Bloomberg Surveillance

 Brian Levitt, of Invesco says we're likely to see a pullback in 2024. Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics says it's not clear what the Bank of Japan is up to. Wendy Schiller of Brown University says it looks like Donald Trump owns the Republican Party. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President says he's bearish for the remainder of 2023.Zak Brown, CEO of McLaren Racing says it's awesome to see how big Formula 1 has gotten in the United States. 

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Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon Sr. Market Strategist, says "everything is on the table" for the BOJ after they announced a surprise loosening of yield curve controls. Jonathan Pingle, UBS Chief US Economist, says the US is still a long way from price stability. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the BOJ's surprise yield curve actions were to "take themselves away from being pushed into a corner by market conditions." Steve Chiavarone, Federated Hermes Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, sees core CPI at 3.9% this year. Jay Pelosky, TPW Advisory Principal & Founder, says "we're at the end of the rate hiking cycle in the west."

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Richard Clarida, Fmr. Federal Reserve Vice Chair, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor & Columbia University Professor, says one more Fed hike is in play in the fall. James Athey, Abrdn Investment Director, reacts to the ECB hiking rates by 25 basis points. Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon Chief Economist and Macro Strategist, says Fed Chair Jerome Powell is "pretty confusing."Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Meta revenue, forecast beating estimates.

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Surveillance discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. 

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. 

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Ethan Harris, BofA Securities Head of Global Economics, sees a mild recession early next year. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist says market is pricing in four Fed rate cuts next year. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist says there's a lot of disinflation in the pipeline. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Research Analyst says AI is going to bigger than the street anticipates. Sean O'Brien, Brotherhood of Teamsters General President says Amazon is definitely a target going forward.

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Drew Matus, Chief Market Strategist at MetLife Investment Management sees longer term potential growth at 3% GDP. Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income says the US remains on solid economic footing and doesn't expect a recession. Paul Jacobson, General Motors CFO says the company has the vehicles customers demand. Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley Head of Fixed Income Research says the Fed will hike this month, but not in September. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman & "Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein" Host sees slow office valuation diminution.
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Gargi Chaudhuri, BlackRock Head of iShares Investment Strategy Americas, says its too early to call victory on inflation. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Chief Economist, expects to see the last Fed hike of this cycle at Wednesday's meeting. Matt Brill, Invesco Head of North America Investment Grade Credit, says we are set up for 6 months of good total returns. Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, says Russia is strategically blocking grains.
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Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College Cambridge expects a dovish Fed and a hawkish BOE. Win Thin of Brown Brothers Harriman could see a higher dollar ahead. Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute for International Economics says the situation in the Black Sea is devastating. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research says that the development of AI will mean the fiscal system will need revamping. Vinai Venkatesham of Arsenal FC says the US has become their top international market ahead of their friendly in New Jersey against Manchester United. 

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Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says the Fed will hike in July and that will be it.Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Netflix earnings. Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, expects a dovish hike from the Fed next week. Steve Trent, Citi Americas Airline Analyst & Managing Director, discusses airline earnings, including United and American Airlines. Daniel Ricciardo, AlphaTauri F1 Driver, says he hopes to race for Red Bull again, as he prepares to make his return to F1 with AlphaTauri in Hungary this weekend.

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Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, believes the probability of a Fed hike after July is higher than what markets are pricing in. Anna Han, Wells Fargo Securities Equity Strategist, says you want to be "chasing" big tech momentum but "when the train has left, look for growth opportunities in other areas." Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says more weakness is coming to markets as defaults "flow through" but doesn't necessarily see a recession. Sri Natarajan, Bloomberg News, discusses Goldman Sachs earnings.
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Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says we're heading back to 2% inflation. Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Head of Derivatives Strategy, says the market rally could broaden out. Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research, sees a $90 ceiling for oil. Gregory Peters, PGIM Fixed Income Co-CIO, says markets are gaining excitement as they see policy rates peaking. Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, discusses Bank of America and Morgan Stanley earnings.
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Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, discusses tariffs on China and the state of the US economy. David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth CIO, says 2-2.5% inflation is possible in 2024. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says if the Fed is at the end of the cycle, bonds are going to outperform. Tom Michaud, KBW CEO, expects to see more consolidation among the smaller US banks.

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Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, discusses US bank earnings kicking off. Meghan Swiber, BofA Director of US Rates Strategy, expects stickier inflation in the near-term. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says the US is on track for a soft landing. Pooja Sriram, Barclays US Economist, sees a mild, shallow recession.
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Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says we are nowhere near the 2% inflation target.Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, is sticking with his 4,600 S&P price target but says it could be raised to 4,800. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, expects GDP growth in the US to be the slowest among the major economies. Erika Najarian, UBS Equity Research Analyst, Large-Cap Banks and Consumer Finance, previews US bank earnings kicking off Friday.
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Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. Bloomberg's monthly program, Chief Future Officer, profiles these leaders and explores the impact they're making on their companies and industries. This episode profiles Fenway Sports Group CFO Julie Swinehart, who plays a central role in the company's plans to expand its portfolio of professional sports teams and continue investing in venues and real estate development.

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Bill Dudley, Fmr. NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the latest US CPI data won't change the Fed's trajectory in the July meeting. Michael Gapen, BofA Securities Head of US Economics, sees nominal GDP growth remaining healthy until 2025. Megan Horneman, Verdence Capital Advisors Chief Investment Officer, says the Fed can't take their foot off the pedal yet. Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Market Strategist, discusses the US June CPI print.
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Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, still expects a recession but says it doesn't have to be severe. Phil Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager, says his recession probability has dropped to 25% from 40% in March. Claudia Sahm, Former Federal Reserve Economist, Sahm Consulting Founder & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says everything is puzzling with the Fed. Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Chief investment Officer, expects a short and shallow recession. Jonathan Miler, Miller Samuel President & CEO, says housing prices will rise more than people think.
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Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says if we do have a recession, the market will be able to focus on the bigger picture and it may not be as damaging as some assume. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, says we'll need a recession in order to get inflation to 3% or below. Alifia Doriwala, RockCreek Group Managing Director, says diversification is key, "especially in this type of uncertain environment." Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities Head of US Rates Strategy, sees the first Fed cut in March of 2024.
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Julie Su, Acting US Secretary of Labor, discusses the US June payrolls report coming in below estimates. Randall Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Fmr. Fed Governor, says "wage growth is still stronger than the Fed will feel comfortable with." Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says the jobs report "keeps the Fed on the path for an addition rate increase later this month." Christian Horner, Red Bull Racing Team Principal, says Max Verstappen "continues to surprise us" and there's "more to come."

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Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, reacts to the ADP report and US jobless claims. Dominic Konstam, Mizuho Americas Head of Macro Strategy, says a hard landing is still on the radar. Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, says we're in a "tricky late-cycle environment." George Goncalves, MUFG Head of US Macro Strategy, says it would take a lot to derail a hike at the next Fed meeting. As Instagram unveils the Threads app, Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says it will be "very difficult" to gain critical mass.

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Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI Chairman & Head of Macro Economic Research, sees the Fed hiking one more time then they will be done. Thomas Tzitzouris, Strategas Head of Fixed Income Research, believes inflation expectations are bottoming for this cycle. David Lebovitz, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, warns against chasing the rally. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, isn't surprised by Saudi Arabia's search for "global prestige" in the sports world, as they are "not really getting it from oil anymore." Helane Becker, TD Cowen Senior Research Analyst, discusses the airline industry following the influx of travel on July 4th.

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Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist says it would take a payroll print of less than 100,000 and a downside surprise in CPI for the Fed to not hike in July. Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist says the US is in a growth recession today. Anna Han, Wells Fargo Securities says it's time to take some profits on your winners. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President says rates are going to continue to drift higher. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Director of Policy Research says the bar is low for US-China talks. 

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Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, sees a recession in the first half of 2024. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst, discusses Apple as Citi sees another 30% upside. Paul Donovan, UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Economist, says we're seeing disinflation. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says he struggles to see a big downside surprise in earnings. Clint Henderson, The Points Guy Managing Editor, discusses airline delays persisting ahead of the holiday weekend.

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Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, says good news is bad news for the Fed. Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Macro Strategy, says equities in Japan look attractive. Elyse Ausenbaugh, J.P. Morgan Global Wealth Management Investment Strategist, says leadership in the next cycle will look different. Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, discusses commodities. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg News, discusses UBS tapping Morgan Stanley’s Tom Wipf to help lead Credit Suisse tie-up.
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Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical & Macro Strategy, says they've seen some "stalling in tech." Joseph Amato, Neuberger Berman President and Chief Investment Officer for Equities, says central bankers are still at the "center of the debate" with what will happen in the economy. Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, discusses BlackRock's mid-year outlook. Helane Becker, TD Cowen Senior Research Analyst, discusses airlines preparing for the holiday travel weekend. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, talks about his market positioning and why he's currently net short.
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Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says we're seeing some "fatigue" in tech buying. Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says a number of factors could be "muting the effect of monetary policy transmission," and as those effects decline, "we can start seeing more of a slowing in activity." Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist, sees weakness ahead for the dollar. Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth CIO, believes in the 60/40 portfolio plus alternatives. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder, discusses his interview with Afsaneh Beschloss, RockCreek Founder & CEO.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance 

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Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President, says Putin doesn't have "real friends" on the global stage.Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Head of Derivatives Strategy, says if tech goes, the market goes. Collin Martin, Schwab Center for Financial Research Fixed Income Strategist, says one more rate hike from the Fed is likely. Geoffrey Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Market Strategist, sees clear signs of a demand slowdown.
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Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, sees the Fed getting above 5.5% before the end of the year. Michael Collins, PGIM Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Manager, says there's low risk of a deep recession. Linda Duessel, Federated Hermes Senior VP & Senior Equity Strategist, expects the Fed to keep higher for longer as they stick to their inflation target. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says China President Xi is more concerned about trade issues than what Joe Biden says about him. Brad Dillman, Cortland Chief Economist, discusses the commercial and residential real estate market.
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After the BOE raised interest rates by 50 basis points, Sree Kochugovindan, Abrdn Senior Research Economist, says there's still more to do. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, discusses Turkey's Lira sinking to weakest on record. Michael Gapen, BofA Securities Head of US Economics, says consumer spending continues to slow but at a moderate pace. Bruno Le Maire, France Economy & Finance Minister, says it is crucial to maintain a high level of investment in Europe. Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine Prime Minister, says it's impossible to think of Russia winning the war.
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Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Equity Strategy, says we're seeing more of an economic malaise than recession. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says we're headed into an environment where 2-3% inflation will become the "norm." Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says there's room for spreads to move higher. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, says the number one story to watch out for this summer is Ukraine. Ginni Rometty, Former IBM CEO & Author of "Good Power: Leading Positive Change in our Lives, Work and World," says there's little tolerance for AI to be wrong.
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Claudia Sahm, Former Federal Reserve Economist, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Sahm Consulting Founder, says forget about a Fed cut this year. Scott Chronert, Citi US Equity Strategist, says we need to navigate recession risk. Meghan Swiber, BofA Director of US Rates Strategy, says yields are at attractive levels. Sebastien Page, T. Rowe Price Head of Global Multi-Asset & Chief Investment Officer, says the 60/40 portfolio needs to be "modernized." Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, discusses Blinken, Xi's meeting in Beijing.
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 On this Juneteenth holiday, Bloomberg's Sonali Basak brings us this Bloomberg Radio special report. 

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In her new podcast, Bloomberg journalist Emily Chang sits down for intimate interviews with the biggest names at the intersection of tech, business, entertainment and culture. Join her every Thursday for a behind-the-scenes look at the most exciting and influential trends, and the big personalities behind them.     

Listen & Subscribe:     
Apple: apple.co/3NzkJda     
Spotify: spoti.fi/3Picljp     
Anywhere: bit.ly/3PiDrqK

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 Ann Miletti, Allspring Global Investments Head of Active Equity, says active managers are "mining for gold," searching for names that haven't been recognized. Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Fonder & CEO, Marketreader Founder & CEO, says investors aren't paying enough attention to the structural shifts of capital flow into China. Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says no one is threatening another default. John Lovallo, UBS US Homebuilders & Building Products Equity Research Analyst, doesn't expect a big decline in home prices.
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Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says an ECB rate of 4% is not the base case but is "possible" after the latest 25 bps hike. Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says more shocks are hitting Europe than the US. Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy RBC Capital Markets, discusses the equity market following the Fed decision. Pat Toomey, Former Senator (R-PA), says Trump is his own worst enemy. Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO & Co-Founder, discusses the PBOC lowering its main policy rate.
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Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. Bloomberg's monthly program, Chief Future Officer, profiles these leaders and explores the impact they're making on their companies and industries. This episode focuses on Monumental Sports & Entertainment CFO Peter Biché, who discusses his role in the growth of the $4 billion sports empire headed by Ted Leonsis.

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Lisa Surveillance discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. 

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Lisa Surveillance break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist & Chief Investment Officer, says inflation will come down but "it's not going to be good for stocks." Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, suggests there could be a scenario in which the Fed "has to come back" if inflation doesn't go down. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, believes the Fed would need to go higher to really crack the economy. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says it's surprising to see the markets pricing in so much Fed easing. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst, discusses Apple and AI.
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Abby Joseph Cohen, Columbia Business School Professor & Retired Goldman Sachs Partner, says there's a divergence between investors and commentators on economic data. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Senior Economist, discusses the US May CPI print. Jacob J. Lew, Former US Treasury Secretary, says we're not yet done with seeing the impacts of higher interest rates. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics & Policy Director at Brown University, says the Trump indictment is a development for democracy and that Presidents "should be held accountable."
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Liz Young, SoFi Head of Investment Strategy, sees an ongoing appetite for tech among younger investors. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Managing Director, says US banks are winning. Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income Chief Investment Strategist, says we're looking at a wage-price spiral. Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group Managing Director, United States, discusses Trump's indictment over classified documents. Ian Shepherdson Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, is hopeful the Fed has done enough.
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Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Chief Global Strategist and Head of Asset Allocation, says we could reach 5,000 on the S&P if a soft landing is achieved. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, thinks the 5% higher yields are more punishment than reward. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, discusses Trump's indictment over secret documents. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, say oil and copper are a liability right now. Nadia Calviño, Spanish Vice President and Minister for Economy and Digitalization, says she hasn't spoken with Elon Musk about any plans for a new Tesla factory in Spain.
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Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, expects the Fed to skip next week, with a potential for more hikes to come. As money flows concentrate into mega cap companies, Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth Management Head of North America Investments, says this shows that the market is "rational." Edward Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, sees inflation reaching 3 to 4% by year end. Geoffrey Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Market Strategist, doesn't expect rate cuts from any major central banks until the second half of next year. Rep. John Garamendi, (D) California, discusses the PGA Tour-Liv merger.
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Despite cutting exposure to tech last year, Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, remains a long-term believer in the sector. Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, sees the Fed staying higher for longer. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics & Policy Director at Brown University, discusses Pence, Christie entering the '24 presidential race. Alberto Gallo, Andromeda Capital Management Co-Founder & CIO, says if we have a persistently hawkish central bank, and if the long end goes up, then the consequences for markets are pretty heavy. Clare Lombardelli, OECD Chief Economist, says the world faces slow growth, not recession.
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Emmanuel Roman, PIMCO CEO, says banks are going to be tight for capital. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity, Derivatives & Quant Strategist, says we're in a momentum market, raising his S&P target to 4,450. Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist, says we haven't seen the full effect of rates. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, discusses Apple announcing its Vision Pro headset.
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Anthony Capuano, Marriott International President & CEO, doesn't see the end of "YOLO" traveling happening anytime soon. Michael Gapen, BofA Securities US Economist, says good news is back to being bad news. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Sr. Fellow, discusses Saudi Arabia pledging to cut a million barrels a day in July. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst, says the 2024 elections will be a wildcard for markets.
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Randall Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Economics Professor & Fmr. Fed Governor, says unless the US gets an immaculate disinflation, he doesn't see the Fed cutting "anytime soon." Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund Portfolio Manager, says we are not really seeing a slowing in the labor market. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief North American Economist, discusses the May jobs report. Nadia Lovell, UBS Global Wealth Management Senior US Equity Strategist, says we're seeing a rolling recession in different sectors. Dan Clifton, Strategas Research Partner Partner and Head of Policy Research, discusses the US debt-limit deal clearing Congress.
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Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, Bloomberg Economics Senior Advisor & Former NY Fed President, says the Fed's usage of a "skip" versus a "pause" is to temper market expectations that they are "finished." Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Former US State Department Chief Economist, CFR Senior Fellow & International Capital Strategies Partner, discusses China's weak data. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says a mild recession would be a soft landing scenario. Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Senior Retail Analyst, discusses Macy's earnings.
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Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Head of Fixed Income, says he sees a recession by the end of the year and the Fed cutting rates by September. Rep. Bryan Steil, Republican from Wisconsin says the debt-limit bill is not perfect but its's a step in the right direction. Anglo Zino, Senior Equity Analyst at CFRA says he is a believer in Nvidia but he thinks there will be some AI fatigue. Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Managemenet Co-Chief Investment Strategist says she continues to favor investing in the US over the rest of the world. William Lee, The Milken Institute Chief Economist says China is snowballing into a static plateau.
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