Bloomberg Surveillance

- Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary
- Russ Koesterich, Portfolio Manager at BlackRock
- Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Investment Management
- Seth Carpenter, Chief Global Economist at Morgan Stanley

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins to discuss the US and China will temporarily lowering tariffs on each other's products and his weekend negotiations. Russ Koesterich, Portfolio Manager at BlackRock, talks about how equities are responding positively to easing tensions between the US and China on trade. Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Investment Management, talks about the global outlook for equities amid US-China trade negotiations. Seth Carpenter, Chief Global Economist at Morgan Stanley, talks about whether an agreement between the US and China on trade lessens the odds of a US recession.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 12th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Geoffrey Yu, Senior Strategist: EMEA at BNY, talks about the market reaction to the US-China trade agreement and why the worst-case scenarios for markets are now a thing of the past. Investors rushed back into US assets, powering a 3% surge in S&P 500 futures, after China and the US agreed to cut tariffs and de-escalate their trade war.
2) Jordan Rochester, Head: FICC Macro Strategy EMEA at Mizuho, on the "Sell America" narrative getting squeezed as the US dollar strengthens. The dollar topped a one-month high on the US-China trade talks, while gold fell more than 3% and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed five basis points to 4.42%.
3) Lori Calvasina, Chief US Equity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, joins for an extended discussion on equity relief post-US-China trade talks and whether she expects further choppiness. Every S&P 500 sector has advanced since President Trump's April 9 pause on his harshest tariffs, with gains led by information technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary segments.
4) Huw van Steenis, Vice Chair at Oliver Wyman, on how international investors will re-balance their portfolios in reaction to US-China trade talks. Market breadth indicators, such as the 40-Week Technique Indicator and the S&P 500's cumulative advance-decline line, are signaling optimism and strength in the market, with some strategists boosting their allocation to stocks.
5) Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, talks about why the result from Treasury Secretary Bessent's negotiations are the "best case scenario" for tech. Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, and Tesla took off in premarket trading following the announcement on trade.

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- Peter Navarro, Senior Counselor: Trade & Manufacturing at the White House
- Alicia Levine, Head: Investment Strategy and Equities at BNY Wealth
- Sarah Bianchi, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI
- Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities

Peter Navarro, Senior Counselor: Trade & Manufacturing at the White House, joins for a discussion on the US_UK trade deal and other potential trade agreements. Alicia Levine, Head: Investment Strategy and Equities at BNY Wealth, discusses the outlook for the S&P 500 and equities as the US reaches a trade deal with the UK and continues negotiations with other countries. Sarah Bianchi, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI, talks about the latest on US trade policy. Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, talks Big Tech and how US giants will continue to fare through 2025.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 9th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Sarah Ponczek, Portfolio Manager at UBS, on company paralysis and whether market sentiment is really changing after the single trade deal with the UK. Investors nvestors are focused on the outcome of the weekend trade talks between China and the US, as the Trump administration is considering a significant tariff reduction in talks with China to ease economic pain and de-escalate tensions.
2) Shana Sissel, founder & CEO of Banrion Capital Management, brings us into the market open and talks about caution and opportunity in AI & tech. It comes as the S&P 500 briefly topped its April 2 high, led by economically-sensitive sectors, while Treasury yields surged as traders pared bets on interest-rate cuts.
3) Joanna Gallegos, co-Founder at BondBloxx, talks about why fixed income needs to be a bigger part of investor portfolios, as long as investors are precise in their pickings, and talks about risks being signaled in the bond market. The market could be pricing in de-escalation at this weekend’s US-China talks. If there’s no such positive message, global markets could be hit hard Monday.
4) Ankur Daga, CEO and founder at Angara, discusses US/India tariffs implications for the diamond market and how CEOs are strategizing amid tariff uncertainty. It comes as US Secretary Howard Lutnick mentioned a potential future tarde agreement with India, but noted that it will require a lot of work, with around 7,000 lines of tariffs to be changed or modified.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on a Soviet spacecraft falling back to Earth and Bloomberg's report on Costco monthly payment plans.Eric Mollo

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature a conversation with Professor Richard Portes.

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- Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at NYU
- Esther George, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
- Kelsey Berro, Executive Director: Fixed Income at JPMorgan Investment Management
- Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors

Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at NYU, reacts to yesterday's Fed decision and explains why he believes the US economy could soon thrive. Esther George, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, on Wednesday's Fed decision and whether there will be rate cuts in 2025. Kelsey Berro, Executive Director: Fixed Income at JPMorgan Investment Management, talks about the risk signals from the bond market about the US economy. Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, reacts to yesterday's Fed decision and discusses the risks to the US labor market.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 8th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at NYU and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, joins to discuss the Fed decision and a recent op-ed on why he believes the US economy will survive the Trump shock and thrive. It comes as Fed Chair Jay Powell says he won't lower borrowing costs until there's more certainty on the direction of trade policy, which will have to come from the White House.
2) Ken Shinoda, Portfolio Manager at DoubleLine Capital, talks growth and inflation, signals from the bond market, and pressures in MBS market. Bond investors continue to search for clarity after Chair Powell suggested the Fed will wait for conviction on whether the next move is a cut based on the economy moving towards a recession or whether it's a move towards more restrictive policy due to high inflation becoming entrenched into the economy.
3) Richard Portes, professor at London Business School, joins in studio to talk tariffs and the dollar exchange rate, risks of a financial crisis, and a potential US-UK trade deal. The announcement is expected to boost the UK economy and markets, but investors will closely examine the extent to which Trump is willing to backtrack from his sweeping tariffs imposed on April 2.
4) Michael Nathanson, founding partner and Senior Research Analyst at Moffettnathanson, discusses his note on The Beginning of the End for Search in reaction to Apple's VP of Services comments. Apple is considering revamping Safari to focus on AI-powered search engines, potentially ending its longtime partnership with Google. Eddy Cue, Apple's senior vice president of services, believes AI search providers will eventually replace standard search engines like Google and that Apple will bring those options to Safari in the future.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on REAL ID Day and a NYT story on Agatha Christie, who died in 1976, teaching a class in AI.

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials are not in a hurry to adjust interest rates, adding tariffs could lead to higher inflation and unemployment. “If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced or sustained, they’re likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in unemployment,” Powell said Wednesday at the conclusion of a two-day meeting in Washington. “The effects on inflation could be short lived, reflecting a one time shift in the price level,” he said. But it’s “also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent.”

Officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December. In a statement, policymakers said they see a growing risk of both higher inflation and rising unemployment. “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. They added, “the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”

The S&P 500 index of US stocks and Treasury yields fell following the announcement, while the dollar pared gains.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Mike Green & Frances Donald.

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- Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist at Evercore ISI
- Priya Misra, Portfolio Manager at JPMorgan Asset Management
- Keith Lerner, Co-CIO at Truist
- Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income

Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist at Evercore ISI, joins for a look at equities and gives his S&P 500 target as investors continue to look for clarity on trade deals. Priya Misra, Portfolio Manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, discusses signals from the bond market on the outlook for inflation and slower growth. Keith Lerner, Co-CIO at Truist, offers his outlook on equities and markets. Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses inflation, the US economy, and today's Fed meeting.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 7th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Mike Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins for an extended discussion on the outlook for equities, what's behind the jobs report figures, the "ETF-ification" of the market, and talks about why he believes the "obsession" with inflation is overblown. US stock futures rose and the dollar gained as China and the US prepared to hold their first confirmed trade talks since President Trump unleashed his global tariff war.
2) Christel Rendu de Lint, co-CEO at Vontobel Asset Management, joins to discuss the global economic outlook amid the tariff environment and favorable asset classes post-tariff announcement. With China and the US preparing for trade talks, the meeting will focus on de-escalation rather than reaching a deal, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the current tariff rates aren’t sustainable.
3) Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC Capital Markets, on slower growth and higher prices in the US economy. The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday is next up for investors, with traders looking for clues on how soon the central bank could embark on policy easing and how deep the rate-cutting cycle might be.
4) Vishal Khanduja, Head of Broad Markets Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, on why today's Fed meeting won't be about a rate move, but decoding the Powell puzzle. US Treasuries slipped ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, with investors betting on a slower pace of monetary easing due to data suggesting economic resilience. The Fed's decision and comments from Chair Jay Powell to be closely scrutinized for insight into officials' interpretation of recent data.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on high-schoolers with $70,000-a-year job offers and the FT's story on sandals in the workplace.Eric Mollo

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Torsten Slok & Jeffrey Rosenberg.

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- Sarah Hunt, Chief Market Strategist at Alpine Saxon Woods
- French Hill, Republican US House Representative: Arkansas
- Jonathan Pingle, Chief US Economist at UBS
- Jason Bazinet, Global Head: EMT Sector at Citi

Sarah Hunt, Chief Market Strategist at Alpine Saxon Woods, joins to discuss how equities are faring ahead of this week's Fed decision and how Chair Jay Powell's comments could shape the direction of the market. French Hill, Republican US House Representative: Arkansas, talks about his role as Chairman of the Financial Services Committee and Congressional priorities heading into the summer. Jonathan Pingle, Chief US Economist at UBS, talks about the outlook for the US economy and inflation amid uncertain tariff policy. Jason Bazinet, Global Head: EMT Sector at Citi, talks about President Trump's proposed tariffs on the film industry.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 6th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, joins for an extended discussion on tariffs, the outlook for the US economy, a potential recession in 2025, and this week's Fed meeting. Global stocks fell today due to concerns about the trade war's impact on companies and the world economy. Recent optimism fueled by US trade concessions is fading, and markets are bracing for an economic slowdown, with investors reducing exposure to the US and expecting fewer Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
2) Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock, offers his outlook for the US economy, signals from the bond market, and long/short strategies as investors weigh how to play stocks and bonds. Investors are coming around to the view that the Fed won’t cut interest rates as early or as deeply as earlier anticipated. While it’s expected to leave interest rates on hold this week, money markets have pushed back the timing of the first reduction to July and see three cuts by year-end, rather than the four they had expected a week ago.
3) Joe Mazzola, Head Trading and Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab, talks about client activity, where investors are playing risk in markets, and what concerns they're expressing amid growing economic uncertainty. While the spot VIX index has fallen to near where it was before stocks slumped on tariff fears in early April, the VIX futures curve is signaling concerns that the market turbulence may return.
4) Zohran Mamdani, NYC Mayoral Candidate and NYC assemblyman, discusses his candidacy for mayor, his proposed policies, and whether Democratic Socialists like him are a key piece of the future of the national Democratic platform. According to one Democrat - NY House Rep. Pat Ryan - Democrats must take more risks to counter the GOP power trifecta successfully or they could face an extended stint on the sidelines.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including reports on the fashion and fundraising from the Met Gala and a WSJ exclusive on the Trump administration holding schools responsible for students paying back their loans.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Ian Lyngen & Robert Schiffman.

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- James Bullard, Dean of the Purdue Business School and former St. Louis Fed President
- Chris Harvey, Head: Equity Strategy at Wells Fargo
- Kate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director at McLarty Associates
- Erin McLaughlin, Senior Economist at The Conference Board

James Bullard, the Dean of the Purdue Business School and former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis previews this week's Fed decision and discusses the outlook for interest rates amid tariff uncertainty. Chris Harvey, Head: Equity Strategy at Wells Fargo, discusses his S&P target and talks about whether the rally in equities has long-term potential. Kate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director at McLarty Associates, discusses the latest on global trade deals and where the US could make progress with allies and foes. Erin McLaughlin, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, talks about recent eco data and how it will affect this week's Fed decision.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 5th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Ian Lyngen, Head: US Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Market, talks about the 10-year outlook and if Treasury Secretary Bessent's sub-4% target is in the cards following last week's inflation reading. President Trump seized on strong job growth to pressure Fed Chair Jay Powell to cut interest rates, but bond traders concluded the opposite, dialing back rate-cut bets.
2) Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy and Equities, BNY Wealth, brings us into the market open and discusses her S&P outlook and why she's downgrading risk in her portfolio. Financial markets have steadied in the past two weeks as Trump dialed back his tariffs amid signs that trade talks are progressing, and the S&P's looking to extended its longest winning streak in 2 decades.
3) Dana Telsey, Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group, joins for a Big Picture look at the consumer and where tariffs could hamper their spending. It comes as University of Michigan US consumer sentiment has fallen to one of its lowest points on record amid tariff, inflation, and price uncertainty.
4) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, takes a look at DC headlines, talks Congressional priorities heading into the summer, and discusses her note "It's Beginning to Look a lot like COVID." President Trump's 2026 budget request outlines deep cuts to domestic agencies, including a 22.6% cut in spending for the 2025 fiscal year, and significant reductions to environmental and renewable energy programs, early childhood education, and foreign aid.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on Corporate America leaving more jobs unfilled and Bloomberg's analysis of how tariffs will impact Hollywood.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Claudia Sahm & Adam Posen.

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- Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers
- Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock
- Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research
- Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James

Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, joins to discuss how the White House is reacting to the April jobs report. Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock and Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research offer their analysis of April nonfarm payrolls. Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James, discusses the latest on President Trump's tariff policy and other economic policy initiatives.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 2nd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist at Morgan Stanley, Sarah Hunt, Chief Markets Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, and Kristina Campmany, Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, react to the April jobs figures. The S&P 500 has notched eight consecutive days of gains, its longest run since August, amid increased optimism that trade tensions are waning, but many strategists feel a market bull run will be driven by strong economic data.
2) Gene Seroka, CEO of the Port of LA, joins for a discussion on how tariffs on China are affecting port traffic and what it could mean for the US economy. In March, Seroka predicted a possible 10% volume decline in the second half of this year due to substantial inventory and tariff uncertainty. Port data continues to be of interest to economists and market watchers.
3) Anurag Rana, Senior Tech Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, wraps big tech earnings. Tech earnings and expectations of trade deals drove optimism in the markets, with investors awaiting the US jobs report on Friday, the last significant data release this week.
4) Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, talks about his Foreign Affairs piece on why trade wars are easy to lose. Still, market sentiment has remained upbeat due to reports of the US reaching out to China for tariff talks, causing the dollar index to climb and Treasury yields to rise.
5) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, brings us into the market open and discusses whether the US has stepped too far into the trade war and whether a recession is inevitable. While Wall Street's risk appetite has increased due to strong tech earnings - causing the S&P 500 to rise for eight consecutive days - it's unclear where trade deals with China and other partners will end up.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Dan Ives & Gene Munster.

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- Binky Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank
- Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel
- Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities
- Ian Lyngen, Head: US Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets

Binky Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank, discusses his most recent S&P 500 target and his outlook for US equities amid continued uncertainty over US tariffs. Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel, talks about the Trump admin's economic policies and flexibility in pivoting and adjusting its approach to tariffs. Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, discusses Big Tech earnings, previews Apple, and talks Tesla leadership. Ian Lyngen, Head: US Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets, talks about the outlook for the 10-year yield and whether Treasuries are set to fall.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 1st, 2025
Featuring:
1) Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins to talk "calm(er)" markets, labor data, and Investing Day. In the premarket, US equity futures rallied on stronger-than-expected tech earnings and relief over signs the Trump administration is stepping back from its harshest tariff threats. Tech giants added to investor optimism that deals between the US and its partners would limit the damage from President Donald Trump’s trade war, and traders boosted bets on Fed easing later this year.
2) Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, joins to talk big tech earnings and Tesla leadership. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm denied a report that the board was looking to replace CEO Elon Musk, saying directors are "highly confident" in his ability. The denial came after a Wall Street Journal report that Tesla board members had contacted executive search firms to find a successor to Musk earlier this year.
3) Leland Miller, CEO at China Beige Book, joins to talk about his latest China data release, Trump's China tariffs play, and the president's willingness to pivot. President Trump acknowledged that his tariff program had a perception problem and posed a significant political risk, but he remained determined to push on. Trump stated that there was a "very good chance" he would strike a deal with China, but only "on our terms" and if it's "fair".
4) Brad Lander, NYC Comptroller & Mayoral Candidate, joins to discuss his NYC mayoral campaign, congestion pricing, Trump's tariffs, and other city issues.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on how AI is helping job seekers pivot to new careers and another story on a Sam Altman-Backed startup rolling out eyeball-scanning tech across the US.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Jim Caron & Peter Tchir.

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- Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC
- Ryan Petersen, Chairman, CEO, and founder of Flexport
- Christopher Hughes, co-founder of Facebook
- Eric Rosengren, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC, looks ahead to this week's jobs report and other economic data soon-to-be-released, and whether he sees investors having to weather a recession in 2025. Ryan Petersen, Chairman, CEO, and founder of Flexport, discusses supply chain constraints and navigating the trade war. Christopher Hughes, co-founder of Facebook, discusses the company and Big Tech ahead of Meta earnings. Eric Rosengren, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, discusses his outlook for the US economy and interest rates and talks Fed independence.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 30th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at Blackrock, joins for an extended discussion on her weekly global credit report and discusses corporate credit spreads and signals from the bond market. Uncertainty continues to be the main theme across the investing world. Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius said he’s keeping 95% of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty. Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported.
2) Jim Caron, CIO of Cross Asset Solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, talks about whether the dollar and US treasuries are still safe havens and how he tries to contextualize that discussion. In a broader look at the economy, real GDP likely slowed to a standstill in the first quarter as President Trump’s policy shifts disrupted activity, according to Bloomberg economists.
3) George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, joins to discuss economic fundamentals and incoming eco data and how that, possibly more than policy, will shape markets in the coming months. Stock drifted in early trading as investors await a busy day of earnings and macro data on the final session of an exhausting month. Mag 7 results, GDP and inflation numbers are potential catalysts for market direction.
4) Sinjin Bowron, High Yield Bond and Senior Bank Loan Portfolio Manager at Beach Point Capital, discusses leveraged credit markets, opportunities and challenges amid widening uncertainty, and other signals from the bond market. US Treasuries held recent gains as traders awaited data on inflation and economic growth, as well as the debt management team's plans for sales in the $29 trillion market.
5) Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, brings us into the market open and talks about allocating and staying the course in a slowing economy. Economic data due this week includes inflation and gross-domestic-product data, which will provide a snapshot of US economic activity before President Trump's trade policy shifts.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Elizabeth Economy & Ethan Harris.

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- Savita Subramanian, Head: US Equity & Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America
- Collin Martin, Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab
- Kathy Bostjancic Chief Economist at Nationwide
- Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research

Savita Subramanian, Head: US Equity & Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America, joins to discuss the outlook for US equities and whether fundamentals are still in place for a bull run. Collin Martin, Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses signals from the bond market and outlook for Treasuries. Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist at Nationwide, and Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, preview this week's jobs report and talk about the outlook for the US economy and eco data in the US.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 29th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Russ Koesterich, Global Head of Investment Strategy for BlackRock Scientific Active Equities, joins for a discussion on near term volatility in stocks and whether the bull run in international stocks is set to slow. Investors are tracking a stream of data for clues on the health of the American economy and prospects for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with some experts warning of the risk of recession in the US. Tariffs continued to dominate headlines, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the US has put China to the side for now as it seeks trade deals with 15 to 17 other countries.
2) Elizabeth Economy, Hargrove senior fellow and co-director of the U.S., China and the world program at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, joins for a discussion on US-China relations and who has the upper hand in a trade war. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned countries against giving in to US tariff threats, saying it would only embolden the "bully". Wang's remarks came as the Trump administration hinted at using new trade tools to pressure Beijing, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested banning certain exports to China to gain leverage.
3) Ethan Harris, former Head of Research at Bank of America, talks about a potential golden age for the US economy and what a post-Powell Federal Reserve would look like. Currently, Fed Chair Jay Powell is trying to prevent price increases from spreading through the economy due to Donald Trump's tariffs, earning him the nickname "Mr. Too Late" from the president. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at their next meeting, and Powell has emphasized the need to keep longer-term inflation expectations anchored to prevent a one-time price increase from becoming an ongoing inflation problem.
4) Dr. David Dodge, former Governor of the Central Bank of Canada, joins to discuss Mark Carney's victory in the Canadian election. Canada's Liberal Party, led by Carney, is projected to win a fourth consecutive election, but with a narrow margin of victory. Carney's win represents a major turnaround for the Liberals, and he has pledged to focus on strengthening Canada's economic independence and standing up to US President Trump in a trade war.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including Fortune's story on a harsh new reality when it comes to groceries and inflation and Business Insider's look at how a Chinese mobile dating game is getting single women across Asia to open their hearts and wallets.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Robert Kaplan & Stephanie Roth.

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- Neil Dutta, Head: US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro
- Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner at Hogan Lovells US
- Abigail Yoder, Strategist: US Equity at JPMorgan
- Amanda Lynam, Head: Macro Credit Research at BlackRock

Neil Dutta, Head: US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, joins to discuss whether he's becoming more bullish on the US economy or whether he believes data indicates an incoming slowdown. Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner at Hogan Lovells US, discusses the latest on President Trump's trade negotiations and what potential trade deals could look like at this stage. Abigail Yoder, Strategist: US Equity at JPMorgan, looks ahead to this week's earnings and whether they could provide a boon for equities. Amanda Lynam, Head: Macro Credit Research at BlackRock, discusses spreads in corporate bonds and what the bond market is indicating about the US economic backdrop.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 28th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Robert Kaplan, Vice Chairman at Goldman Sachs and former Dallas Fed president, joins for a discussion about structural changes in the US economy, the incoming Fed decision and jobs day, and Fed independence. Sources say Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell recently delivered an impassioned defense of central bank independence when he addressed policymakers and finance ministers during a meeting at the International Monetary Fund, which reportedly drew applause.
2) Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, talks about Wolfe's lower-than-consensus NFP call for this week and her expectations for China tariffs. In addition to eco data and trade deals, key company reports this week will be scrutinized for the earnings impact of US trade policies, and fresh readings on the American economy may support hopes of earlier-than-expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
3) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins for a discussion on how Trump's recent poor polling could make his priorities harder to implement, and why Republicans passing their signature tax bill isn't a given. Voter discontent with President Trump's economic stewardship is sinking his popularity as he approaches the 100-day mark of his second term. Republicans aim to pass Trump's tax plan through a process that wouldn't require Democratic votes, but voter angst and the threat of a recession in the next year could make it challenging for Trump to get everything he wants.
4) Joe Lavorgna, Chief Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, brings us into the market open and talks about President Trump's tariff policy and whether he believes trade negotiations are on the right track. Investors are watching for signs of progress in US trade negotiations, with the Trump administration working on bilateral trade deals with 17 key partners and drafting a framework to handle negotiations with about 18 countries.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a story from the Wall Street Journal on athletes using Ozempic and Business Insider reporting on chick sales amid rising egg prices.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Matt Hornbach and Tim Adams.

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- Jason Thomas, Head: Global Research & Investment Strategy at the Carlyle Group
- Adewale Adeyemo, Former Deputy Secretary at the US Treasury Department
- Adena Friedman, Chair and CEO of Nasdaq Inc.
- Nathan Sheets, Managing Director: Citi Research

We are broadcasting from Washington as the IMF Spring Meetings come to a close. Jason Thomas, Head: Global Research & Investment Strategy at the Carlyle Group, joins for a discussion on the outlook for the US equity market as trade negotiations continue. Adewale Adeyemo, Former Deputy Secretary at the US Treasury Department, discusses recent market gyrations and what the Treasury is capable of doing to help support the economy. Adena Friedman, Chair and CEO of Nasdaq, talks about recent earnings and the IPO outlook. Nathan Sheets, Managing Director: Citi Research, offers his market outlook for 2025.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 25th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Bob Michele, CIO: Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins for an extended discussion on the bond market, the Fed, and outlook for markets. The dollar strengthened in early trading, while the yen and Swiss franc retreated, as investor demand for non-US haven assets waned amid signs of progress in the White House's engagement with major trading partners.
2) Tim Adams, CEO for the Institute of International Finance, joins for an extended discussion on his talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week and conversations from the IMF. Bessent called for a course correction for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, saying they serve "critical roles" and the Trump administration is willing to work with them.
3) Meghan Graper, Global Head: Debt Capital Markets at Barclays Capital, talks about the bright side of so much uncertainty: investment grade credit. Currently, markets favor a quarter-point cut in June and a total of three such reductions by year-end, with some experts predicting slow and bumpy progress in US-China relations but possible net positive newsflow via trade deal announcements.
4) Leslie Palti-Guzman, founder at Energy Vista, talks about the liquid natural gas (LNG) being used as a key strategic favor and retaliation in tariff and trade negotiations.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ Story on why baby strollers are getting hit the hardest by China tariffs and the New York Times report on ChatGPT costs.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Daniel Tannebaum & Anna Wong.

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- Ed Yardeni, President at Yardeni Research
- Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management
- Philip Lane, Chief Economist at ECB
- Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton Investments

Ed Yardeni, President at Yardeni Research, discusses his equity outlook, whether he's revising his S&P 500 target as tariffs continue to be negotiated, and if he believes the US will enter a recession. Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, discusses the global economic outlook as globalization and US tariffs reshape global investing. Philip Lane, Chief Economist at ECB, joins to talk about whether investors are turning bullish on Europe despite trade uncertainty with the US. Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton Investments, discusses asset allocation as the investing and business environment remains highly uncertain and volatile.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 24th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Jean Boivin, Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, joins for an extended discussion on the global economic transformation and how US trade policy is just one piece of the broader geopolitical global economic transformation. As China calls on the US to revoke unilateral tariffs, the country warns of the threat of ongoing frictions to trust in the global economic system and emphasize the need for cooperation to prevent the global economy from sliding into a track of "high friction, low trust".
2) Brian Kingston, President & CEO at the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, discusses how President Trump's tariffs will affect Canadian manufacturing, whether a leadership change in Canada will help, and how it could all change if the president backs off on 25% tariffs on car parts. The Financial Times is reporting that rump plans to spare carmakers from some of his most onerous tariffs.
3) Daniel Tannebaum, Partner at Oliver Wyman, joins from the IMF Spring Meetings in DC to discuss what he's hearing about tariffs and developments in a Ukraine-Russia deal. It comes as President Trump is pressuring Ukrainian President Zelenskiy to accept a peace deal, accusing him of prolonging the war, and says he hopes to meet with Russian President Putin soon. The US has proposed a deal that would effectively freeze the conflict, acknowledge Russia's occupation of Crimea, and ease sanctions on Moscow, but Ukraine and Europe want assurances of a ceasefire and security guarantees before any agreement.
4) Tina Fordham, founder at Fordham Global Foresight, discusses the geopolitical outlook amid an entirely unclear trade war and how policy is shaping markets, or vice versa. Many experts and leaders have called for policy certainty, with Citadel founder Ken Griffin most recently saying President Trump's trade war has derailed business leaders' plans to focus on growth for the next four years.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Business Insider report on Costco shoppers cashing in on company rewards and a WSJ report on college graduates facing a tough job market.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Gina Martin Adams & Huw van Steenis.

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- Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist at Evercore ISI
- Joachim Nagel, President at Deutsche Bundesbank
- Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Management
- Dan Ives, Head Global Technology at Wedbush Securities

Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist at Evercore ISI, offers his S&P 500 outlook amid further uncertainty about tariffs and corporate earnings. Joachim Nagel, President at Deutsche Bundesbank, joins from the IMF Spring Meetings to talk about the outlook for European and global economies as the US levies global tariffs. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Management, talks about the outlook for a US recession this year. Dan Ives, Head Global Technology at Wedbush Securities, breaks down Tesla earnings.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 23rd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Huw van Steenis, Vice Chair at Oliver Wyman, joins in studio for an extended discussion on Nixonian elements of Trump admin, global corporate and business confidence, and how it's all intersecting with what he sees in the financial and banking sectors. Markets and the economy are facing increased uncertainty, with President Trump most recently saying he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, despite his frustration with the central bank not moving more quickly to slash interest rates. Trump wants Powell to lower interest rates, saying it's a "perfect time" to do so, and would like to see the chairman be "early or on time, as opposed to late".
2) Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, breaks down Tesla earnings. CEO Elon Musk says he will devote more time to Tesla starting next month, scaling back his work with the US government, which has been a concern for investors. Tesla's stock jumped 7% despite missing analysts' estimates for revenue and earnings, with the company citing weakness in its core automotive business and tariff headwinds.
3) Chris Grisanti, Chief Equity Strategist at MAI Capital Management, brings us into the market open and what lower corporate earnings will mean for equities. Stocks and bonds rose as global markets reacted positively to the Trump administration's easing of tensions, including President Trump's statement that he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
4) Mick Mulroy, co-founder of the Lobo Institute, joins to discuss turmoil at the Defense Department. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been courting controversy, including sharing sensitive details about an impending US attack on Houthi militants on an unsecured commercial chat platform and purging some of his handpicked staff. Despite calls for Hegseth to be fired, President Donald Trump remains supportive, attributing the controversies to "disgruntled employees" and saying Hegseth is "doing a great job."
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including WSJ's story on fashion in Little League and Bloomberg's report on the hottest amenity at US airports.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Jeff deGraaf & Brian Belski.

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- Krishna Guha, Vice Chariman at Evercore ISI
- Rob Sockin, Director: Research at Citi
- Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and former NY Fed President
- Alex Nowrasteh, VP: Economic & Social Policy Studies at The Cato Institute

Krishna Guha, Vice Chariman at Evercore ISI, offers his outlook for markets and the US economy amid a brutal April for markets. Rob Sockin, Director: Research at Citi, discusses the risks to markets both from President Trump's tariff policy and should the president fire Fed Chair Jay Powell. Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and former NY Fed President, discusses Fed independence, tariffs, and the outlook for the US economy. Alex Nowrasteh, VP: Economic & Social Policy Studies at The Cato Institute, talks about the future of Fed independence and Chair Jay Powell.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney April 22nd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Jeff deGraaf, Chairman and Head: Technical Research at Renaissance Macro Research, joins for a discussion on Jay Powell, market risks, and tariffs. US stocks were higher in futures trading this morning as equities are set to bounce back from Monday's losses as investors weigh progress on trade talks with India and Tesla's upcoming earnings.
2) Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, brings us into the market open and discusses whether he remains a US equity bull. President Trump's demands on Jerome Powell to cut rates have raised concerns about the president's willingness to meddle with central bank policy and the impact on the economy.
3) Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, joins for a discussion on the dollar as the globe's reserve currency and how the trade war will harm China and the US. This morning, gold topped $3,500 for the first time, and other markets such as stocks, currencies, and commodities experienced mixed movements amid ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty.
4) Warwick McKibbin, non resident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, talks about his piece from the fall outlining the costs of Trump's tariff and deportation policies as well as his newest analysis released today on the US revenue implications of Trump's tariff plan.
5) Margaret Franklin, CEO of the CFA Institute, joins from our DC studio to discuss the CFA program, how it's evolving, and the impact of AI on the investing profession.
6) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Financial Times report on the marketing campaign of plant-based eggs and the Washington Post's look into the changing economics of college football and how it's affecting the NFL draft.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Liz Ann Sonders & Damian Sassower.

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- Cam Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth
- Terry Haines, founder at Pangaea Policy
- Leland Miller, CEO at China Beige Book
- Barbara Doran, CEO and CIO at BD8 Capital Partners

Cam Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, joins for a discussion on her 2025 outlook and whether equities could rebound amid volatility in the first quarter of the year. Terry Haines, founder at Pangaea Policy, discusses President Trump's tariff policies and turmoil for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Defense Department. Leland Miller, CEO at China Beige Book, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy in an intensifying trade war with the US. Barbara Doran, CEO and CIO at BD8 Capital Partners, discusses the outlook for markets amid comments from President Trump for a desired change at the Fed.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 21st, 2025
Featuring:
1) Julia Coronado, President/Founder of Macropolicy Perspectives, joins to discuss the precarious position the Fed is put in amid incoming tariffs and the possibility of higher inflation, and when or if Jay Powell will cut rates this year. The dollar weakened sharply as traders reacted to the possibility that President Donald Trump will try to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
2) Meghan Clark, professor at St. John's University, talks about the death of Pope Francis. He encouraged Catholics to embrace a more compassionate view on many issues but found it difficult to close the book on past abuses by clergy. He was 88, and passed away 7:35 a.m. Monday in Rome, the Vatican said in a statement. He had been hospitalized in Rome in mid-February with bronchitis, which progressed to pneumonia in both lungs — the last in a litany of respiratory and other medical challenges he had faced. On Sunday, he had met with US Vice President JD Vance.
3) Gautam Mukunda, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and Yale School of Management professor, joins for a discussion on politics and the forces pushing back or accepting certain norms being challenged by the Trump administration. President Trump is continuing his calls for a change at the head of the Fed, and there's growing pressure on US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amid reports of turmoil at the Pentagon.
4) Drew Matus, Chief Market Strategist at Metlife Investment Management, brings us into the market open and discusses the prospect of a recession as the US enters "trade war hell."
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including The Boston Globe looking into the best places to eat along the route of the Boston Marathon and Business Insider's story on men are getting cosmetic treatments and anti-aging procedures.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Amanda Lynam & Anastasia Amoroso.

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- Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College, Cambridge
- Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner at Hogan Lovells US
- Jean Boivin, Global Head: Research & Investment Institute at BlackRock
- Lauren Goodwin, Chief Market Strategist at New York Life Investment Management

Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College, Cambridge and Bloomberg Opinion columnist and Jean Boivin, Global Head: Research & Investment Institute at BlackRock, discuss the outlook for stocks and US economic growth, as well as concerns signaled from the bond market. Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner at Hogan Lovells US, discusses President Trump's political and economic priorities as tariff negotiations continue. Lauren Goodwin, Chief Market Strategist at New York Life Investment Management, offers her outlook for stocks and the US economy.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 17th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at Blackrock, talks about signals from the bond market, corporate credit spreads, and whether the market just experienced a tariff tantrum or whether deeper problems lie underneath. Following bond market turmoil triggered by the announcement of broad US levies earlier this month, investors are focusing more on developments in country-specific trade negotiations.
2) Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, brings us into the market open and discusses her outlook for growth in equities and the US economy. President Donald Trump said there was “big progress” in talks to strike a deal for Japan, which stocks responded to positively in pre-market trading ahead of the holiday weekend.
3) Jay Timmons, CEO and President of National Association of Manufacturers, joins to discuss manufacturing regulations and red tape, strengthening the manufacturing workforce, and whether tariffs and other Trump admin policies could actually revitalize manufacturing labor. Manufacturing output increased 5.1% in the first quarter, the most since late 2021, as customers boosted orders before tariffs hikes took effect. Despite the gain, manufacturing faces headwinds from higher material costs, trade policy uncertainty, and tariffs, which may impact production and investment plans this year and next year.
4) Ali Mortell, Director of Research at Blue Rose Research, joins to discuss Blue Rose's presentation that's made waves through Democratic politics, highlighting support President Trump garnered in 2024, how Democrats could claw back some voters, and what is the identity of the Democratic party.
5) Whitney Tilson, former hedge fund manager and NYC Mayoral candidate, discusses his candidacy and policy proposals, how he plans to gain support over Cuomo and Adams, and what the identity of the Democratic party should be. Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman donated $250,000 to a super PAC supporting former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York City's mayoral race after Ackman hosted a fundraiser for Tilson's bid earlier this year.
6) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story Costco's Kirkland brand bringing customers to the beer aisle and a New York Times report on possible signs of life on a distant planet.

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