Predictive History, Professor Jiang, No Ads

We have understood Western civilization to be composed of four major traditions -- that of the Greeks, Romans, Jews, and Christians.In this talk to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin argues that the Viking legacy is just as important for the development of Western civilization. During the Viking Age (793 - 1066 CE), the Vikings would interact with and influence the regions from which would emerge the nation-states of Great Britain, France, Germany, and Russia. These four became world empires. They were also for the past four hundred years the greatest cultures of the Western world. Jiang Xueqin argues that this was not just a coincidence -- the brilliance of the Viking oral tradition had a tremendous impact on these future empires.

Voltaire once wrote: "The Holy Roman Empire was in no way holy, nor Roman, nor an empire.”Historians often see this as a witticism. In this lecture to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin argues that Voltaire was right, and the Holy Roman Empire was a useful fiction created to legitimize the rule of Charlemagne and his successors.

The Byzantine empire saw itself as the continuation of the Roman empire.In this lecture to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin argues that Constantinople and Rome had opposing cultural systems. Rome was a pagan Latin republic, and Constantinople was a Christian multicultural empire.

How was Rome able to defeat all its powerful enemies in the Mediterranean world? Why did Rome decline and fall? What is Rome's influence on the world today? What lessons can we learn from it? In this talk to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin argues that it was Rome's distinct cultural system (which focused on liberty, public virtue, and piety) which permitted it to triumph over its rivals. But after Rome became an empire, this cultural system made it difficult for it to govern. Because America intentionally modeled itself after Rome, we can make certain predictions about America based on our reading of Roman history.

Traditionally, we have understood historical movement as either a line or a circle. We are either progressing towards the truth, or trapped in an endless loop. In this talk to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin proposes a new theory, which he calls "the oceanic currents of history."When we examine the fall and decline of global empires, a pattern emerges. As the empire expands, it draws once isolated regions into its orbit. The empire allows these regions to become more prosperous and sophisticated through trade and conflict. Prosperity increases the population in these borderlands, which forces them to expand and come into direct conflict with the empire. Sometimes, these people of the borderlands will overwhelm the empire, and become a new empire.

In this final talk of the semester to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin explains the enduring influence of Dante.Dante recognized that if he is to succeed in birthing a new European mind he must displace Vergil's Aeneid. To do this, Dante makes Vergil into his guide, and Vergil reveals that he is an unreliable narrator. At the beginning of their epic journey, Vergil insists to Dante that only the baptized can enter Heaven. Those who were virtuous and but were not baptized -- such as Vergil -- must remain in limbo. Once in Purgatory, the two meet Cato, who was never baptized. They also meet Statius, a Roman epic poet, who after five hundreds of self-reflection and penance in Purgatory, is finally about to ascend into Heaven. Eventually, Vergil and Dante arrive at the top of Purgatory, and await the arrival of Beatrice. When she does descend, Dante thinks that Vergil can now be redeemed. But Vergil has run away, rather than admit he was wrong. Though Dante cries for his friend, Beatrice tells him they need to move on -- Heaven is only open to those who want to enter it.

In this talk to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin explains that Dante's Divine Comedy was the intellectual blueprint for the Renaissance, the Protestant Reformation, and the Scientific Revolution.In a previous lecture, we explored how Augustine's writings would pave the way for Europe's Dark Ages. In his treatise "City of God," Augustine argued that we were born in sin, and we can commit only more sin. Though God is perfect, we were "created out of nothing," and cannot redeem ourselves. Dante believed that God created us to do what He could not -- love and imagine. Love is something that can happen only between humans, and is the Godforce within us that unites the universe. Because God is omnipresent and omniscient, he lacks an imagination (by definition). Our flaws, weaknesses, and limitations are what empowers our imagination. By constantly striving to be better, we continue God's legacy and imagine a better world.

Who was the historical Muhammad? How did Islam triumph over both the Byzantine and Sasanian empires? In this talk to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin argues that Islam was the first global revolution.While the Byzantine and Sasanian empires appeared to be superpowers, they were weak and fragile due to decades of plague, war, and succession struggles. The Arabian peninsula seemed like a primitive and backward desert, but it was actually a hotbed of innovation. As traders, the Arabs were open-minded, sophisticated, and cosmopolitan. Constant tribal warfare made the Arabs into brave and honorable warriors. Religious wars and imperial persecution drove "heretics" into Arabia in order to openly practice their faith. With his charisma and brilliance, Muhammad united the warring factions to reclaim the promised land that God had promised to their common ancestor Abraham. He promised his followers a Kingdom of God that emphasized religious tolerance and justice, inspiring them to victory even after his death.

In this talk to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin explains why Europe experienced the Dark Ages.After Rome was sacked in 410 CE, Europe experienced a crisis of faith. Were the Pagan Gods taking vengeance? Did Christianity preach a religion of meekness? In response, the Catholic theologian Augustine wrote "The City of God," in which he proposed to take the Catholic Church "out of history." From now on, kings would fight for control of Rome, but the Catholic Church would always reside in Jerusalem, offering eternal salvation to those who obeyed it.Augustine argued that we were born in sin, and so our actions could only lead to evil. Passivity was the best path to salvation.

In this lecture to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin argues that the idea of monotheism launched modernity.At the Council of Nicaea in 325 CE, the bishops of the Roman Empire had to decide on the relationship between God and Jesus. They established the Godhead as orthodoxy, and rejected Arianism as heresy. The Holy Trinity marked a radical intellectual revolution that would eventually give birth to capitalism, science, and the nation-state.

Why are the teachings of Jesus and his apostle Paul so different? Jesus preached compassion and mercy towards all, while Paul preached that Jesus was the son of God who atoned for our sins with his sacrifice. In this talk to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin presents a unique perspective on Paul’s motivations. He argues that Paul was an agent of the Roman empire who wanted to use Jesus to combat messianic Judaism. The Roman empire and the Jews would fight three costly wars, and the fanaticism of the Jews would awe and scare the Romans. The most fanatical Jews believed that a Messiah would arise to lead them to victory against the Romans. Paul taught that Jesus was the promised Messiah, and he had come to redeem us from our own failings, not to wage war against the Romans.

Who was the historical Jesus, and what did he believe? In this talk to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin argues that Jesus was a unique religious genius who synthesized the major global religions of his day to create a new religion, which we today refer to as Gnosticism. Like other great religious leaders, Jesus had a three-tier gospel. To the public, he taught that true faith demanded compassion. To his disciples, he taught that true faith demanded self-sacrifice. Then there were the secret teachings that he shared with his proteges. Jesus believed that we lived in a false reality, and it was only by seeking truth that we could escape from the darkness into the light. How did the New Testament diverge so sharply from Jesus’ true teachings? This is a topic that will be examined next class.

In this talk to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin explains the influence of Zoroastrianism on the development of the Hebrew Bible. After Cyrus the Great conquered Babylon, he enabled the Jews to return to Jerusalem to build the Second Temple. Ezra oversaw major religious reforms, including the creation and redaction of what we know today as the Hebrew Bible. Because of the influence of Zoroastrianism, the Bible began to emphasize eschatology, which in turn will pave the way for Christianity.

In this lecture to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin explains the power and beauty of the Book of Genesis.The chronology of the Pentateuch is confusing and contradictory. Archaeologists and historians have failed to discover any concrete evidence that Noah or Abraham or Moses ever existed. Jiang Xueqin argues that the Bible is not a chronology, but a cosmology designed to accomplish three major objectives:1. To legitimize King David of Israel. The poet-God Yahweh favored him because he was the first poet-king. 2. To create a new national identity. The Bronze Age collapse allowed the formation of new multi-cultural political entities in the Levant, including Israel. The Torah brought these disparate groups into a national narrative.3. To differentiate the Israelites from their powerful neighbors. The Bible focused on how the Israelites formed their new nation out of their religious and cultural struggle against the Egyptians and Canaanites. The writing of such a cosmology was common practice back then. What distinguished the Bible and turned it into the world's most powerful book was the literary genius of the Yahwist. With her stories of Adam and Eve and the Patriarchs, the Yahwist wrote domestic comedies that highlighted the universal and eternal human themes of love, childbirth, and family.

Who wrote the Bible, and why?In this lecture to Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin argues that the Bible was originally written as an apology for King David of Israel to establish his legitimacy and authority. The Bronze Age Collapse altered the geo-political landscape of the Levant, and with the retreat of the Egyptians and Hittites new political entities emerged. Threatened by the Philistines, the Israelites elected Saul to be their king. With the death of Saul, a violent civil war erupted between the House of Saul and the House of David. Even with his triumph, David continued to engage in acts of immorality and violence, most famously in the Bathsheba episode. Although designed as political spin, David's story is crafted with such care and beauty that it continues to captivate the imagination of audiences today.

Egypt, Mesopotamia, and the Indus Valley were the three great civilizations of the Bronze Age. What made the Indus Valley Civilization distinct? Why did they decline? What is their legacy?In this lecture to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin explains that the Indus Valley Civilization (also known as the Harappan Civilization) was mainly a peaceful and egalitarian society, which prospered because of its global trade networks. This civilization had standardized weights and measurements, sophisticated urban planning, as well as private indoor latrines. The dramatic climate change of the 4.2 kiloyear event caused Egypt’s Old Kingdom, Mesopotamia’s Akkadian empire, and the Indus Valley Civilization to decline. The Egyptians left us the Pyramids, the Mesopotamians left us the Epic of Gilgamesh, and the Harappans left us spiritual wealth. From the interaction with the Proto-Indo-Iranians, the Harappan civilization would eventually give birth to Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Sikhism, which continue to give hope and meaning to billions of people today.

In this lecture to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin explains why Mesopotamia became the cradle of civilization. He explains that geography determined the destinies and mythologies of Egypt and Mesopotamia. Protected by natural boundaries and nurtured by the bountiful Nile, Egypt believed in benevolent Gods. Mesopotamia had no natural boundaries and its two rivers -- the Euphrates and Tigris -- were mercurial and chaotic, which led people to believe that the Gods demanded their servitude and struggle. This belief is expressed in the two major mythologies of Mesopotamia -- "Enuma Elish" as well as "The Epic of Gilgamesh." This belief, as well as the fact that Mesopotamia was the center of the Bronze Age world, led the Sumerians to create the innovations that would form the basis of civilization.

For thousands of years, the Great Pyramid of Giza has captivated and captured the imagination of the world. Why was it built?In this lecture to Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin argues against the mainstream theory that the Great Pyramid was built as a grand tomb for the Pharaoh. He argues that the Great Pyramid was Ancient Egypt’s Manhattan Project, an attempt to unravel the secrets of the universe and channel the power of God to create eternal peace on Earth.

In this talk to Chinese high school students Jiang Xueqin explains why Vergil's "The Aeneid" is such brilliant propaganda.In 27 BCE, the Roman Senate declared Octavian "Augustus," making him effectively the first emperor. But Augustus Caesar still had three problems.First, he needed to establish his legitimacy and authority. To do so, he promoted the myth that his Julii family were descendants of Aeneas, and thus Rome's very first family.Second, he needed to establish a new Roman cultural identity that emphasized "piety" over "liberty." He promoted Aeneas as the epitome of piety. Third, he was worried about the corrupting influence of Greek culture. Although the Romans had conquered Greece militarily, it seemed that the Greeks had conquered Rome culturally.To solve all three challenges, Augustus Caesar sponsored the writing of "The Aeneid." Vergil's epic imitated and appropriated the Homeric epics to engineer a new Roman soul.

In 44 BCE, an eighteen-year old Octavian arrived in Rome without an army and without political alliances, and seventeen years later he became Rome’s first emperor. How did he do it?In this lecture to his Chinese students Jiang Xueqin explores and explains the birth of the Roman Empire. Julius Caesar saw himself as a man of destiny who would save the Roman Republic, a myth that was met with much skepticism in Rome. After he was assassinated, the Roman people felt regret and guilt for having doubted Caesar, and supported his adopted son Octavian’s quest for vengeance. In the ensuing civil war, as his opponents self-destructed, Octavius slowly and inevitably climbed the pinnacle of power.

In this talk to his Chinese high school students Jiang Xueqin examines the life and times of Julius Caesar. What motivated him? What made him so successful? Why was he assassinated? In 100 BCE, Julius Caesar was born into the "Imperial Republic" of Rome, a contradiction that led to inequality, corruption, and division. He came to believe he was a man of destiny who would restore the unity, stability, and prosperity of the Roman Republic. To do so, he became a myth-maker, and cast himself as the hero of the epic journey that he was spinning for the enraptured Roman audience. His enemies considered him a libertine and a demagogue, and were determined to destroy him.After winning the civil war against Pompey and the Optimates, Julius Caesar enacted a series of legislative reforms that were necessary but which challenged the traditional Roman worldview. In response, some of Julius Caesar's closest friends and associates assassinated him.

In 216 BCE, Hannibal Barca of Carthage defeated Rome at the Battle of Cannae. After three devastating defeats to Hannibal, Rome had lost twenty percent of its adult male population, and one-third of its Senate. The Roman Republic chose to continue fighting, and eventually it triumphed in the Second Punic War.In his lecture to Chinese students Jiang Xueqin explains that it was the three distinguishing characteristics of Roman culture and society -- piety, liberty, and "res publica" -- that would allow Rome to triumph over the Etruscans, the Greeks, and the Carthaginians.

Plato and Aristotle are considered the two most influential philosophers of Western antiquity. But there are three central paradoxes surrounding the life and work of Aristotle. He is considered a brilliant thinker, but we do not have any of his original writings. Over two hundred works are attributed to him, and the range of his works is extra-ordinary and super-human – he’s written about metaphysics, rhetoric, theater, politics, ethics, physics, and biology. Finally, while he studied under Plato for twenty years, his empirical approach to epistemology contradicts Plato’s rationalist approach. How can we explain these paradoxes?In this lecture to Chinese students Jiang Xueqin explains that to understand Aristotle’s work and beliefs it’s important to understand his background and associations. His life parallels that of Philip II of Macedon. Aristotle and Philip were born about the same time, and because Aristotle’s father was personal physician to the King of Macedon, the two grew up together. In their youths, Philip was sent to study military innovation at Thebes, and Aristotle was sent to study at Plato’s Academy, where he would spend the next twenty years. Legend has it that Aristotle became the tutor to Philip’s son Alexander the Great, and Philip rewarded Aristotle lavishly for his service.Philip’s military conquests were driven in part by the Pan-Hellenic Project, which aimed to unite the Greek diaspora scattered across the Aegean and Mediterranean. Because Greeks identified with their own city-state, Philip needed to create a “Greek culture,” a common identity that shared the best knowledge of the Greek world. Rather than an original thinker, Aristotle was a “systemizer,” who supervised his students in the collection and distillation of the entirety of Greek knowledge into textbooks for popular education and dissemination. Aristotle’s work would forever change human history. By systemizing Greek knowledge, Aristotle would help humans “see and be” in a new way. By simplifying and popularizing Greek knowledge, he would make it accessible, and it would spread as far as Alexander the Great’s conquests. And the interaction of Greek knowledge with foreign cultural eco-systems would birth new philosophies and religions, including Christianity.

We celebrate Alexander the Great as one of the greatest conquerors of history. What motivated him? Was he truly a strategic genius? What is his ultimate legacy?In this talk to his Chinese high school students Jiang Xueqin presents a revisionist understanding of Alexander the Great. He argues that Alexander was first and foremost motivated to prove he was better than his father. With his boundless ambition, he could not find peace until he had conquered the whole world.

In this talk Jiang Xueqin examines how Philip II of Macedon turned his kingdom from a poor and weak nation into the military hegemony that would conquer Persia. In his youth, Philip was a hostage at Thebes, where he studied the military innovations that made Thebes into the dominant military power in Greece at that time. He learned that with enough training and discipline, an army could achieve the mobility, co-ordination, and flexibility necessary to dominate others. He inspired loyalty among his men with his bravery, fair-mindedness, and oration. Slowly and methodically, with a mix of diplomacy and aggression, Philip II would unite classical Greece, and pave the way for his son Alexander the Great to conquer Persia.

In 399 BCE the Athenian people condemned Socrates to drink hemlock. In this lecture to Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin examines the significance and legacy of the trial of Socrates. During his lifetime, Socrates enjoyed exposing Athens' leading intellectuals. He became so notorious that the satirist Aristophanes ridiculed him in a play. Socrates had many admirers though. A group of young aristocrats -- including Plato and Alcibiades -- became his devoted pupils.In 404 BCE the Thirty Tyrants (some of whom were Socrates' students) came into power, and the Athenian people revolted against their reign of terror and restored their democracy. In 399 BCE, the Athenian people charged Socrates with "impiety" and "corrupting the youth of Athens." Plato would spend the rest of his life promoting the memory of his beloved mentor as a martyr for the truth. In so doing, he would create the most powerful metaphor of Western thought -- the allegory of the cave. This allegory would have three major impacts:1.) It created the belief that Socrates was the world's greatest philosopher.2.) It helped Christians understand the life and death of Jesus.3.) It became the intellectual basis of Christianity.

What made Athenian democracy so strong and vibrant? Jiang Xueqin explains that theater taught Athenians how to be democratic citizens. The three major dramatists were Aeschylus, Sophocles, and Euripides. Aeschylus' Oresteia offered a mythology of democracy, showing that democracy was a gift from Athena herself, and that by practicing it well Athenians could make the whole world more just, fair, and righteous. Sophocles' Oedipus Rex trilogy revealed the dangers and tragedy of a monarchy. In his "hubris," Oedipus of Thebes believed he could defy the Fates. His successor Creon thought he could defy the "unwritten, immutable, divine" laws of the universe, and condemned Antigone to death. Euripides' Bacchae was a critique of the Athenian democracy and empire, especially Pericles' Funeral Oration. Euripides believed that for a democracy to maintain its strength and vibrancy the citizenry had to confront the hard truths, especially the evils that they commit upon others.

In his book The Peloponnesian War, Thucydides explains that the war started because Sparta saw Athens as a threat to its hegemony. In this talk Jiang Xueqin argues that the American scientist James Calhoun’s “rat utopia” experiments offer a better explanation. In the 1950s and 1960s James Calhoun conducted experiments in which colonies of rats were put into worlds of plenty and abundance. All these experiments ended in disaster. Rather than enjoying paradise, the rats violently fought amongst themselves, and their social order collapsed. Why did this happen? In a wealthy world, high-status rats could live longer, which meant younger rats had no opportunities to achieve status. Consumed by anxiety and anger, this younger generation became violent and destructive. Fifth-century Athens was a “rat utopia.” After Persia was defeated in 479 BCE, Athens established the Delian League, and it became a de facto empire. The upper nobility was happy with the status quo, but the lower nobility clamored for opportunities to achieve fame and fortune. Athens became expansionist and imperial to ease its internal contradictions, and this ultimately led to the outbreak of the Peloponnesian War.

The Greeks were humanity's most creative civilization. Homer's Iliad and Odyssey are timeless classics, Plato's The Republic continues to inspire, and Thucydides are still read by military officers in search of strategic insights.Why were the Greeks so creative?Jiang Xueqin explains to his Chinese high school students there are three main factors:1.) the polis2.) the alphabet3.) HomerAfter the destruction of Mycenaean Greece at the end of the Bronze Age, Greece became divided into thousands of diverse city-states that competed against each other. The alphabet marked a revolution in human cognitive abilities, combining the advantages of an oral culture (imagination, memory, and emotions) with that of a literary culture (logic, discipline, and reflection). Finally, Homer's Iliad marked an intellectual revolution. Homer taught the Greeks empathy and imagination, and thus a new way of being human.

In this lecture Jiang Xueqin explores with his Chinese students why the Bronze Age collapsed.In the year 1200 BCE the world was globalized and prosperous. Nations shared people, ideas, and goods. A few decades later, the Bronze Age collapsed. Mycenaean Greece and Hittite Anatolia were destroyed, and the Sea Peoples ravaged Egypt. Scholars disagree on what caused this collapse. Some argued it was a northern invasion, while others believed there was a cataclysmic natural disaster. The scholarly consensus now is this systems collapse was brought on by a perfect storm of earthquakes, climate change, and internal revolts. Jiang Xueqin argues that Peter Turchin’s theory of “elite overproduction” is a more convincing theory. Once vibrant empires had devolved into rentier economies, and had become less resilient against external and internal shocks. Rather than being an outlier, the Bronze Age collapse would find itself repeated throughout human history.

Homo sapiens originated in Africa 300,000 years ago, and for the vast majority of our history we were egalitarian, peaceful, and artistic. So where did concepts of patriarchy, war, and private property come from?The Yamnaya people are nomadic pastoralists who originated in the Eurasian Steppes. They worshipped the Sky Father, and excelled at waging war. Slowly, their culture spread throughout the Steppes before conquering Europe, Iran, and India.

For centuries, linguists have believed that most European languages have so many similarities that they must have originated from a mother language, which is referred to as "Proto-Indo-European." Decades of work in linguistics have confirmed the existence of this language. But how did this language spread? The Lithuanian anthropologist Marija Gimbutas proposed her Kurgan Hypothesis, and argued that Old Europe was an egalitarian, peaceful, and artistic civilization that was conquered by a patriarchal, hierarchal, and warlike culture.

Jiang Xueqin examines two case studies that highlight the power of religion.In his book "The Wayfinders," the Canadian anthropologist Wade Davis looks at the animistic cosmology and the shamanistic rituals of the Barasana people of the Amazon. In his book "The Forest People," the British anthropologist Colin Turnbull observes the religion permeates every aspect of the life of the Pygmies. For religious people, their collective faith is more real than reality itself, and is the source of all that is good in the world. Jiang Xueqin argues that throughout most of human history religion is the fundamental basis of who we are. This idea is illustrated in Paleolithic cave paintings as well as the pillars of Gobekli Tepe.

The great French sociologist Emile Durkheim once wrote: “Religion is above all a system of ideas by which men imagine the society of which they are members and the obscure yet intimate relations they have with it.” In this talk, Jiang Xueqin explores the origin and purpose of Paleolithic cave paintings. He argues that these paintings expressed pre-historic religious beliefs and practices, and they demonstrate that humans have a religious imperative that is just as important as the economic and biological imperatives.

In this first lecture, Jiang Xueqin explains to his Chinese high school students why humans adopted agriculture.We now know that there were many consequences due to the transition to agriculture. Hunter-gatherers had an easier, more healthier, and less disease-prone life. So why did humans make this sacrifice? Though there are many explanations, most scholars believe that it was the religious impulse that drove humans to choose a sedentary life, as evidenced by the archaeological sites of Gobekli Tepe, Jericho, and Catal Hoyuk.