Bloomberg Surveillance

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief economist, says Italy leaving the Eurozone would be an "end of the world event," while TS Lombard Research's chief economist, Shweta Singh, says things won't dramatically change after the Italian referendum. Then, Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report, says the OPEC deal is great news for U.S. producers. Finally, Anthony Scaramucci, co-managing partner of SkyBridge Capital and an adviser to Donald Trump, says Trump will use trade tariffs as a last resort.

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Tom Keene and David Gura talk to Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, about what we know about Donald Trump's economic plan. Then, Bob Greifeld, Nasdaq's CEO, says 2017 will be a year of increased IPOs. Also, George Bory, the head of credit strategy at Wells Fargo, says companies may see a powerful trickle-down from Trump's economic plan. Finally, Mortimer Singer, the CEO of Marvin Traub Associates, says he's never seen anything like the way midtown Manhattan retail has been negatively affected by the security around Trump Tower.

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David Gura and Francine Lacqua, filling in for Tom Keene, discuss Fidel Castro's legacy and what his death means for the future of Cuba with Julia Sweig, a professor at University of Texas at Austin and the author of "Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know." Prior to that, Sheila Bair, the president of Washington College and former chairman of the FDIC, says the populist backlash to the economic crisis helped Donald Trump win the election. Then, Gideon Rose, the editor of Foreign Affairs Magazine, says it's unlikely Trump will live up to his campaign rhetoric. Finally, Bill Lee, Citi Research's head of North American economics, says Trump won't be able to reflate the economy until 2018.

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Howard Davidowitz, Davidowitz & Associates' chairman, says we will see more brick and mortar stores close as online sales grow. Then, Jerry Storch, CEO of Hudson's Bay, says that while 85 to 90 percent of sales are taking place in a brick and mortar store, more of the growth is taking place online. Finally, Don Rissmiller, Strategas Research Partners' chief economist, says the biggest thing he's worried about is rising tensions with China over trade.

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Glenn Hubbard, the dean of Columbia Business School, says he is optimistic about the policy agenda that President-elect Donald Trump has set out. Prior to that, Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds' CIO for growth, says Amazon will have an outstanding holiday season. Finally, Harm Bandholz, UniCredit's chief U.S. economist, discusses what could happen to the U.S. economy under Trump.

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Komal Sri-Kumar, the president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, and Kim Schoenholtz, a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, discuss the possibility of a "rules-based" Federal Reserve. Prior to that, Alberto Gallo, Algebris Investments' head of macro strategies, says the U.S. and U.K. populism wave is emerging in Europe. Finally, Jim Paulsen, a Wells Capital Management strategist, says dollar strength is peaking and will come down over the next couple of years.

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Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics, says not being able to have a grown up conversation about long-term fiscal sustainability is a real issue. Prior to that, Martin Feldstein, the National Bureau of Economic Research's president emeritus, says exceptionally high asset prices are a risk to the economy. Then, Pablo Goldberg, a BlackRock portfolio manager, says it's crucial to hedge against dollar moves. Finally, Daragh Maher, HSBC's head of FX strategy, says he's still bearish on sterling.

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St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says Donald Trump's policies may improve U.S. productivity. Prior to that, UBS' Geoffrey Yu says the Turkish Lira is among the most vulnerable to changes in exchange rates. Then, Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, says Trump's fiscal policy has several layers of uncertainty. Finally, Joachim Fels, PIMCO's global economic adviser, says populism means the EU may break up in the next crisis.

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Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, says that politics never comes up in Fed meetings. Prior to that, Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief economist, says fiscal stimulus is the wrong thing at the wrong time. Then, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays' head of macro research, says under a Donald Trump economy, economic drag from trade barriers should be more than offset by economic stimulus. Finally, Sam Stovall, S&P's head of U.S. equity strategy, says returns average 15 percent in years of a GOP government.

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Alex Salmond, the former First Minister of Scotland, and Holger Schmieding, Berenberg's chief economist, discuss the election of Donald Trump, Brexit and the rise of protectionism. Then, Joseph Nye, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, says that Trump can't let Vladimir Putin off the hook. Also, Jim O'Neill, the former U.K. Treasury Minister, discusses how the United Kingdom fits into Trump's foreign policy. Then, Charles Wyplosz, a professor of economics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, says that Trump's victory is making him rethink Marine Le Pen's chances in the French election. Finally, Dane Davis, an analyst at Barclays Commodities, says Trump is making metals great again.

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Tom Keene and David Gura talk to Robert Skidelsky, a historian & House of Lords member, about Donald Trump's economic plan, which Skidelsky says is broadly a fiscal stimulus package. Then, Luigi Zingales, a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, says Trump's inexperience means he will depend heavily on his advisers. Also, former Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern says the Fed will be cautious about placing any bets until they understand what fiscal policies will actually be implemented. Finally, former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet says Trump's victory and Brexit are signs of people's anxiety.

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David Folkerts-Landau, Deutsche Bank's chief economist, says Italy is better outside the Eurozone if the country refuses to reform. Then, Tom Keene and David Gura talk to Frank Newport, Gallup Poll's editor-in-chief, about the difficulties found in state-by-state polling. Also, Charles Dumas, TS Lombard's chief economist, discusses the future of the Federal Reserve under a Donald Trump presidency and says inflation will be up to 2 percent next year and 3 percent the following year. Finally, Julian Jessop, Capital Economics' chief global economist, says that rising bond bond yields represent the long-awaited normalization of interest rates.

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Tom Keene and David Gura talk to Niall Ferguson, a senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, about the role of populism in Donald Trump's election. Then, Willem Buiter, the chief economist at Citi, discusses what the role of the Fed could be under President Trump. Then, Robert Sinche, a global strategist at Amherst Pierpont, says he's still looking for an overshoot in the Mexican peso. Also, Rich Greenfield, an analyst at BTIG, says ESPN's struggling to expand because viewers have an infinite number of other options to watch. Finally, Bret Baier, host of "Special Report" on Fox News, says the Republican party has no excuses to not get anything done.

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Steve Rattner, Willett Advisors' chairman, says Donald Trump's policies can transform the U.S. economy. Prior to that, John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, says the housing market is recovering and new home buyers are slowly entering the market. And Harris Associates' David Herro says that Trump was able to convince Americans that he understands them. Narayana Kocherlakota, a Bloomberg View contributor and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, says the central bank has tools to dampen inflationary risk. Finally, Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo says the federal government needs to step up with infrastructure spending because states can't afford to bear the entire burden.

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On an extended episode of Bloomberg Surveillance, Tom Keene and David Gura discuss the election of Donald Trump. Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg View columnist and chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, says Trump's victory shows how quickly the improbable can become reality. Bob Hormats, Kissinger Associates' vice chairman, says if President-elect Donald Trump is wise, he will reach out to Hillary Clinton to repair the fractured country. Then, Tom Barrack, the founder of Colony Capital, says the cadence of Donald Trump as President will be much difference than the cadence of Donald Trump as candidate. Tim Pawlenty, CEO of the Financial Services Roundtable and former Governor of Minnesota, says a Trump presidency could benefit banks. Also, Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, says we will see an incredible amount of international hedging away from America. Finally, David Malpass, founder of Encima Global, says the GOP-led House and Senate will be critical for Trump's policy implementation.

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On election day 2016, Tom Keene and David Gura talk to Yale professor Stephen Roach, who says the decency of the American people will prevail when choosing the next president. Then they speak with Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, who says the GOP may split into two major parties after the U.S. election. Also, Harris Associates' David Herro says a Clinton presidency and a GOP congress is the best market outcome. Finally, Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, says he's a big fan of gridlock -- and that a Clinton presidency with a Republican House and Senate is the best of all worlds.

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Tom Keene and David Gura talk to former the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who says that Fed forecasts are no better than those of a good economist. Prior to that, RBC Capital Markets' Jonathan Golub says fiscal policy attempts to move something that is unmovable while Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics' chief economist, says the Fed is tightening in December no matter who wins the election. Then, James Stavridis, dean of The Fletcher School at Tufts University, says if Hillary Clinton wins, she will unlikely be different from President Obama. Finally, Dan Clifton, Strategas Research Partners' head of policy research, says Hillary Clinton has suggested she's going to try to be bipartisan early on in the administration if she wins.

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Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Capital Management, says people should be cautious despite a good jobs report because structural changes such as technology are displacing jobs. Prior to that, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, says the jobs data bar isn't set high for a December Fed rate hike. Alan Krueger, a Princeton University professor, says he doesn't put a lot of weight on today's job report ahead of the Fed's decision next month.

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Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, says pound strength after the UK vote was significant, but whether it lasts is a big question mark. Charles Dumas, chief economist at TSL Research, says the BOE may exceed their inflation target by the end of 2016. Danny Blanchflower, a former BOE policymaker & Dartmouth professor, says the U.K. court ruling forces the government to make a more clear position on their bargaining position to leave the European Union. Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, says free trade uncertainty is a big negative.

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Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, says the Fed is excessively sensitive to what it thinks the markets might do and how markets react. Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, says Janet Yellen and central banks ought to be nearly invisible. Ken Doctor, author and columnist of Newsonomics, says we have half the number of journalists in local newsrooms than we had in 1990. Anne-Marie Slaughter, New America CEO & Princeton professor, says part of the problem of globalization is that it has left so many people who aren't part of a global network behind.

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Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Holdings, says the Fed desperately wants to move short rates up and is likely to do so in December. John Glass, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, says Shake Shack is unique within the market because of its fantastic brand and high volume of sales. Jay Winik, a historian commissioned by the Council on Foreign Relations, says the election isn't rigged, but we may be facing warning signs that we need to make our voting system more secure.

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Steve Rattner, Willett Advisors chairman, says that a divided government, an ongoing email investigation and a low approval rating should make Americans depressed about a possible Clinton presidency. Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says the euro economy hasn't taken any significant hit from Brexit so far. Steve Wieting, global chief strategist at Citi Private Bank, says central banks are on a reasonable course heading into 2017. Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners, says Disney has its own problems, including falling earnings estimates, and isn't a likely bidder for Twitter.

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Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, says rates are in a long-term bottoming process. Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, says Google has a lot to be excited about and has kept revenue growth going. Sara Senatore, a senior analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, says the Chipotle brand is still very good. Robert Peck, senior director of internet research at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, says big tech companies are continuing to grow and it shows the power and scale of companies like Google and Amazon.

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Bloomberg Intelligence's Paul Sweeney weighs in on Twitter cutting nine percent of its workforce. Seth Masters, chief investment officer at Bernstein Global Wealth Management, says bond investors should shorten duration as long-duration debt faces price risk with rising interest rates. Ira Jersey, senior portfolio manager at OppenheimerFunds, says he is overweight on emerging markets and bullish on Brazil. Ken Sena, managing director at Evercore ISI, comments on Twitter's earnings and the AT&T and Time Warner merger.

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Dominic Konstam, global head of rates research at Deutsche Bank, says the U.S. will have to consider negative rates on a five- to 10-year view. Walter Piecyk, a BTIG tech analyst, says Apple needs to focus on getting iPhone volumes up to gain Samsung customers who don't have a product. David Kostin, chief strategist at Goldman Sachs, says top-line revenue growth is likely to grow four to five percent. Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, says there is slack in the suburban markets and it may take another year for it to tighten like it has in the city.

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Kate Moore, chief equity strategist at BlackRock, says nimble and different companies are capturing growth. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, says a low-growth economy is giving rise to the politics of anger. Michael Chertoff, chairman of the Chertoff Group, says Yahoo's failure to disclose the hacking of 500 million accounts will have an impact on the merger with Verizon. John Engler, Business Roundtable president and a former three-term governor of Michigan, says we need to retrain people who have lost jobs to fit with our new economy.

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Three experts on media and telecom weigh in on the AT&T and Time Warner merger. Scott Galloway, a professor of marketing at New York University, says we are at peak advertising and people will pay to opt out of advertising. Craig Moffett, a partner and senior research analyst at MoffettNathanson, says an AT&T and Time Warner deal won't result in cost savings. Rich Greenfield and Walter Piecyk, analysts at BTIG, say we are moving away from watching linear television and moving to an on-demand world with no commercials. Plus, Oliver Hart, a professor of economics at Harvard University and this year's Nobel Prize winner in economics, says he would ask about the efficiency gains of AT&T and Time Warner.

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Richard Greenfield, an analyst of media and technology at BTIG, says HBO and Warner Bros. are the crown jewels of Time Warner and expects Viacom and CBS to merge. Brian Wieser, a senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, weighs in on the potential AT&T and Time Warner merger and the evolution of digital media. Nick Heymann, an analyst at William Blair, says project financing will be a big deal for GE. Sara Senatore, a research analyst at Sanford Bernstein, says McDonald's Corp. should be able to grow in this industry, but not very fast.

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Gina Martin Adams, an equity strategist at Wells Fargo says stock valuations for consumer staples are the most dangerous. Carsten Brzeski, the chief economist at ING, says the ECB will extend QE until the end of 2017. Ben Emons, the chief economist at Intellectus Partners, says the European economy is slowly recovering and discusses QE after the ECB rate decision. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says the ECB can continue with its QE program without technical or political constraints.

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Alan Ruskin, co-head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, says the pound could go into free fall. Sebastian Mallaby, senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses his new book on Alan Greenspan and says Greenspan called the Fed a historic disaster. Alan Krueger, professor of economics at Princeton University and an economic adviser to Hillary Clinton, speaks about her economics plans and keeping the election focused on the economy.

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John Strickland, JLS director and analyst, says Ryanair is healthy despite pressure from the pound. Howard Ward, chief investment officer of growth equities at GAMCO Investors, says he would like to see Apple go after Time Warner. Ann Duignan, an analyst at JPMorgan, says Caterpillar has a strong board after the C-suite shakeup.

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Brad Hintz, professor of finance at New York University, said London will remain the financial center post-Brexit. Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Nicolaus, said there is no sense of immediacy to raise rates at this point. Matthew Mish, credit strategist at UBS, said foreign clients are increasingly looking at the U.S. high-grade, longer-duration credit markets.

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Brad Hintz, adjunct professor of finance at New York University, says this was a good summer for fixed income for the banks. Dan Yergin, vice chairman of IHS, says the U.S. needs higher economic growth and more entrepreneurial energy. James Stavridis, dean of The Fletcher School of Tufts University, says he expects positive growth numbers in Greece next year. Erik Oja, banking analyst at CFRA Research, says this quarter's bank earnings are similar to last quarter, with the four major banks all beating on top-line and bottom-line expectations.

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Edmund Phelps, winner of the 2006 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, says innovation is making workers more effective, but what they are producing is less valuable and that's why wages are falling. Alessio de Longis, portfolio manager at OppenheimerFunds, says he expects a modest bounce in emerging market growth. Stan Collender, executive vice president of Qorvis MSLGROUP, says the uncertainty coming out of Washington means there will be more talk of a government shutdown.

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Stephen Stanley, chief economist of Amherst Pierpont Securities, says 2016 inflation is very close to 2 percent. Craig Moffett, partner and senior research analyst at MoffettNathanson, says cable is best positioned for the next generation of wireless. Axel Merk, chief investment officer of Merk Investments, says the Fed wants to be behind the curve.

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Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, says he's not yet confident of a gold rebound. Steve Rattner, chairman of Willet Advisors, says the equity markets are fully valued and that he's reducing exposure to U.S. equities. Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, says rising interest rates will be a tailwind for the equity markets because the Fed is confident about economic stability. Bengt Holmstrom, the 2016 Nobel Prize winner in economics, says narrow financial incentives can be damaging.

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Robert Sinche, global strategist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, says the long-term yield downturn is a global phenomenon. Greg Valliere, chief global strategist at Horizon Investments, says Hillary Clinton's policies aren't pro-growth. James Steel, chief commodities analyst at HSBC Securities, says the biggest driver of gold is Fed policy. Takatoshi Ito, a professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, discusses the BOJ's independence.

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Anat Admati, professor of finance and economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business, says capital levels for European banks are meaningless with accounting tricks.

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Alan Krueger, a professor of economics at Princeton University, says the U.S. economy is seeing encouraging signs of wage growth. Peter Fisher, a senior fellow at Dartmouth's Tuck School of Business, says the Fed has been targeting low-level volatility like it's a third mandate and that's a mistake. Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Capital Management, says he sees a stronger dollar in the longer term.

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John Lipsky, a visiting scholar of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies and a former special adviser to the IMF, says the IMF is less concerned about China in the short term. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser of Allianz, says the market dodged a Lehman moment on Deutsche Bank. London School of Economics professor Nicholas Stern says Brexit is calling U.K. growth prospects into question. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde urges European banks to examine their business models.

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Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, says gold is trading in lock-step against real interest rates. UBS' Geoff Dennis discusses emerging market initiatives that may come out of the IMF meetings this week in Washington, D.C. Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, says global trade remains an overall net plus for markets.

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HSBC's Steven Major says we should expect lower yields to last longer. Eurasia Group's Callum Henderson says the weaker sterling is a positive bias for markets. David Herro, partner and chief investment officer at Harris Associates, says Credit Suisse shares are too cheap and expects a consolidation in banking as a result of regulation. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says the sterling is set to drop substantially.

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Marc Chandler, head of currencies at Brown Brothers Harriman, weighs in on the pound's drop and analyzes the Obama dollar rally. James Stavridis, dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a retired U.S. Navy admiral, discusses the outlook for Germany on Unity Day. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, says there has been a huge wealth boom but the savings rate is unchanged during the past several years.

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Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, says a hard Brexit is the most likely outcome for the U.K. BlackRock's Jeffrey Rosenberg discusses how low bond yields can go. Dr. Allan Meltzer, professor at the Tepper School of Business, says the Fed is financing the government's deficit.

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In a Bloomberg exclusive, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker says the Fed should normalize sooner rather than later. Former IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard says the U.S. central bank may have a communication problem. Oaktree Capital Group's Howard Marks warns that lower institutional returns are a big problem.

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NYU professor of economics Michael Spence says sole reliance on monetary policy won't work. Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Charles Plosser says the Fed faces troubling credibility problems on interest rates. University of Chicago Booth School of Business professor of economics Chad Syverson weighs in on the productivity slowdown in the U.S. Ford Motor CEO Mark Fields says Ford is exploring more mobility services to compete with Uber and Tesla.

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Gluskin Sheff & Associates' David Rosenberg says the U.S. dollar will appreciate over the next several months. University of California Irvine professor of economics Peter Navarro says Trump's economic program is to cut corporate tax rates and create jobs in the supply chain in the Midwest. University of California Berkeley professor of economics Laura Tyson says Clinton was prepared for the debate and was articulate and factual.

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Algebris Investments' Alberto Gallo says Deutsche Bank will take 10 years to fix. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., says he's raised cash holdings to 50 percent, the highest ever. Selzer & Co. President Ann Selzer discusses the latest Bloomberg Politics poll showing Trump and Clinton deadlocked before tonight's debate. John "Jack" Bogle of Bogle Financial Markets and founder of Vanguard Group weighs in on mutual fund costs and calls them outrageous.

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Charles Calomiris, an economics professor at Columbia Business School, says central banks' negative rates policy is idiotic. Edward Conard, author of "The Upside of Inequality: How Good Intentions Undermine the Middle Class," on saving America's Middle Class. Louise Yamada Technical Research's Louise Yamada says the Fed is keeping equities propped up. Brian Kelly, founding CEO of The Points Guy, says the Starwood program won't go away anytime soon.

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Citigroup's William Lee says we have a rudderless, event-driven Fed. Wells Fargo's John Manley says American consumers are starting to feel better. And Morgan Stanley's Hans Redeker says it's time to slowly turn the boat on Yen.

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