The Compound and Friends

What does it feel like when Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway makes an investment in your company? STORE Capital President and CEO Christoper Volk joins Josh to explain, plus insights on what's happening on Main Street USA with business owners, services business, restaurants and stores.

Plus! New York City may be down, but it's not out! It's never out. Josh's take on the James Altucher post that went viral this week.

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As World War I came to an end, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 raced around the globe, infecting as many as 500 million people and killing an estimated 50 million. Shortly after it ran its course, the United States experienced one of the biggest booms in history, the Roaring 20’s. Could it happen again? Another boom decade fueled by high productivity and an onslaught of technological innovation?

Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President of Yardeni Research, Inc. He’s served as a chief strategist on Wall Street as well as an economist at both the New York Fed and the Treasury. He’s been writing about the parallels and contrasts between the 1920’s and the 2020’s and I’ve asked to come on and talk to us about it.

Plus, Michael Batnick returns to play What Are Your Thoughts - all of the biggest topics of this week in money and investing. Visit thereformedbroker.com for full show notes, links and resources!

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This week Josh talks with Brendan Ahern, Chief Investment Officer of KraneShares, to find out how US investors can get involved with TikTok, the hottest social network on earth. They discuss the opportunity in Chinese internet stocks, the massive size and scale of Ant Financial, which will be coming public soon, and how US investors can stay updated on all of the biggest developments in China. You can subscribe to Brendan's daily morning note at ChinaLastNight.com to get up to speed.

Michael Batnick joins for a new edition of What Are Your Thoughts to tackle the best 90 day period for diversified investors ever, the biggest earnings day of the year, the rally in gold and Bitcoin, when plumbers have stock tips and more!

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On the newest episode of the Compound Show, join Downtown Josh Brown for a discussion about the bubble in belief. The rise of "Special Purpose Acquisition Corp 2.0" involves the backdoor IPOs of DraftKings, Nikola, Utz Potato Chips, the Golden Nugget Online, Virgin Galactic and many other well known companies. Pershing Square's Bill Ackman just launched the largest SPAC ever this week. What does it mean? What does it signify about the current market environment? Plus, a conversation with Larry McDonald (A Colossal Failure of Common Sense) about whether or not the S&P 500 index committee can keep ignoring Tesla, now that it's reported four straight quarters of GAAP profits and its market cap is larger than almost all the other holdings. 

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On this week's episode of The Compound Show, Josh discusses the Covid-19 economy and why Universal Basic Income (UBI) might be the inevitable and necessary solution. Next, Michael Batnick joins Josh for an all new round of What Are Your Thoughts. They discuss gold vs the S&P, Elon Musk vs Warren Buffett, and much more!

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On this episode of The Compound Show, Josh discusses this summer's huge rally in Chinese stocks, and the implications for investors when Europe and Asia seem to have done a better job addressing the pandemic. Vitaliy Katsenelson joins to talk about the problem with paying any price for growth stocks. Noah Kerner, the founder and CEO of Acorns joins Josh for a discussion about how he's taught 7 million people how easy it is to start investing at any age, with any dollar amount.

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On this episode of The Compound Show, Josh talks about the 4.8 million jobs added back in June, the wild dispersion within the Real Estate sector of the stock market, warehouses vs office buildings, and some plans for July 4th weekend. Michael Batnick joins for another round of What Are Your Thoughts to answer the question "Why would anyone invest right now?"

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On the new edition of What Are Your Thoughts with Michael Batnick and Josh Brown: 

- Bubble behavior in a market crisis is nothing new or unusual. 

- Fidelity says 18% of investors sold out of all their stocks during the last few months, and a third of investors over 65 years old! 

- With the Fed buying the investment grade bonds of Apple and Microsoft, do its critics have a point? 

- What did we learn from this crisis? 

- Eating at restaurants again - weird but satisfying. 

- Does Michael watch movies just to torture himself? Plus, why Josh likes westerns. 

- Apple's App Store facilitated over half a trillion dollars in commerce last year! 

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A Degenerate Gambler Walks Into a Stock Exchange... What Are Your Thoughts?

On an all-new What Are Your Thoughts - Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the biggest topics in finance this week, including:

- What should we make of massive one-day rallies in the stock market? 

- What if the stock market is doing a better job of tracking the real economy than we think? 

- Which is more dangerous for a degenerate gambler - legal sports betting or discovering the stock market? 

- How will restaurants and bars conform to the new health challenge and make a comeback? 

- What's one thing you've changed your mind about since the crisis began? 

- How come people seem to begin investing as bulls and then get bearish when they're older? 

Ten Rules for Retirement Investing

Josh here - my colleague Anthony Isola put together this list of ten rules for retirement. Tony spends a lot of his time giving advice to people who aren't typically savvy about investing or finance in general. Many of his clients are teachers but these rules are truly universal.

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Josh Brown and Michael Batnick discuss the recent rash of commentary about the "Death of Value Investing," a discipline that has already died a thousand deaths before and yet is continually resurrected. Michael points out that growth investing is currently on a 30-year win streak versus value investing, while the distance between cheap stocks and expensive stocks has never been more stretched. Josh's take is that the idea of buying an asset for less than it's worth is immortal, but the inputs we base these decisions on might need to change. Perhaps it's not a problem with the concept, but with the measurements. 

You can find more of Michael's thoughts and charts on the topic at his post below: https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/05/12/the-case-against-value-investing/ 

You can find Josh's written rant on value investing here: https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/05/12/value-investing-is-immortal/

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Unlimited Economic Stimulus: What Are Your Thoughts?

Join Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown for another all-new edition of What Are Your Thoughts? as they discuss: 

- US stocks just had their best monthly performance in 30 years 

- what was the catalyst? 

- Has Warren Buffett's magic touch faded away? Why Berkshire's annual shareholder "meeting" was so underwhelming. 

- Josh got the antibody test. Why wouldn't everyone? Maybe because it doesn't mean anything. 

- Is there any limit to how much money the Fed and Treasury can throw at the economy? Do we have any choice? 

- Michael Jordan talked about the downside of fame in this week's 'The Last Dance' - the press tears our idols down on Wall Street too. 

The Yield Curve Indicator is UNDEFEATED

Josh here - Okay, so now we're officially in recession. What happens next? How long will this go on for? 

Last fall we had Professor Campbell Harvey, partner and senior advisor to Research Affiliates, on The Compound to discuss the inverted yield curve, an economic indicator he had discovered in the 1980's. Cam explained that this indicator - when Treasury interest rates on shorter-term bonds rise above those being paid on longer-dated bonds - has been successful at predicting recessions 7 out of 7 times with zero false signals along the way. This recession means it's now 8 for 8! 

Join us for a discussion about the way the signal should be thought about now with the Fed's overnight rate back at zero. We also discuss whether or not the economy is bottoming, what has to happen for the recession to end, and why this environment is like nothing we've ever seen before in history.

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Episode starts with Josh asing his friend Jeff Macke to pop on and tell us about what's happening with America's largest retailers, and how the coronavirus ended up being both a challenge and an opportunity for them. Jeff is an expert in all things big box retailing and ecommerce, He's also hilarious and one of the nicest guys I know. Hope you enjoy and learn some stuff from this!

Later, Michael Batnick talks with Logan Mohtashami, columnist for HousingWire, about where the housing market was prior to COVID-19, how quickly the market reacted, and what it will look like when the economy reopens.

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Why Credit Card Losses Could Explode: What Are Your Thoughts?

On an all new What Are Your Thoughts, Josh Brown and Michael Batnick tackle all the biggest topics of the moment.

In this edition:

* Five US stocks are now bigger than the entire developed world's stock markets combined, how can this be?

* What are the investor takeaways from the massive crash in oil prices?

* Did an oil ETF popular with retail traders contribute to negative oil prices this week?

* Are people more comfortable about ordering in food as a break from cooking at home now?

* How long would you stay in your home, no matter what the government says?

* Watching old NBA games

* Reactions to ESPN's The Last Dance

What Does The Fed Actually Do?

Michael Batnick talks with Cullen Roche about what the federal reserve actually does, what their critics get right, and how their actions today compare with what they did during the Great Financial Crisis.

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On an all new What Are Your Thoughts - Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown discuss:

* Are there any Crisis Stars being created on Wall Street during this bear market?

* Human behavior in a bear market has not changed much

* Why this won't be the next Great Depression

* Michael thinks he's one of those "business call from a Peloton" guys

* Why America needs Major League Baseball to come back

* ETF trading volume is not indicative of the "death of passive"

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Josh here - I asked my colleague Blair duQuesnay about what's happening on our investment committee these days and what the decision making process is like given recent circumstances. We also talk about what it's like to live and work in New Orleans these days, a city that has joined New York on the list of US epicenters for COVID-19 cases. Blair is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) working with clients of the firm and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) who serves with four other members of Ritholtz Wealth on the Investment Committee.

You can check out Blair's blog at https://blairbellecurve.com/ and reach out to her here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/contact/request-more-info/

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On an all new What Are Your Thoughts - Michael Batnick and Josh Brown discuss the biggest topics of the moment. Including:

* Do investors care at all about the details of Congressional stimulus plans?

* Mark Cuban just said what everyone's thinking.

* What do you with a Black Swan fund now that it's already Swanned?

* The biggest single day of retail investor stock selling.

* The fastest 30% bear market in history - just 22 days!

* Will Work From Home become the new normal?

* Did the stock market bottom?

...and much more! Let us know what your thoughts!

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Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown discuss all of the recent market volatility from the COVID-19 situation, including some takes on stock buybacks, what 13Fs might look like, the 10 stocks that have raised their dividends for 50 years straight, the overall damage so far and why we need to be bullish on treatments, and save the enthusiasm for vaccines for a later time.

We love all of our viewers and subscribers and are thinking of you as we have this discussion. Stay strong, we WILL return.

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First up, Michael Sonnenshein, Managing Director of Grayscale Investments, stopped by The Compound to discuss bitcoin with Josh and Michael. Grayscale runs the largest bitcoin fund in the world, with nearly $3 billion in AUM. What does the future of bitcoin look like?

And then on today's episode of What Are Your Thoughts, Michael Batnick and Josh Brown get into all the hottest topics in investing and finance.

• Josh's apology for rooting for corrections
• Has the market bottomed or do we need a retest of the low?
• Would rather know about a market bottom or a market top in advance?
• Josh is reading about viruses and outbreaks around the clock, what's the point?
• Zoom Media became a hot stock because of teleconferencing, and then traders bought the wrong ticker too - on purpose?
• Why do people share their transactions on Venmo?
• Every analyst now gets a base case, bull case and bear case - whatever happened to making a call and standing by it?
• The Fed dropped a surprise interest cut of 50 basis points during our show - Michael and Josh react in real time.

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First up, Dan McMurtrie. He and his partners founded Tyro Partners, a New York City-based hedge fund, at a time when hedge fund closings are much more common than emerging fund launches. Dan lists some of the most important things he's figured out on his journey. He also talks about how one of the most under-appreciated sources of alpha is being nice to people.

Later on we bring in Rich Greenfield, one of the most widely followed and respected analysts in the technology, media and telecom (TMT) space on Wall Street. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown got a chance to talk to him about the launch of Disney+, the rise of over-the-top streaming apps like Netflix, why Roku is such a hot stock and what we can expect for the next generation of video launches. One thing Rich is certain of is that while there may be winners among streaming services, traditional broadcast TV is sure to be the biggest loser.

You can follow Dan's renowned Twitter feed / alter-ego Super Mugatu here:

https://twitter.com/supermugatu

Tyro Partners homepage here:

https://www.tyropartners.com/

You can follow Rich Bernstein's ongoing commentary via his Twitter account:

https://twitter.com/RichLightShed

...and check out his excellent blog here:

https://lightshedtmt.com/

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In this edition of What Are Your Thoughts, Michael Batnick and Josh Brown discuss:

* YouTube revenue growth is on fire, but who gets the money?

* Netflix vs Cable Subs - crossover imminent!

* The short squeeze in Tesla stock is probably the largest in the history of the stock market.

* The stock market is recovering from its worst week in a while

* What should investors make of the Coronavirus that seems to be roiling cross-border trade with China and the rest of the world?

* Amazon earnings

* Michael and Josh on the Super Bowl, did the right team win?

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Michael Batnick sits down with Data Scientist Nick Maggiulli to talk about one of the most commonly asked questions in the world of money, “When is the best time to invest?” The answer will definitely surprise you, check it out.

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Barry and Michael sit down with Ben to discuss financial fraud and his new book "Don't Fall For It: A Short History of Financial Scams."

Pick up a copy of Ben's book:

https://www.amazon.com/Dont-Fall-Short-History-Financial/dp/1119605164

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Josh recently met up with Scott Redler at the New York Stock Exchange to discuss moving averages, and trading vs investing. Scott is the Chief Strategic Officer at T3 Live.

Check out Scott's new book "The Ultimate Guide to Moving Averages:"

https://www.t3live.com/blog/scott-redler-free-ebook/

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In this edition of What Are Your Thoughts, Michael Batnick and Josh Brown discuss:

* Gold vs Bitcoin, let the trolling begin!

* Google joins the Trillion Dollar Club, who's next?

* Can Bill Simmons sell The Ringer podcast network for $200 million?

* Actively managed US stock mutual funds had a great year in 2019, but most still couldn't catch the S&P 500. So what?

* Will direct indexing disrupt the ETF business?

* Warren Buffett's preferred metric to gauge how expensive the stock market is.

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Josh here - Michael Batnick and I discuss the recent milestones for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the incredibly slow grind that's gotten us here. According to the Wall Street Journal "hasn’t moved 1% or more in either direction since mid-October, its sixth-longest streak since the end of 1969 and third-longest since the end of 1995."

We ran the numbers and looked at the absolute change in daily stocks prices. It turns out that on a rolling 30-day basis, stocks have almost never been this calm.

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The recent flare-up in the Middle East has investors asking questions about what might happen to their portfolios if a war breaks out. While every scenario is different and the variables change, there are some important things to understand about how wars have historically affected the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Ben Carlson is the Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. This past week, he took a look at how US stocks have acted during WWI, WWII, the Korean War, Vietnam, the Gulf War, etc. Ben shares his findings in a new article at Fortune Magazine and in this video with Josh Brown.

Read Ben's full article here:

https://fortune.com/2020/01/03/iran-us-conflict-stock-market-oil-prices/

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On a new edition of What Are Your Thoughts, Josh Brown and Michael Batnick discuss the hottest topics in finance and investing: 

* Is there any such thing as the optimal time to rebalance your portfolio? 

* Is Instagram ad targeting weirding you out or doing you a favor?

* Vanguard started the year off slashing commissions on options trades and mutual funds.

* The median IPO has underperformed the stock market by 20 percentage points this decade!

* Josh says 'Uncut Gems' starring Adam Sandler is actually a personal finance movie.

* What was the biggest surprise of 2019? 

* Bill Ackman delivered a 58% comeback performance in 2019, how'd he do it? 

Let us know what your thoughts are on these topics, we love your feedback and comments! Happy New Year! 

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Derek Thompson stops by The Compound to discuss how and why things go viral with Barry and Michael. Derek is a staff writer at The Atlantic and author of “Hit Makers.”

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Barry Ritholtz sits down with author and former WSJ journalist, Jonathan Clements to discuss how money is similar to health, smart ways to spend it, and how our thoughts about money change over the course of a lifetime.

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Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick go head-to-head for a brand new What Are Your Thoughts!

In the final episode of 2019, Josh and Michael cover:

* It was almost impossible to lose money this year

* Does the success of DoubleLine over the last decade prove that building an active management company is still possible?

* The five best performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year were AMD, Lam Research, KLA-Tencor, Chipotle and....Target?

* Why does Michael get bullied online more than Josh?

* 2020 analyst forecasts

* Josh's anti-coffee rant was trash

* Apple is the most emblematic stock of 2019

Let us know your thoughts on these topics! We love to hear from you.

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Nick Maggiulli is the data scientist at Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of the Of Dollars and Data blog. He tells Michael Batnick about a simple trick he uses to avoid feeling guilty while spending money.

Michael talks about how he funds his Liftoff account at the same time as he makes a large purchase. You can have a Liftoff account too, follow the link below - there's no minimum to get started!

http://liftoffinvest.com

Read "How to Spend Money" by Nick here:

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-to-spend-money/

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Nina O'Neal stops by The Compound to discuss the work-life balancing act of a financial advisor. Nina is a Partner and Investment Advisor at Archer Investment Management in Raleigh, NC.

Follow Nina and the Female Advisor Network on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/noneal510

https://twitter.com/female_advisors

Read Nina's blog:

https://www.ninaoneal.com/

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On this edition of What Are Your Thoughts, Michael Batnick and Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management discuss:

-1,000 zombie ETFs have been put of their misery this year

-How many minutes early for a meeting is too early?

-Would you invest directly into a college student's future success?

-Stocks are up over 20% this year, what's the simple reason?

-The 60/40 delivered its best annual performance since 1998

-Private equity firms have three quarters of a trillion in cash to deploy

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The incredibly bright and insightful Morgan Housel of the Collaborative Fund drops by the Compound to discuss some of the biggest mistakes and misconceptions that plague investors year after year - and what can be done about them.

Morgan talks with Michael Batnick and Barry Ritholtz about:

* how there is no such thing as an optimized portfolio

* why recent trends are more instructive about the near term future, but long term trends are the ally of most investors

* the fact that investing is one of the only endeavors in which the application of more effort doesn't equate to better results

* the hindsight bias that all of us fall victim to

* the reality behind some of the most famous investor track records

* the inconsistency you are required to put up with in the pursuit of long term outperformance

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Ted Seides stopped by the Compound to talk with Michael Batnick about the struggles the hedge fund industry has faced over the last decade, and what might happen to stem the tide.

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Charles Schwab is merging with one of its largest competitors, TD Ameritrade in a $26 billion all-stock deal that should close in the second half of 2020. Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management discuss what this will mean for the thousands of financial advisors who use one or both of these custodian brokers for their clients' assets. 

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John Roque joins Barry Ritholtz at The Compound to explain why technical trading signals stopped working and how he has adapted his trading style to the new landscape.

Follow John Roque on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/WolfeDailyHowl

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Ben Hunt joins Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown at The Compound to explain what he's so angry about - he sees wealth inequality as being driven by hijacked narratives about capitalism, stock buybacks, central banks and the managerial overclass orchestrating it all.

Follow Ben on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory

Stay up to date on Ben's thoughts:

https://www.epsilontheory.com

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Ed Yardeni, of Yardeni Research, joins Michael Batnick and Barry Ritholtz at The Compound to explain why we're looking at the wrong data all wrong, what the real data is, and what it means for the current narrative surrounding share buybacks.

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Welcome to the latest edition of What Are Your Thoughts - Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown break down the biggest topics of the moment. On this episode: 

* JP Morgan calls out permabears.

* Should investors be concerned about the national debt?

* Does Google want to be a bank?

* Selling performance vs selling opinions.

* Stock-based compensation.

* Opinion vs price.

* Disney +, first impressions.

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Josh here - I really enjoyed talking with former JPMorgan strategist and the founder of Fundstrat Research about how he uses the evidence to understand what's happening in the markets. 

Tom cites four indicators he uses to explain current trends and think about where markets and the economy might be headed. Among them, credit spreads, demographics and volatility. 

Tom also talks about his bullish stance and why he isn't terribly worried about the yield curve inversion we saw this summer. 

You can learn more about Tom's work at the site: 

https://fsinsight.com/

Follow Tom Lee on Twitter here:

https://twitter.com/fundstrat

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Josh here - we had Greg Zuckerman of the Wall Street Journal up at the Compound to talk about his new book, The Man Who Solved the Market - the first ever deep dive into Jim Simons and his legendary firm Renaissance Technology. Renaissance has pulled over $100 billion in trading profits out of the markets since its founding decades ago, in a highly secretive approach that combines mathematical equations with cutting edge technology. 

Zuckerman conducted over 400 interviews with current and former employees of the firm and even spent a few days with Simons himself - despite the fact that he didn't want this story told or the book written. 

You can get The Man Who Solved the Market here: 

https://amzn.to/2WM6BAY

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The S&P 500 came into October this year up double digits. It has done so on 42 occasions since 1926. That’s almost 50% of the time. 

Of those 42 times, in 35 cases the market went up through the end of the year. That’s an 85% success rate, about as one-sided as market statistics can get. 

On only 7 occasions did it fall in the fourth quarter. 

BUT....

The 3 worst Q4 losses ever all occurred with the market up double digits - these worst Q4 drops ever were 1929, 1987 and last year

-28%, -23% and -14%

So most of the time when stocks are already up they continue to go up. but sometimes they also get crushed.

The average gain is 4.5% (even including the losses). this is also the 24th time the S&P has been up 20% or more through 3 quarters of the year.

We talked with famed Wall Street strategist Tony Dwyer about the tendency for markets that have a good three quarters to finish strong, and why this year looks like it should fall in line with the historical data. 

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Welcome to the latest edition of What Are Your Thoughts - Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown break down the biggest topics of the moment. On this episode: 

* Private markets used to be thought of as "the smart money" while public markets were for retail shleps - but this time around, it's the public investors who are calling bullsh*t on the VCs, private equity firms and insiders. 

* It's not just value investing that's out of favor - value commentary from the likes of Howard Marks seems to be on the wane as well. 

* Is the breakout for international stocks finally going to happen? 

* The big brokers' announcements about commission-free trading seems to left out the mutual fund wrapper in the cold. Is this just another nail in the coffin? 

* Has inflation finally bottomed? A big anecdotal sign has come our way...

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Dave Nadig, managing director of ETF.com, stops by The Compound to discuss how fee-free trading is changing the investment landscape with Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman and CIO, Barry Ritholtz.

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