Bloomberg Surveillance

The Republican-led House rejected a temporary funding plan backed by President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday with just over 24 hours to go before a US government shutdown, capping an extraordinary two days in Washington that tested the limits of the incoming president’s power. For instant reaction and analysis, host Doug Krizner spoke with Bloomberg Capitol Influence deputy team leader Mike Dorning.

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-Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist, Bianco Research
-Frances Donald, Chief Economist, RBC
-Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State

Iain Stealy of JP Morgan Asset Management says, "The Fed is still on an easing path even though it'll be slower" after the central bank cut interest rates yesterday. Frances Donald of RBC says, "No forecaster, public or private, knows where we'll be in 12 months." Despite potential uncertainty, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken notes the Biden administration is in contact with the Trump administration saying, "The world doesn't stop just because we're in a political transition."

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & Jess MentonDecember 19th, 2024
Featuring:

• Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, discusses yesterday's Fed decision and the strength of the labor market
• Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO at QI Research, reacts to yesterday's Fed decision
• Wendy Schiller, professor at Brown University, discusses negotiations on government funding in Washington and other political headlines
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance as the Fed lowered interest rates for a third time, but reined in the number of cuts they expect in 2025.

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Ben Laidler & Alicia Levine.

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- Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer
- Anna Nikolayevsky, Axel Capital Management Founder/Chief Investment Officer
- Victoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Market Strategist

Lisa Shalett of Morgan Stanley says, "We expect to get a barrage, literally a machine gun of policy proposals" and the barrage will "undermine some of those animal spirits" in the market. Anna Nikolayevsky of Axel believes there is already consumer slowdown, citing people migrating toward cost-saving. Victoria Fernandez of Crossmark is bracing for more volatility next year.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 18th, 2024
Featuring:

• Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy and Equities at BNY Wealth, discusses her 2025 outlook, the Fed, and volatility and risks in 2025
• Jason Furman, Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard University, discusses President-elect Trump's second term economic policies and whether or not he believes they will be inflationary
• Jason Trennert, Chief Investment Strategist at Strategas, talks about the big picture in markets, what's next for the Fed and inflation, and the path for rates
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Julian Emanuel & Bill Priest.

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- Mark McCormick, TD Bank Global Head: FX & EM Strategy
- Dan Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management Chief Strategist
- Joanna Geraghty, JetBlue CEO

Mark McCormick of TD Bank says, "The election of Trump is a disruption to the existing order" around the world. Dan Greenhaus of Solus dives into the incoming administration and predicts, "No one's cutting spending. Spending never gets cut." Jetblue CEO Joanna Geraghty speaks about the changes happening at the airline, saying the company needs to make tough decisions in order to be profitable.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 17th, 2024
Featuring:

• Julian Emanuel, Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity, Derivatives, and Quantitative Strategy at Evercore ISI, on raising his S&P target for 2025 and previews the Fed meeting
• Meghan Robson, Head of US Credit Strategy at BNP Paribas, on credit positioning post-US election, political risks, and why she likes Europe to outperform the US
• Bill Priest, Chairman at TD Epoch, talks about global investing, his role leading the firm, and outlook for the US in 2025
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Rebecca Patterson & Max Kettner.

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- Steve Chiavarone, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, Federated Hermes
- Kelsey Berro, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, JPMorgan Asset Management
- Lydia Boussour, Senior Economist, EY

Steve Chiavarone of Federated Hermes says, "we are underestimating the growth that's going to come from the policies and overestimating the inflation," about the incoming Trump administration. Kelsey Berro of JPMorgan warns despite labor market resilience, "the unemployment rate is actually creeping higher." Lydia Boussour of EY is expecting a "more business-friendly environment" next year.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 16th, 2024
Featuring:

• Rebecca Patterson, former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater, discusses softening in China, this week's Fed meeting and expected rate reduction, and outlook for the dollar
• Henrietta Treyz, Managing Partner at Veda Partners, discusses government funding and tariff and tax policy proposals
• Stephen Trent, Director: American Airline Research at Citi Research, discusses the outlook for airlines and travel this holiday season and in 2025
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Michael Purves, Dan Ives, & Gene Munster.

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- Chris Verrone, Strategas Securities Partner/Head: Technical & Macro Strategy 
- Jared Woodard, BofA Securities Head: Research Investment Committee, 
- Bill Dudley, Fmr. NY Fed President

Chris Verrone of Strategas Securities isn't worried about market breadth, he says its "a little overstated" and December "can be a seasonally choppy period." Jared Woodard of BofA believes, "A rebalancing in the global economy, a lightly weaker dollar, slightly stronger currencies elsewhere could create conditions for incredible potential growth." Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley discusses an expected pause in rate cuts in January. 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 13th, 2024
Featuring:

• Dan Ives, Senior Equity Analyst at Wedbush Securities, and Gene Munster, Managing Partner at Deepwater Asset Management, talks the big year in tech in 2024 and bullishness on AI and big tech
• Ebrahim Rahbari, Senior Advisor: Geo-Economics and Markets with Fordham Global Foresight, offers his analysis of Trump's economic team, the US economy, and his note on the German elections and what it means for Europe
• Kona Haque, Head of Commodities Research at ED&F Man, on coffee's rally, sugar prices, and other soft commodities
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Jeffrey Rosenberg & Brian Belski.

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- Frank Aquila, Sullivan & Cromwell
- Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy
- Samuel Zief, JP Morgan Private Bank Global Macro Strategist & Head of Global FX Strategy

Frank Aquila of Sullivan & Cromwell is expecting a lot of inbound M&A from Europe and Asia. Peter Tchir of Academy Securities says the U.S. must prepare for China to increasingly share their brands globally, and its chips and A.I. focus are a big concern. Samuel Zief of JP Morgan believes European outlook is tilted to the downside. 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 12th, 2024
Featuring:

• Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager - Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock, talks fixed income and offering his market outlook in a second Trump admin
• Lindsey Piegza, Chief Economist at Stifel, on the outlook for inflation and rate cuts in the US amid recent eco data
• Gautam Mukunda, professor at Yale School of Management, on DC headlines and expectations for a second Trump admin
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Andrew Sheets & Elizabeth Economy.

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- Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas
- Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist
- David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist

Republican Congressman French Hill says tariffs "are much more about setting long-term spending reform and spending priorities" than balancing the federal budget. Jay Bryson of Wells Fargo expresses confidence the Fed will cut by 25bps next week following the latest CPI data. David Kelly of JPMorgan says the Fed will have to "look with one eye on what's really going on in the economy right now, and one eye on what might be coming in terms of policy going forward."

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 11th, 2024
Featuring:

• Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist at Morgan Stanley, Jay Bryson, Chief Economist at Wells Fargo, and Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rates Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, react to CPI
• Elizabeth Economy, professor at Stanford University, discusses China's economy and the US-China relationship currently and in a second Trump term
• Bob Hormats, Vice Chairman at Kissinger Associates, on the latest geopolitical headlines and the US relationship with China and other allies
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Cam Dawson & Mick Mulroy.

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- Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CEO & CIO
- Ellen Wald, The Atlantic Council Sr. Fellow
- Jill Carey Hall, BofA Securities US Equity Strategist

Bob Doll of Crossmark believes dividend stocks will have even more success next year. Ellen Wald of The Atlantic Council speaks about the importance of Saudi involvement in the future of Syria. Jill Carey Hall of BofA favors mid-cap stocks in 2025, saying, "Small-caps are still stuck in this earnings recession they haven't been able to get out of." 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 10th, 2024
Featuring:

• Dean Maki, Chief Economist at Point72, on the US economy and outlook for markets, inflation, and CPI
• Monica Guerra, Executive Director and Head of US Policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discusses President-elect Trump filling on his incoming cabinet and Trump's proposed economic policies
• Ellen Wald, Senior Fellow - Atlantic Council, discusses the outlook for oil amid renewed tensions in the Middle East following the collapse of Syria
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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- Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist & ESG Officer, Bloomberg Contributor
- Tim Adams, IIF President
- Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist

Nela Richardson of ADP thinks the Fed is waiting for CPI data to come out on Wednesday ahead of its rate decision next week. IIF President Tim Adams says, "Maybe we need the markets to send us a signal it is time to become more sober in our fiscal outlook." Andrew Hollenhorst of Citi believes, "You don't necessarily have a higher probability of losing your job right now, but if you do lose your job you have a higher probability of not finding one again."

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & David GuraDecember 9th, 2024
Featuring:

• Joumanna Bercetche, Bloomberg TV anchor based in Dubai, discusses the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and its broader implications for the Middle East
• Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, gives her 2025 market outlook
• Henrietta Treyz, Managing Partner at Veda Partners, talks about the weekend interview with President-elect Trump and breaks down his second term policy proposals
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Claudia Sahm & Alan Blinder.

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- Sucharita Kodali, Forrester VP & Principal Analyst
- Tom Porcelli, PGIM Chief US Economist
- Mohamed El-Erian, BBO & President, Queens' College Cambridge
- Jeffrey Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund

Sucharita Kodali of Forrester says consumers are spending on athleisure, after Lululemon's strong outlook. Tom Porcelli of PGIM, reacting to the November jobs data, says he thinks there are some cracks in the labor backdrop. Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College Cambridge says, "The challenge for markets and policy would have been a consistently strong report. This is a somewhat strong report, but not consistently strong." Jeffrey Rosenberg with BlackRock also reacts to the jobs figures.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 6th, 2024
Featuring:

• Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist at Morgan Stanley, Kathy Jones, Chief Investment Strategist, Fixed Income at Charles Schwab, and Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, react to today's jobs report
• Dr. Alan Blinder, economics professor at Princeton and former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, on today's jobs numbers and the potential for inflation to reignite in a second Trump admin
• Stephen Carroll, Bloomberg Radio Reporter, on the latest political developments in Paris
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Richard Haass & David Rosenberg.

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- Tobin Marcus, Wolfe Research Head of US Politics and Policy 
- Nouriel Roubini, Atlas America Fund Portfolio Manager / Roubini Macro Associates CEO / Professor Emeritus, NYU
- Eric Resnick, KSL Capital Partners CEO

Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research doesn't think tariffs are priced into the market, and people will need to "see it to believe it." Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Macro Associates calls Bitcoin a "speculative asset" that is "highly volatile." Eric Resnick of KSL Capital Partners describes a resurgence in consumer confidence after the election.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 5th, 2024
Featuring:

• David Rosenberg, founder and president at Rosenberg Research & Associates, discusses the 2024 equity rally, Bitcoin, and how the market is broadening
• James Steel, Chief Commodities Analyst with HSBC, on hedges in the market and the outlook for gold
• Richard Haas, Senior Counselor with Centerview Partners and President emeritus of Council on Foreign Relations, on political turmoil in France and South Korea and the US' relationships with its allies is changing
• Wendy Schiller, professor at Brown University, discusses the latest on Trump's cabinet picks and other DC headlines
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Far-right leader Marine Le Pen teamed up with a left-wing coalition to topple the French government, pitching the country into a prolonged period of turbulence that’s likely to further unsettle investors. For reaction and analysis, hosts Tim Stenovec and Emily Graffeo speak with Bloomberg Daybreak Europe host Stephen Carroll, reporting live from our Paris bureau and Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered Bank.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature a conversation with Wei Li.

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- Lori Heinel, State Street Global Advisors EVP/Global Chief Investment Officer
- Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist
- Ian Lyngen, BMO, Head: US Rates Strategy

Lori Heinel of State Street says until the ink is dried on some of Trump's policies, "it is hard to know how those crosswinds will actually impact the real economy." Wei Li of BlackRock believes, "This is an environment of transformation rather than your typical cycle." Ian Lyngen of BMO thinks the market is still trading the election results and focusing on a potential trade war instead of the Fed.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 4th, 2024
Featuring:

• Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock, discusses the global economic implications of political unrest in France and South Korea, and also discusses BlackRock's 2025 outlook
• George Saravelos, Global co-Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, discusses the latest FX moves in French and South Korean currencies, and can also touch on Trump tariffs
• Jay Bowen, President & CIO at Bowen, Hanes, on managing Tampa pension plans and outlook for US markets in a second Trump term
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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- Steven Englander, Standard Chartered Bank Global Head: G10 FX Research
- Oliver Chen, TD Cowen Managing Director & Professor at Columbia Business School in Retail
- Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist

Steven Englander of Standard Chartered Bank discusses the "tremendous advantage" of dollar dominance in the U.S. Oliver Chen of TD Cowen says quiet luxury is really working, and the consumer remains focused on value in retail. Lindsey Piegza of Stifel says the Fed needs to move to the sidelines in 2025 and allow data to evolve if we're still seeing strength.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & Damian SassowerDecember 3rd, 2024
Featuring:

• Jeff Kleintop, Chief Global Strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses his market outlook for 2025 and how the government crisis in France could reshape the economic situation in Europe
• Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses the latest on US politics and how President-elect Trump is reshaping relationships with allies
• Aoifinn Devitt, Senior Family Office Strategist at Moneta, discusses the outlook for US and European equities in light of uncertainty in France
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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- Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management
- Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst with Raymond James
- Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors

Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management discusses what investors looking ahead to  with payrolls and a December Fed meeting with stocks at all-time highs. Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst with Raymond James, talks about how leaders from Mexico and Canada are approaching potential US tariffs. Claudia Sahm with New Century Advisors breaks down the Fed's 2025 approach.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & David Gura December 2nd, 2024

Featuring:

• Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses her outlook for fixed income in 2025 and the risks of disinflation
• Henrietta Treyz, Managing Partner at Veda Partners, discusses the top DC headlines including President-elect Trump's pick to lead the FBI
• Lisa Kaplan, CEO at Alethea, discusses how retailers are balancing two threats: tariffs and disinformation campaigns
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & Jess MentonNovember 29th, 2024
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Featuring:

• Sonja Marten, Head: FX & Monetary Policy at DZ Bank, talks about the Trump trade and global FX moves
• Aneeka Gupta, Director of Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree, talks about economic weakness in Europe and what to expect for Europe's economic growth in a second Trump admin
• Gene Marks, CPA, President at the Marks Group, on President-elect Trump's tax plan and the impact of the Trump economy on small businesses
• Anjee Solanki, National Director of Retail, US at Colliers, joins from outside a retail store to talk about Black Friday shopping and consumer health

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- Michael Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management
- Jill Standish, Global Head of Retail at Accenture
- Judy Dempsey, Nonresident Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe

Michael Green of Simplify Asset Management talks about risk on sentiment in markets and whether the crypto rally can continue. Jill Standish, Global Head of Retail at Accenture, says retailers "have good reason to be cautiously optimistic" as holiday season kicks off. Judy Dempsey with Carnegie Europe discusses how European leaders are anticipating less US support for Ukraine and expectations for a second Trump administration.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Ian Bremmer & Dana Telsey.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney November 27th, 2024
Featuring:

• Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses optimism in 2025 for markets and the threat of tariffs
• Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, joins to discuss a slew of geopolitical topics, including the war in Ukraine and temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, and the implications of a Trump presidency on geopolitics
• Whitney Tilson, founder at Kase Capital Management, on his NYC mayoral bid, the Democratic party, and US politics at large
• Dana Telsey, founder and Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group, discusses her 2024 Holiday spending outlook

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- John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Chief Investment Strategist 
- William Dudley, BBO/Bloomberg Economics & Former NY Fed President
- Sucharita Kodali, Forrester VP - Principal Analyst

John Stoltzfus of Oppenheimer says, "People are beginning to realize this bull market has legs. There is a broadening that is undeniable." Former New York Fed President William Dudley says, "If the markets start to judge that something is highly likely, then the Fed has to take it on board as their own thinking." Sucharita Kodali of Forrester outlines a shift in the retail landscape altogether as retailers prepare for holiday shopping.

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Israel reached a deal for a 60-day cease-fire with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah after weeks of talks mediated by the US, a first step toward ending a conflict that’s killed thousands of people. For reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Businessweek hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with Bloomberg National Security Team Leader Nick Wadhams and Bloomberg News Economy and Government reporter Galit Altstein.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Sam Stovall & Doug Irwin.

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- Nela Richardson,  ADP Chief Economist & ESG Officer
- Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of Equity Trading Strategy
- Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Global Head of Technology Research, Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst 

Nela Richardson of ADP says "we're on a knife's edge" when it comes to wage growth versus inflation. Stuart Kaiser of Citi says economic "growth is solid, but not exemplary" and warns investors they have to "trade it that way." Dan Ives of Wedbush believes more Tesla jobs could move from California to Texas if a proposal by Governor Gavin Newsom that would exclude Elon Musk's company from EV rebates becomes reality. 

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