Thoughts on the Market

The proposed €750 billion European Recovery Fund could represent more than just a recovery from COVID-19. It may also signal a new era of political and economic unity.

Policymakers and voters may care about deficits, but reducing current spending may not be a priority over other issues—and right now that may be a plus for the economy.

Over the last decade, global investors have been lukewarm toward European assets, but three encouraging developments may be set to change that investing narrative.

Depressed 10-year Treasury yields and a strong dollar have tempered the bullish outlook for U.S. equities. But a shift in both suggests a V-shape recovery could be more likely.

Why are markets climbing despite a pandemic and this week’s demonstrations across the U.S.? The answer may lie with how markets view progress.

Large cap biotech analyst Matthew Harrison talks with Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets to discuss the latest timeline for a coronavirus vaccine, hurdles to success and possible market reactions.  

Although market volatility continues to decrease, the volatility of popular momentum strategies is increasing—which suggests a coming rotation to early cycle stocks.

Although the impact of the coronavirus on markets, economies and jobs is truly unprecedented, it doesn’t mean investing precedents don’t still apply.

As U.S. states cope with challenged finances due to the coronavirus, could some look to online gaming to fill budget gaps?

Although the coronavirus recession shares traits with the 2008 financial crisis and other recessions, the rate and sustainability of a recovery could be quite different this cycle.

Will pent-up demand from U.S. consumers help drive a recovery from the coronavirus recession? A special conversation with our Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Economist.

Why would inflation rise since the current recession means an acute shortage of demand for goods and services? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

Congress is weighing another round of fiscal stimulus, possibly by July. But the dynamics of passage in an election year could mean a narrow window to take action.

Current stock market price patterns look surprisingly similar to 2009 and the global financial crisis. The big difference for investors may be the knock-on effect of low interest rates.

As markets have begun to price expectations for negative rates in Britain and the U.S., Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets breaks down the potential impact on consumers, savers and economic growth.

What China’s rebound from COVID-19 can—and can’t—tell us about the path, speed and pitfalls of economic reopening for other countries. Chief China Economist Robin Xing and Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets look at the data, lessons so far, and how the country has had to modify its crisis playbook.

Can the Phase One trade deal détente stand, or will the U.S. and China return to a cycle of escalating tariffs that may impact prospects of a rebound in economic growth? Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy, takes a closer look.

Amid investor speculation about the shape of a recovery, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson urges a standard recession playbook.

How should an investor evaluate the issue of high levels of government debt as nations battle the impact of the coronavirus? A deep dive into the debate.

How can we best coordinate policy to support a timely recovery and what lessons can we learn from the past? Chief Global Economist Chetan Ahya and Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets discuss the policy path back from the global economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.

The hole in U.S. state budgets caused by coronavirus-driven revenue shortfalls will likely affect more than just muni bond investors. Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas explains.

As the rally in U.S. equities takes a break, investors may want to position for "early cycle." And that means re-thinking portfolios just as downbeat economic and earnings data arrives.

Why did April’s stock market gains seem oddly disconnected from recent poor economic data? Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets has the answer.

Consensus on the dollar has been bearish for years, only to be proven wrong time after time. But Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach says the mechanics of supply and demand could change that outcome.

As Congress debates aid for state governments, for investors, the principal concern is that a lack of additional federal aid might further depress state spending and drag on economic growth.

As some states begin to loosen quarantine restrictions, "stay at home stocks" may no longer be the place to be. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains.

Investment strategies tied to the business cycle are still relevant, especially as our key internal indicator shows the cycle has moved into a new phase. Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, makes the case.

Congress has readied more funds to support U.S. businesses and households in order to shorten the pandemic-induced downturn. How far will they go? Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner and Head of Public Policy Research Michael Zezas discuss the scale of the stimulus and its limits.

Congress has readied more funds to support U.S. businesses and households in order to shorten the pandemic-induced downturn. How far will they go? Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner and Head of Public Policy Research Michael Zezas discuss the scale of the stimulus and its limits.

Although it remains to be seen how fast the U.S. can “re-open,” in the near term, markets may be betting on an economy that will normalize faster than feared.

The steep decline in oil prices is a fascinating story of demand, supply and even game theory. But Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says that story could reverse next year.

Emerging markets recovered quickly from the 2008 financial crisis, but could a more challenging backdrop in 2020 mean a different outcome this time? Insights from Chief Economic Adviser Reza Moghadam.

For investors in municipal bonds, the Fed’s recent creation of the Municipal Liquidity Facility and Mainstreet Lending Facility are a key positive. Head of Municipal Strategy Michael Zezas explains why.

When do we return to work? The market reaction? The drug pipeline? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Head Biotech Equity Analyst Matthew Harrison continue their discussion on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

If there is one lesson to be learned from the financial repression era it's that when risk premium appears, investors may want to make moves before it evaporates.

How do you track a virus, a global economy and a road to recovery? On this special episode, an engaging conversation with our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist and Head Biotech Equity Analyst.

The U.S. Congress has been debating ways to flatten another worrying curve: the sliding economic growth curve. What form could additional fiscal stimulus take?

Asset prices often reflect the obvious before it becomes obvious. So the question for investors now is, "What is the market thinking about that's not obvious?"

Even as economic and public health data get worse, recent changes in three key factors make global credit markets an attractive option. Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, Andrew Sheets, explains.

The $2 trillion CARES Act includes a variety of provisions that will help preserve the financial health of state and local governments, hospitals and airports. Here’s what’s inside.

Although economic and earnings data could be gloomy over the next month, have equity markets already discounted the bad news? Detailed analysis from Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson.

Governments and central banks face two issues: A flight to liquidity and a global economy that showed signs of fatigue even before the pandemic. For investors seeking opportunities, it’s an important distinction.

As a record 3.28 million workers file for unemployment, our Chief U.S. Economist and Chief U.S. Public Policy researcher weigh potential effects from the fiscal package now before Congress.

Congressional leaders have reached a deal on a $2 trillion stimulus bill to deal with fallout from the coronavirus crisis. Will it work? Two criteria to watch for.

Mike Wilson looks beyond the coronavirus outbreak at the two key conditions which have made the markets vulnerable to a recession.

On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says that the 4%+ swings in equities markets have made investors skeptical about jumping back in. More U.S. testing could help.

Although the sell-off may not be over and the global economy has tough days ahead, a growing number of factors suggest that risk/reward in markets may be getting better.

As central banks and governments weigh a litany of stimulus efforts, what could the journey to economic recovery look like? Our Chief U.S. Economist and Head of U.S. Public Policy Research sum up the debates.

When markets get volatile, strange things start to happen in markets you might not expect. That's both a sign of stress, and in some cases, a sign of opportunity.

Just three months ago, market expectations were likely overoptimistic. That's how tops are made. Today, they are maybe too pessimistic… and that's how bottoms are made.