Odd Lots

There’s a long history of US presidents putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the techniques have often been subtle or quiet in some way. Under President Trump, attacks on the Fed have risen to a whole new level. And it’s not just Trump that’s called on Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates. Other members of his administration (along with allies in Congress) have been hammering him both on policy and also topics unrelated to monetary policy, such as the cost of renovating the Federal Reserve building in Washington. Investors are taking seriously the prospect that Trump will find a way or a reason to remove Powell before the end of his term next year. And regardless of when Powell is replaced, there’s a widespread anticipation that the next Fed chair will be someone more closely resembling a Trump loyalist. So do we still have an independent Fed at this point? On this episode, we speak with University of Texas-Austin economics professor Carola Binder about why central bank independence is so cherished by economists, why mere criticism of the Fed could be inflationary, and whether Fed independence has been permanently damaged.

Read More:
Odd Lots Newsletter: Central Bank Independence Is a Spectrum
What Happened the Last Time a Fed Chief Was Bounced

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Incumbent NYC Mayor Eric Adams didn't run in the Democratic primary. But he'll be on the ballot in November, running as an independent against Zohran Mamdani and probably a couple of other candidates as well. So what is his vision for addressing affordability? What can the Mayor do about crime, trash, and other quality of life issues. On this episode, we're joined by Eric Adams to talk about the city's future and his plan for securing re-election.

Read more:
Ex-NYPD Commissioner Sues Adams Over ‘Systemic Corruption’
Adams’ Fundraising Doubles Mamdani’s Since Shock NYC Primary

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If there's one thing that lawyers do a lot of, it's spending a prodigious number of hours going through documents. And they're often very well compensated for this work. So if there's one area where AI can obviously be highly disruptive, it's law. Documents that used to take hours to scan or format might be dealt with instantly. Finding relevant prior case law is becoming much faster, thanks to today's most advanced models. On this episode, we speak with Joel Wertheimer of Wertheimer Fleder LLP, a civil rights law firm in New York. We discuss the actual economics of being a lawyer, how it's changing, the effect that the technology will have on the distribution of income going forward, and what the entire profession could look like years into the future.

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Rohit Chopra is a former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which was created in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. In this episode, we speak with him about the current status of the CFPB under the Trump administration, and Rohit's experience while working at the bureau, including decisions made by regulators during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others. Rohit frames his experience as one where he was often dealing with the convergence of old-fashioned banking with lightning-fast technological development. In this context, we also talk about stablecoins (which Rohit says aren't really "crypto," per se), why US banks are now trying to turn themselves into "super apps," and the massive growth of "Buy Now, Pay Later" platforms.

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When socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic party's nomination for NYC mayor, top business leaders experienced a bout of hysteria. That's according to Kathy Wylde, the president and CEO of the non-profit organization the Partnership for New York City. Founded in 1979, the organization assembles the CEOs of some of the biggest employers in New York City in order to work on city issues. Wylde herself is often characterized as one of the ultimate NYC power brokers. In fact, she's been actively facilitating phone calls and meetings between Mamdani and the CEOs (most of whom backed Cuomo in the primary) who are anxious about what a socialist mayor would mean for the city. We talked to her about what they're most concerned about, what they want to see from Mamdani (if he wins), what could push businesses and people to move out of the city, and what they think about him after they talk.

Read more:
NYC Billionaires Are Richer Than Ever as Mamdani Pushes for Higher Taxes
City-Run Supermarkets Aren’t New. But No One’s Tried Them in a City Like New York

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For investors, geopolitical risks are always lurking as a factor that could upend trades for obvious reasons. When war breaks out, it's crucial to have some kind of understanding of what it will mean for various markets (such as oil or grain) and how long the conflict can persist. But is there any way to analyze these things scientifically? Many people are paid by investors to try to do exactly this. On this episode, we speak with Andrew Bishop, the global head of policy research at Signum Global, about what he does, and how he attempts to forecast the future. We use the recent conflict between Israel and Iran (as well as other sources of global tension) to get a better understanding of how he goes about forecasting, how investors use his research, and what he sees going forward.

Read more:
Israel Is Now Peerless in the Middle East and Markets
Israel Emerges Stronger From Iran War, But Risks Blowback

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Multi-strategy hedge funds, composed of lots of individual portfolio managers, have seen assets under management boom in recent years, thanks to astonishingly consistent returns throughout the cycle. If you're one of the PMs, the money can be incredibly lucrative. But job security is fickle, and it's easy to lose your place on the team. So how do you actually get your seat and keep it? On this episode, we speak with Brian Yelvington, a consultant at the recruitment firm Carrington Fox. He's also a longtime veteran of the industry, having been a trader at many large firms. He discusses how people get their foot in the door, the skills needed to succeed, and how to think about optimizing returns while avoiding ruin.

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What do young professionals in New York City actually think about money and capitalism? According to our guest Emily Sundberg, creator of the Feed Me newsletter, there is a foreboding sense that nobody is coming to save them. End times are coming. AI will take all the jobs. There's a limited time to "secure the bag." In this live episode, recorded in New York City in June, Emily talks about how this translates into consumption and investing decisions among today's youth, and how they see the world of politics.

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Every day we're inundated with headlines that are seemingly unbelievable. Multiple major wars are ongoing. Politics is erratic. Markets are scrambling everyone's brains. So how should we live and feel good? How should we think about the world around us, and the various perceived risks out there. In yet another episode from our live Odd Lots special in New York City last month, we speak with famed author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the scientific advisor at Universa Investments, who shares his perspective on all things.

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Stocks plunged after the April 2 "Liberation Day," in one of the worst drawdowns in the market's history. Since then, however, we're basically back to all-time highs and things have been pretty calm in the market. On this episode, recorded live onstage at our June 26 event in New York, we speak to Nomura cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott, about what's been driving the rally. He says he's seen "relentless" selling of volatility as investors who sold back in April chase the rally. That's culminated in some weird market dynamics. The question, of course, is how long this can continue and what it would take to unsettle things from here.

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Okay, that's quite a title but we think it's justified! In this special episode — recorded live onstage at our June 26 event in New York City — we bring together some of the best thinkers we know when it comes to the US Treasury market. US government bonds form the backbone of global financial markets, and are the "risk-free" rate to which all other rates are benchmarked. But recently, there's been concern about who will buy all those bonds as the US deficit explodes higher. Meanwhile, there have been long-running concerns about volatility and liquidity in the market. We speak with Nellie Liang, senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institution and former undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance, Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Josh Younger, a lecturer at Columbia University and repeated Odd Lots guest.

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Robinhood, the company known for first introducing commission-free trading, has now become a behemoth with all kinds of different business lines including credit cards, savings vehicles, crypto, and wealth management. This week it's announced further expansion with news that it's launching its own chain, as well as tokenized stock trading (that for now is only available in the EU). On this episode, we speak with founder and CEO Vlad Tenev about its new endeavors, as well as the legacy of the 2021 meme stock mania, the evolution of the YOLO traders, the changing regulatory environment, and when we can expect to have 24/7 on-chain stock trading in the US.

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For awhile there was just MicroStrategy (which has since been renamed as Strategy.) It started buying Bitcoin, and then raised money to buy more Bitcoin, and the stock has done phenomenally well, despite the company not doing much else beside holding Bitcoin. But now it has spawned numerous copycats all doing the same thing. But the question is why? Why are people willing to buy shares of a company that owns Bitcoin, rather than just buying Bitcoin outright (which anyone can easily do now that there's an ETF)? On this episode of the podcast, recorded live in New York City, we speak with famed short-seller Jim Chanos about this phenomenon. We also talk about NYC real estate in the age of Zohran Mamdani, the latest at Tesla, private equity, and whether AI can replace people who understand accounting.

Read more:
Michael Saylor Shifts to Using Preferred Shares to Buy Bitcoin as Criticism Rises
Musk Confidant Afshar Leaves Tesla in Latest High-Level Exit

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Think of a biotech company and most people will think of a business trying to come up with cures and treatments for human illnesses. There's not a lot of discussion about companies trying to do the same for animals, insects, or even... crustaceans. And yet, healthy animals are a key part of the ecosystem and important for our food supply. In this episode we speak to Annette Kleiser, CEO of Dalan Animal Health, which has developed the world's first vaccine for bees and is now working on a similar treatment to protect shrimp. We talk about the development and regulatory process, plus what it's actually like raising money for a brand new business.

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Iran is a huge country with a sizable stock market. And yet, years of sanctions and other restrictions mean it’s tough to even look up its stock prices (much less invest there.) In this episode, we catch up with Maciej Wojtal, CEO and CIO of AmtelonCapital, an Amsterdam-based fund that specializes in Iranian stocks. We talk about what the past week has been like for the market, what he’s hearing from people on the ground in Tehran, plus disruptions to businesses and oil. We talk about how Iranian investors handle major geopolitical risk and the outlook from here.

Read more: Iran’s Khamenei Says US Intervention in War Achieved Nothing

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We talk all the time about the US attempting to become a powerhouse in advanced manufacturing, but a lot of it just sounds like talk that's not going anywhere. But some companies are trying. Boom Supersonic is an 11-year old company that has raised hundreds of millions of dollars in its quest to build a new supersonic jet for commercial air passengers. And it believes that just because the business model of the Concorde didn't work out in the end, that there's no reason there can't be a market for ultra-fast travel in the sky. On this episode, we spoke with Boom founder and CEO Blake Scholl about the business, and how they actually plan to manufacture planes. We discuss the challenges of advanced manufacturing in the United States and why he believes that small startups can succeed, even while legacy aerospace firms like Boeing stumble.

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Today's episode is a re-run of our interview from last month with Queens assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. On June 24, Mamdani won the first round of the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City, making him the presumptive party nominee and the early favorite to win November's general election. So it's the perfect time to revisit the candidate and his unique platform. Endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, he's proposing rent freezes, universal childcare, higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, free buses, and city-run grocery stores. In this conversation, we talked to the would-be mayor about his socialist vision for New York, including how he plans to fund more public goods, what he would do to ensure that government-run services are up to standard, and why there should be Halal carts on every street corner.

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Right now, Nvidia stock is back near its all-time highs, thanks to seemingly unquenchable demand for its AI chips. When it comes to profiting off of this boom, Nvidia's lead and lock-in looks almost unassailable. But there is one particular company that is clearly on the mind of CEO Jensen Huang, and that is Huawei. On this episode, we speak with Washington Post reporter Eva Dou, the author of the new book House of Huawei: The Secret History of China's Most Powerful Company. Her book explains how the historical development of Huawei is basically synonymous with the rise of modern China, having started early on in Shenzhen, when that was one of the few parts of the country where capitalism and free enterprise were allowed to take root. She discusses what the company does, how it became so strong, its links to the Chinese government, and how it emerged as a possible rival to Nvidia.

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Madison Carter is a fearless investigative reporter. She takes no day for granted because she lives with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Dr. Doug Melton is a world-renowned stem cell researcher and distinguished fellow at Vertex – and his now grown children, Sam and Emma, live with T1D. Along with scientists like Dr. Felicia Pagliuca, who leads Vertex’s research into T1D, he’s been on a quest to help Madison, Sam, Emma, and others like them by investigating the disease at a cellular level.  

Produced by Bloomberg Media Studios and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. 

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Quantitative investing is one of those terms that you hear all the time, but there's various explanations of what it actually means, or how quants actually make money. And of course, the term means different things in different contexts. In this live episode, recorded at the Bloomberg Equity Intelligence Summit on June 12, we speak again with Giuseppe Paleologo, the head of quantitative research at Balyasny Asset Management. We talk about his role, what quant investing actually is, and what the future of the space actually entails.

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Zichen Wang is the writer of the Pekingnology newsletter, which translates important speeches and articles from China into English, and contextualizes them for Western readers. Over the past year, he's been a master's degree student at Princeton University, although he's recently returned home to resume his career at a think tank in China. His stint in the US obviously came at a very interesting time, both due to the rising US-China tensions, and also the growing restrictions on Chinese students in the US. So before making his trip back home he joined us for another episode of Odd Lots. We discussed his experience here in America, his assessment of the state of US-China relations, and what his message will be upon his return to China.

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After the GFC, there was a lot of angst over the fact that so much effort and brainpower went into designing complex derivatives, and other financial instruments. Not only was this seen as wasteful, the complexity was deemed to be the heart of the crisis, and therefore bad. But all these years later, looking back, how bad is financial complexity really? What do things look like from the perspective of 2025. On this episode we're joined by Gillian Tett, a columnist at the Financial Times, and also the author of several books including Fool's Gold: The Inside Story of J.P. Morgan and How Wall St. Greed Corrupted Its Bold Dream and Created a Financial Catastrophe. We talked about her reporting on the evolution of financial derivatives, their legacy, what she is concerned about now, and why she sees the world entering into a new, post-neoliberal, fifth stage of capitalism.

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Somehow, the American consumer remains quite strong. Despite higher interest rates, tariffs, general economic uncertainty and so forth, people are continuing to spend. And yet there are some pockets of weakness that you can observe, especially if you look at delinquency data for various types of credit. But even here the patterns aren’t totally obvious, as it doesn’t break down nicely among prime vs. non-prime borrowers. But there is one important divide: Do you have a ZIRP-era mortgage or not? According to Morgan Stanley housing strategist Jim Egan, there is a massive difference in how strained people are for those who locked in their housing costs prior to 2021 vs. those who didn’t. People with ZIRP-era mortgages are benefiting from low stable payments (which have declined on a real basis), as well as broad equity accumulation. Those who didn’t are much more strained in their finances. We discuss how this is playing out, as well as the state of the housing market more broadly, which has seen rising inventories, and the possibility for an overall downturn in prices nationwide.

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Back in May, President Trump announced this big plan whereby American tech giants would participate in major AI projects in both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The announcement has created divisions within the White House, and more generally among people who are thinking about the intersection of artificial intelligence and geopolitics. One argument is that this is great news geopolitically, because it gives American technology a beachhead in this crucial region. Another argument is that by exporting the chips abroad, it creates a possibility that some of the technology will leak to China, or benefit China in some way. On this episode we speak with Bloomberg News reporter Mackenzie Hawkins, who covers tech and geopolitics in Hong Kong, about the deals, the divisions, and what to watch next as the US looks to maintain its edge in these key areas.

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The Trump administration seems to have a lot of big ideas about reshaping America, including its economy. We've seen the unveiling (and delaying) of sweeping tariffs aimed at boosting US manufacturing. The 'Big, Beautiful Bill' is currently working its way through Congress and features a lot of supply-side economic ideas, including an extension of tax cuts. So do all of these things work together to boost growth? What happens if that growth doesn't materialize? What is the administration's ultimate vision for the US economy? And what are they seeing right now in terms of things like inflation and employment? We speak with Stephen Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers at the White House.

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The focus of Trump's trade policies is clearly China. There are tariffs on everyone, of course, but it's the growing Chinese manufacturing might, and the various perceived risks associated with that, which have catalyzed this impulse to rethink how America trades with the rest of the world. But can the US actually move the manufacturing center of gravity? On this episode we welcome back Harvard Professor Ricardo Hausmann. We've had him on before to talk about the importance of economic complexity -- the capacity to build complex things -- in measuring the wealth of nations. On this episode we use that lens to discuss tariffs and the trade war, and the risks that the new administration's policies will play in reducing our capacity to build the most advanced things.

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These days, it's common to talk about the emergence of a New Cold War that exists between the US and China. It's debatable whether or not this is a useful framing. But in order to answer the question, it requires that you have some conception of what the original Cold War actually was. Vladislav Zubok, a professor at the London School of Economics, has a new book out on exactly this question. In The World of the Cold War: 1945-1991, Zubok attempts to explain how we should understand this period, which he sees as both an ideological battle, as well as a geo-strategic one — and also a battle that the two main actors (the US and the USSR) saw very differently at the time. In addition to understanding the contours of that tension, we discuss its applicability today, as the new administration attempts to re-arrange our relationship with China and the Middle East, as well as other rivals, allies, and partners.

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Bloomberg Businessweek brings you a smart and fun chat show about all things...business. Hosted by award-winning business and economics journalists Max Chafkin (author of The Contrarian: Peter Thiel and Silicon Valley’s Pursuit of Power) and Stacey Vanek Smith (former co-host of NPR’s Planet Money and reporter for Marketplace), Everybody's Business is powered by the unparalleled sources and reporters who bring you Businessweek magazine’s headlines and the stories behind them. The show gives listeners a window into the discussions happening in boardrooms, Zooms and group chats in power centers around the world. From interpreting Fed meetings to the business of wolf cloning, each week Max, Stacey and their friends at Bloomberg Businessweek guide listeners through what really went on during the last week from Wall Street and Main Street. Because what’s happening with money and markets is everybody’s business.

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Egg prices have come down a lot since their recent record and bird flu has largely faded from the headlines. But the epidemic is still raging and, per one farmer, risks becoming endemic in the US. Glenn Hickman is president of Hickman's Egg Ranch in Arizona, one of the largest egg producers in the US. You might remember him from our series last year, Beak Capitalism, in which we explored some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy through the medium of chickens. Well, news from the Hickman farm since then hasn't been good. A bird flu outbreak has led to the destruction of 90% of Glenn's chicken stock. We talk about the impact on Glenn's business, egg prices, and why the US isn't vaccinating its chickens.

Check out Beak Capitalism
Read more: To Understand America’s Egg Crisis, Look to China’s Pork 

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We're about two months on from Liberation Day, and there's still a lot of confusion about what's going on with global trade. Some countries, like China, have been granted delays from tariffs. But other trade restrictions, like the 50% tariff on foreign steel, have come into effect. So what exactly is going on and what impact is this having on the physical flow of goods into America? In this episode, we catch up with Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of LA, to get a sense of what he's actually seeing and what it means for US consumers and the prospect of empty store shelves.

Read more: Port Leaders Warn Tariffs Bring ‘Radical Uncertainty’ to Economy
Empty Store Shelves Might Be Coming Sooner Than You Think

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To some extent, at least in big cities, it feels as though the cost of housing is enveloping almost everything else in terms of politics right now. Booming areas that drive GDP have gotten incredibly expensive in large part thanks to rent, and even the well paid residents are forced to turn over a significant share of their income over to their landlord. So can anything be done about it? Can rent come down by liberalizing supply and making it easier to build? And can that scale? And what about developers that only want to build luxury-rate housing? On this episode of the podcast, we speak to Steven Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, which sits directly across the river from NYC. Fulop is a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination for governor and he says his time in office in Jersey City proves cities can turn the dial on housing supply. We talk about why Jersey City has added so much to its housing stock, what can be attributed to his policies, and what he thinks can be accomplished at the state level both in terms of housing and improving public infrastructure.

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President Trump wants Apple to make iPhones in America. The company itself has talked about — and to some extent already has been — moving more of its production to other countries, like India. But in reality, Apple remains deeply, deeply enmeshed in the Chinese supply chain. In fact, the rise of Apple, and the iPhone specifically, is the ultimate example of the link between the American and Chinese economies. And while this has been fruitful for shareholders all around the world, and contributed greatly to Chinese economic development, this relationship is also now perceived to be a huge source of geopolitical vulnerability for the United States. On this episode, we speak with Patrick McGee, a reporter at the Financial Times and the author of the new book Apple In China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company. He talks to us about how Apple discovered the opportunity of doing more manufacturing in China, and how close the company has become with Chinese political leadership. We walk through both the politics and the economics that makes it almost impossible to imagine the company building its products anywhere else at significant scale.

Odd Lots Live is returning to New York City on June 26. Get your tickets here!

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What is a currency? This turns out to be one of those questions we just kind of skip over because we don't have clear answers to it (and because economists often like to skip over these foundational things). This special episode of the Odd Lots podcast was recorded as part of Princeton University's “How to Write the Biography of a Currency” event, hosted by the Princeton Economic History Workshop and the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy & Finance. In this discussion, we talk about how we should define a currency and how that definition has changed (or not) over time. Our panelists were Iñaki Aldasoro, an economist at the Bank for International Settlements, Indiana University Bloomington Professor Rebecca Spang, and Stefan Ingves, the former head of the Sveriges Riksbank, the central bank of Sweden, from 2006 to 2022.

Read more:
Dollar Drops on Renewed Trade Uncertainty, Soft Economic Data
Asia’s $7.5 Trillion Bet on US Assets Is Suddenly Unraveling

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We're told over and over again that the one "free lunch" in investing is diversification, and that you can improve your returns over time simply by investing in a wider range of assets. This is textbook modern finance. And yet over the past several years this hasn't been the case. An investor would have done great (with the occasional hiccups) just by investing in US stocks. What's more, even within US stocks, investors should have concentrated on big tech stocks. Going long US tech has been identified as the most crowded trade by investors for years, and yet most of the time it has outperformed almost everything else. So what are the lessons from this story? And is now the moment where international diversification is going to work? On this episode, we speak with veteran portfolio manager Krishna Memani, who is now the chief investment officer at Lafayette College. Previously, he was the CIO at OppenheimerFunds, which got bought by Invesco. We talk about portfolio theory, the tragedy of the prudent international investor over recent decades, and whether that realized return we've seen across a range of asset classes should prompt a fundamental rethink of finance theory.

Odd Lots Live is returning to New York City on June 26. Get your tickets here!

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Michael Cembalest has been an investment analyst for almost 40 years and his research notes have drawn a cult following on Wall Street. He's known for going super deep into a wide range of topics, like energy and healthcare. And lately he's been writing a lot about AI, with a particular interest in figuring out whether all the investment in data centers and compute will translate into actual profits. On this episode, we talk to the chair of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Management about why AI is the market "bet of the century," why the dominance of US big tech can't be overstated, and why he's pessimistic about the outlook for small modular nuclear reactors.

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Multi-strategy hedge funds have been having a moment with big asset allocators pouring billions of dollars into names like Millennium and Citadel. And given all the growth, multi-strat funds have also been battling each other for talent. But why, exactly, do big investors seem to love multi-strats so much? What actually makes a multi-strat good to invest in? And how do fees and compensation work? In this episode, we speak with Ronan Cosgrave, a partner at Albourne Partners, which advises institutional investors on investing in hedge funds and other alternative asset classes. We talk about key differences between multi-strats and pod shops, plus the importance of pay to the business model.

The Math Powering Profits at Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds
Multistrategy Hedge Funds Delivered Again in 2024

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We're just a month away from the hotly-contested Democratic primary for New York City Mayor. And one of the candidates -- Queens assemblyman Zohran Mamdani -- is running on a somewhat unusual platform. Endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, he's proposing rent freezes, universal childcare, higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, free buses, and city-run grocery stores. In this conversation, we talk to the would-be mayor about his socialist vision for New York, including how he plans to fund more public goods, what he would do to ensure that government-run services are up to standard, and why there should be Halal carts on every street corner.

Read more: NYC Mayor Ditches Democratic Primary to Seek Independent Bid

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This week the big story in markets is the selloff in bonds. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries jumped 20 basis points from last Friday’s low, while the 30-year rate is back above 5%. Meanwhile, 30-year Japanese government bonds clocked their highest yield since records began in 1999. And rates on UK gilts, German bunds, and Australian bonds are also rising. To make matters even more unusual, US Treasury yields are going up while the dollar is weakening (something that doesn’t usually happen.) So what’s going on? And how much does this have to with worries over the US fiscal position, the return of inflation, and the outlook for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve? On this episode, we speak with Steven Englander, global head of G-10 FX research at Standard Chartered. We talk about what’s driving the dramatic moves and the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy.

Read more:
Deglobalization’s Threat to the Bond Market
US Bonds Swing as Dip Buyers Enter After Moody’s-Fueled Selloff

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When we think about the prospect of deglobalization (whatever that means) we often think about it in terms of the goods economy. Supply chains get rerouted. Manufacturing becomes more localized, and possibly less efficient. But changes to the global world order also have implications for Wall Street, and the world of dealmaking. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Scott Bok, the longtime former chairman and CEO of the investment bank Greenhill & Co., which is now part of Mizuho. Scott is the author of the new book, Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing, which covers his long career as an investment banker starting in the early 1980s. We talk about what investment bankers actually do, and also how the great Wall Street dealmaking boom over the last several decades is, in large part, a story of globalization, and the opportunity for firms to roll up localized companies into cross-border giants. He talks to us about how the bankers themselves served as essentially evangelists of the pro-capitalism message of the Reagan era, spreading the gospel of shareholder primacy all around the world.

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This is obviously an extraordinarily difficult time to make economic forecasts. Nobody really knows how tariffs will affect the US economy. And beyond that, nobody knows what the ultimate state of tariffs will be, or if they'll ever settle into a predictable rate. So how do you conduct monetary policy in this environment? On this episode, recorded at the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta, we spoke with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. He walked us through how he's thinking about the dual mandate right now, and why he has significantly dialed back his expectations for aggressive rate cuts since the start of 2025.

Read More:
For Exhausted Stock Market Pros the Choice Is Buy or Stay Home
Powell Signals 2020 Fed Framework Language on Chopping Block

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The new administration has a "drill, baby, drill" mantra and a much more liberal attitude towards the oil and gas industry than the last one. But that hasn't translated into great profits for the oil industry itself. Crude prices have sunk and tariffs have raised the cost of components for companies trying to get energy out of the ground. So, what's the future for the industry? And who is actually making money right now? In this episode, we talk to longtime energy industry veteran Peter Tertzakian, the founder and president of Studio.energy, which consults with various industry players. We discuss the state of the overall North American energy industry, the prospects of peak onshore oil production in the United States, pipeline politics, and why liquified natural gas is expected to be the hydrocarbon of the future.

Read more:
Say Hello to ‘Nil, Baby, Nil’ in the Oil Patch
Trump’s Thirst for Cheap Oil Irks an Industry He Loves to Praise

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There's been a lot of talk recently about parallels between Donald Trump's economic policies and the Nixon Shock of the early 1970s. That was when the former president took the dollar off the gold standard, introduced hefty tariffs, and pressured the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. The moves sparked stagflation in the US and shook up the global monetary order. Now, given Trump's determination to rebalance the US relationship with global trading partners and his criticism of the Fed, could history repeat itself? On this episode, we speak with Perry Mehrling, professor of international political economy at Boston University's Pardee School of Global Studies, and the author of the book Money and Empire. We talk to him about similarities and differences between the Trump administration's current economic policies and the Nixon Shock, as well as why he thinks dollar dominance won't be dislodged anytime soon.

Read more:
Dollar Poised for Worst First 100 Days of Presidency Since Nixon
The Problem With the Fed Isn’t Independence, It’s Accountability

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Gold prices have been booming and are near record highs. And seeing the line go up — especially during a period of so much uncertainty —  makes people want to buy more. That includes acquiring actual gold coins. But where do gold coins come from? Why do people want coins, as opposed to just bullion? And who is buying them? On this episode, we speak with Philip Diehl, the president of gold vendor US Money Reserve. Earlier in his career, he was the 35th director of the US Mint, where he was instrumental in such endeavors as the 50 States quarter project, the Sacagawea dollar coin, and also the language that allows for the creation of the trillion-dollar platinum coin. We talk all about the business and supply chain of coinage, and who's buying these coins today.

Watch on YouTube
Read more: Gold Advances as Market Weighs Upcoming US-China Trade Talks

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Over the last several years, the world has watched as China edges close to or past the technological frontier in more and more areas. Earlier this year, US investors were jolted even further when DeepSeek's AI model proved to be close to the state of the art American models. So what is the process by which China actually develops new tech? Why has it worked out so well? And how do priorities set by President Xi Jinping actually get transmitted to researchers and businesses? On this episode, we speak to Kaiser Kuo, the host of the Sinica podcast. He discusses the cultural dimension of tariffs, and what he sees as a fundamentally different attitude towards the benefits of technological progress in China vs. what is seen in the US.

Read more:
I’m a DeepSeek AI Bro Now

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America's textile industry has famously declined over the years, with a bunch of production moving to lower-cost places like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Now, with the Trump administration imposing heavy tariffs on exports from these countries, the US clothing industry is facing another big shock. In this episode we speak with Sarah LaFleur, founder and CEO of M.M.LaFleur, which makes high-quality work clothing for women (Tracy is a big fan). She walks us through what the past month has actually been like for a smaller clothing business trying to understand and deal with the tariffs. We talk about the conversations she's been having with mills and factories in China, how the tariffs are already impacting future seasons of clothing, the scramble to secure space on ships before the tariffs hit, and how businesses actually pay the new taxes.

Read more: A New ‘China Shock’ Is Destroying Jobs Around the World
One Ship, $417 Million in New Tariffs: The Cost of Trump’s Trade War

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By now, everyone recognizes that the US and China are in the middle of a trade war, with the Trump administration having imposed tariffs of as much as 125% on Chinese goods. For an export-focused economy like China's, that's a big deal. At the same time, China is pretty much the only major country that's chosen to retaliate against the US with its own set of fresh trade restrictions. So why did it decide to reciprocate? And what's its negotiating position as the US and China head into initial talks? Can the Chinese economy -- and its policymakers -- withstand the pain of a trade war? We speak to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics and a long-time China watcher, about how China might actually respond to the new tariff regime.

Read more:
Xi Fortifies China’s Economy Before First Talks on Trade With US
What Years of Practice Tariffs Have Done

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Every industry is going to be affected by the trade war in different ways. In many cases, we don't know how it's going to play out. Other industries are seeing an immediate impact. Companies that specialize in computer gaming are highly reliant on inputs from China and other East Asian countries. These companies assemble customized gaming rigs and other peripherals (cameras, chairs, controllers, speakers etc.). On this episode, we're joined by Stephen Burke, the founder of Gamers Nexus, a publication and YouTube channel that primarily exists to review products in this space. When the tariffs were announced in early April, he immediately set out to film a documentary titled The Death of Affordable Computing. In that 3-hour video, he talked to numerous players in the space on their profit margins, and how they will be hurt by the changing trade policy. We speak to Steve about this industry, and what he learned about what tariffs will do to both their profitability, or even their viability as ongoing businesses.

Read more:
Microsoft Raises Xbox and Game Prices, Citing Rising Costs
Amazon, Apple Earnings Show Tariffs Are Coming for Big Tech, Too

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There are several markets that have really settled down since the tumult of early April. But strange, unusual things are still popping up, particularly in the currency space. Over the last few days, we've seen a huge surge in the Taiwan dollar. This is important, in part, because Taiwanese life insurance companies are major buyers of US dollar assets, such as corporate bonds. Suddenly, they're looking at a major hit to the value of these holdings, with losses that are only partially hedged. So why the sudden move, and what does it mean? On this episode, we speak with Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We first talked to Brad about exactly this topic back in 2019, when the story was more of an intellectual curiosity rather than a market-moving development. We discuss the implications, and what it means in the context of the Trump administration's trade strategy.

More:
Why Taiwanese Life Insurers Are The Great ‘Whodunit' Of The Financial World
Taiwan’s Markets Jolted as Currency Surges Most Since 1980s

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What does history say about how big the AI boom can get, and who will ultimately win out? When does a boom turn into a bubble that turns into a bust? On this episode of the podcast, we speak to Henry Blodget, the founder of Business Insider (and Joe's old boss there). In the late '90s, Henry was one of the most well-known Wall Street analysts covering internet stocks, before the crash and recriminations, which ended up in his lifetime ban from the industry. His new project is a publication called Regenerator, which will again focus on business and tech. We discuss the state of the AI boom, and what lessons we can draw from the dot-com era. We also talk politics, what's changed on Wall Street over the last 25 years or so, and a bit on the state of the media business.

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Over the last several years, both parties in the US have been drifting away from laissez-faire thinking about the economy, and more towards the view that the state has an active role in shaping markets. You have Republicans talking about stricter anti-trust and sovereign wealth funds, and of course Democrats embracing things like industrial policy efforts in key strategic sectors. But how do you design markets well? When does it fail? And what is the history of this type of thing in the US. In this episode, we speak with Facebook co-founder-turned-economist Chris Hughes, who has published the new book Marketcrafters: The 100-Year Struggle to Shape the American Economy. In this conversation, recorded at the New York Public Library in April, we talk about his research on the history of marketcraft in the US, and how that study of history informs his understanding of today's economic policymaking.

Read more: Markets Plummet as Tariff-War Woes Fuel Exodus From US Assets

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