekly podcast focused on the Trump administration's economic policies and plans. Editorial head of government and economics Stephanie Flanders will be joined each week by reporters in Washington D.C. and Wall Street to examine how Trump's policies are shaping the global economy and what on earth is going to happen next.

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We all know that the new Trump administration is likely to be more friendly to the crypto industry than the Biden administration was. And we know that the industry has generally been rather supportive and enthusiastic about the change at the White House. But what's actually coming next? What does being favorable to the industry really look like in practice? What does the crypto industry actually want to see in terms of changing regulations under a new administration? On this episode, we speak with Austin Campbell, professor at NYU's Stern School of Business and the CEO of stablecoin company WSPN USA about the possibilities ahead, and what moves the industry is hoping to see from the SEC and bank regulators.00

Read More: Trump Plans to Designate Cryptocurrency as a National Priority

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Odd Lots has been exploring the history of the eurodollar market in a special three-part series hosted by Columbia Law School's Lev Menand and the New York Fed's Josh Younger. But why should we care about the origins of this market at all? How do eurodollars fit into the global financial system right now? And what role do they play in maintaining the dollar's reserve currency status? In this episode, we bring back Lev to give an update on the modern eurodollar market. We discuss why some policymakers have been sounding the alarm and whether stablecoins are the new eurodollars.

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In this special three-part series, Odd Lots is exploring the history of the eurodollar market. By the 1970s, eurodollars are hitting the headlines — and not in a good way. While this new form of money initially acted as a pressure valve for the Bretton Woods system, many now think the eurodollar market has spun out of control. What happens next — including Richard Nixon's decision to take the US off the gold standard — will not only shape the ultimate contours of today's eurodollar market, but will also give us the modern financial system itself. The story is told by Columbia Law School Professor Lev Menand and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Advisor Josh Younger.

Read More:
US Aims to Tighten Flow of TSMC and Samsung Chips to China
Russian Crude Oil Piles Up Near Chinese Coast After US Sanctions

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In this special three-part series, Odd Lots is exploring the history of the eurodollar market. As we enter the turbulent 1960s, the eurodollar market has grown big enough to catch the eye of regulators. The Federal Reserve mounts a fact-finding mission to better explore this rapidly-expanding market. And soon, policymakers have to decide just how helpful eurodollars can be when it comes to solidifying and expanding the greenback's role in international finance at a time when the gold-backed dollar is about to be put under massive pressure. The story is told by Columbia Law School Professor Lev Menand and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Advisor Josh Younger.

Read more:
Trump Team Studies Gradual Tariff Hikes Under Emergency Powers
Canadian Ambassador Warns of ‘Tit-For-Tat’ Retaliation to US Tariffs

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At more than $10 trillion outstanding, the eurodollar market is one of the biggest forms of shadow banking activity out there. It's also one of the most interesting markets in existence, allowing non-US banks to hold and lend offshore dollars that effectively sit outside of the Federal Reserve's control. But where did eurodollars actually come from? Why did the US allow these "shadow dollars" to exist at all? And what do eurodollars mean for the greenback's role in the global financial system? In this special three-part series, we look back at the hidden history of the eurodollar market. The story is told by Columbia Law School Professor Lev Menand and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Advisor Josh Younger. We start in the aftermath of World War II, when Europe is in the midst of an expensive reconstruction and the world is in the early throes of the Cold War. It's here that the eurodollar is born.

Read more:
Russia Sanctions Arm Trump for Talks With Putin
Scholz Steps Up Criticism of Trump’s Expansionist Rhetoric

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Regardless of your political ideology, it's easy to agree that government should work well; that it should be able to hire talented officials, and build things in a timely, cost-effective manner. Of course, what that means in practice is open for debate, and different people will have different priorities. But at the moment, there are reasons to believe the public sector isn't operating optimally. Things move incredibly slow in many cases. Software systems are often old and extremely costly, and don't do a good job serving the public's needs. It can be extremely difficult to bring on the best workers, even setting aside questions about public sector salaries. Jennifer Pahlka is the author of Recoding America, and was the founder of Code for America. She has also served as the US Deputy Chief CTO and has seen how much of government operates up close. We talk to her about what she's seen, how waste happens, how government operations get bogged down by inertia, and why simply identifying things that are going wrong isn't enough to change them. She talks to us about Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, and why a major jolt may be necessary to get better results.

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In the 1950s, a businessman, looking for a new way to settle his lunch tab, sparked a payments revolution and paved the way for today’s cashless economy. Now, the growing use of stablecoins like USDC is leading businesses and consumers to an era of digital payments that’s even faster and cheaper than a credit card.

This episode is sponsored by Coinbase.

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One of the biggest stories in markets right now is the huge selloff in government bonds. And we're not just talking about the US here. The UK is seeing multi-year highs in long-end yields. So is Japan. And of course, the US 10-year Treasury is close to its highest level in a year, despite the recent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. So what's going on? Is it just about inflation and growth expectations or is there more to it? On this episode, we speak to Jay Barry, head of global rates strategy at JPMorgan Securities, who breaks it all down and gives us his estimate of where fair value now stands.

Read More: Fed’s Barkin Says Term Premium Moving Long Rates, Not Inflation

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Utilities in the US have a couple big jobs to do. On the one hand, they need to deliver affordable and reliable power to their customers. On the other hand, they also need to maintain and upgrade huge amounts of fixed infrastructure. Balancing those two jobs is getting more complicated thanks to America's aging electricity grid and the shift towards renewables. So how are big utilities squaring those two objectives? How do they decide how much money they need to fund new capital investment? How do they decide which customer pays what rate? And what role do regulators play in all these discussions? In this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lon Huber, senior vice president of pricing and customer solutions at Duke Energy, one of the largest utilities in the US. We talk about why the ramp-up in renewable energy hasn't led to lower electricity prices for everyone, why fuel is ultimately the most marginal cost of electricity generation, and how utilities are handling booming demand from data centers.

Read More:
AI Needs So Much Power, It's Making Yours Worse
UK Set to Spend £1.8 Billion as Wind Power Overwhelms Grid

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If you look at various surveys, Americans feel grim about the state of the economy. But even outside of the economy itself, you see negative readings for faith in various American institutions. Pessimism seems to be in right now, at least on a societal level. But it wasn't always this way. In the 1990s, we were between the Cold War and the War on Terror. The stock market boomed through much of the decade. Optimism was in. So what was that like, and then how did it come to an abrupt end in the early years of the new millennium? On this episode, we speak to Colette Shade, author of the new book Y2K: How the 2000s Became Everything, about this time period in America, what stood out, and what is relevant today.

Related reading: Author of 'Dow 36,000' Book on Lessons Learned Since the 1999 Prediction

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In the US right now, there is a lot of talk about a so-called "nuclear revival." But it remains to be seen whether we'll see a meaningful uptick in actual power generation, from either new reactors, or old reactors getting a restart. Meanwhile, in China, nuclear construction is full steam ahead. In the last decade, China has built 37 nuclear reactors, and several more are coming down the pipe. So what does it take to build nuclear at scale? On this episode, we speak to David Fishman, a China-based energy analyst at The Lantau Group. He walks us through all the elements of the country's nuclear success, from financing to manufacturing to its domestic power markets. We also discuss what, if any, lessons could be applied elsewhere.

Previously: What’s Next for Uranium After the Big Price Surge

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As is becoming something of an annual tradition here, we recently asked Odd Lots listeners to send in any questions they have about the show to Tracy and Joe, via voice memo. We took as many as we could, and answered questions on all kinds of things, ranging from our favorite economists to career advice to changes in how the news media operates.

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As 2024 comes to an end, Tracy and Joe once again look back at the year that was in Odd Lots. On this final episode of the year, we revisit 10 of the most fascinating, surprising and unforgettable facts and ideas that came up on the show in the last 12 months, talking about everything from chicken prices to nickel mining to private finance.

Click here to revisit these earlier 10 episodes:

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Back in November, we released our series called Beak Capitalism, which took a look at the entire US economy through the lens of chicken. Then we went on the Money Stuff podcast, hosted by Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld, to talk about our work. Here is a replay of that conversation, for those who missed it.

You can subscribe to the Money Stuff podcast here. 
You can listen to Beak Capitalism here, here, and here.

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The Biden administration made energy and climate a centerpiece of its administration, most notably through the Inflation Reduction Act. At the same time, we’ve seen a boom in US oil and gas production the last four years, alongside the novel use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a price and supply stabilization tool. Meanwhile, investments in batteries and other clean technologies have been framed as crucial from the perspective of strategic and economic competition with China. So what was accomplished? And what will persist after the Trump administration comes into office? On this episode, we speak with US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm about her transformation of the department, and how she thinks about the future of existing energy strategies and policies under Trump.

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Last week, the Federal Reserve cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points, but simultaneously signaled a slower pace of cuts for next year. The guidance surprised markets and sparked a selloff in both stocks and bonds as traders adjusted to the new forecast. So what made the Fed change its stance? And where do the balance of risks to the economy lie right now? In this episode, we speak with Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly about how she's viewing the outlook for both inflation and the labor market. We also talk about the impact of AI on productivity, and how she's thinking about the potential impact of new policies from the incoming Trump administration.

Read More:
Fed’s Daly Says She’s ‘Very Comfortable’ With Two 2025 Rate Cuts
Powell Signals Fed’s Focus Has Returned Firmly to Inflation

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On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. But it also raised its inflation outlook for 2025, and sees just two more cuts next year. The markets reacted violently to it, with the major measures posting their worst day in a long time. What's more, there was nowhere to hide. Bonds and gold also sold off, alongside equities. So what's going on now? And what does this mean for portfolio construction? On this episode, we speak with Jim Caron, chief investment officer of the Portfolio Solutions Group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. We talked about why the market reacted as sharply as it did, and how to think about next year, given highly concentrated markets, uncertain macro, and the difficulty in finding diversifying instruments.

Read More: Powell Says Future Cuts Would Require Fresh Inflation Progress

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The world of startup investing has undergone massive transformations amid the AI boom, changing capital markets, and an intense degree of competition from new entrants into the space. So what does it take to succeed in venture capital? How does an investor know if they have what it takes? On this episode, recorded in San Francisco, we speak with Nina Achadjian, a partner at Index Ventures. She talks about her career, how she differentiates herself from other investors, and the sectors she's most excited about, including what areas are poised to benefit from AI.

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One of the minor culture wars in America has to do with electric stoves. To some, they're more energy efficient and better for air quality. To others, electric stove requirements represent government overreach, and a loss of freedom to use a gas range. Impulse Labs wants to change the whole conversation. The company produces an induction stove — very different than most electric stoves — that it claims can not only produce superior food, but can also be a catalyst for electrification, thanks to its built-in battery storage. On this episode, we visited the Impulse offices in San Francisco to try out the stove ourselves and talk to CEO Sam D'Amico about the company's vision. We also discuss how a stove maker based in the US thinks about the grid, tariffs, buying batteries, and other challenges that come with selling a physical consumer product.

Read More: How Did Gas Stoves Ignite a Culture War?

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Geothermal is a promising technology to provide clean, low-cost, baseload power to the electricity grid. It works by getting heat from deep in the ground, using technology that is similar to that used in fracking. Despite this potential, however, geothermal still remains a very small percentage of the US power mix. So what will it take for it to scale up? One big challenge is the core problem of financing. Firms need customers in order to get financing. But customers don't want to sign up for projects unless firms can finance them and get them built. On this episode, recorded live onstage at the Department of Energy's Deploy24 conference in Washington DC, we speak with Tim Latimer, the founder and CEO of geothermal company Fervo Energy. Tim was previously in the fracking industry. He explained to us how geothermal works, what's being built, and what it will take from private and public actors in order to scale it up.

Read More:
A Green Reason to Drill, Baby, Drill: Renewable Energy That’s Always On

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You can do a lot of things with the click of a button nowadays. You can get insurance, open a bank account, or trade 347 different stocks all at once via an ETF. But one thing you definitely can't do via a single click, is refinance your mortgage. In fact, securing a mortgage still requires reams of paperwork -- a lot of which has to be physically mailed to all the different parties involved. So why is mortgage finance stuck in the stone age? In this episode we speak with Mike Yu, co-founder and CEO of Vesta, about why we don't have one-click mortgages refis. He describes how a mix of clunky legacy IT systems and regulation have combined to make mortgage finance a technological laggard.

Read More:
US Home-Purchase Applications Rise to Highest Since February

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AI software and the hardware that enables it have been hugely popular investments this year. But there have still been limiting factors on the sector, including a shortage of compute to power so many new start-ups. Investors don't want to finance companies that lack a signed contract for compute, and compute providers don't want to sign contracts for startups that haven't already secured funding. Now Magnetar, a hedge fund which started its first ever venture capital fund earlier this year, is trying to solve this "chicken and egg" problem by offering compute in exchange for equity. Magnetar was an early investor in the AI space, partnering with Coreweave and recently helping the hyperscaler to raise $7.5 billion. On this episode, we speak with Jim Prusko, partner and senior portfolio manager on Magnetar's alternative credit and fixed income team, about why the hedge fund is getting into venture capital and some of the new ways they're deploying money in the space.

Read More: Magnetar Starts First-Ever Venture Fund, Targets Generative AI

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In the 2010s, we saw an incredible boom in the venture capital space, fueled in part by cheap capital as well as cheap compute. Fast forward to today, and many things look very different. We're not in the ZIRP era anymore. And computing power has become a scarce resource, particularly when it comes to AI. So how do things look different today from the perspective of a veteran venture capitalist? In this episode, recorded live in San Francisco in November, we speak to Ethan Kurzweil, a founder and managing partner at the new VC firm Chemistry. Ethan spent years at Bessemer Venture Partners, where he was involved in numerous software deals. He talks to us about his strategy for the new fund, the case for starting a small firm, what technologies excite him most right now, and the general landscape for seed-stage investing.

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For years, investors have relied on the classic 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. The idea behind this was simple: bonds tend to go up when stocks go down, so the two things should act as a natural hedge. But when inflation spiked in 2022 and 2023, the 60/40 portfolio performed terribly and bonds failed to act as a safety cushion. In this episode, we speak with Nouriel Roubini, chief economist and portfolio manager of the new Atlas America Fund, an ETF that is trying to create a new type of safe asset that can withstand big risks, including stagflation, deficits, and de-dollarization. We also talk about the outlook for the US economy in 2025, and the big risks that the chief economist and portfolio manager of the Atlas America Fund sees on the horizon.

Read more: Roubini Launches Treasury-Alternative ETF to Ride Trump-Era Risk
Crypto Critic Nouriel Roubini Is Working on a Tokenized Dollar Replacement

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It's trite to say that there is a high degree of uncertainty right now, for macro forecasters and investors. It also happens to be true. The new administration is promising major policy changes in areas like tariffs, immigration, and the size and scope of government. But even beyond that, there is near-term uncertainty over the outlook for the labor market and inflation. Furthermore, we're in an era of high stock valuations, high market concentration, and the AI wildcard. So in light of all this, we talked to Jan Hatzius, the Chief Economist and Head of Global Investment Research, and David Kostin, Goldman's top equity strategist, about what they're looking for in the year ahead.

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The election of Donald Trump, with his promise of more tariffs and a much tighter stance on immigration is a source of major macro uncertainty. To some it marks the end of a certain neoliberal consensus about globalization, and the pre-eminent role played by financial markets. According to today's guest, we're at the beginning of a long, turbulent period that may not be resolved for two decades to come. On this episode, we speak with macro strategist Viktor Shvets, and author of the new book, The Twilight Before the Storm: From the Fractured 1930s to Today's Crisis Culture. He talks about the big rethink that's underway on a whole host of issues that pertain to the global economy, starting with trade, and why it will take years for the dust to settle.

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When it comes to credit investing (or really any investing), there's an analytic art in deciding the right price to pay for a security. But often that's only part of the challenge. First you need someone to want to sell it to you. In something like public-market equity, this usually isn't hard. Liquidity is deep, and the "ask" price is well known. In something like private credit, it's much trickier. Someone has to sell you the deal. Someone has to call you about it and tell you about it. So how do you get the call? And how do you know when to say yes? On this episode, we speak with Milwood Hobbs, the Managing Director and Head of Sourcing & Origination at Oaktree. Prior to this role, he was at Goldman Sachs, also in leveraged finance origination and sales. So he's been involved in numerous credit deals in his career. On this episode, he talks us through his role, what's involved in it, how he gets offered deals, and how he determines what opportunities are better or worse.

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In the Zirp era of the mid-2010s, credit markets were booming and investors were clamoring for anything that would produce yield. So they were willing to accept fewer legal protections embedded in bond and loan documentation if it meant they could get a slice of a juicy deal. Today, the proliferation of these so-called "cov-lite" deals has been coming back to haunt the market, with investors now fighting each other over how much they can claw back from struggling companies. Some hedge funds have become incredibly creative when it comes to finding loopholes to exploit in deal docs. So what exactly is "creditor-on-creditor violence" and why has it become such a thing? How much is it adding to big investors' legal bills? And what can be done to reduce all the squabbling? We speak with Sujeet Indap, Wall Street Editor at the Financial Times and author of The Caesars Palace Coup: How a Billionaire Brawl Over the Famous Casino Exposed the Corruption of the Private Equity Industry.

Read More: Hedge Funds Smell Blood as Lenders Turn on Each Other 

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For years, the Harvard Endowment has easily been the largest endowment of any university. But as of right now, it's at risk of losing its crown to the University of Texas. So what happened? It's a combination of things including organizational tumult, external controversies over the university, controversy about the endowment's model itself, and other factors. And of course, Texas has unique tailwinds -- including a huge energy windfall -- that aren't easily replicated elsewhere. On this episode we speak with Bloomberg's higher education reporter Janet Lorin about what's changed at this huge source of capital.

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How did China become the economic behemoth that it is today? One pivotal moment was, obviously, it's ascension into the WTO. Prior to that, the era of reform under Deng Xiaoping was obviously crucial. But obviously no single event or turning point can really tell the story. In a groundbreaking new book -- The Great Transformation: China’s Road from Revolution to Reform --  historians Odd Arne Westad and Chen Jian tell the full story of how China went from being an impoverished, highly planned communist economy to the dynamic capitalist economy it is today. We spoke with Westad, a professor at Yale, about this book, and what people get wrong about China's big opening up.

Read more:
China’s Surging LNG Imports From US Threatened by Next Trade War
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Call for Greater China Transparency

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After his victory, Donald Trump announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy would be leading up a new Department of Government Efficiency in order to crack down on wasteful, fraudulent spending inside the federal government. Setting aside the question of how effective this particular endeavor will be, the basic premise of cracking down on waste and going after fraudsters should generally be non-controversial. So what does fraud look like? How do companies bilk programs like Medicare and Medicaid for billions of dollars every year? And what can be done about it? On this episode, we speak with Jetson Leder-Luis, an assistant professor at the Questrom School of Business at Boston University and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Jetson walks us through such things as ambulance fraud, identity theft, and other techniques that are used to milk the system. He also explains the tactics and strategies that the government can deploy to reduce billions in wasted spending.

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In the final episode of our special three-part series exploring the US economy through the chicken industry, we’re taking a look at market competition. Chicken in the US is dominated by a handful of huge poultry processors. But new technologies,  like algorithmic pricing, are also leading to accusations of anticompetitive corporate behavior that can potentially create bad outcomes for both consumers and workers. We’re using poultry to trace the evolution of America’s approach to antitrust and learning what’s different now. You’ll hear from senior officials at the Department of Justice about how concentration in chicken and elsewhere is impacting the economy, and what can be done to fix it. 

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The Odd Lots team is analyzing the US economy through the lens of chicken. In this second episode of our special three-part series, we look at the birds themselves and the people who farm them. Because the way we actually get chicken has changed a lot over the years, with the industry evolving from backyard birds to huge poultry companies that outsource chicken growing to independent contractors. Farmers often say they are taking on most of the risk of raising chicks, while the big poultry companies get most of the upside. And this model of farming is becoming more popular in other agricultural areas too. So what does the way chickens are produced say about the labor market, the way it’s structured, and the distribution of risk and profits? We speak with chicken growers, agricultural experts, and more. 

This episode was updated on November 19th, 2024 to reflect a clarification —it wasn’t until 2013 that Craig Watts sent a film of his barns to his production manager. In 2014 is when he partnered with a human rights activist to produce that exposé on chicken farming.

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Everybody loves chicken. And, it turns out, that this humble bird can tell us quite a lot about the way the world works. In this three-part series, the Odd Lots team is exploring some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy, through the medium of chicken. In this first episode, we’re looking at chicken from the consumer side. Why do we love it so much? What goes into the price of something like a hot wing or an egg? And what can chicken tell us about the way we think of inflation? We speak with prominent economists, analysts, CEOs, and even a chicken sandwich war correspondent, to discuss. It’s time for Squawk Lots! 

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Last week the Federal Reserve opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was what the market expected it to do. But things get more uncertain from here on out. Inflation has been softening this year, but there’s a sense that this trend could turn — especially with the Trump administration coming in after the new year. All of this raises the question of what the Fed does next, and how it’s approaching near-term data versus the longer-term outlook for the economy. At the same time, Trump has had vocal disagreements with Chair Jerome Powell over the path of monetary policy and the role of the central bank, which adds more uncertainty. On this episode, we speak with former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, now an economic advisor at Pimco and a professor of economics at Columbia University, about where the Fed goes from here.

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