Bloomberg Surveillance

John Ryding, RDQ Economics Chief Economist & Founding Partner, says Jerome Powell is a consensus builder. John Coffee Jr., Columbia Law School Adolf A. Berle Professor of Law & Director of the Center on Corporate Governance, says a tweet cannot explain the complexities of Tesla's decisions. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor & Peter G. Peterson Chair, discusses the latest issue. And Amanda Sloat, Brookings Institution Robert Bosch Senior Fellow, says it would be disastrous if Turkey left NATO, however, she hasn't seen any indication that they'll do so.

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Thanos Vamvakidis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Head of G10 FX Strategy, thinks the dollar is overvalued by about 10%. Tim Quinlan, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, says conversations at Jackson Hole may be more about the balance sheet than the Fed funds rate. Ken Simonson, NABE Survey Analyst & Associated General Contractors Chief Economist, reviews the NABE survey and notes that 91% of the respondents said tariffs are harmful to the economy. And Meenal Patel, JPMorgan Private Bank EMEA Head of FX, Commodities, and Rates, foresees a continuation of global growth. 

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Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist, says the U.S. economy is late cycle. Romaine Bostick, Bloomberg News Editor, discusses scaling back the frequency of quarterly reporting per President Trump's tweet. Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Global Economist, thinks Turkey's crisis is more idiosyncratic than systemic. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, says earnings are coming in stronger than he expected. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group Chief Research Officer, says JC Penney's search for a CEO is essential to the company's future. 

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Dominic Konstam, DB Securities Managing Director & Global Head of Rates Research, says the U.S. is immune to emerging markets to a point. Greg Parsons, Semper Capital Chief Executive Officer, says Special Counsel Robert Mueller is focused on getting to the truth. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments Director of Global Macro, says we're approaching late cycle but we're not there. And Elsa Lignos, RBC Capital Markets Global Head of FX Strategy, says Euro-Sterling looks fairly interesting. ------

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James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist, expects positive PMI surprises from the Eurozone. Steven Cook, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, says compared to previous administrations, the current White House has changed the tone towards Turkey. And Sarah Halzack, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says Macy's investors may be realizing that they got a bit ahead of themselves. 

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Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, says the currency crisis in Turkey is not over. Gordon Johnson, Vertical Group Analyst, is concerned about Tesla's balance sheet. Sharmila Whelan, Asianomics Group Deputy Chief Economist, says the China-Japan relationship is changing at the margin. And Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Research Analyst, says Home Depot has done a very good job online.   

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Mij Rahman, Eurasia Group Europe Practice Head, says he expects Turkey's central bank to hike. Georgette Boele, ABN Amro Bank Currency and Commodity Strategist, provides an EM currency update. Stephen Gandel, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, is unsure about whether or not the SEC will prosecute Elon Musk. And Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, reminds us of the legacy of Nikola Tesla.

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Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman Head of Currency, lays out different options Turkey has to save the lira. Teresa Goody, Former SEC Attorney and The Goody Group Founder & CEO, suggests Elon Musk goes forward with transparency. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Managing Director & Chief Economist, says Turkey's new Finance Minister is a key candidate for change. Phoenix Kalen, Societe Generale Emerging Markets Strategy Director, says that on a day like this, all forecasts are out the window. And Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Global Strategist, notes this is a biggest single day move in a single currency since 2008. 

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Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Global Head of FX Strategy, says at the moment, risk is localized to Turkey. Tuna Amobi, CFRA Media and Entertainment Analyst, sees some hesitation in M&A due to regulatory uncertainties. George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Founder & Chairman, says Americans are vastly overestimating China's capability. And Frances Donald, Manulife Asset Management Head of Macro Strategy, says the U.S. economy is running above potential. 

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David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors CIO & Co-Founder, says trade is now war, not even threatened rhetoric. Pablo Goldberg, BlackRock Head of Emerging Markets Debt, says Turkey has a problem with corporate debt, not with sovereign debt. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Chief Economist & Founder, says global economic growth has pivoted towards Asia. Jeanna Smialek, Bloomberg News Economy Reporter, discusses diversity and representation, or lack thereof, among economists. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, joins to preview his interview with Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg. 

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Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says dynamics in Turkey are unlike other emerging markets. Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says the Fed is exporting tightening to the rest of the world. Tom Singlehurst, Citi Media Analyst, foresees more vertical integration in the music business. And Steve Eisman, Eisman Group Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, questions what Zillow insiders did and did not know as they sold a few weeks back. 

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Geoffrey Yu, UBS Wealth Management Head of U.K. Investment Office, thinks external pressure will be an opportunity for reform in China. Daniel Tannebaum, PWC Principal and Global Sanctions Leader, says from an enforcement standpoint, Iran sanctions remain unclear. Ann Miletti, Wells Fargo Asset Management Lead Portfolio Manager, thinks market strength will continue but not without volatility. Kenneth Shea, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Food & Beverage Analyst, and Jordyn Holman, Bloomberg News Managing Diversity Reporter,  join us to break down what PepsiCo's CEO change may mean for the company.

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James Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, says today's jobs numbers are a reminder of how much hidden unemployment there was during the recession. Mike Darda, MKM Holdings Chief Economist & Chief Market Strategist, says U.S. payrolls are in line with expectations. Larry Kudlow, U.S. National Economic Council Director, says it looks to him like China is declining in growth. Margaret Brennan, CBS "Face the Nation" Host, discusses Thursday's White House briefing on interference in the U.S. political system. And Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, responds to BOE Governor Mark Carney.

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Nejra Cehic, Bloomberg TV Anchor, breaks the BOE's decision to raise interest rates to 0.75 percent. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, finds the BOE's decision hard to justify. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, argues that what matters the most in the U.S. and the U.K. is underemployment, not unemployment. Brian Johnson, Barclays Capital Senior Autos Analyst, sees some light at the end of the tunnel in NAFTA negotiations. And Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, explains the connection between Google and Apple 

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Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Chief Economist,thinks we are arriving at the tightest part of the labor cycle. Emma O'Brien, Bloomberg's Asia Newsdesk Editor, joins us on TV to talk Tesla. Jean-Sebastian Jacques, Rio Tinto CEO, says they're focused on high quality growth. Andrea Orcel, UBS Investment Bank President, tells Francine what global risks he has his eye on. And Douglas Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, offers his opinion on Elon Musk. 

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Diana Amoa, JP Morgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, notes Japan is nowhere near their inflation target. Kim Schoenholtz, NYU Economics Professor, says that by being transparent, central banks condition us to anticipate their behavior. Will Power, Baird Senior Research Analyst, says that Apple is heading in the right direction to fulfill its target. And Paul Donovan, UBS Wealth Management Global Chief Economist, takes a close look at eco data from Japan.

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Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Managing Director of Global Research, shares his definition of full employment. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. and the Americas Programme, has her eye on the U.S. midterm elections. Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, thinks we're overly focused on the shape of the yield curve. Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg News Senior Executive Editor for Economics, joins to discuss her recent interview with the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.

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Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of North American Research, says a media platform that has less than a billion users struggles to be relevant for advertisers. Steve Eisman, Eisman Group Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, explains all the negative signals he sees from Tesla. Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, says economists think demographics, such as a low birth rate, will keep economic growth down. Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, is skeptical of the naysayers on how well the economy is going to do.

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Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says the U.S. is voluntarily choosing to abdicate from its hegemonic role. Mark Lehmann, JMP Securities President, expects Facebook's expenses to bloat for some time. James Bevan, CCLA Investment Management CIO, is enthusiastic for U.S. equities but not for European equities. And Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman Head of EM Currency, believes China will push through the trade war without facing a financial crisis.

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Stephen Roach, Yale University Professor, says global trade has been an engine for growth for developing and developed countries alike. Steven Arons, Bloomberg News German Banks Reporter, thinks that Deutsche Bank has a chance of getting out of their vicious cycle. Eileen Burbidge, Passion Capital Partner, talks space exploration in the age of SpaceX. John Normand, JPMorgan Head of Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy, says Asian currencies are clearly in the line of fire from the Trump administration. Komal Sri-Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies President, joins us to provide his macro outlook. 

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Today we feature Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist. She joins the usual suspects and Bloomberg Intelligence's Paul Sweeney to talk tech regulation and what's trending at hedge funds. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, lays out which EM currencies are most vulnerable to oil prices. And Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, thinks in general, the idea that the U.S. has the upper hand in trade talks is mistaken. 

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John Silvia, Wells Fargo Securities Chief Economist, forecasts a .2-.3% change in potential GDP. Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg Reporter in Tehran, provides an update on U.S.-Iran relations during Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg TV. Tom Michaud, KBW Inc. CEO, thinks bank mergers are a slower and more deliberate process than before the economic crisis. And Ken Langone, Author "I Love Capitalism" & Home Depot Co-Founder, offers his take on Jeff Bezos and Amazon.

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Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short Term Portfolio Manager, breaks down nominal and real interest rates. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist,reviews the history of the Fed's independence. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, worries that President Trump is becoming 'Nixonian.' Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, and Michael McKee, Bloomberg News International Economics & Policy Correspondent, hop on the show to discuss the potential of a currency war. Vincent Cignarella, Bloomberg Americas Global Macro Squawk, and Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, offer their expertise on market and political news of the week. 

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Joseph Quinlan, Head of Market Strategy for U.S. Trust, argues consumers are driving the Chinese economy. Justina Lee, Bloomberg News China Markets Reporter, observes the PBOC may be moving towards an easing bias. Kirk Hartman, Wells Fargo AM Global CIO, thinks Disney had the upper hand in bids to buy 21st Century Fox all along. And further, Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner, notes we still don't know if Disney is going to increase their bid for 21st Century Fox or not. 

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Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest Rates Strategy, says that the Fed is entering a "neutral zone." Rep. Tom Reed (R-NY), House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee member, thinks the long-term economic growth trajectory will not be impacted by the short-term anxiety from the trade war. Randall Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor & Former Fed Governor, says we ought to be open to the possibility that the yield curve flattening does not mean recession. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Senior Political Strategist, predicts Republicans will pick up some seats in the Senate and lose a few in the House in the midterm elections. 

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Admiral Stavridis, The Fletcher School at Tufts University Dean, says President Trump threw U.S. intelligence under the bus in Helsinki. Ian Whittaker, Liberum Media Analyst, notes that Netflix's disappointing results only represent one quarter. Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, says despite escalating tariff threats, EM funds with exposure to China are doing just fine. Stephanie Baker, Bloomberg News Senior Writer, provides an update on Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation. 

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Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice-Chairman, sees the Helsinki Summit as an opportunity for President Trump to take "a leadership role" in global issues. Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Senior Research Fellow of the Global Security Research Program at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs, highlights that U.S. global military and trade power is dependent on its alliance networks. George Friedman, GeoPolitical Futures Chairman, says that a great deal of what Russia does is a "bluff." Chris Granville, TS Lombard Managing Director of EMEA & Global Political Research, talks about the importance of smaller countries such as Finland in Brexit negotiations with the European Union.

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Anthony Gardner, Former U.S. Ambassador to the EU, says it is unprecedented that a U.S. president interferes in U.K. Politics. Alex Wayne, Bloomberg News White House Editor, talks about how President Trump's relationship with the media has changed over the past year. Peter Westmacott, Former U.K. Ambassador to the U.S., says that the Trump-May meeting shows President Trump's preference for bilateral agreements instead of multilateral organizations. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg News Chief White House Correspondent, discusses how the relationship between the U.S. and U.K. has evolved in the Trump era.

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Tina Fordham, Citi Chief Global Political Analyst, says President Trump wants to change the international order. Mickey Levy, Berenberg Chief Economist U.S. & Asia, observes that countries are dependent on each other for trade and that they will ultimately be willing to negotiate. Jacob Parakilas, Chatham House U.S. & the Americas Programme Deputy Head, discusses NATO.  Victoria Hewson, Institute of Economic Affairs Senior Counsel, talks about Britain's negotiating position with the EU. 

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Steve Wieting, Citigroup Private Bank Global Chief Investment Strategist, observes how trade tariffs will impact equity markets. Robin Niblett, Chatham House Director, says he will have his eyes on President Trump's breakfast with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg. Brian Wieser, Pivotal Research Group Senior Analyst, discusses the role that advertising plays at various companies. Kate Warne, Edward Jones Investment Strategist, says businesses are growing by taking advantage of trending cloud computing.

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Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs Professor & Special Advisor to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, says that Brexiteers sold a utopian view and now they cannot deliver. Ken Starr, Former Special Counsel, shares his views on new SCOTUS Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Daniel Kawczynski, Conservative Member of U.K. Parliament for Shrewsbury and Atcham, says that no country has ever successfully negotiated pulling out of the EU. Charles Kupchan, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, argues that Putin wants a weaker West. 

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Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, says she can't remember a time when politics mattered so much for the global economy. Brian Klaas, LSE Professor & Author "The Despot's Apprentice," discusses whether or not President Trump will make serious concessions with Russian President Putin this week. Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-In-Chief Emeritus, says to think of Amazon as a value stock. Greg Stohr, Supreme Court Reporter, looks ahead to President Trump's SCOTUS Justice pick (planned for 9 p.m. ET).

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Noah Feldman, Harvard Law professor and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, on Justice Kennedy's legacy and what to expect from a newly shaped Supreme Court. Clay Lowery, Managing Director at Rock Creek Global Advisors and former Assistant Secretary for International Affairs at the US Treasury Department, on how businesses are reacting to trade war threats.Felix Gillette, writer for Bloomberg Businessweek, on Nintendo's quest to stay alive. Michael Rea, pharmacist, founder and CEO of Rx Savings Solutions, on how drug pricing and the pharmacy landscape will be impacted by Amazon buying PillPack.

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Conrad DeQuadros, RDQ Economics Senior Economist & Founding Partner, has his eye on supply chains amid heightened trade tensions. Alan Krueger, Princeton University Professor of Economics, says the state of the labor market is far from perfect. Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan Professor and Former U.S. Department of Labor Chief Economist, says workers are finding "side hustles" in order to sustain themselves. Kevin Hassett, Council of Economic Advisers Chair, says the labor market is strong. 

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Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains why his forward looking concerns are plentiful. Robert D. Kaplan, Eurasia Group Senior Advisor and Center for a New American Security Fellow, observes that world leaders do not know how to analyze and predict President Trump ahead of his visit to Europe next week. Benn Steil, CFR Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics, says Russia is ratcheting up its actions on NATO's borders. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, discusses how the U.S. could de-escalate and avoid a major trade war. 

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In celebration of July 4th, Tom Keene and Pimm Fox speak to historians and authors Russell Shorto and Gordon Wood on Shorto's newest book, "Revolution Song: A Story of American Freedom." 

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Seth Masters, Former CIO of Bernstein, talks trade frictions between the U.S. and China. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Chief Oil Market Analyst, observes that oil demand growth will start to slow down next year. Carlos Petersen, Eurasia Group Latin America Analyst, examines top priorities of Mexico's new leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Tasha Keeney, ARK Analyst, talks Tesla and their overlooked strategy to become an auto industry leader. 

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Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Adviser, argues that Europe should take steps to respond to the trade provocations from the U.S. Tom Petrie, Petrie Partners Chairman, says the use of new technologies in the oil industry are a response to global demand growth. Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, discusses President Trump's race to pick a Supreme Court justice. Julian Kheel, The Points Guy Senior Analyst, notes that as long as earnings go up, the market will go up.

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Kate Moore, BlackRock Chief Equity Strategist, says she expects quite strong earnings across a huge variety of sectors in the second quarter. David Woo, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of Global Rates, says he's bullish about the U.S. economy. Travis Lenkner, Keller Lenkner Managing Partner, says Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are similar candidates for the Supreme Court seat. Dr. Christopher Smart, Barings Head of Global Macro and Geopolitical Research, discusses the strained relationship between the U.S. and Russia.

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Elisa Martinuzzi, Bloomberg News EMEA Finance & Investing Managing Editor, says margins will remain very thin in Europe for the foreseeable future. Stephen Roach, Yale University Senior Lecturer, says the Trump administration is looking for President Xi to capitulate on his core strategy of innovation, industrial policy, and pan regional leadership. Noah Feldman, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, and Greg Stohr, Bloomberg Supreme Court Reporter, join to update us on yesterday's Supreme Court decisions. 

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Kathy Fisher, Bernstein Head of Wealth & Investment Strategies, says the economy is strong and they're advising their clients to maintain their allocations. Robert Shiller, Yale Sterling Professor of Economics and Nobel Laureate, observes that the U.S. has a big international diplomacy problem. David Goldman, Macrostrategy President, proposes the U.S. should organize a systematic brain drain by bringing the best tech professionals from China to the U.S. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, thinks the dollar is very strong. 

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Enda Curran, Bloomberg News Chief Asia Correspondent, says the U.S. is going to step up its scrutiny of Chinese investment in the U.S. Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Executive Vice President & Market Strategist, predicts that the global economy will grow about $95 trillion this year. Geoff Dennis, UBS Head of Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy, says that dollar euro is the best indicator of dollar strength in emerging markets. Deborah Lehr, Paulson Institute Vice Chairman, thinks that President Trump and Xi have a very good working relationship. Karen Ubelhart, Bloomberg Intelligence Industrials Analyst, joins to recap headlines that General Electric is selling its distributed power unit to Advent. 

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Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, says uncertainty about the tariff war is proving to be painful. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Head of Investment and Portfolio Strategies, advises her clients to have the maximum level of diversification in equity markets. Paul Sankey, Mizuho Oil Analyst and Managing Director, observes the global economy is stronger than people appreciate. And Brad DeLong, UC Berkeley Professor of Economics, says the 21st century won't be an American century if President Trump's trade and immigration policies continue. 

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Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Professor of Economics, says there are no data which support a BOE rate hike. Wilbur Ross, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, thinks finding workers is the biggest problem for American industry. Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit Vice Chairman, says labor in many markets is very tight. And Susan Lund, McKinsey Global Institute Director of Research, observes corporate debt has tripled in size since the financial crisis.

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Brian Levitt, OppenheimerFunds Senior Investment Strategist, says a trade war could lead to a stronger dollar. Elizabeth Economy, CFR Senior Fellow & Author of "The Third Revolution", says tariffs are good for shock value but past that, they don't do much. And Bloomberg's Senior Executive Editor for Economics Stephanie Flanders hosts a panel of central bankers in Sintra, Portugal. We hear from ECB President Mario Draghi and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

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Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Chief International Economist, asks what the Chinese retaliation may look like against U.S. tariffs. Vince Reinhart, Standish Chief Economist and Investment Strategist, thinks the Fed may have a problem knowing when to stop hiking rates. Edward Alden, Council on Foreign Relations Bernard L. Schwartz Senior Fellow, says the U.S. is on the verge of a trade war with all of its trading partners. And Suzanne Tager, Bain & Company's Retail and Consumer Products Practices Senior Director, says retail stores are not dead but their role has changed.

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Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, says the Chinese economy has opened up quite dramatically. Doug Peebles, AB CIO of Fixed Income, says investment grade average credit quality has never been as low as it is right now. Carlos Gutierrez, Former U.S. Commerce Secretary, thinks the current immigration policy is not good for the U.S. And Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of North American Research, updates us on media mergers.

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William Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says the U.S. is going to be the engine of growth for the global economy. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, ponders if U.S. trade policy is going to mimic the Iran or the Korea model. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest-Rates Strategy, says the curve is still the single best indicator for a recession. And Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner, says historically, Comcast is not comfortable with large amounts of debt.

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Robert Sinche, Amherst Pierpont Securities Global Strategist, says the current U.S. administration has done a lot to stimulate the economy. Jane Foley, Rabobank Senior Currency Analyst, thinks many central bankers are assuming that wage inflation will rise.Richard Greenfield, BTIG Media and Technology Analyst, says changes in consumer behavior are spurring rapid consolidation in media. David Rubenstein, The Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chairman, predicts we'll see more media transactions of size getting done quickly. 

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Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, advises to be careful about the noise around headline CPI.  Ian Whittaker, Liberum Head of European Media Research, analyzes the AT&T-Time Warner deal approval. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says we could be talking about an inverted yield curve by the end of the year. Eli Lake, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, thinks Kim Jong Un is a monster. 

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