Bloomberg Surveillance

Richard Attias, chairman of Richard Attias & Associates, says French voters are fed up with the traditional political elite and are writing a new chapter in French politics. Julia Coronado, chief economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives, says tax reform talks are "smoke and mirrors." David Rothkopf, CEO and editor of the FP Group, says there's a global anti-establishment backlash. Finally, George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, says it's not out of the question that Marine Le Pen could win the French presidential election, following the surprise upsets of Brexit and Trump. (Corrects misspelling of Coronado.)

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Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist at the IMF, says the French election isn't a big short-term risk and the lack of informed economics debate is an issue. Prior to that, Jason Furman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, says economic problems have been increasing since the 1950s. Alice Rivlin, a former vice chair of the Fed, says the U.S. political system's so polarized that the country isn't getting anything done. Jacob Frenkel, chairman of JPMorgan Chase International, says geopolitics are the sources of economic uncertainty. Finally, Alan Blinder, a former vice chair of the Fed, says the U.S. isn't going back to the nominal interest rates to which investors had become accustomed.

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Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Fed, says three Fed rate hikes is still a good baseline and that the central bank's unwinding of its balance sheet should be phased in and gradual. Prior to that, John Lipsky, former first managing director of the IMF, says international collaboration has real substance and holds up the promise of better economic growth. Finally, Gideon Rose, the editor of Foreign Affairs magazine, says the Trump administration is confused on Syria and trade with China.

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the U.S. market is the most expensive relative to others and that the market today is anticipating a more centrist outcome with the French elections. Prior to that, Amherst Pierpont's Bob Sinche says U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's snap election is an aggressive move in solidifying her leadership. Hiroshi Watanabe, president of the Institute for International Monetary Affairs, says monetary and fiscal policies, along with structural reform, need to take place simultaneously. Finally, Frederic Mishkin, a professor at Columbia Business School, says the Fed expanded its balance sheet to lower interest rates on the long end of the yield curve, which is much more important to consumers.

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Dominic Konstam, Deutsche Bank Securities Global Rates Research Head, said a weak sterling reflects the U.K. may struggle to get a good Brexit deal. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer & Co. Chief Investment Strategist, said the VIX has been remarkably low as equity markets look for U.S. economic expansion. Anthony Scaramucci, a Trump adviser, said the White House is more stable than it looks. Dennis Gartman, Gartman Letter Publisher, said it's still a bull market for the dollar. Linda McMahon, administrator at the U.S. Small Business Administration, said the SBA will stay separate.

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Steve Case, co-founder of AOL, discusses the outlook for technology and innovation and says U.S. startups need immigrants. Julian Emanuel, an equity and derivatives strategist at UBS, says markets are in a wait-and-see mode. Finally, Mike Mayo, an independent banking analyst, says banks are hardwired for safety, but not for better governance.

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Narayana Kocherlakota, a Bloomberg View columnist and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, says it would be hard for Trump to say that Janet Yellen hasn't done her job. Prior to that, Michael Darda, MKM Partners' chief economist, says the Fed's on course for quarter-to-quarter rate hikes. Ken Leon, CFRA Research's director of industry and equities, says JPMorgan didn't exhibit its normal across-the-board strength in earnings. Finally, Emmanuel Kachikwu, Nigeria's oil minister, says OPEC is struggling with U.S. production increases.

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IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde says protectionism's a threat and we should assess currency moves on a global basis. Marc Chandler, the head of foreign exchange at Brown Brothers Harriman, says geopolitical tensions will eventually settle down. Finally, James Stavridis, the dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, says the mutual history of the U.S. and Russia can be a positive.

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Bob Michele, JPMorgan's chief investment officer, says small and mid-cap companies in the U.S. are fine and that's being reflected in small-business confidence. Prior to that, Nomura Securities' George Goncalves says central banks don't like being in the limelight. Finally, George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, says North Korea appears to be close to having nuclear weapons.

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Toyota Motor President Wil James and Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin discuss Toyota's $1.33 billion investment in a Kentucky plant. Prior to that, Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, says the economy's 2 percent growth rate seems to be more than enough to keep the unemployment rate falling. Finally, the Brookings Institution's Thomas Wright says Trump didn't send a particularly strong message with the Syrian air strikes.

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Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs president who is now director of the National Economic Council, says the U.S. needs a 21st-Century Glass-Steagall Act and that deregulation is one of the easier things the White House can do. Prior to that, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, says inflation will pierce the Fed's 2 percent goal later this year. Neel Kashkari, the former Pimco head of global equities who is now president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, says we need to keep pushing to end "too big to fail." Dennis Ross, a counselor at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says hard power is a necessary part in effective diplomacy. Finally, Bill Gross of Janus Capital Management says the focus should be on productivity growth.

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Gary Locke, a former U.S. ambassador to China, says a border tax would affect China and raise the price of imported goods. Prior to that, Stephen Roach, a professor at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, says China isn't manipulating its currency. Jerome Schneider, PIMCO's head of short-term and funding desk, says the Fed is in the process of a "hand off" to fiscal policy. Finally, Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics, says the labor market is healing.

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Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling and a Bloomberg View columnist, discusses the Japanese Yen and says China's growth is slowing. Prior to that, Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief U.S. equity strategist, says S&P 500 valuation's at a 15-year high, but may not have found its peak. Nancy McLernon, CEO of the Organization for International Investment, says lobbying gets a bad rap but it's educating. Toby Cosgrove, CEO of Cleveland Clinic, says we haven't gotten the right aspects of health-care reform.

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Bloomberg View columnist Eli Lake says Susan Rice's actions may not be illegal but improper is another question. Prior to that, Bob Hormats, the former Goldman Sachs executive and State Department official who is now vice-chairman at Kissinger Associates, says Trump doesn't know much about China and will have to listen to President Xi Jinping when they meet later this week. Tim Armstrong says he picked the name Oath for Yahoo and AOL's re-branding to show commitment to businesses and consumers. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank's co-head of FX research, says the South African rand isn't a currency for rookie FX traders. Finally, Itay Michaeli, an auto analyst at Citigroup, says there's not an auto bubble for lending with subprime loans.

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E.J. Dionne, the Washington Post columnist and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says Democrats need to craft a compact message for the working-class voters who are hurting the most in today's economy. Prior to that, Sebastien Galy, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities, says a weaker British pound is led by a stronger dollar and a dovish Bank of England. Ted Alden, a senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations, says the Trump administration wants to get a sense of China's willingness to cooperate on North Korea. Finally, Scott Wren, Wells Fargo's chief equity strategist, says markets will be driven by policies that are implemented.

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Steve Eisman, a money manager at Neuberger Berman Group, discusses bank regulation and says too little leverage in the banking system is bad. Peter Navarro, the director of the National Trade Council, says the U.S. has significant trade deficits with 16 nations and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will take a comprehensive look at trade balances. New York Fed President William Dudley says a couple more rate hikes this year seems reasonable. Finally, Mohamed El-Erian, a Bloomberg View columnist, says Brexit is a response to the lack of inclusive growth.

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Michael Holland, chairman of Holland & Co., says getting some kind of corporate tax reform in the next six months will help the markets. Absolute Strategy Research's Ian Harnett says the Fed will have difficulty raising rates for a third or fourth time this year. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, says there is both internal pressure and pressure from the European Union for Prime Minister Theresa May to unify the U.K. after Brexit. Finally, Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, says New York City real estate prices are moving sideways or down.

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Willem Buiter, Citigroup's chief economist, says faster economic growth requires structural reforms, more capital expenditure and an elimination of trade barriers. Daniel Yergin, IHS' vice chairman, says Germany has kept the EU together. Finally, Vitor Gaspar, the IMF's fiscal affairs director, says the link between politics and economics was a tradition until the 20th century -- something that's been lost recently.

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David Herro, CIO of Harris Associates, says Germany is one of the worst markets for banking because it has a competitive marketplace. Prior to that, Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup's chief U.S. equity strategist, says the reaction to Trump's election in markets have been off-the-cuff and not real investing. Finally, Joachim Fels, PIMCO's global economic advisor, says 3-to-4 percent growth is unrealistic now.

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Anthony Crescenzi, a Pimco money manager, says inaction in Washington has hurt the U.S. economy. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says tax reform isn't the next issue for the Trump administration. Jim Kochan, Wells Fargo's chief fixed-income strategist, says the high-yield market still offers value as yields will move sideways through 2017. Finally, Michael Cohen, Barclays' head of energy commodities research, says most commodity prices are driven lower by macro developments.

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Brian Levitt, a senior strategist at OppenheimerFunds, says there's going to be a pause in markets as we deal with the reality of politics. Peter Tague, Citigroup's co-head of global M&A, says it's tougher for private equity to make money now. Finally, UBS Securities' Julian Emanuel says a lot of pockets in the market are at historically high valuations.

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Anne-Marie Slaughter, the president of New America Foundation, says the Russians hacked the presidential election and the U.S. needs to respond, but the national trauma of 9/11 and the Iraq War has made the U.S. more timid and reluctant to use force. Prior to that, Deutsche Bank's Sebastien Galy says the catalyst for a stronger dollar will be better data in the U.S. Then, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity's chief market strategist, says you should never sell until you're in close proximity to a recession. Nicholas Burns, a professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School, says you need to work across borders to counter modern terrorism. Finally, Erwin Chemerinsky, the dean of University of California, Irvine's School of Law, says Neil Gorsuch is smart and articulate but isn't answering many questions in Congress.

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Zeke Emanuel, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, says there should be a bipartisan approach to health care. Prior to that, Harm Bandholz, UniCredit's chief U.S. economist, says Trump and European countries are the losers on globalization and technological progress. Don Straszheim, Evercore ISI's head of China research, says China's in Draghi mode. Finally, Yale's Robert Shiller says Trump oversimplifies and implies it's easy to fix problems.

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Admiral James Stavridis, the dean of Tufts University's Fletcher School, says Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's decision to skip April's NATO meeting is a violation of "diplomacy 101." William Rhodes, president and CEO of William Rhodes Global Advisors, says the banking culture needs to improve to restore trust in banking. Paul Quinsee, JPMorgan's global head of equities, says revenue growth and currency movements will help profit growth this year in Europe. Finally, Neil Shearing, Capital Economics' chief emerging markets economist, says the strength of the Mexican peso and other emerging market currencies has been surprising.

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Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Professor of International and Public Affairs, said President Trump has turned the world against the U.S. Phil Verleger, PKVerleger President, said technology will lead to an overwhelming drop in oil costs. Jack Bogle, Vanguard Founder, said active investing has moved to the ETF space. Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, said he's not worried about the Fed falling behind the curve.

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Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, said equities will escape the sideways market. Doug Elmendorf, Former CBO Director, said it's time to scale back entitlement programs. Nicholas Burns, Harvard Professor, said budget cuts would decimate the State Department. Stan Collender, MSLGROUP Executive Vice President, said President Trump's budget is masquerading as a government document. Steven Rattner, Willett Advisors Chairman, said it's hard to see the long-term growth rate above 2%. Andrew Gurman, American Medical Association President, said that the science on vaccines is totally clear.

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Jason Furman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, discusses Donald Trump's budget proposal. Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says the Bank of England is on the sidelines for Brexit. Sebastian Mallaby, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the Fed should be more paranoid about asset prices overshooting. Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says Rex Tillerson is having a rough start to the year. Willem Buiter, Citigroup's chief economist, says the Dutch election outcome is a personal punch to Geert Wilders. Finally, Tom Nichols discusses his book, "The Death of Expertise: The Campaign Against Established Knowledge and Why It Matters."

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Alan Ruskin, global co-head of head of currency research at Deutsche Bank Securities, warns that U.S. investors risk losing their "animal spirits." Joe Antos, a health economist at the American Enterprise Institute who is critical of the Affordable Care Act, says Republicans should take time to refine their health-care plan. Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners, says the unexpected often moves markets. Finally, Jim Palmer, former Hall of Fame pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles, discusses the business of baseball.

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Andy Slavitt, the former administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid, says politicians must make progress on the health-care bill, without pride of authorship. Prior to that, Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro's head of U.S. economics, says animal spirits are returning to America, but not in Europe. Bob Haber, Proficio Capital Partners' founder, says he's sitting on the sidelines for private equity. Finally, Michael Froman, a former U.S. Trade representative, says several TPP countries want to move ahead on the deal without the U.S.

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Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, says there's room for debate on where to spend federal dollars. Prior to that, Carl Weinberg, the chief economist at High Frequency Economics, says he's skeptical that GDP growth will be as high as the Trump administration has promised. Doug Holtz-Eakin, the president of the American Action Forum, discusses the Congressional Budget Office's review of the proposed American Health Care Act. Finally, Greg Valliere, the chief global strategist at Horizon Investments, says Medicaid cuts are a non-starter.

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Janus Capital's Bill Gross says it's a stretch to think that job growth will continue. Prior to that, Michael Cannon, the Cato Institute's director of health policy studies, says the country needs a full repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Willem Buiter, Citigroup's chief economist, says there's a risk of the rise of fascism in Europe. Finally, Alan Krueger, an economics professor at Princeton University, says the U.S. corporate tax system is awful.

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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says consumer and small-business confidence have skyrocketed under Trump's growth agenda. Prior to that, former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet says that productivity in the U.S and E.U. isn't rising fast enough. Nathan Sheets, the U.S. Treasury Department's former undersecretary for international affairs, says a key question is how committed America is to a free trading order across the globe. Finally, Steve Wieting, Citi Private Bank's global chief strategist, says he trusts polls less and relies more on politics in investing.

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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says he's still studying a border adjustment tax and hasn't yet taken a position on it. Prior to that, Kate Moore, BlackRock's chief equity strategist, says low volatility doesn't indicate complacency -- instead, it suggests paralysis and confusion. Finally, Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Nicolaus' chief economist, says it's clear underemployment is significant when looking at wages.

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Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, discusses the role that the House of Lords plays in the Brexit process. Catherine Mann, the OECD's chief economist, says a U.S. border tax won't achieve its aims. Finally, Howard Dean, a former Democratic presidential candidate, says Trump's health-care proposal is "pretty bad."

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Olivier Blanchard, the former IMF chief economist, says forecasts for productivity growth are uncertain. Prior to that, Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the right economic nationalist conversations to be having are those that surround corporate tax reform. Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says we've plucked the lowest-hanging fruit when it comes to the growth outlook for the U.S. Finally, Marc Chandler, the head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, says the market's expectation of a March rate hike doesn't change the odds of three rate increases this year.

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Marvin Goodfriend, an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University, says that if the Federal Reserve were really committed to price stability, retirees would be in a much better situation today. Brian Wieser, an analyst at Pivotal Research, says Snap has created a successful product but the bigger question is whether Snap can increase revenue. David Kirkpatrick, CEO and founder of Techonomy Media, says Snap isn't like Twitter because it's got a real business. Finally, USB Securities' Julian Emanuel says enthusiasm isn't as high as it was in 1999 or 2000, suggesting valuations may still move higher.

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Alan Blinder, former vice-chairman of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve, expects three to four rate hikes this year. Prior to that, Bill Lee, Citigroup's head of North American economics, says sentiment data aren't good predictors of real data or the economy. Jim Millstein, former chief restructuring officer at the U.S. Treasury, says the confirmation process has become uncivil and we have to change it if we want to get qualified candidates into public service. Finally, Mike Mayo, a former CLSA banking analyst, discusses the future of sell-side research and banking regulation.

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Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says Democrats are in the wilderness when it comes to responding to President Trump, whose change in tone will yield positive dividends. Prior to that, John Silvia, Wells Fargo's chief economist, says it will be a struggle to get 3- to 4-percent GDP growth on a sustained basis. Admiral James Stavridis, the dean of Tufts University's Fletcher School, says promises are pouring in from NATO but the U.S. hasn't yet seen money from NATO allies. Finally, Steve Rattner, chairman of Willett Advisors, says that replacing Obamacare will result in a smaller health-care system that costs the government less.

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Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore ISI, says the U.S. economy will expand by 2.5 percent this year and we'll know the economy is at full employment once wages start to rise. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO's head of public policy, says tax policy is the No. 1 question from clients. Martin Hegarty, the head of BlackRock's inflation-linked bond portfolios, says core inflation is on a path to 2.7 percent at the end of 2018. Finally, Max Baucus, the former U.S. Ambassador to China and former senator from Montana, says we have to work together to make sure the tax code is efficient and that people get adequate healthcare.

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David Herro, Harris Associates' deputy chairman and CIO, says valuations aren't overpriced. Prior to that, Jonathan Golub, RBC Capital Markets' chief U.S. market strategist, says inflation expectations are rising and there's no sign of a looming recession. Dr. Steve Corwin, president and CEO of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, discusses the debate over Obamacare and says access to care isn't insurance. Finally, Thomas Wright, the director of the Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institute, says President Trump is looking to see what he can tear up.

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Terry McAuliffe, Virginia's Democratic governor, says President Trump has made many mistakes in his first 30 days. Prior to that, Merrill Lynch's Joe Quinlan says politicians have to pay attention to the angry populist movement. Finally, George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, says Trump is playing cleanup on immigration enforcement from Presidents Obama, Bush and Clinton.

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Michael Mayo, a banking analyst at CLSA, says banks will close 10,000 branches in the next several years as customers accept mobile banking. Prior to that, Ed Morse, Citigroup's global head of commodities research, says OPEC needs to prolong cuts because of the oil glut. Finally, John Herrmann, a rate strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ, says the market is pricing in too low of a chance that there will be a Fed rate hike in March.

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Stephen Roach, a professor at Yale University, says U.S. markets are largely ignoring risks because it's human behavior to believe in the message of growth rather than the reality of political upheaval. Sam Zell, the chairman of Equity Group Investments, says immigration is core to what built the U.S. Also, BNP Paribas' Stewart Warther says U.S. equity markets are getting close to being fully priced. Finally, Vince Reinhart, the chief economist at Standish Mellon, says stronger growth will be coupled with tighter Fed monetary policy than previously thought.

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Nicholas Burns, a professor at Harvard University, says many Europeans are concerned that the U.S. is no longer leading the West. Prior to that, Chris Verrone, Strategas Research's head of technical analysis, says there's a lot of bearishness with respect to the pound and the euro. Craig Moffett, founder and senior analyst at MoffettNathanson, says Verizon and AT&T would benefit the most from consolidation. Finally, Dennis Ross, who conducted Arab-Israeli diplomacy for three U.S. presidents, says destroying ISIS is an ideological challenge, not just a military one.

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Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair discusses Brexit and the importance of Theresa May's relationship with Donald Trump. Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds' CIO of growth equities, says investors need to brace for more turbulence in the markets. Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at Berkeley, says public support for the euro is declining. Finally, Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, says a new National Security Adviser would be well advised to bring in their own team.

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Stanley Fischer, vice-chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, says the Fed seems to be headed towards its expected rate hike path and wage growth has started. Jason Furman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, says we aren't far from full employment. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, says 2018 is the earliest the Fed will address the balance sheet. Finally, Steve Rattner, chairman of Willett Advisors, says Donald Trump isn't even trying to find the most qualified experts.

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Bloomberg View's Eli Lake responds to Donald Trump's tweet about his column, "The Political Assassination of Michael Flynn." Prior to that, Bob Nardelli, CEO and chairman of Xlr-8, says despite distractions, Donald Trump and his administration will be "laser-focused" on his commitments and what got him into office. Citi Private Bank's Steve Wieting says corporate earnings will reach records this year. Finally, Daniel Tarullo, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, says the largest banks still need regulatory attention.

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Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS, says Saudi Arabia is taking the lead when it comes to compliance with OPEC's oil production cuts. Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs magazine, discusses the resignation of National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and what's next for the National Security Council. Shahab Jalinoos, global head of FX strategy at Credit Suisse, says there's more downside risk for the euro as the French election nears. Robin Niblett, the director of Chatham House, says President Trump sees unpredictability as a way to project strength. Finally, Bob Haber, co-founder of Proficio Capital Partners, says investors need extreme diversification.

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John Allison, former president and CEO of the Cato Institute, says the Federal Reserve made mistakes in monetary policy that had severe consequences. Prior to that, Jim McCaughan, CEO of Principal Global Investors, says a weak banking system, particularly in Italy and Germany, will constrain European growth. Bob Sinche, Amherst Pierpont Securities' global strategist, says the pound will weaken to $1.20 later this year. Finally, Peter Feaver, a professor at Duke University, says the rollout of the ban on incoming refugees wasn't thought through and was ineffective.

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Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen says the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial to its success and she's concerned by moves in Congress to second-guess the Fed's decisions. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says Donald Trump may modify the executive order on immigration. Finally, Noah Feldman, a professor at Harvard Law School and Bloomberg View columnist, says judges don't respond well to bullying and don't like people stepping on their toes.

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