Odd Lots

What changed between 2019 and 2025? Why are interest rates so much higher? Why does it seem virtually unfathomable that the Fed will return to ZIRP anytime soon? Why do investors expect this rate cut cycle to be so shallow? The answer, theoretically, is that the neutral rate of interest has gone up. But what is the neutral rate of interest, and why has it moved? On this episode, we speak with Jamie Rush of Bloomberg Economics and Tom Orlik, the Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They, along with Bloomberg's Stephanie Flanders, are the editors of a new book titled The Price of Money: A Guide to the Past, Present, and Future of the Natural Rate of Interest, in which they attempt to directly identify what the neutral rate of interest actually is. We discuss the big changes over the last several years, including deglobalization, demographics, and datacenters, that are pushing this number higher.

Listen to our sister show Trumponomics: Trump Isn’t the Only Reason the Price of Money Is Rising
Read more:
Trump’s Contradiction: Demanding Steep Rate Cuts for a ‘Booming’ Economy
Fed Set to Drive Global Rate Cuts as Europe Shifts to Pause

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Money has been flowing into the AI space, with billions pouring into GPU clusters, data centers, gas turbines, and the infrastructure needed to train and deploy bigger and bigger models. So what comes next? On this episode, we speak with James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research. We talk to him about his latest field trip to one of OpenAI's new massive Stargate data centers in Abilene, Texas. We also discuss the increasingly complicated financing arrangements that are funding some of these mega projects and the energy needed to power them. Finally, we ask the question which everyone seems to be asking right now: is AI in a bubble?

Read more:
OpenAI Valuation Reaches $500 Billion, Topping Musk’s SpaceX
FOMO Builds as Alibaba Extends $250 Billion AI-Fueled Comeback

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We're used to talking about the Federal Reserve changing "benchmark interest rates." But the mechanics of how the central bank actually tightens or loosens policy are a lot more nuanced. For years now, the Fed's been doing this through the federal funds market — where US banks lend and borrow their excess reserves. But that could be changing. Last week, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that the fed funds target is outdated, and the central bank should be looking at alternatives. So what would those alternatives actually look like, and why do the intricacies of these short-term funding markets actually matter? We speak with Joe Abate, head of macrostrategy, at SMBC Nikko about this and the broader liquidity picture.

Read More: Logan Ushers in New Era of Debate on Fed’s Key Policy Tool 

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CME Group is one of the oldest exchanges around, tracing it's history all the way back to the late 1800s, when it specialized in agricultural commodities. It's best known for things like futures and interest rate swaps that tend to be favored by professional traders. But as retail trading becomes big business, the CME is expanding its footprint in the space, including a recently-announced partnership with sports-betting platform FanDuel. So how does a marketplace that built its reputation on professional hedging and risk management now try to capture the attention of everyday investors? In this episode we speak with Terry Duffy, CME Group chairman and CEO, about the exchange’s push into retail, new competition in the Treasury futures space, and much more.

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For over 20 years, people have been talking about prediction markets or event markets are the next big thing. But mostly, with some niche exceptions, they haven't taken off, in part due to regulatory constraints. But now they seem to be booming, and the regulatory environment has gotten much more friendly. On this live episode recorded in Chicago, we speak with Tarek Mansour, the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, one of the prediction market platforms that's booming. One reason it's doing so well is because it's gone big into sports, which of course gets into its own regulatory thicket. In this conversation, we talk about the future of these markets, the prospect for markets other than sports and presidential elections, and Kalshi's overall plan to let its users to eventually trade everything.

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Don Wilson has built a career diving into some of trading’s thorniest problems, including figuring out ways to trade new and niche markets. Now, the founder and CEO of DRW has his sights set on the GPUs powering AI, which he thinks could end up being a bigger market than crude oil. In this episode, which was recorded live onstage at our show in Chicago, we talk about how such a market would work, including ways to ‘standardize’ the vast array of different types of semiconductors, and how this could change the capital stack of the industry. We also talk the evolution of trading over Don’s storied career and why he thinks most assets (and maybe even all of them) will be tokenized within the next five years.

Read more:
ASM International Cuts Outlook After Chip Demand Disappoints
Taiwan Pauses South African Chip Export Curbs After Two Days

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Kindbody, one of the largest fertility companies in the US, sought to disrupt egg freezing and IVF by combining spa vibes with Silicon Valley efficiency. The startup raised millions, opened dozens of clinics, and became a billion-dollar unicorn. But its ambition came with consequences. In IVF Disrupted: The Kindbody Story, reporter Jackie Davalos takes listeners beyond Kindbody’s millennial-friendly waiting rooms and into the clinics themselves, showing the sometimes-heartbreaking consequences of bringing the “move fast and break things” mentality to the business of creating life.

Visit Bloomberg.com/ivfdistrupted to learn more.

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We know that the top-tier AI labs are spending unbelievable amounts of money on talent. But what are these researchers actually working on? And how do we know that they're making progress? And furthermore, how can we even measure that progress? On this episode, we speak with Jack Morris, an AI researcher and Ph.D. candidate at Cornell University, who is also a part-time researcher at Meta. We talk about what he does, and why breakthroughs seem to be lumpy and unpredictable. We also talk about the battle between open- and closed-source approaches, US vs. Chinese labs, and how an individual talent thinks about where they want to spend their time, balancing the desire for research and prestige with a big fat paycheck.

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There are two huge winning trades that people are looking at day after day. Gold keeps going up and US tech stocks keep going up. But what is driving this intense flow? How long can these consensus trades last? On this episode, we speak with Ozan Tarman, the Vice Chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank. As part of his role at the bank, Ozan talks non-stop with hedge funders, sovereign wealth fund managers, and, of course, the analysts at his own bank. This means he has an excellent perspective on why these trades are so popular now. He explains why there is a decline in confidence about the US sovereign (hence the rise in gold) around the world, but also an incredible fixation on the success of the big US tech companies (hence their constant bid). We also talk about other popular consensus trades, from steepeners to Chinese equities to Liz Truss moments all around the world.c

Read more:
China Courts Foreign Gold Reserves to Boost Global Clout
Nvidia’s OpenAI Deal Fuels ‘Circular’ Financing Concerns

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In recent years, retail trading of stocks has absolutely exploded. This is happening despite the fact that investors are subject to a constant stream of propaganda that individuals can't beat the market, and that the proper way to invest is through low-cost index funds that you don't pay regular attention to. More than anyone else, one man has been banging the drum (literally) for years that individuals can beat the market and are smart enough to select individual securities. That, of course, is Jim Cramer, the host of the popular TV show Mad Money on CNBC. He is also the author of the new book, How to Make Money in Any Market. We discuss his philosophy of investing, his career, his time as a young college-age radical, the time he lead a wildcat strike and got fired, his thoughts on memestock mania, and much more.

Read more:
US Stocks Advance to Records to Close Out Risk-On FOMC Week
Intel Soars After Nvidia Makes $5 Billion Investment

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When President Trump announced the tariffs on Liberation Day, it seemed to truly mark the end of the old world trading system. But of course it had been dying for a long time. The first Trump administration erected aggressive trading barriers against China. Then Biden expanded them further. And there were signs of its demise even under Obama. So what was the global trading system? What will come after it? What are the benefits and costs to changes? On this episode, we speak with Michael Froman, the President of the Council on Foreign Relations, and the former Trade Representative during Obama's second term. We discuss how the system began to collapse, and what he sees as the emergence of a new "polyamorous" global trading system, where friends and allies and partners move in a more liquid manner between different poles and blocs.

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There is a widespread view that China is a superpower of rising status, and that a new global order is emerging with the country as an important pole in it. You see this with the growing BRICS organization. You also see this with the leaders who went to Beijing recently for the country's military parade. And of course, this comes at a time when the US is erecting trade barriers with everyone, including many of our closest friends and allies. So how does China see its role in this world? Will it play a role that's similar to what the US has played? Will it look very different? Does China want to reinvigorate legacy multi-lateral organizations like the UN? On this episode, we speak with Henry Huiyao Wang, the Founder and President of the Center for China and Globalization. Having been founded in 2008, the CCG is now China's largest independent think tank, with offices in multiple cities. We discuss China's perspective on the US, its potential role in establishing a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, its perspective on Israel and Gaza, and the type of role it could play in a new form of globalization.

Read more:
China’s Defense Minister Warns on Taiwan, Condemns ‘Bullying’
Why Is China Stockpiling So Much Oil?

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If you look at prospectuses and earnings documents for almost any company, you're going to see a Delaware address. For more than a century, the state has been the place to go to if you're setting up a business. And in fact, Delaware has catered to these corporate clients, setting up an efficient chancery court to settle corporate disputes and producing a huge backlog of case law to act as reliable and efficient precedent. But suddenly, some companies are choosing to leave the state. Most prominent among them is Elon Musk's Tesla, which opted to re-incorporate in Texas after a Delaware judge invalidated his $56 billion pay package. States like Nevada and Texas are now also actively courting companies by enticing them with management-friendly laws. In this episode, we speak with Ann Lipton, University of Colorado law professor and Lawrence W. Demuth Chair, to find out what's at stake in the fight for incorporations and if there's a risk for a race to the bottom in terms of shareholder accountability.

Read more:
Why Tesla’s Chinese Rival BYD Faces a Raft of Troubles
US Panel Probes Huawei Affiliate’s Presence on Nvidia Campus

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Almost everything we buy nowadays has been in a box at some point. Goods are shipped in boxes. Products ordered online arrive at our doorstep in boxes. Boxes are so ubiquitous that some strategists use them as an unconventional macroeconomic indicator to gauge retail spending. Now, shipments of boxes are falling dramatically. At the same time, prices for boxes have actually been going up. So, what's going on? And what does it suggest about the health of the US consumer and the broader economy? In this episode, we speak with Ryan Fox, containers and packaging analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. We talk about the box industry overall, how companies choose their packaging, and what makes the perfect box.

Read more:
Lula, Xi Decry Tariffs and Urge BRICS Unity Amid Trump Threats
What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy

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Everyone wants to buy the hedge that will save their portfolio in a time of collapse. But this is easier said than done. You need to understand the specific risks facing your portfolio. You also need to get the disaster state right. Plus, insurance of any sort is costly. This means tail risk hedging is far from a trivial exercise. On this episode, we talk to someone who's been working on the problem for a long time. Vineer Bhansali is the CIO and founder of LongTail Alpha, which works to develop hedging implementations to prevent against left tail outcomes. Bhansali, who started off as an academic physicist before going to Wall Street, talks to us about options theory, the role of quantitative techniques, the time he won big in Liar's Poker, and why he perceives the loss of Fed independence as the biggest risk right now.

Read more:
Wall Street Rallies as Fed Gets All-Clear to Cut: Markets Wrap
Gold Surpasses Inflation-Adjusted Record High Set in 1980

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In this live episode, recorded at the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, California, we speak with Rob Kaplan, the former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and the current vice chairman of Goldman Sachs. We discuss his views on the rate path, and why he does not see the Fed cutting by 50 bps at the next meeting. We also discuss the general macroeconomic environment, the US vs. China AI race, and why he sees globalization on the march — except it's happening without the US.

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The recent parade in Beijing once again raised questions about the relative strengths of the US and Chinese militaries. Meanwhile, because of recent global conflicts (including the clash between Indian and Pakistan earlier this year), we've gotten fresh data on how certain hardware actually holds up on the battlefield or in the skies. Separately, China is known to be working on a new 6th generation fighter for which some video has been shown. So who is ahead in terms of both cutting edge technology and also defense production at scale? And what does it even mean to have air superiority -- or even air "supremacy" when we're talking about modern warfare? On this episode, we speak with Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center about the state of the two air forces.

More: Here’s the Military Hardware China Showed Off at Xi’s Parade

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One day it's so over. The next day we're so back. This is what it feels like gauging the AI boom right now. Everyone's looking for signs of some kind of slowdown and that investments aren't going pan out, but mostly, the dollar signs just keep piling up. And the AI winners like Nvidia, OpenAI, and Anthropic just keep seeing their market valuations rise. In the meantime, other AI players are seeing weird outcomes. Some promising startups aren't being sold, but rather their top talent is walking out the door, leaving other workers potentially in the lurch, while creating risk for venture capital bagholders. On this episode we speak with Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner at the firm Lux Capital, which invests in a range of startups, many of which are in the AI space. He talks about the challenge of aligning incentives, what's overrated, what's underrated, why he thinks Nvidia may have run its course, and the threats to Silicon Valley's "social contract.”

Odd Lots is coming to Chicago! Tickets on sale now.

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For this week’s episode of Bloomberg’s Everybody’s Business, Joe Wiesenthal joins Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith to fact check President Trump’s recent claim that the “stock market needs the tariffs, they want the tariffs." Is it actually possible to tell how markets feel about tariffs? Do the markets even know themselves? The trio dives deep.

Also on this episode, journalist and cultural commentator Sam Sanders of the Sam Sanders Show unpacks the lessons Hollywood is learning from its latest unexpected success: Netflix's mega-viral KPop Demon Hunters. And, finally, Stacey explain why—love them or hate them—tariffs are making your pumpkin spice latte (not to mention any pumpkin spice cat litter you happen to buy this fall) more expensive.

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We've been in a strange labor market for a while now. The unemployment rate is still nice and low at 4.2%. But the pace of job creation has been slowing markedly. And furthermore, not only has the pace of job creation been slowing, it seems almost every monthly Non-Farm Payrolls number ends up getting revised lower. Of course, this comes at a time of some big transitions in the workforce — whether we're talking immigration changes, aging demographics, or AI. As such, just understanding the monthly data has never been more difficult. And because it's so difficult, it's also challenging to get a read-through from data to policy. On this episode we speak with Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX research and North America strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. In addition to talking about the state of the labor market, we also discuss the goings-on in bond markets, and why the stress is particularly acute in Europe.

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Buy Now Pay Later is everywhere nowadays. Companies like Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna have brought installment payments into everyday life, while big banks and tech firms also now racing into the space. With the market growing so rapidly, there are obvious concerns over whether BNPL is adding a new layer of 'hidden leverage' to the economy, giving online shoppers an alternative to more traditional financing like credit cards and bank loans. Data about BNPL usage is notoriously limited, and BNPL firms have so far resisted sharing information. In this episode, we speak with Julie Margetta Morgan, formerly at the CFPB and now president of The Century Foundation, about what's driving the BNPL market, how BNPL companies make money, and the macroeconomic impacts of the BNPL boom.

Read more:
Klarna, Backers Seek $1.27 Billion in IPO After Tariff Pause
Dollar Tree Boosts Outlook as Consumers Keep Hunting for Deals

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In the past couple of years, the world has fully awoken to the incredible economic and technological growth exhibited by China. But what lessons are there for America? Are there even lessons for America? Dan Wang, research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover History Lab, has probably been one of the foremost commentators and observers on China's rise, having taken seriously their efforts to push the technological frontiers for years now. Now, he's out with a new book BREAKNECK: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. On this episode, we talk about what he's seen in the country, whether China is legitimately on the road to socialism, and how perceptions of the country have changed since he started doing his research.

Read more:
Samsung, SK Hynix Lose US Waivers on Chip Gear for China Plants
China Warns Against Excess Competition in Booming AI Race

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Gamblers on prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi are already trying to cash in on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s engagement — betting on everything from their wedding timeline to her next single.
On today’s Big Take podcast, host Sarah Holder sits down with Bloomberg personal finance reporter Francesca Maglione and wealth reporter Annie Massa to dig into what a high-profile engagement can teach us about the rapidly growing predictions industry, the challenges with regulating it and who’s investing in its future.

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The post-Covid inflation will prove to be a treasure trove for academic economists, as they study what drives inflation, and the power that central banks have to contain it once it gets going. At this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, UC Berkeley professor Emi Nakamura presented a new paper — co-authored with her Berkeley colleagues Jón Steinsson and Venance Riblier — titled Beyond the Taylor Rule. The paper sought to look at the wide range of choices that global central banks made in dealing with inflation to see what if anything could be learned about the Taylor Rule, a load-bearing idea in modern economics that describes what optimal monetary policy looks like when successfully balancing the Federal Reserve's objectives. Their paper discovers that in any bout of inflation, a central bank that has a greater history of fighting inflation also has the ability to deviate further from strict Taylor Rule guidelines, without achieving worse inflation outcomes. In an interview recorded in Jackson Hole, we speak with Professor Nakamura about her work and its implications for central bankers going forward.

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These days, everyone is talking about high interest rates across the rich, developed world, while warning of eventual fiscal disaster. But we may have gotten an early glimpse of this anxiety in October 2022, when then-UK Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled her mini-budget that spooked the gilt market. Well today, rates at the long end of the British yield curve are even higher. So what's going on? Why all this angst now about UK fiscal sustainability and the economy itself? In this episode, we speak with Liz Truss about what she learned during her brief time as the PM. She talks about the political reality of fiscal consolidation, and how difficult it is on both the tax and spending side. And we also discuss what her economic vision was really all about, had she not been forced from the position so quickly. In addition, we talk about the general state of politics, the media, and free speech in the UK.

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Criticism and threats to Federal Reserve independence have been building for some time in this administration. But it was taken to a new height on August 25, when Trump posted that he intended to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a Biden appointee. According to our guest, Columbia Law Professor Lev Menand, this is a big deal that has created an immediate crisis. The Trump administration's argument is that it's firing Lisa Cook "for cause" due to allegations (and these are just allegations at this point) that she committed mortgage fraud. As Lev argues, these allegations alone can't justify the removal of someone in this position. We talk through the legal implications, the immediate path ahead, and what may ultimately be Trump's real aim when it comes to pressuring the Fed.

Read more:
Trump Moves to Fire Fed’s Cook, Setting Up Historic Fight

Powell Opens Door to Interest Rate Cut, Citing Labor Markets

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The annual Jackson Hole symposium is, formally speaking, an academic conference. Economists and central bankers gather to discuss the most important, cutting edge ideas in monetary policy. But there was certainly a different feel this year because of the relentless attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell coming from President Trump. The whole premise of central bank independence is becoming a live question again. And without central bank independence, almost all of the more academic discussions feel like a waste of time. That makes for a surreal environment. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Adam Posen, a former member of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, who now serves as President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He's the author of a recent Foreign Affairs article titled, "The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World." We talk about the shifting tectonic plates occurring domestically and internationally, what he sees as the folly of Trump's approach to trade and international relations, and how that intersects with the discourse among Central Bankers.

Read more:
What’s at Stake in the Fight Over Fed Independence
Former ECB Chief Says ‘Illusion’ of EU as a Global Power Dashed

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According to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin, much of the time central banking is straightforward. Sometimes it's clear that rate cuts are needed. Sometimes it's clear that rate hikes are needed. Other times everything is going great, and central bankers don't have much to worry about. Right now though, things are not straightforward. There are signs of labor market softening. But also there are reasons to be concerned that inflation pressure is building yet again. In times like this, the playbook is less obvious. On this episode, recorded at the Jackson Hole Economic 
Symposium, Barkin walks us through how he's thinking about the economy right now.

More: Fed’s Jackson Hole Points to a Hard Road Ahead for Powell

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Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is still more concerned about the inflation side of the Fed's mandate than he is about the employment side. This is noteworthy because in general markets are expecting rate cuts to come soon, and also Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in Jackson Hole, put more weight on risks to the labor market. In this episode recorded at the conference, Goolsbee explains why he has some concerns about whether the inflation embers have been fully stamped out (he's particularly concerned by what he's seeing in the services realm), and why he has relatively more confidence that the labor market is in good shape.

Read more:
Powell Opens Door to Interest Rate Cut, Citing Labor Markets
Wall Street Got the Rally Signals From Powell It Was Hoping For

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We're still at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where we just heard Fed Chair Jerome Powell's big speech. The speech -- which opened the door to a September rate cut -- proved to be a dovish surprise to the market and stocks are now soaring because of it. But why did Powell decide to focus on what he sees as "downside" risks to the labor market as opposed to "upside" risks to inflation? On this episode, we speak to Bloomberg TV's Michael McKee, who's been to dozens of Jackson Hole meetings since the late 1990s. We talk with him about the speech, how Jackson Hole has changed over time, and who's in the running to replace Powell next year.

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It's Jackson Hole time again, when the most prominent minds in monetary policy meet in an idyllic Wyoming setting for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual symposium on monetary policy. For markets, the main event tends to be the speech from the Fed Chairman. But beyond that, there's always a theme that central bankers and academics are tasked to discuss. So to raise the curtain for this year's event, we spoke with none other than Jeffrey Schmid, the president and CEO of the Kansas City Fed. We talked about the official theme of this year's conference, the growing political pressure on the Fed itself, and how he thinks about monetary policy at a time when markets are at record highs, the unemployment rate is low, and inflation continues to come in above target.

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You always hear about startup exits. Big acquisitions. Big IPOs. But of course this isn’t the fate for most new ventures. Many of them die outright, without any kind of “exit” at all for shareholders. So how do you wind down a company, and sell off the scraps? How do you actually pull the plug? David Johnson of Resolution Financial Advisors specializes in exactly that. Because the formal bankruptcy process is very expensive, many companies look for some way to salvage value by doing an asset fire sale. David tells us how the process works, and also goes through a bunch of fun examples of odd transactions, such as the time he had to find a buyer for some actual human skulls that were in the office of a dying startup.

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President Trump and others have talked about the idea of the US having a Sovereign Wealth Fund, a la the UAE or Singapore. It feels like a longshot, but as it turns out, there are actually several Sovereign Wealth Funds in the United States, one of which is the Alaska Permanent Fund. The fund was established in the 1970s to manage the state’s booming oil fortune, and ensure that the boom benefitted the residents of the state for years into the future. Today the fund manages over $80 billion, contributing a substantial portion each year to Alaska’s state budget, including an annual check paid directly to almost all residents of the state. On this episode, we speak with the fund’s CEO Deven Mitchell and CIO Marcus Frampton about how the fund operates, its relationship with the government of Alaska, and how it’s investing its money in order to fulfill its purpose long into the future. We also discuss what lessons from the APF could apply to any similar project done at a national level.

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(Corrects Alaska Permanent Fund as the only Sovereign Wealth Fund in the US in headline and description)

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You can kind of understand why it's so hard to build housing in New York City. There isn't much available land. It's already pretty built up. And then, add in the fact that so many people want to live in New York, and you can understand why it's so expensive. But what's the deal with Alaska? There seems to be plenty of land. And population has actually been in a a general state of decline. And yet, housing remains strained, with many of the same affordability problems seen elsewhere in the country. So what are the specific challenging dynamics to be overcome? On this episode, we speak with Jimmy Ord, Daniel Delfino, and Stacy Barnes of the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation to understand the challenges they face, and the work they do to ease the strain. We get into both the specific logistical, political, and financial tools available to reduce pressure.

Read more:
NYC Approves Midtown Rezoning to Allow 9,500 New Housing Units More Estate Agents Are Reporting Falling House Prices, RICS Says

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Right now, you could make a good argument that inflation is still too hot, and that with the stock market booming, and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, that it's crazy to think about cutting rates. You could also argue that much of the economy is stalling, that the pace of job growth has slowed dramatically, and that with housing in the tank, we need lower rates. Then on top of this situation, layer in the fact that we have this weird bifurcated economy, with the AI sector growing like gangbusters. And then add onto that the attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve coming from the Trump administration. And furthermore, trade policy is still a moving target. To make sense of this complicated time — and to look ahead to next week's Jackson Hole conference — we speak with Skanda Amarnath, the executive director of Employ America.

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We're in an age where shocks can occur on both the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, the causes are well known. Pandemics, trade wars, and climate disruption have exposed the frailty of supply chains in goods too numerous to list. On the demand side, the tendency for certain goods to suddenly go "viral" among consumers can be impossible to predict. Take Dubai chocolate. The craze for pistachio-filled candy came out of nowhere, in part thanks to social media. Our guests on this episode are super bullish on a different nut. Burton Flynn and Ivan Nechunaev are managing partners at Terra Nova Capital Advisors, where they look for unusual investments in frontier markets all around the world. On this episode, they tell us about their bull case for hazelnuts, including where they're grown, the economics of hazelnut agriculture, and the limited ways of playing this popular nut.

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We're interested in trucking here at Odd Lots. It's one of those industries that can tell us a lot about the economy, both in terms of the short-term cycle, and also long-term structural trends. Of course, we know that the industry is prone to big boom and bust cycles. And Alaska itself -- driven so much by oil and natural resource extraction -- is also known for its boom and bust cycles. So on our trip there, we spoke with Josh Norum, the CEO of Sourdough Express, an Alaska based trucking company that's been around for over a century. We talked about how the business works, the history of the company, the current economic environment, tariffs, and the unique challenge (and opportunity) of moving freight in America's northernmost state.

Read more:
Uber Freight Founder Joins Autonomous Big Rig Startup Waabi
Driverless Trucks Lumber Along With Safety-First Approach

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Alaska is no stranger to supply chain issues and a higher cost of living. Almost everything has to be imported into the state, incurring longer lead times and extra transportation costs — and that’s even before adding in the new tariffs from the Trump administration. In this episode, we speak with Dave Cavitt, the founder and CEO of Furniture Enterprises of Alaska, which owns furniture stores for brands including La-Z-Boy, Mattress Firm, Ashley’s Furniture, and many more. We talk to him about the logistical challenges of selling furniture in Alaska, consumer demand right now, the impact of the tariffs, and much more.

Read more:
Who Loses the Most From Trump’s Tariffs? Who Wins?
US, Japan Working to Announce Reciprocal Tariffs Won’t Stack

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Alaska is one of the states in the Federal Reserve's 12th District, which is headquartered in San Francisco. For Mary Daly, the head of the SF Fed, the state right now is a leading indicator for the US economy overall. In an interview recorded on a trip to Anchorage, Daly tells us what she's learning from businesses in the state, how it relates to the rest of the US economy, and how she uses what she's learning on the ground in order to best guide monetary policy. We also get her big picture views on structural trends such as AI and an aging workforce, and why she's growing increasingly confident that the tariffs will not contribute to sustained upward pressure on inflation.

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The Chinese Communist Party is probably one of the most difficult entities in the world to grasp due to its opacity of its inner workings. A new book from Joseph Torigian, a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover History Lab and an associate professor at American University, sheds light on the entity by examining the life of Xi Zhongxun, the father of Xi Jinping. The elder Xi was one of the earliest and important players in the revolution, and his life trajectory -- having spent 16 years out of power during the Cultural Revolution -- offers a lens into how the party operates. On this episode, we discuss Xi Zhongxun's life, the constant pressure to stay on the correct line, and what his struggles might tell us about how his son rules China today.

Read more:
China Draws Red Lines on US Chip Tracking With Nvidia Meeting
The AI Showdown: How the US and China Stack Up

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Late last week, Donald Trump shocked Wall Street by firing Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency responsible for publishing some of America's most important economic data. The firing came after the BLS released a weaker than expected jobs report for July, with just 73,000 new jobs added for the month (compared to forecasts for 103,000). The bureau also revised jobs numbers for the prior two months down by nearly 260,000 jobs. Trump called the data "rigged." But why does the BLS make these revisions, and what does the firing of the BLS chief mean for anyone trying to gauge the direction of the US economy? In this episode, we speak to Bill Beach, a former BLS chief, about the latest drama in US economic statistics.

Read more:
Trump to Name New Fed Governor, BLS Head in Coming Days
S&P 500 Bounces 1% After Weak Jobs Data Stokes Rate-Cut Optimism

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When it comes to tech startups, you often hear about VCs making a ton of money, or founders experiencing life-changing exits. But something is changing in the world of AI. Now it's the engineers themselves getting pay packages that can be in the 9-figure range. Why is this? Why is it happening? How is it changing the culture of Silicon Valley and business more generally? On this episode, we speak with John Coogan and Jordi Hays, the co-hosts of TBPN, a daily show about technology, which covers the industry in a sports-like manner. We talk about the economics of these transactions, why they make sense, and who are the industry's top superstars.

Read more:
Meta Seizes Its Moment to Spend Aggressively in the AI Race
Apple Rebound Looks Elusive as AI Woes Draw Investor Scrutiny

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Everybody knows that New York City has a ton of pizzerias. And yet, new ones are opening up all the time. Why do we need more? And how is there still money to be made? On this episode, we speak with Alex Xenopolous, Evan Xenopolous, and James Shields, three restaurant entrepreneurs that recently opened up Xeno's Pizza, a shop close to the Bloomberg offices in Manhattan. We talked about everything from location scouting, to the cost of ingredients, to oven technology, the state of New York City, and how any given establishment differentiates their brand in the hopes of making money by selling what on the surface looks like an abundant, commoditized market.

Read more:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/5-top-new-york-city-restaurants-to-try-right-now-summer-2025

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Bakeries are great microcosms of the economy. There's lots of labor involved. You need commodities like flours and eggs, plus energy for your ovens. You need capital investment to get the ovens in the first place, and you need sustained consumer demand to keep you in business. Put it all together and you have a business that tells you a lot about what's going on right now. In this episode, we speak with Andy Kadin, who is the owner of the Los Angeles-based bakery Bub & Grandma's, as well as a sandwich shop and a soon-to-open pizzeria. We talk about what the bread business entails, how much money people are spending right now, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on food costs.

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Stablecoins are emerging as one of the most active areas of cryptocurrencies. The idea of using blockchain rails to transmit money has captured the attention of legacy financial institutions as well as policymakers, as evidenced by the recent passage of the GENIUS Act, which builds out a regulatory framework for that business. But what are the opportunities. And how do stablecoin providers actually make money? On this episode, we speak with Jeremy Allaire, the co-founder and CEO of Circle, which is the company that backs USDC, the second biggest stablecoin on the market. We discuss the company's business model, concerns about financial stability, and the prospects for stablecoins to open up entirely new avenues of payments and commerce.

Read more:
Trump Crypto Group Offers Proposals to Boost Digital Finance
FIS Partners With Circle to Offer Bank Stablecoin Payments

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President Trump has announced tariffs on basically every trading partner. However there is a real sense that the ultimate goal is to hamper the growing perceived economic threat from China. One vision, for how the trade war could be "won" in some sense is by isolating China from the rest of the world. But that's not happening. And in fact, if anything, China is deepening its relationship with other trading nations, particularly in Asia right now. On this episode we speak with Cameron Johnson, a partner at the consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions. Cameron is based in Shanghai, and has an on-the-ground perspective on the state of Chinese manufacturing, having worked alongside producers and end buyers. He talks about the scale of Chinese manufacturing dominance, what Chinese firms are doing to counteract the tariffs, and he argues that in artificial intelligence, China is already way ahead in many respects.

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Tension between the US and China has been building for some time. But so far this has been limited to issues of trade. The US has imposed tariffs on China. It's imposed restrictions on technology exports. In turn, China has imposed some of its own tariffs, and also limited the export of things like rare earth metals. But historically speaking, many hot wars have their roots in some kind of trade-related tensions between nations. So the risk exists that a trade war one day becomes a hot war. So how does this happen, and how can it be avoided? On this episode, we speak with Dale Copeland, a professor of international relations at the University of Virginia. He discusses his theories of trade, and we discuss his most recent book, A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy From the Revolution to the Rise of China, which specifically discusses the prospect for an outright US-China confrontation.

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Today, the cost of energy — things like electricity, or gas, or heating oil — is considered an essential piece of economic data. But it turns out that for much of America's history, we've been overlooking a crucial economic figure: the cost of firewood. For decades, firewood was the dominant energy source powering the US economy. And yet there aren't really any official statistics about firewood prices. After all, how would you even go about putting a price tag on something that's growing in a lot of people's backyards? On this episode, we speak with Nicholas Muller, a Carnegie Mellon University economist and author of the new paper, "Firewood in the American Economy: 1700 to 2010," which attempts to fill in this crucial gap in our economic data. We talk about how Nicholas went about finding 300-year-old firewood prices, and what the new data series can tell us about the development of the US economy and the relationship between growth and energy.

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People talk all the time about the potential for huge turning points in history. And they've been talking about the possibility of the US losing its dominant position in the international financial order for some time. So far it hasn't really happened, but there are plenty of people who think that the Trump's focus on tariffs and higher deficits could mark a sea change in the appetite for dollar assets. In this episode we speak with Inigo Fraser Jenkins, strategist at Alliance Bernstein, about some of the big changes that are altering the investment landscape including: higher debt loads across the world, the rise of AI, de-globalization, demographics, and more. As he points out, the difference right now is that we're not just talking about one possible regime change for investors, but a long list of them. Inigo talks about how these shifts might play out and what investors can do to prepare for them.

Read "The End of US Exceptionalism?" by Inigo Fraser Jenkins

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Probably the most controversial proposal from New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani is his promise to freeze the rent on a substantial chunk of rent-stabilized units in the city. There are concerns that this will cause a major downshift in housing development and that landlords that are heavily exposed to rent-stabilized units will be driven deeper into distress. But then separately there are major real estate owners who may be threatened by other aspects of Mamdani's real estate vision. For example, he has promised to, in some instances, expedite approvals for new buildings, which could take away the competitive edge from major building owners that know best how to work the approval process. But there are also players in the real estate industry who are excited about new opportunities. If housing production does, in fact, slow down, that could mean higher rent on market-rate units. And if Mamdani significantly expands the supply of free childcare in the city, then that could present an opportunity for some owners of commercial real estate. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with past guest Ben Carlos Thypin, a NYC landlord himself, as well as the founder of the analytics firm Quantierra. He gives us the overall lay of the land on how various players in the real estate industry are preparing for Mamdani's possible victory.

Read More: Mayor Eric Adams on the Future of New York City

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