The Bulwark

Sam Stein talks with Reuters national security reporter Erin Banco about how the U.S. ended up at war with Iran—and why the official story doesn’t hold up. Intelligence assessments didn’t show an imminent threat, but the administration moved forward anyway after months of pressure, shifting justifications, and a last-minute decision from Trump.

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Tim Miller moderated a conversation with Don Lemon at the 2026 New Orleans Book Festival. They talked about Lemon’s arrest and time in custody and the broader crackdown on Trump critics. They also discussed the war in Iran, and the failures of the mainstream media during Trump's second term.

Sam Stein and Rachel Janfaza take on a striking shift among young voters: support for Israel has collapsed, with just 13% of Gen Z viewing it positively. Drawing on new polling and a focus group of students, they discuss how anti-Israel sentiment is spreading—and how it’s increasingly bleeding into something more troubling on campuses and online.

Tim Miller joins Nicolle Wallace to talk about the escalating Iran war, the sudden resignation of Trump official Joe Kent, and the growing split inside MAGA. As competing narratives collide, the panel looks at what’s actually driving the conflict—and why even Trump’s allies are breaking ranks.

They also discuss Trump’s erratic messaging, rising concerns about leadership, and the economic fallout already starting to hit Americans—from higher gas and food prices to a broader slowdown that could get much worse by the fall.

Watch Deadline: White House with Nicolle Wallace on MS NOW: https://www.ms.now/deadline-white-house

In this Command Post edition of Bulwark Takes, Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.) and Ben Parker break down how Trump’s snub of NATO allies is shaping the Iran conflict, and how even spectacular military success against the Iranian government and military won’t necessarily lead to victory.

Have questions about the Iran war? Send them to commandpost@thebulwark.com and we’ll try to answer them in the next episode!

Read more from Mark's piece here: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/iran-gets-vote-in-this-war-thormuz-trump-hegseth-israel-strategy

Buy Mark's book, "If I Don't Return: A Father's Wartime Journal": https://www.amazon.com/If-Dont-Return-Fathers-Wartime/dp/1966786727

Tim Miller and Sam Stein take on Trump’s latest Oval Office comments on Iran. They discuss the contradictions, the absence of a clear strategy, and what it signals about how this war is being handled. Plus, JD Vance dodges a simple question about whether he actually supports the operation, raising questions about what’s really happening behind the scenes.

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Tim Miller talks with Cato’s David Bier about his viral clash with Senator John Kennedy—and what the exchange reveals about today’s immigration debate. They discuss the data on immigrants and the economy, the gap between rhetoric and actual policy, mass deportation proposals, visa bans affecting families, and how enforcement tactics are impacting both immigrants and U.S. citizens.

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Sam Stein and Will Saletan take on Donald Trump’s claims that Iran has been “decimated” even as his administration asks other countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. They discuss the contradictions in Trump’s messaging and what it reveals about the war. They also react to FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr’s warning to broadcasters over their coverage.

JVL is joined by war reporter Tim Mak to discuss the rapidly escalating conflict with Iran and what it means for the United States, Ukraine, and global stability. They examine why the Iranian regime may be more durable than many assume, the strategic limits of military strikes, and how rising oil prices are shaping political decisions in Washington.

Read more from Tim Mak at The Counteroffensive: https://www.counteroffensive.news/

Sam Stein and Catherine Rampell give their takes on the sudden shift in Republican messaging on gas prices after the war with Iran disrupted global oil markets. For years, Republicans blamed Joe Biden for high prices at the pump. Now, with prices rising again under Donald Trump, some GOP lawmakers are telling Americans they need to “make sacrifices” or even suggesting struggling families just need better financial literacy.

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Tim joined Katy Tur to talk about the backlash from the “podcast right” over a potential Iran conflict. If those newer, anti-war voters peel away—or simply stay home—it could reshape the politics around Trump’s base. They also discussed immigration, where Republicans are starting to get nervous about the real-world impact of mass deportation policies.

Watch Katy Tur Reports on MS NOW: https://www.ms.now/katy-tur-reports

Sam Stein, Will Sommer, and Andrew Egger give their takes on the new right-wing conspiracy that claims John Thune is secretly controlled by Punchbowl News and that’s why he won’t eliminate the filibuster to pass the SAVE Act. The theory comes from a software engineer known online as “Data Republican,” who gained prominence during the DOGE era by posting false claims about uncover government waste. Her latest claim hinges on a series of confusing flowcharts that immediately collapses under even minimal scrutiny, but it’s still gaining traction in conservative circles, including Sen. Mike Lee.

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Sam Stein and Tim Miller give their takes on Joe Rogan’s surprisingly blunt reaction to Donald Trump’s war with Iran. Rogan says many supporters feel “betrayed” after Trump campaigned on ending “stupid wars,” only to launch major strikes that have now killed U.S. troops and raised fears of wider conflict. Sam and Tim dig into Rogan’s political evolution and why this moment is so uncomfortable for the MAGA-friendly podcast world. After years of embracing Trump as the anti-war outsider, figures in the “podcast bro” ecosystem are now confronting the possibility that they misjudged him.

Tim Miller joined Nicolle Wallace to discuss Donald Trump’s latest comments on the Iran war and the chaos surrounding his administration’s messaging. Plus: Lindsey Graham’s reported efforts to push Trump toward escalation and Tucker Carlson’s claim that Trump is being fed fake polling about the war’s popularity.

Watch Deadline: White House on MS NOW: https://www.ms.now/deadline-white-house

Sarah Longwell and Sam Stein give their takes on Donald Trump’s latest press conference on the war in Iran, where Trump seemed to declare victory while also suggesting the conflict is just beginning. Trump claimed the war was essentially “over” after the first two days, even as his own defense secretary says the mission is only getting started. They also break down a tense exchange with a reporter who challenged Trump on his claim that Iran bombed its own elementary school, prompting the president to suddenly say he “doesn’t know enough about it.”

Pre-order Sarah's book, "How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time": https://static.macmillan.com/static/smp/how-to-eat-an-elephant-9781250464170/

Sam Stein and Will Saletan give their takes on why Lindsey Graham is suddenly everywhere celebrating the escalation against Iran and why even some Republicans are alarmed by his rhetoric. As Graham cheers the bombing campaign and openly talks about taking on other regimes around the world, critics including Meghan McCain warn that his messaging is scaring voters and pushing the U.S. toward endless wars. Sam and Will trace Graham’s long obsession with regime change, how he’s learned to appeal to Donald Trump, and why this moment may represent the culmination of a decades-long foreign policy vision.

Listen to Will's 2023 series on Lindsey Graham here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJNKzTkCZE9sb384PfewA7Gur01abBrcS

Tim Miller and Andrew Egger take on Trump’s latest ultimatum to Congress: pass the SAVE Act or he won’t sign any other legislation. They explain what the bill does, why Trump is suddenly pressuring Republicans to blow up the filibuster, and how MAGA activist Scott Pressler ended up shaping the president’s message after a Fox & Friends appearance.

Tim Miller takes on the hypocrisy behind Washington’s deficit panic. After Elon Musk and Trump allies promised massive spending cuts and warned about “debt slavery,” federal spending kept climbing—and now the Iran war is burning through billions per day.

Sarah Longwell joins Bill to talk about her new book—How to Eat an Elephant. 

Preorder Sarah's book now! https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/how-to-eat-an-elephant-sarah-longwell/1149619381?ean=9781250464170

Lauren Egan is joined by Ryan Busse, a Democratic candidate for Congress in Montana’s 1st District, for his take on the stunning shakeup in Montana politics. Within days, Rep. Ryan Zinke announced he won’t seek reelection and Sen. Steve Daines revealed he’s retiring, throwing the state’s political landscape into turmoil. Busse talks about why he believes the race is now wide open and how Democrats can compete in a deeply red state. A former firearms industry executive who later broke with the industry, Busse also explains his unusual political journey and why he thinks economic issues will decide the next election.

Tim Miller takes on Trump’s latest Truth Social rant about Iran—where the president calls Iran the “loser of the Middle East,” talks about the country potentially “collapsing,” and signals the war could escalate even further. He also reacts to Tucker Carlson’s claim that Trump believes the war is polling at 90% support, and what that might mean for where this conflict is headed.

Tim Miller and Will Sommer give their takes on why a stolen truck full of Tucker Carlson’s nicotine pouches has led to an escalating feud with Laura Loomer, another racist group chat scandal that has rocked young Republican and Candace Owens’ increasingly bizarre conspiracy series that now includes a theory involving youth travel basketball.

You MUST read Will's False Flag newsletters: https://www.thebulwark.com/s/false-flag

Tim Miller gives his take on The New York Times reporting that the Trump Justice Department’s failed to build a criminal case over President Biden's use of an “autopen." Biden and his aides are just the latest in a growing list of revenge investigations that have fizzled under Pam Bondi’s DOJ. From Biden to Obama to Mark Kelly and Jim Comey, the indictments never seem to materialize.

Sam Stein, JVL, and Catherine Rampell give their takes on why HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is demanding “safety data” from Dunkin' over its sugar-loaded iced coffees and why that fight could hit differently in Massachusetts. From 115 grams of sugar to 48-ounce coffee buckets, the crew taste-tests a truly unholy Dunkin order and debates whether this is public health policy or just another front for the MAHA movement in the culture wars.

Tim Miller goes back into the lion’s den on Piers Morgan’s panel to debate Trump’s escalating war with Iran. Tim notes something surprising: even some of Trump’s biggest MAGA allies sound conflicted about the war.

Watch Piers Morgan Uncensored: https://www.youtube.com/piersmorganuncensored

Sam Stein talks with Senator Tim Kaine as he forces a Senate vote to block Trump from waging war with Iran without congressional approval. Kaine says lawmakers are ducking their constitutional duty and warns the administration’s rationale echoes the run-up to Iraq. If senators want this war, he argues, they should have the guts to put their names on it.

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Sam Stein, JVL and Andrew Egger give their takes on the chaotic and dramatic Senate Judiciary Committee hearing with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Republican senators sharply questioned Noem over her leadership at DHS, ICE's deadly actions in Minnesota, and her department’s $220 million ad campaign featuring Noem front and center. They also debate a bigger question: Is Noem being set up as the scapegoat? With DHS funding frozen and Republicans under pressure, are some in the GOP trying to sacrifice the secretary to avoid deeper reforms to ICE and immigration enforcement?

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Will Saletan revisits Tulsi Gabbard’s past warnings that Trump “lied” about ending wars—and compares them to her current role defending new bombings in Iran and moves in Venezuela.

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Tim Miller and Sarah Longwell take on the early polling after Trump’s strikes on Iran—and the warning signs for his coalition. Independents are overwhelmingly opposed, soft Trump voters are wavering, and the “America First” brand is colliding with a foreign war. Is this the start of a political fracture inside MAGA?

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