Bloomberg Surveillance

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- Rob Casey, Signum Global Advisors Partner & Senior Analyst
- Mohamed El-Erian, Queens' College Cambridge
- Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Senior Portfolio Mgr: Systematic FI

Rob Casey of Signum Global Advisors believes there will be a clear election result in the first 48 hours of the election. Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College says the Fed will cut by 25bp next week, and the October payrolls report is not changing that decision. Jeff Rosenberg of BlackRock says the jobs report is "a downside disappointment, but the broader message is labor markets have been normalizing."

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyNovember 1st, 2024
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Featuring:

• Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zenter, & Liz Ann Sonders with Charles Schwab react to the jobs report
• Jessica Taylor, Senate & Governors editor for the Cook Political Report, discusses Senate and House races ahead of the 2024 election
• David Gura, host of the Bloomberg "Big Take" podcast, on traveling to Wisconsin, the 2024 presidential race, and other DC headlines

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On a special edition of Bloomberg Technology, host Ed Ludlow speaks with Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger after the company gave a fourth-quarter revenue forecast slight above estimates, leading to a spike in shares after hours. 

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Intel shares surged after the company gave a fourth-quarter revenue forecast slightly above estimates, sparking optimism that it’s capable of reclaiming some lost market share. Apple reported weaker sales in China than anticipated last quarter, raising fresh concerns about one of its most important regions. For instant reaction and analysis to the latest big tech earnings drop, hosts Tim Stenovec and Emily Graffeo speak with Bloomberg Technology co-host Ed Ludlow. 

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Thierry Wizman, Dan Ives, & Joe Mathieu.

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- Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Council on Foreign Relations Adjunct Sr Fellow & Fmr. State Dept. Chief Economist
- Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist
- Lindsay Rosner, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Head: Multi-Sector Investing

Former State Department Chief Economist Heidi Crebo-Rediker of the Council on Foreign Relations believes the razor-thin election will come down to turnout. Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter says the election will impact three key policies: tariffs, immigration and fiscal policy. Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs sees great opportunity in fixed income. 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyOctober 31st, 2024
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Featuring:

• Monica Guerra, Head of US Policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discusses the outlook for the 2024 election, risks it creates for investors, and how the momentum's swung in recent days
• Dan Ives, Senior Equity Strategist at Wedbush Securities, reacts to Microsoft and Meta earnings and previews the rest of Big Tech earnings this week
• Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist at Invesco, on his three drivers for markets amid election and geopolitical noise
• Michael Froman, president at Council of Foreign Relations, discusses his Foreign Affairs article on tariffs and outlook for potential Harris & Trump administrations

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Microsoft's cloud-computing and Office software businesses fueled stronger-than-projected quarterly revenue growth, a sign that the company’s hefty investments in artificial intelligence are starting to pay off. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms projected stronger-than-expected holiday quarter sales, and touted AI improvements to its core advertising business. But it wasn’t enough to satisfy Wall Street. For instant reaction and analysis to these results, plus other tech earnings, hosts Tim Stenovec and Katie Greifeld speak with Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology analysts Mandeep Singh and Anurag Rana.  

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Nick Colas & Dennis Gartman.

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- Katrina Dudley, Franklin Templeton Public Markets Senior Investment Strategist
- Dirk Willer, Citi Global Head: Macro Asset Allocation
- Claudia Sahm, New Century Advisors Chief Economist

Katrina Dudley of Franklin Templeton says technology stock earnings are really positive. Dirk Willer of Citi says there is concern "a Trump Administration would mean more inflation." Claudia Sahm of New Century Advisors believes, "We are in a trend place that is much better than frankly we went into the pandemic with."

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyOctober 30th, 2024
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Featuring:

• Nick Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research, discusses the great bond freak out, markets pricing in the Trump-Harris race, and whether Europe can get its mojo back
• Mandeep Singh, Senior Tech Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Alphabet and other tech earnings
• Lindsay Newman, geopolitical risk expert and columnist at GZero Media, on the 2024 presidential race and the "sliding doors" moment for the world
• Randy Schwimmer, Vice Chairman of Investor Solutions Group at Churchill Asset Management, on the velocity in private credit and why it's "adapt or die" time for credit managers

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Google parent Alphabet reported third-quarter sales that climbed more than analysts expected, helped by the growth of its cloud computing business. For instant reaction and analysis, hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec spoke with Bloomberg Intelligence senior tech industry analyst Mandeep Singh and Bloomberg Technology co-host Caroline Hyde. 

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with David Malpass, Anurag Rana, & Katy Kaminski.

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- Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group Managing Director
- Jessica Taylor, The Cook Political Report Senate and Governors Editor
- Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer

Jon Lieber of Eurasia Group says views on both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are "baked in." Jessica Taylor of The Cook Political Report believes, "As the presidential race goes, probably the senate races go." Lisa Shalett of Morgan Stanley says the possibility of an "inflation boomerang" this year is rising. 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyOctober 29th, 2024
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Featuring:

• Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, gives a preview of Friday's jobs report and discusses the threat of tariff policy
• David Malpass, former head of the World Bank, talks about the health of the US economy and global economies and what's ahead for the World Bank in a Trump or Harris presidency
• Anurag Rana & Mandeep Singh, Senior Tech Analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, join to preview this week's big tech earnings
• Mike Shepard, Executive Editor for Bloomberg News, on the 2024 election and DC headlines

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- Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President
- Mark McCormick, TD Securities Global Head of FX Strategy
- Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director - Economic Policy Research

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research says the "bond vigilantes are definitely mounting up" ahead of the election. Mark McCormick of TD Securities says, "The US equity market still offers probably the best risk-adjusted performance relative to other classes." Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners says "the street is even more bullish" on Trump winning the election than the prediction markets.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & David GuraOctober 28th, 2024
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Featuring:

• Henrietta Treyz, Managing Partner at Veda Partners, on the Trump-Harris race and the 2024 election
• Hugh Johnson, Chairman at Hugh Johnson Economics, offers his thoughts on how Harris' and Trump's economic policies will play out and whether we're on the cusp of a bear market in equities
• Jack Devine, founder of The Arkin Group, on Israel's response to Iran and whether it could lessen tensions in the Middle East
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & David GuraOctober 25th, 2024
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Featuring:

• Aneeka Gupta, Director, Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree, offers her view on gold, US equities, and European stocks
• Joe Mathieu, host of Bloomberg's "Balance of Power," discusses DC headlines and the latest on the 2024 race
• Brij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at Wellington Management, discusses his views on the Fed, how the market's pricing in the election, and the benefits of divided government
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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- Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst
- Mohamed El-Erian, Queens' College Cambridge President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist
- Sonia Meskin, UBS Investment Bank Senior Economist

Ed Mills of Raymond James believes there will be clarity on the winner of the election that night or early on Wednesday. Mohamed El-Erian of Queens College Cambridge says, "There is no other payment system to replace the dollar payment system, but you can build pipes around it." Sonia Meskin of UBS estimates, "Kamala Harris would probably extend the deficit by about $2 trillion, whereas Trump would extend by just over $4 trillion." 

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- Daleep Singh, Deputy National Security Advisor, International Economics
- Kevin McCarthy, Fmr. House Speaker
- Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Chief Global Strategist/Head of Asset Allocation

Deputy National Security Advisor of International Economics Daleep Singh says "tariffs alone are not a path to prosperity." Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy says he believes there is a 60% chance Trump wins the election. Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank says, "Historically, presidential elections haven't really changed the business cycle." 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney
October 24th, 2024

Featuring:

• Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, shares her thoughts on private markets and what's playing out currently in the equity and bond markets
• David Gura, host of Bloomberg "Big Take" podcast, on the new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll and the 2024 election
• Dan Ives, Senior Equity Analyst at Wedbush Securities, on Tesla's blowout quarter
• Nadia Calvino, president of EIB, on the IMF meetings in DC this week, how Europe is supporting Ukraine, and the EIB's goals

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Tesla surpassed Wall Street estimates for earnings in the third quarter, reflecting a rebound in demand for the company’s electric vehicles. The EV maker also said it expects to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries for the full year. For instant reaction and analysis, hosts Tim Stenovec and Katie Greifeld speak with Gerber Kawasaki Wealth Management CEO Ross Gerber and Bloomberg Technology cohost Ed Ludlow. 

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Bob Doll & Frances Donald.

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- Ben Gutteridge, Invesco Portfolio Manager - Multi-Asset Strategies
- Evan Roth Smith, Blueprint
- Matt Hornbach, Morgan Stanley

Ben Gutteridge of Invesco thinks stocks can make it through the election in a positive fashion. Evan Roth Smith of Blueprint says the election is a 50-50 race, but the odds of a polling error would likely be in favor of Kamala Harris. Matt Hornbach of Morgan Stanley says, "What we've been telling investors is to hug their benchmarks tightly, and wait for opportunity to rise in the wake of the election." 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyOctober 23rd, 2024

Featuring:

• Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, argues why the economic analysis shouldn't focus on soft v. hard landing in the US and why the US election is not driving global macro themes
• David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, on living in a post-cycle world and the good and not so good news for the US and global economies
• Ernie Tedeschi, Director of Economics at the Yale Budget Lab, talks about his Bloomberg Opinion piece on the cost of Donald Trump's tariff proposals
• Kristen Bitterly, Head: Wealth At Work at Citi, discusses positioning for this market and gives her outlook for the US economy

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Mike Wilson & Brian Belski.

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- Kurt Reiman, UBS Head of Fixed Income for the Chief Investment Office & UBS ElectionWatch Lead
- Torsten Slok, Apollo Management Chief Economist
- Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Chief Investment Officer

Kurt Reiman of UBS says the recent surge in US treasury yields pertain to strong growth as opposed to 'Trump trade.' Apollo's Torsten Slok says that the totality of US economic data points to the 'no landing scenario.' Brent Schutte of Northwest Mutual says 'investors are way too optimistic the Fed will cut rates in a neat and tidy way.' 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyOctober 22nd, 2024
Featuring:

• Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Strategist and CIO at Morgan Stanley, on whether the equity rally could soon stall, and also discusses the market impact of this earnings season and the 2024 election
• Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, discusses the equity bull market
• Wendy Schiller, professor at Brown University, on two weeks to go to the 2024 presidential election as well as other DC headlines
• Francisco Blanch, Head: Global Commodities, Equity Derivatives and Cross-Asset Quantitative Investment Strategies at Bank of America Securities, on oil, copper, gold, and an effective commodities play in 2024 and post-election

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- Daniel Morris, BNP Paribas Asset Management Chief Market Strategist
- Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Co-CIO 
- Aditya Bhave, BofA Global Research Senior US Economist

Daniel Morris of BNP Paribas is bracing for a "negative shock," but says the economy looks resilient. Jim Caron of Morgan Stanley says it will be hard to get inflation under control no matter who wins the election. Aditya Bhave of BofA doesn't believe in reacceleration yet.

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & David Gura.October 21st, 2024
Featuring:

• Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist at Nationwide, discusses why a November rate cut isn't guaranteed at the next FOMC meeting
• Henrietta Treyz, Managing Partner at Veda Partners, on the 2024 election and the closing strategies for Kamala Harris & Donald Trump
• Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, talks about why she remains bullish on US stocks and offers her outlook for the US economy
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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- Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist
- Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist
- Kit Juckes, Soc Gen Chief FX

iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso says the economy's resiliency is what's truly in the driving seat. Stifel's Lindsey Piegza believes the Fed "sent the wrong message" what a 50bp cut. Kit Juckes of Soc Gen doesn't foresee the ECB cutting rates aggressively.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & David GuraOctober 18th, 2024
Featuring:

• Lara Rhame, Chief Economist at FS Investments, discusses why she believes a soft landing might not be so soft and talks about how the 2024 election will impact markets
• Nancy Curtin, Partner & Global CIO at AlTi, on remaining bullish on the S&P 500 and what she's seeing when it comes to market fundamentals
• Gautam Mukunda, lecturer at Yale University, on politics & the 2024 presidential race
• Carole Streicher, Americas Regional Head of Deal Advisory for KPMG, talks about the firm's findings on M&A activity in 2024 and what to expect into the new year

Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillanceEric Mollo 

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Netflix added more than 5 million customers in the third quarter, and eclipsed Wall Street’s expectations on every major financial metric despite a new programming slate constrained by last year’s strikes in Hollywood. For instant reaction and analysis, hosts Tim Stenovec and Molly Smith spoke with Dan Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust. 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & Carol Massar.October 17th, 2024
Featuring:

• Kara Murphy, CIO at Kestra Investment Management, gives her outlook for the US economy and equity markets
• Matt Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at Van Eck Associates, on the Bitcoin and crypto outlook
• David Gura, host of the Bloomberg "Big Take" podcast, discusses the 2024 election and other DC headlines
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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- Governor Ned Lamont (D) Connecticut
- Dan Skelly, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Head of market research and strategy
- Jeremy Stretch, CIBC

Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont says Vice President Kamala Harris and running mate Tim Walz are more pragmatic than the Biden Administration. Dan Skelly of Morgan Stanley says a "red sweep" in the U.S. election would cause "the most near-term volatility." Jeremy Stretch of CIBC says the market "is increasingly looking a little oversold." 

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- Elyas Galou, BofA Securities Senior Investment Strategist
- Keith Lerner, Truist Co-CIO/Chief Market Strategist
- Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President and Founder

Elyas Galou thinks investors have transformed from "nervous bulls" a month ago to just bulls. Keith Lerner of Truist says, "This is the strongest election year we've seen for the stock market since the 1950's." Julia Coronado of Macropolicy Perspectives says the "bar is very high" for the Fed to deviate from a 25bp cut in November.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Carol Massar & Barry Ritholtz.October 16th, 2024
Featuring:

• Aoifinn Devitt, Chief Global Strategist at Moneta, discusses the potential market impact of the 2024 presidential race & how ASML's chip warning is weighing on investor sentiment
• Ann Miletti, Head of Equity at Allspring Global Investments, discusses how earnings season will impact US equities and why Allspring investment teams are "listening for the quiet"
• Lakshman Achuthan, founder of ECRI, joins to break down his reading of the current economic cycle and why US inflation may persist and not soften in a linear fashion
• Kailey Leinz, host of Bloomberg's "Balance of Power," on the 2024 presidential race and John Micklethwait's interview with former US president Donald Trump

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Chuck Clough & Katy Kaminski.

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- Max Kettner,  HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist
- Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist
- Vishal Khanduja, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Head of Broad Markets Fixed Income

Max Kettner of HSBC says, "The market is underestimating the strength of the US consumer." Alpine Saxon Woods' Sarah Hunt is watching companies that have "continuously good balance sheets" and can generate cash as earnings season continues. Vishal Khanduja of Morgan Stanley says, "We have the lowest amount of spread risk in our portfolio for a long time."

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyOctober 15th, 2024
Featuring:

• Chuck Clough, Chairman at Clough Capital, discusses current market trends and risks as well as how earnings are impacting investors
• Jennifer Lawless, University of Virginia professor, on the 2024 presidential race
• Mark Kimmitt, Retired Brigadier General, on the conflict in the Middle East
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

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Join Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo and Michael Barr LIVE on YouTube weekday mornings. Join us on YouTube, starting at 7am ET.     

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 - Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of Equity Strategy
- Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist
- Kate Moore, BlackRock Global Allocation Team Head of Thematic Strategy  

Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets says investors are in wait-and-see mode until after the US election. Nela Richardson of ADP predicts the October jobs report "is going to be really, really clouded." Kate Moore believes 3Q revenue growth will be solid, but not blockbuster. 

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature a conversation with Simon Johnson.

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyOctober 14th, 2024
Featuring:

• Simon Johnson, Professor: Entrepreneurship/Head: Global Economics at MIT Sloan School of Management, on winning the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics
• Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, discusses whether there's potential for a downtown in US equities amid the presidential election and geopolitical uncertainty
• Johanna Chua, Head of Asia Pacific Economic and Market Analysis at Citi, joins to talk about China's fiscal announcement this weekend and gives her outlook for China growth
• Amrita Sen, founder and Director of Research at Energy Aspects, talks about the outlook for energy and oil

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- John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Chief Investment Strategist
- Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy and Large Cap Bank Analyst
- Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist

John Stoltzfus of Oppenheimer says the American consumer is "remarkably resilient." Gerard Cassidy of RBC responds to earnings from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, saying the industry "just doesn't have the risks that it had in those past periods." Lara Rhame of FS Investments calls inflation a "mild headache that still isn't going away." 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyOctober 11th, 2024
Featuring:

• Gerard Cassidy, Head: US Bank Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, reacts to today's bank earnings and offers his outlook for bank earnings season
• Leslie Falconio, CIO & Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Financial Services, on the soft landing scenario and why she thinks it won't lead to a large decline in yields
• Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, reacts to PPI and gives her outlook for US inflation and the US economy
• Joe Mathieu, host of Bloomberg's "Balance of Power," on the presidential election, the Trump and Harris media blitz, and other headlines in Washington

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Gerard Cassidy & Stephanie Guild.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Richard Haass & Cam Harvey.

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- Brian Levitt, Invesco Global Market Strategist
- Dan Greenhaus, Solus Alt. Asset Mgmt
- Tom Narayan, RBC Analyst

"People say,'buy low, sell high.' I say, 'buy high, sell higher,'" says Invesco's Brian Levitt. Dan Greenhaus of Solus Alternative Asset Management believes "higher yields are not necessarily a problem" for the equity market. RBC's Tom Naryan says Tesla's robotaxi "dramatically increases the valuation of the mobility sector."

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