Bloomberg Surveillance

Tom Michaud, KBW CEO, says the banking crisis is behind us, "barring any other major shocks." Ed Al-Hussainy, Columbia Threadneedle Investments Senior Interest Rates Strategist, says the Fed will prioritize inflation. Geoffrey Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Market Strategist, says central banks will keep rates higher for longer. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy Director at Brown University, discusses the hearings on the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank. David Rubenstein, "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" Host and Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, says the banking system is in "reasonably good shape."  

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Brad Rogoff, Barclays Head of FICC Research, says Fed rate cuts can come in 2024, but expects one more hike this summer. Katrina Dudley, Franklin Mutual Series Portfolio Manager, is not in the camp of Fed rate cuts this year. Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, says we are "on the road to recovery" from the banking turmoil. Victoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Chief Market Strategist, doesn't expect rates to continue to fall. Stephen Engle, Bloomberg News, discusses Alibaba's plans to split its $220 billion empire into six units. 

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Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist & CIO, says risk for the equity market is elevated now more than it's been for the last six or twelve months. Lisa Hornby, Schroders Head of US Multi-Sector Fixed Income, doesn't think banks are out of the woods yet. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Bank Equity Strategy and Large Cap Bank Analyst, says banks are moving in the right direction. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says this banking crisis is not like a normal banking crisis. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President, says we need a new trade policy in the US. 

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 Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, doesn't anticipate the Fed cutting rates this year, even if there is a mild recession. Patrick Armstrong, Plurimi Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says the US is set to fall into a technical recession. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Research, discusses a potential TikTok ban. Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-Chief Investment Officer, says the market isn't "sleepwalking" through the recent banking turmoil.  

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Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says the markets may need to price in more cuts from the Fed. Alessio de Longis, Invesco Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of GTAA Solutions, says the Fed is looking at "marginal increases" going forward, whereas the ECB, BOE "have more to go." John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed's credibility is still on the line. Sen. Mark Warner, (D) Virginia, previews the TikTok hearing by the House of Representatives' Energy and Commerce Committee. 

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosts Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz wrap up Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference with insight from top market names.

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Former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, Richard Clarida and TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, Priya Misra discuss the latest on the Fed decision with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. 

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Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Head of Fixed income, says the Fed achieved the "maximum pressure" they need to bring down inflation. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Equities and Capital Markets Advisory, says Powell's credibility is still intact. Jonathan Pingle, UBS Chief Economist, expects the Fed to hike by 25 basis points at Wednesday's meeting. Betsy Duke, Former Wells Fargo Chair & Former Fed Governor, says Powell's credibility is his most important asset. David Malpass, World Bank President, says a global recession is not off the table.  

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Lindsay Rosner, PGIM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says she'd like to see the Fed pause. Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Goldman Sachs Managing Director for Portfolio Strategy, says the Fed and ECB are not done yet with their hiking cycles. Dean Maki, Point 72 Chief US Economist, says recent data doesn't show much slowing in the US. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow & Author "Saudi Inc.", says she is concerned with oil demand. Dan Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management Chief Strategist, says the Fed shouldn't raise rates Wednesday.  

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William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Fed President, recommends the Fed pause at Wednesday's meeting. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says European banks are looking "more and more attractive" despite market turmoil. Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, MRV Associates Managing Principal, says regional banks in the US are still sensitive to this crisis in confidence. Leon Cooperman, Omega Family Office Chairman & CEO, says the banking crisis is "self-induced." Michael Arougheti, Ares Management Corporation Co-Founder, CEO and President, says the Fed is doing everything supposed to in order to provide confidence.  

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UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets. Bloomberg Surveillance broke the news and got analysis from:

• Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist 
• Joost Beaumont, head of bank research at ABN Amro Bank 
• Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities 
• Bob Michele, chief investment officer of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management 
• Mark Naur, a strategist at Danske Bank 
• Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management chief global strategist 
• Greg Peters, PGIM Fixed Income co-chief investment officer 
• Steve Pagliuca, Bain Capital Private Equity senior advisor 

Hosted by Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz

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Thomas Hoenig, Former President of Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City & Former FDIC Vice Chairman, says policy-making needs some humility in the wake of the banking turmoil of the past week. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed has to pause in the wake of SVB. Gerard Cassidy, RBC, Head of US Bank Equity Strategy, expects to see more banking regulation ahead. Alvaro Santos Pereira, OECD Chief Economist, says inflation still remains the biggest problem for the global economy 

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Richard Clarida, Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, PIMCO Global Economic Adviser & Columbia University Professor, sees tighter supervision on banks. Dominic Konstam, Mizuho Americas Head of Macro Strategy, says it's "fairly intuitive that in the long run" Credit Suisse ends up merging with another bank. Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist, cites the "underlying fundamentals" as the reason why he still likes European banks. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says the biggest risk of a hard landing is if the Fed follows the market pricing of interest rates. 

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Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates CEO & Author of "Megathreats", says Credit Suisse "might be too big to fail, but also too big to be saved." Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says the ECB needs to put enough "firewalls" in place to help Credit Suisse. Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, says there might be counterparty risk for some of the US banks in regards to Credit Suisse. David Rubenstein, "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" Host and Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, says there is a lot of Middle East interest in Credit Suisse. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO, says the Fed, ECB need to continue on their tightening campaign. 

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 Ulrich Koerner, Credit Suisse CEO, said the bank had seen client inflows on Monday amid the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Magnus Billing, Alecta CEO, says its $2.1 billion bet on three niche US banks was “a big failure.” Ethan Harris, BofA Securities Head of Global Economic Research, says we are experiencing a "stress event" in an otherwise "strong" financial system. Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says the banking system is safe & sound. David George, Baird Senior Research Analyst, says SVB was "essentially a levered PE fund."  

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Tom Michaud, KBW CEO, says we need a government support mechanism to make things orderly following SVB's collapse.Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, says she wouldn't be surprised if we see another leg higher in yields if we start to price in more hikes. Michael J. Wolf, Activate Founder & CEO, says it was a "dark weekend" for startups and venture capital firms. Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, MRV Associates Managing Principal, says as soon as there is a problem with one bank, "fear is real." 

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Marty Walsh, US Labor Secretary, discusses the US February payrolls report. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Fed Governor, says the US labor market is still pretty hot. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says financial conditions aren't tightening enough. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Senior Equity Analyst, discusses US banks amid SVB turmoil. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Bank Equity Strategy, says "this is not an '08,'09 or even a 1990 moment."  

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Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, says the labor market is still very tight. Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, says we still need to be positioned for decelerating growth and weaker than expected earnings. Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Goldman Sachs Managing Director for Portfolio Strategy, says the global economy is accelerating. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Managing Partner & Director of Economic Research, discusses Biden's budget proposal. Bill Browder, Hermitage Capital Management CEO, Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign Head & Author of "Freezing Order," discusses the war in Ukraine. 

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Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says the focus on the Fed month-to-month can be distracting. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says "the risk of a hard landing does go up" if the Fed considers re-accelerating to 50 basis points. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Equities & Capital Markets Advisory, says Powell is sticking to the Volcker playbook. Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist, says it's important that Powell laid out how data dependent the Fed is. 

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Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist and CIO, sees as much as 20% downside for tech, meme stocks. Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, says the Fed does not want to cause alarm. Iain Stealey, JPMorgan Asset Management International CIO for Fixed Income, says the ECB still has an inflation problem. Lupin Rahman, PIMCO Head of EM Sovereign Credit & Portfolio Manager, says EM is extremely diversified right now.

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Christian Horner, Red Bull Racing F1 Team Principal, discusses Formula One's growth in the US and Red Bull's win at the opening race in Bahrain. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President, says the China reopening trade may be "overdone." David Lebovitz, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says any possible US downturn won't be as severe as the recession of 2008. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow and "Saudi Inc." Author, says we're headed towards a period of tightness in the oil market.

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Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short Term Portfolio Management, says cash is back, bonds are back. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says we could see a 6% Fed funds rate. Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, expects a steepening of the curve if the stock market "wins." Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, says Europe's economy is stronger than the US. 

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Padhraic Garvey, ING Financial Head of Global Debt & Rates, says the way the Fed is pursuing policy here is smart. Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Markets 360 Chief US Economist, sees persistent inflation everywhere. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Rates Strategy, says the Fed is committed to 2% inflation. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, discusses Tesla following investor day. 

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Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, says we still have more price increases to go, but this is not the spiraling inflation of the 70s. Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones Senior Investment Strategist, says the trade into more cyclical parts of the market "probably happened too fast, too soon" this year. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says it's tough to fade the ECB, euro right now. Devin Ryan, JMP Securities Senior Research Analyst, discusses Goldman Sachs following investor day.  

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Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says equity markets are not appreciating the macro challenges ahead. David Page, AXA Investment Managers Head of Macro Research, thinks we could see an asynchronistic recession. Saira Malik, Nuveen Chief Investment Officer, explains why she thinks emerging markets look attractive. Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, doesn't expect Goldman Sachs to be making any big acquisitions. 

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Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates Chairman, explains why he likes international value stocks. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says we are moving closer to stagflation. Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, thinks it is all about the Fed for the foreseeable future. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Public Policy Director, discusses the current state of US-China relationship. 

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Yuriy Sak, Advisor to Ukraine Defense Minister, says Ukraine is fighting a smarter war. Alina Polyakova, Center for European Policy Analysis President & CEO and Johns Hopkins School of advanced International Studies Professor, thinks the war in Ukraine could end this year. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, thinks the Fed is near the end of their rate hike cycle and that yields will eventually have to go lower. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi Asset Strategist, says US equities are in a tough spot. Mickey Levy, Berenberg Capital Markets Senior Economist and Visiting Scholar at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, says the Fed should hike 50 basis points at the next meeting. 

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Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, says it's remarkable that the Fed has tightened as much as they have and you don't see the labor market coming into better balance. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, sees a 30% chance of recession. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says the Fed needs to move the needle on employment. Leland Miller, China Beige Book International CEO, says there will be a cyclical bounce-back in China starting in 2Q. 

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Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI Chairman, says if he was on the Fed, he would pause. Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Market Strategist, says there's cash on the sidelines and "money has to be put at work." Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Co-Founder & Head of Research, says oil prices haven't factored in China's re-opening. Carlos Tavares, Stellantis CEO, discusses Formula 1 and the company's transition to electric vehicle production. 

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Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research, says Chinese and global oil consumption are approaching a peak as the energy transition away from fossil fuels gathers pace. Spencer Dale, BP Chief Economist, says the oil market remains very uncertain. Ben Laidler, eToro Global Market Strategist, says the rally has been fundamentally driven. Karen Short, Credit Suisse Analyst, reacts to earnings from Walmart and Home Depot. 

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Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist, says further data showing that strength in January was “not an anomaly” will increase pressure on the Fed to accelerate their pace.Wendy Schiller, Brown University Taubman Center for American Politics Policy Director, discusses recent developments as the Munich Security Conference begins. Helane Becker, Cowen Senior Research Analyst, examines the ways airlines reinvest in their businesses. Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CIO, says the market is ahead of itself. 

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Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute US Chief Economist, says the consumer has more purchasing power due to labor market strength and savings. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says market positioning can change on a dime. Russ Koesterich, Blackrock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager, says stocks can have a decent year ahead. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says a lot of tech names continue to move higher because of fundamentals and demand holding up.  

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Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, expects a recession in the US this year, but 'it's clearly not going to start in the first quarter.' Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO and Chief Research Officer, says discretionary sales have moderated. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President and Macro Strategist, says the 'no landing' scenario is growing. Stephen Schork, The Schork Group Principal, says there's potential for $100 a barrel oil.  

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Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, reacts to US January CPI data. Stephen Stanley, Santander US Capital Markets Chief US Economist, says the latest inflation print came in 'as expected' but 'could have been worse.' Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard Professor of Economics & Public Policy & Former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund, says we could see interest rates at 6%. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research Founder & President, says today's data gives the Fed a green light to go in March. 

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Steve Eisman, Neuberger Berman Eisman Group Senior Portfolio Manager, sees an oncoming market regime shift. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, sees the S&P 500 at 4,400 year-end, but there's a "chance that we may see that exceeded." Priya Misra, TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, says the markets are pretty well priced for the end point of the hiking cycle. Megan Greene, Kroll Institute Global Chief Economist, says the Fed will keep rates high this year. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President and Author of "The Power of Crisis," discusses US-China tensions as the US shoots down fourth object. 

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Stephen Pagliuca, Bain Capital Senior Advisor & Co-Owner of the Boston Celtics, sees the return of the golden age of credit. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, reacts to reports of a surprise nomination for Kazuo Ueda to take helm at the Bank of Japan. Gregory Staples, DWS Group Head Of Fixed Income North America, says January's strong rally may have gone a little bit too far. Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, warns of a tough environment for companies going forward. 

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Jim Zelter, Apollo Asset Management Co-President, says this is a 'golden era' for private credit. Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, expects the US to dodge recession. Luke Tilley, Wilmington Trust Chief Economist & Head of Asset Allocation and Former Philadelphia Fed Economic Adviser, says there's a 50/50 chance of a soft landing versus a mild recession. Kathryn Rooney Vera, Bulltick Capital Markets Head of Global Macro & Chief Investment Strategist, says US recession is not priced in the equity markets. 

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Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Bloomberg Economics Senior Advisor, says the Fed's game plan is to go to restrictive and keep it there for as long as it takes. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says we are a 'ways away' from 2% inflation. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO, says the US equity market is fighting the Fed. Michael Nathanson, SVB MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst, previews Disney earnings. 

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Darrell Cronk, Wells Fargo CIO of Wealth Management, thinks we are in a bear market rally. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets US Bank Equity Strategy Head, thinks we could have a revaluation of banks coming out of this slowdown. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director, says there is a lot of soul-searching going on for both Republicans and Democrats. Kristina Campmany, Invesco Global Debt Senior Portfolio Manager, says markets aren't listening to the Fed's hawkish narrative. 

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Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, thinks we are close to the end of the Fed's hiking cycle. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management CEO, doesn't expect the Nasdaq to hit a new high this year. Julie Norman, UCL Center on US Politics Co-Director, says China has been put on the backfoot because of the balloon incident. Sarah Hewin, Standard Chartered Head of Europe & Americas Research, thinks the recovery in China will be led by consumers. 

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Marty Walsh, US Secretary of Labor, reacts to the January payrolls report. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says consumers are telling us the labor market is fine. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says the hot labor market is still going to be an issue for the inflation outlook. Glenn Hubbard, Columbia's Jerome A. Chazen Institute for Global Business Director & Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, says the jobs report is 'certainly a worry for the Federal Reserve.' Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Rates Strategy, says the Fed is banking on a soft landing.  

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Holger Schmieding, Berenberg Chief Economist, says that Europe as a whole is not falling into a recession and is now outperforming expectations. Ebrahim Rahbari, Citigroup Chief Currency Strategist, says the ECB's next meeting in March will be "really interesting." Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says now is the time to stay invested. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy Founder & Author of "The Facebook Effect", discusses big tech earnings. 

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Jeff Rosenberg, Blackrock Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund portfolio manager, says 'there's a real disconnect' between what the Fed said and what the markets heard. Michael McKee, Bloomberg News International Economics and Policy Correspondent, looks at where the Fed goes from here. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US economist, says after the Fed decision, that they're still forecasting a recession.  

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Dominic Konstam, Mizuho Americas Head of Macro Strategy, says it's a soft landing "until it becomes a hard landing." Jerome Schneider, Managing Director and Head of Short Term Portfolio Mgmt, says the market is at an impasse with the Federal Reserve and where they're going. Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Goldman Sachs Managing Director for Portfolio Strategy, says the Fed is on track for a soft landing. Abby Joseph Cohen, Columbia Business School Professor & Retired Goldman Sachs Partner, sees a small increase from the Fed this year. 

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Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist, says the Fed will hike by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but "they are going to be done" after that. Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says the Fed is reiterating a message the markets have already gotten comfortable with. Leland Miller, China Beige Book International CEO, says despite China's manufacturing rebound, it won't help to drive growth. Paul Jacobson, General Motors CFO, discusses EV demand following the company's latest earnings results.  

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Steve Chiavarone, Federated Hermes Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, says this rally can go longer and higher than expected. Ken Tropin, Graham Capital CEO, says it's a good time to be conservative with your investments. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says markets have gotten too aggressive. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Senior Research Analyst, thinks we could see layoffs at Apple next. 

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Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist, sees a soft landing for the US and Europe. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, is seeing a strong demand for bonds. Ray Farris, Credit Suisse Chief Economist, says inflation could return if oil gets above $100 per barrel. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says he is worried about an American version of the Irish troubles. 

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Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says we are teetering towards a recession following US 4Q GDP. Philip Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management Portfolio Manager, says we're behind the pandemic highs with inflation. Vasileios Gkionakis, Citi Head of European FX Strategy, says the currency market has not fully priced in a 'relatively smooth' China reopening. Helane Becker, Cowen Senior Research Analyst, discusses airline earnings. 

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Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says he's not 'massively bullish' on equities just yet. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says we could get a 'slightly less dovish' Bank of Japan when Kuroda steps down as governor. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Chief Global Strategist & Head of Asset Allocation, sees the market going sideways in 2Q. William McDonough, Elements Funds Founder, CEO & Lead Portfolio Manager, discusses Tesla ahead of its earnings. 

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Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, says it's all about picking stocks in this market. Kallum Pickering, Berenberg Senior Economist, doesn't think we are headed into a severe recession. Steven Wieting, Citi Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Strategist & Chief Economist, thinks that corporate profits are about to take a hit. Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, says the copper rally is running ahead of itself. 

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