Bloomberg Surveillance

This is a special episode of the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Jonathan Ferro sits down with global economist Mohamad El-Erian, former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and renowned scholar Michael Spence to discuss their new book, 'Permacrisis.'

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Katy Kaminski of Alpha Simplex sees equity markets disjointed from fixed income. Earl Davis of BMO Asset Management sees 2024 as a cyclical bull market. Holger Schmieding of Berenberg expects upside for Europe next year. Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair says more banks are going to fail.
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Christyan Malek, JP Morgan Securities Global Head of Energy Strategy, sees oil normalizing towards $100. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says the dollar strength is already near levels where it is becoming disruptive. Saira Malik, Nuveen CIO, says the soft landing narrative is being challenged. Janet Henry, HSBC Global Chief Economist, says this is an unusual cycle.
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A special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance, live from the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in London. Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz speak with James Zelter, co-president of Apollo Global Management.

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Former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard says the prospects for soft landing look good. Sree Kochugovindan, Abrdn Senior Research Economist reacts to the BOE rate decision. Edward Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research says there is no longer an oversupply of oil. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist discusses the FX market amid a busy week of central bank decisions. Daniel Levy, Tottenham Hotspur Chairman talks about the recent sale of star striker Harry Kane to Bayern Munich.

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Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. 

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Cathie Wood, ARK Invest CEO & CIO, discusses Ark acquiring Rize ETF. Patrick Armstrong, Plurimi Wealth Chief Investment Officer, doesn't see inflation falling to the Fed's 2% mandate. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says we can get to EUR-USD parity. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, says China is exporting deflation and goods prices to the rest of the world.
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Max Kettner of HSBS says tech still has room to run over the next few weeks. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President sees a higher chance of a US recession than he did before. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the euro will feel the impact of global crises more than the US dollar. Simon French, Panmure Gordon Chief Economist and Head of Research looks ahead to Thursday's BOE rate decision.
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Andrew Balls, PIMCO Global Head of Fixed Income says the U.S. 10-year looks attractive right now. Gilles Moec, AXA Group Chief Economist compares the European economy to the US. Geoff Yu,  BNY Mellon, Senior Market Strategist says there's a risk of a wage-price spiral. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments, Chief US Policy Strategist says, there is no logical successor in the Democratic party for President Biden. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Director of Research says oil will hit $100 a barrel by Halloween.

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Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods, Chief Market Strategist weighs in on what the UAW strike could mean for the share price of the big 3 automakers. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director weighs in on the UAW strike and says she does not think there will be another auto industry bailout. RJ Gallo, Federated Hermes Sr. Portfolio Manager says fixed income investors should extend duration over the next 12-24 months. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence US Media Analyst discusses the outlook for Disney after the company announced that it expects to fall tens of millions of subscribers short of its 2024 target for Disney+. Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist discusses rising oil prices around the world.

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Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. Bloomberg's monthly program, Chief Future Officer, profiles these leaders and explores the impact they're making on their companies and industries. This episode profiles JetBlue CFO Ursula Hurley, who's helped lead the airline through the turbulence of a global pandemic that's still presenting operational challenges and inflationary headwinds.

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Tom Porcelli, PGIM Fixed Income Chief US Economist, reacts to the US August CPI report. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst, says Apple stock is being held up by the iPhone and share buybacks. Regina Mayor, KPMG Global Head of Clients & Markets Rep, says demand destruction in oil would kick in if gas prices go substantially over $4. French Hill (R) Arkansas, discusses House Speaker McCarthy launching an impeachment probe into President Biden. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President talks about Apple, and why he thinks the stock is facing serious challenges.
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Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management CIO & Global Head of Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities says the Fed may have to tip the economy into recession before cutting rates. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist criticizes the Fed's proposal to increase capital requirements for the biggest banks. Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas, US Head Of Equity And Derivative Strategy explains why he ditched his call for an 11% drop in the S&P this year. Francisco Blanch, BofA Global Research Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research says he sees Brent Crude at $90 next year. Bhakti Hansoti, Johns Hopkins University Associate Professor of Emergency says Covid is similar to the flu.
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Bloomberg News Now is a comprehensive audio report on today's top stories. Listen for the latest news, whenever you want it, covering global business stories around the world.     

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Marvin Loh, State Street Senior Global Macro Strategist, says the risk of a recession in the US is still out there. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, says the data this week will guide the dots. Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, says the ongoing UAW disputes are a "rearview mirror" issue for the US economy. Paolo Gentiloni, European Commission Economy Commissioner, says Europe is near the peak of interest rates. Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence, previews Apple's product event on Tuesday.
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Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the Fed is stepping harder on the brakes. Earl Davis, BMO Asset Management Head of Fixed Income & Money Markets, doesn't expect any Fed hikes next year. Pierre Ferragu, New Street Research Head of Global Technology Infrastructure, says China has to be very careful with what they do with Apple because China depends on Apple for many things. Steven Major, HSBC Global Head Of Fixed Income Research, says yields will probably go sideways. Anna Ashton, Eurasia Group Director China Corporate Affairs and US-China, says the China slowdown is systemic.
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Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, suggests buying the AI dip. Stephanie Roth, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Senior Markets Economist, says it's been a pretty impressive cooling of the labor market over the course of this year. Michael Nathanson, SVB MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst, discusses the Disney, Charter Communications standoff. Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, says oil at $90 a barrel is "significant" as it pushes the whole commodity index higher. Daniel Tannebaum, Oliver Wyman Global Anti-Financial Crime Practice Leader, says the US is still calibrating how to respond to China.
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Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says the US is staring down the barrel of a sluggish economy. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, says the Fed's job is more complicated now. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners Co-Founder, says there is still room to run for oil. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says a Fed cut could cause a weaker dollar and potentially ease some China pressures. David Lebovitz, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, expects airlines to continue to raise prices to defend their margins.
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Neil Dutta, US Economic Research Head, Renaissance Macro Research says the Fed shouldn't signal rate cuts in 2024. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist sees higher yields for a little longer. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics & Policy Director at Brown University discusses the latest Wall Street Journal presidential poll.David Rubenstein, The Carlyle Group, Co-Founder & "Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein" Host talks about his interview with legendary investor Jeremey Grantham for "Bloomberg Wealth".

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Julie Su, US Acting Labor Secretary gives the Biden Administrations reaction to the August payrolls report. Following the jobs report, Randall Kroszner, Fmr. Fed Governor & University of Chicago Booth School Professor says we're seeing the kind of goldilocks scenario the Fed wants. Jeff Rosenberg, Blackrock Portfolio Manager of The Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund says the main message from the August jobs report is that the labor market is normalizing. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist says the August jobs data was what the Fed was looking for.

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Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist expects the Fed to pause in September. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist is sticking with his bullish forecast, expecting the S&P to finish the year at 4,900. Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer says there is no evidence that a recession is imminent. Bloomberg's Jan-Patrick Barnert discusses UBS's record breaking profit. Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing F1 Driver looks ahead to the Monza Grand Prix this weekend.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance 

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Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, says the 10-year treasury is a 'screaming buy.' Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist, still sees the US avoiding recession. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says China is clearly experiencing trouble. Margie Patel, Allspring Global Investments Senior Portfolio Manager, says there's no recession in sight because everything in the US is pretty well balanced.
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University of California at Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen presented a paper on ballooning government debt at this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. On this bonus content episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Joe and Tracy speak with Eichengreen about his research, why it's of importance to central bankers, and what history says about the prospects for fiscal consolidation.

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Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical & Macro Strategy, says it's hard to embrace the short dollar call. Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says the bar for a September rate hike is high. John Lovallo, UBS US Homebuilders & Building Products Equity Research Analyst, says the supply chains for most US homebuilders have gotten better but the biggest headwind is labor. Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Managing Director & Senior Portfolio Manager, expects a strong fourth quarter. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses the state of airline travel post-summer.
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In the global financial system, US Treasuries play a special role. So what can be done to improve the way Treasuries are bought and sold? In this episode of Odd Lots, Joe and Tracy speak with Stanford University finance professor Darrell Duffie, who just presented a paper about this very issue to central bankers at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.

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Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, says there's still quite a bit of fragmentation in the economy. Phil Orlando, Federated Hermes Chief Equity Market Strategist, expects one more quarter point hike from the Fed and than a potential pause that may "last a while." Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor-in-Chief, says nobody in the current GOP lineup is close to giving Trump "any kind of challenge." Anna Ashton, Eurasia Group Director of China Corporate Affairs and US-China, says US Commerce Secretary Raimondo's trip to China is "the most important visit we've had so far from a member of the administration."
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On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave his much-anticipated speech at the Kansas City Fed Monetary Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

While many were expecting some kind of academic or theoretical discussion, the text was straightforwardly about the current path of monetary policy. So what did we learn? What actually happens at Jackson Hole? And how did this year's event fit in with prior years?

On this bonus episode, Odd Lots turn to Bloomberg Surveillance co-host Tom Keene and Michael McKee, Bloomberg News International Economics and Policy Correspondent.

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European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says the central bank's data-dependency forces it to act meeting by meeting. She spoke with host Tom Keene on the sidelines of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

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Join Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz, live From the 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium with esteemed guests including Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College Cambridge, Tracy Alloway of Bloomberg Odd Lots, Patrick Harker of the Philadelphia Fed, Kristalina Georgieva of the IMF and Barry Eichengreen of UC Berkeley.
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Former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard says the biggest question right now is of reacceleration in the US economy. Michael Darda of Roth MKM says the probability of a recession happening in the US are high. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi Asset Strategist says market sentiment has turned bearish over the last two weeks.Diana Amoa of Kirkoswald Asset Management says growth outside the US is lackluster.
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Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities US Chief Economist, says there's a lot of idiosyncratic risk out there. Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says this is more likely a rally in a bear market. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, says Fed Chair Powell could "pat itself on the back" as the US sees lower inflation and a better economy but "I don't think it's time for him to do that." Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses the first GOP presidential debate tonight.
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 Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says a 6% 10-year yield is not crazy. Vincent Reinhart, Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Dreyfus and Mellon, says current yield levels are sustainable. Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Senior Retail Analyst, says we are seeing signs of a discretionary recession. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder, says fixed income returns are better than a year ago.
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Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, says this is not an end of a bull market run, this is just a correction. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says we are in the early stages of the distress cycle. William Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says China may need to install a social safety net for their economy. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics Policy Director at Brown University, says Gov. Ron DeSantis has the most to gain and the most to lose at the first GOP debate, as President Trump continues to lead in polls.
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Edward Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, says the Fed can't really afford to see bond yields keep going up. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says this is the time to be buying fixed income. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses air travel and says domestic fares are seeing declines. Steve Pagliuca, Bain Capital Senior Advisor & Atalanta Co-Chairman, says the recent Saudi investment in football may disrupt the premier league as players see pays rise.

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James Athey, Abrdn Investment Director, says credit spread are too tight. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, still expects a recession and for equities to come down. Susan Thornton, Yale University Law School Paul Tsai China Center Senior Fellow, says China needs households to start spending. Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Research Analyst and Assistant Director of Research, discusses Walmart lifting its profit outlook on a boost from US shoppers. 

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Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says it does feel like equities are topping out a little bit. Greg Peters, PGIM Fixed Income Co-CIO, thinks we're in this stronger growth environment but at the same time we will see above trend default and distress activity. Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, says he sees headwinds emerging for retail sales. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO & Chief Research Officer, discusses Target and TJX earnings.

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Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Investment Officer, says he's cautious on the markets and economy as cracks are beginning to develop. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, believes the ECB is done hiking. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, discusses US retail sales exceeding forecast. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, discusses Trump's indictment in Georgia. Drew Reading, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Home Depot earnings topping estimates.

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Former President Trump has been indicted for a fourth time. Here's everything you need to know about the new charges.  

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Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Head of US Large-Cap Bank Research says Goldman Sachs shares would probably go down if David Solomon were fired today. Sebastien Page, T. Rowe Price Chief Investment Officer and Head of Global Multi-Asset says the greatest risk right now is a selloff in stocks. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global head of FX Strategy says the FX market is in a tight range. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director weighs in on the likelihood that President Trump will participate in next weeks GOP debate.

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 Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, doesn't think the US is headed to a soft landing. Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, says the markets are enamored with Europe, China. Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Research Analyst and Assistant Director of Research, discusses upcoming retail earnings from Walmart and Target. Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says the House is behind the curve here.
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Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says the Fed hasn't done enough. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says inflation could get back down to 2% on its own.Jessica Reif Ehrlich, BofA Securities Senior Media & Entertainment Analyst, discusses Disney raising prices for its streaming services by as much as 27%. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director, discusses the race for the GOP presidential nomination.
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Mark Cabana, BofA Securities Head of US Rates Strategy says the Fed may have to keep rates higher for longer. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Chief Economist says the US economy is in a disinflationary trend. Victoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Market Strategist says it's a stock pickers market. Michael Nathanson, SVB MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst says Disney's parks are not for sale as CEO Bob Iger tries to turn the company around.
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Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Chief Global Strategist & Head of Asset Allocation, says we are due for a 3-5% pullback in the equity markets as outlined in his "Wobble" call. Meera Pandit, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says we are in an environment where stocks are "jogging in place." Rob Waldner, Invesco Chief Fixed income strategist & Head of Macro Research, there's a risk that the Fed overstays their welcome. Lee Klaskow, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses UPS earnings. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder & "Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein" Host, discusses his interview with Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital Founder & CEO.
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Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says the markets need to stop, pause and have a moment of digestion. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist & Chief Investment Officer and Morgan Stanley Global Investment Committee Chair, says be 'very selective' with stocks. Daniel Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, discusses why he's bullish on Apple despite weak earnings. Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute Chief Economist for North America, says the consumer and economy are shifting. Sri Natarajan, Bloomberg News, discusses Goldman Sachs commodities research chief Jeff Currie set to leave the bank.
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Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund says we are seeing normalization in the labor market. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President says we're in a rolling recovery, but the second half of the year could be challenging. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Senior Research Analyst, says Amazon's cost cuts could impact customers going forward. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy Director at Brown University says the Trump indictment emboldens his base.
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Sree Kochugovindan, Abrdn Senior Research Economist, discusses the BOE raising rates by 25 basis points. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, sees continued earnings resilience. Tom Porcelli, PGIM Fixed Income Chief US Economist, says he doesn't expect the US to suffer through a recession. Tom Wagner, Birmingham City FC Owner and Co-Chairman & Knighthead Capital Co-Founder, discusses his recent purchase of Birmingham City FC. Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence, previews Amazon and Apple earnings.
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Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, says he questions Fitch's US credit downgrade and its timing.Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income Chief Investment Strategist, says there has been an erosion in the US and its governance. Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Mgmt. CIO & Head of Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities, says the US is headed to recession near year-end. Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Global Markets Global Chief Economist, says we need to see some easing in services spending. Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Head of Derivatives Strategy, says the options market is "terrible" at pricing political and geopolitical events. 
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Bloomberg's Doug Krizner, Bryan Curtis, and Ed Baxter break down the latest federal charges against former President Donald Trump with Bloomberg Law host June Grasso and Political Contributor Jeanne Sheehan Zaino. 

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Elyse Ausenbaugh, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management Investment Strategist, says the Fed could be in a place to cut rates next year. Helane Becker, TD Cowen Senior Research Analyst, says this summer is all about Europe and next year will be all about Asia, as international travel picks up. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says his biggest headache right now is higher oil prices. Regina Mayor, KPMG Global Head of Energy, discusses rising oil and gas prices. Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel President & CEO, says housing prices have leveled off.
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