Bloomberg Surveillance

Iain Stealey, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Fixed Income CIO, says the market shouldn't be concerned about the US debt ceiling yet. Alifia Doriwala, RockCreek Group Managing Director, says China is still the biggest determinant in an EM portfolio. Ralph Acampora, Chartered Market Technicians Co-Founder, thinks we're making a long-term bottom in this bull market. Jeremy Stretch, CIBC Head of G-10 FX Strategy, explains why he thinks Europe might avoid a negative GDP print. 

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Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief US Equity Strategist & Head of Quantitative Research, thinks growth snaps back this year. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citibank Global Markets Chief US Economist, fears the Fed has not yet done enough. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Investment Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, thinks "higher for longer" could be the Fed's new "transitory." Anwiti Bahuguna, Columbia Threadneedle Head of Multi-Asset Strategy & Senior Portfolio Manager, explains why she is nervous about credit. 

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James Gorman, Morgan Stanley CEO, says his three potential successors are already in place. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, explains why he thinks the US should do away with the debt ceiling. Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas US Head of Equity and Derivative Strategy, is not looking for a v-shaped recovery. Alicia Levine, Bank of NY Mellon Head of Equities & Capital Markets Advisor, says the market hasn't priced in a soft landing. Jessica Reif Ehrlich, BofA Securities Media & Entertainment Analyst , says everybody is losing a lot of money in the streaming wars, with the exception of Netflix. 

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Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management CIO & Global Head of Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities, says we need a recession to cool things down and reset. Simon French, Panmure Gordon & Co Chief Economist, expects stubborn and sticky inflation. Veronica Clark, Citi Economist, says the market is misinterpreting the Fed's commitment to getting rates above 5%. Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, says China is the oil market's biggest uncertainty. 

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Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says we could see US GDP at 2% in 2023. Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Equity Strategy, says the S&P 500 can reach 4,200 this year. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, expects the dollar to end the year 'a little bit stronger." Mike Wirth, Chevron CEO, says China's re-opening could provide a boost to oil prices. 

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 Ken Leon, CFRA Equity Research Director, discusses major US banks reporting earnings. Lindsay Rosner, PGIM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says we had a 'black swan' style year with two major geopolitical events. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, discusses USD-JPY and the impact of Japan potentially reversing YCC. Katrina Dudley, Franklin Mutual Series Portfolio Manager, says we're seeing all the signs of a very mild recession.

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Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon Chief Economist, discusses the Fed's path following US inflation cooling. Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO, says we could see extremely high GDP growth in China next year. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist & Managing Director, says the Fed will keep hiking rates even though we will see inflation metrics coming down this year. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO & Chief Research Officer, talks retail in the wake of CPI. 

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Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, Chief Investment Strategist & Founder, says "stocks are back in a bull market." Saira Malik, Nuveen Chief Investment Officer, explains why she is worried about equity earnings. David Malpass, The World Bank President, explains the factors behind their 2023 forecast cut. Rep. French Hill (R) Arkansas, says Kevin McCarthy was the only choice for Speaker of the House. David Rubenstein, "Peer to Peer with David Rubenstein" Host & Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder, discusses his interview with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, talks challenges outlined in his latest, ‘Surprises for 2023’ note.  

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Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, says the team expects 6.2% GDP growth in China this year. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says that the drop in recession calls for Europe could continue over the next couple weeks. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says the Fed will raise rates higher. Olivier Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow & Author, "Fiscal Policy Under Low Interest Rates", says inflation is too high and we need to slow down the economy a bit. 

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Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, says the US still has a strong and robust labor market, but it is at risk of higher wage pressure.Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, explains why she favors small caps right now. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says it's not yet time to signal an "all clear" for bonds. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says it's a new world for euro-dollar. 

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Marty Walsh, US Labor Secretary, discusses the December jobs data. Randy Kroszner, Former Fed Governor & University of Chicago Booth School Economics Professor, says this is the immaculate disinflation report. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says we still have a strong labor market. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, discusses tech's downturn. 

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Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist, says he's looking for a soft-ish landing from the Fed. Russ Koesterich, BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager, says big tech is ridiculously profitable despite headwinds. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Senior Research Analyst, discusses Amazon's plan to cut more than 18,000 jobs. Wendy Schiller, Brown University Taubman Center for American Politics Policy Director, says the GOP appears to be in disarray after 20 Republicans voted against Kevin McCarthy's bid for House speaker.  

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Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist, says a "nasty earnings recession" could be coming. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says the euro can stay supported through January. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Director of Research, says China will need all energy products when it reopens. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses the House of Representatives failing to elect a speaker.

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Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group Founder & President, outlines Eurasia Group's top risks for 2023. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President, says if we have a recession, it will be a Fed-induced recession. Kevin Rudd, Former Australia Prime Minister, says China's covid u-turn raises questions. Carl Bildt, Former Prime Minster of Sweden, says Vladimir Putin is increasingly alone. Marietje Schaake, Former European Parliament Member, says control over technology is a political choice. 

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Erik Knutzen, Neuberger Berman Multi-Asset Class Chief Investment Officer, doesn't expect central banks to pivot in 2023. Matt Winkler, Editor-In-Chief Emeritus, debt investors are growing more confident in the Fed's ability to contain inflation. Lauren Sauer, University of Nebraska Medical Center Associate Professor and Special Pathogens Research Network Director, says our chance of going through another pandemic is quite high. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group Founder, CEO & Chief Research Officer, says retailers have made progress on reducing inventory levels. 

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Daleep Singh, PGIM Chief Global Economist, says we are probably in the most intense global power competition backdrop since World War II. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Chief Market Strategist, thinks a strong yen and lower inflation will take pressure off the Bank of Japan. Stephanie Aaronson, Brookings Institution Director of Economic Studies, discusses what the right tools are to measure the economy.Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, Chief Investment Strategist & Founder, says if there's going to be a recession, it's going to be soon. 

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Kathryn Rooney Vera, Bulltick Head of Research & Strategy, says she is still remaining defensive. Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder & Former Federal Reserve Economist, explains why she thinks the Fed should ban the Phillips curve. Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, says we're getting back to a more normal environment. Helane Becker, Cowen Senior Research Analyst, says Southwest needs to cut back its ambitions. 

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Matt Maley, Miller Tabak Chief Market Strategist, still remains bullish on the energy sector. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President, expects borrowing costs to drop next year. Dr. Bhakti Hansoti, Johns Hopkins Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, discusses immunity amid China's reopening and a surge in covid infections. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Policy Research Director, says he is optimistic congress will pass some crypto legislation next year. 

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 Bob Diamond, Atlas Merchant Capital Founding Partner and CEO, reflects on the life and legacy of Scott Minerd. Michael Gapen, Bank of America Securities Head of US Economics, says economic momentum seems to be slowing as the end of the year approaches. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President & Macro Strategist, says the Fed has won over the market in 2022. Persistent inflation is hard to see at this point. Brian Kelly, The Points Guy, discusses the challenges to travel this holiday season. 

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Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief US Equity Strategist and Head of Quantitative Research, says the markets backdrop is looking much more positive. Mark Cabana, Bank of America Global Head of US Short Rates Strategy, thinks fixed income will have increased value for investors over the next year or two. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy Research, says President Biden may announce his re-election run in January. Veronica Clark, Citi Global Markets Economist, says we need to see a loosening in the labor market before expecting inflation to significantly come down. 

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Christian Lindner, German Finance Minister, says German carmakers are competitive and mustn't fear Tesla. Greg Peters, PGIM Fixed Income Co-CIO, sees a shift into bonds in 2023. Erik Nelson, Wells Fargo Macro Strategist, says the shift from the Bank of Japan is a warning shot for carry traders. Aneesha Sherman, Bernstein Senior Analyst, says Nike's brand is stronger than ever. 

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Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, thinks the Bank of Japan will have to be more aggressive in 2023. Dominic Konstam, Mizuho Americas Head of Macro Strategy, says that Bank of Japan has now let the genie out of the bottle. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Investment Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says the Bank of Japan's policy was unsustainable. Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman Global Head of Currency Strategy, thinks it is clear the Bank of Japan is going to hike rates next year. 

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Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, explains why he isn't expecting a recession quite yet. Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Securities Head of US Equity & Quantitative Strategy, expects index funds to underperform active management. Matt Brill, Invesco Head of US Investment Grade & Senior Portfolio Manager, says a fixed income readjustment has taken place. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, thinks it is likely that Joe Biden runs for president again in 2024. 

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John Williams, New York Fed President, says that while inflation has showed some signs of slowing, a tight labor market and other factors are likely to keep price pressures elevated and warrant high interest rates for some time. Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, explains why markets have been "comfortably numb." Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, says concerns over a recession in the US are a little bit premature. Sam Stovall, CFRA Chief Investment Strategist, sees the market enduring a challenging first half, as the economy likely succumbs to the long anticipated, but mild, recession. 

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Jeremy Stretch, CIBC Head of G-10 FX Strategy, says the ECB faces greater potential policy problems compared to the Federal Reserve amid amplified core inflationary pressures. Jonathan Pingle, UBS Chief US Economist, says the ECB is a little bit behind the Fed. Ashok Bhatia, Neuberger Berman Fixed Income Deputy CIO, suggests we're entering a period where central banks are "divided" on tackling inflation. John Ryding, Brean Capital Chief Economic Advisor, says the BOE and ECB's main problem is that policy rates are "nowhere near restrictive."  

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Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, sees a soft recession coming. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the labor market needs to deteriorate more. Liz Young, SoFi Head of Investment Strategy, expects the Fed to hike 50 basis points at the December meeting. Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI Founder, Chairman and Head of Economic Research, discusses recession risk in '23. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, discusses the FTX hearing. 

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Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, discusses the US November CPI print and the Fed's path ahead. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, says he's hesitant about market sentiment, and that this recession "is the most anticipated...of our entire lifetimes." Rep. Bill Huizenga, (R) Michigan, says he sees “a lot of question marks” around the timing of Sam Bankman-Fried’s arrest. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Director of Research, says China will be one of the biggest drivers of oil in 2023. 

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Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says 2023 is opening the door for a recession. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says small caps are starting to outperform. Daragh Maher, HSBC Head of Research Americas & Head of US FX Strategy, says risk appetite has been at the core of everything that's happening in the FX market. Stephen Schork, The Schork Group Principal, says the oil narrative has shifted from supply to a demand. 

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Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Market Strategist, says there's reason to be slightly hopeful for 2023. Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute Chief US Economist, says its clear the Fed is not done hiking. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says the risk of recession is high. Ola Kaellenius, Mercedes-Benz Group CEO, says what happens in China matters for the auto industry. 

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David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth Chief Investment Officer & Global Head of Investments, says 2023 will be a tale of two halves. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Chief Economist, says we're not seeing a lot of loosening in the labor market. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, discusses Tesla delaying new hires in Shanghai. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow & 'SAUDI INC: The Arabian Kingdom’s Pursuit if Profit & Power' Author, discusses China's Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia.

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Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. This episode focuses on Royal Caribbean Group CFO Naftali Holtz, who moved into the job at the start of 2022 when former CFO Jason Liberty was promoted to CEO. Carol Massar speaks with Holtz and Liberty about the company's comeback from a total shutdown during the pandemic, and its plans to rebuild its business and its balance sheet.

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Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Global Research Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research, says the oil market is 'springy' because inventories remain quite low. Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, says the bond market is telling you that inflation is a thing of the past. Blerina Uruci, T.Rowe Price US Economist, says the Fed will need to continue hiking. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says the Republican party is very fractured in the House. 

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David Solomon, Goldman Sachs Chairman & CEO, says pay is set to fall as there are 'bumpy times ahead.' Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says the likelihood of a soft landing is low. Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Equity Derivatives Strategist, says this year comes down to positioning. Edward Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research, says it will be painful if oil hits $65. Brian Deese, National Economic Council Director, discusses Biden's trip to the TSMC plant in Arizona.  

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Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Markets 360 Chief US Economist, says the Fed will keep at it until the job is done. Rebecca Patterson, Bridgewater Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed is not likely to ease in '23. Stephen Roach, Yale Professor and Author of 'Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives', says it's important to stay focused on a potential wage price spiral. Gabriel Makhlouf, Ireland Central Bank Governor, says the euro area is likely to endure a technical recession.

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Marty Walsh, US Secretary of Labor, discusses the November jobs report. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Federal Reserve Governor, says the Fed has to keep at it until the labor market cracks. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, is watching wage data and a potential wage price spiral. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief US Economist, says the jobs report is giving mixed signals. 

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Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist, is confident this market rally will continue through December. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, sees GBP-USD at 1.25 next year. Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus Mellon Chief Economist, sees an economic downturn within the next 12 months. Rubeela Farooqi, High Frequency Economics Chief US Economist, says the Fed doesn't want to overtighten. Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Investment Officer, says the Fed has to pray this labor market quiets down.  

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Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of US Economics Research, says real economic growth is accelerating in the US. Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed won't be able to cut rates in 2023. Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones Senior Investment Strategist, says the Fed's path to a soft landing is narrow. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says the dollar has peaked. 

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Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Fed President, sees the Fed pausing rate hikes once they get to a 5.25-5.5% range and then holding for a longer period. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Equities & Capital Market Advisory, says the top of the market still has risk. Evan Brown, UBS Asset Management Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, says the US economy is still reasonably health despite the Fed's rate hikes. Vasileios Gkionakis, Citi Head of European FX Strategy, says the US dollar is at an inflection point. 

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Brian Weinstein, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Head of Global Fixed Income, says that, from an investment perspective, the protests in China are just another part of the broader story of economic turmoil. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says the bond market is pricing in a recession. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, says the future of oil in the US is very hazy. Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Senior Equity Analyst, says Apple is at the mercy of China's Covid Zero policy.

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Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Goldman Sachs Multi Asset Strategist, says China's path forward is going to be incredibly bumpy. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist, expects the dollar to see a "series of jagged peaks" and be "significantly weaker by the end of next year." Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder & Former Federal Reserve Economist, still thinks the US could skirt a recession. Joe Feldman, Telsey Senior Research Analyst & Assistant Director of Research, says we may have seen the end of the in-person early morning Black Friday rush. 

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 Alan Blinder, Princeton University Professor of Economics & "A Monetary & Fiscal History of the United States, 1961-2021" author, expects to see more separation between the Fed and the Treasury in time. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, says he will be bullish on oil come next spring. Troy Gayeski, FS Investment Solutions Chief Market Strategist & Managing Director, thinks Bitcoin will be around for the long haul, but says it will remain very volatile. Jennifer McKeown, Capital Economics Chief Global Economist, expects recessions in the UK and the Eurozone. 

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Alvaro Pereira, OECD Acting Chief Economist, predicts global growth will slow to 2.2% in 2023. Dana Peterson, Conference Board Chief Economist, says the economy will be flat in 2023. Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO says it's hard to see a turn in the dollar if we still have problematic growth in China. Stephen Schork, The Schork Group Principal, says there's a risk of diesel shortages. 

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Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, sees Bitcoin below $10,000. Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says we are at an inflection point. David Riley, BlueBay Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, says we are close to peak inflation. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says his long-term worry is not Russia, but China. 

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Jean-Yves Fillion, BNP Paribas USA CEO, says the US economy is the most resilient in the world. David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth Chief Investment Officer & Global Head of Investments, says the Fed may raise rates too high and keep it there for too long. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Director of Research, says there is confusion in the oil market. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, talks about the curve inversion and other catalysts that are forming his core market view. 

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John Ryding, Brean Capital Chief Economic Advisor, says central banks have made inflation worse. Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, says there's more curve inversion to be realized. Nick Bennenbroek, Wells Fargo International Economist, says Europe is already in a recession. Beata Kirr, Bernstein Private Wealth Management Co-Head of Investment Strategies, says the market is trying to find its footing. 

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 Admiral James Stavridis, Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, says the rocket hit in Poland was a wake-up call about the war. Elliot Ackerman, Former White House Fellow, US Marine Corps Veteran and Co-Author of '2034: A Novel Of The Next World,' says wars are escalatory by nature. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO & Chief Research Officer, says to expect a "challenged" holiday retail season. Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Equity Derivatives Strategist, says bitcoin is just another risk asset. 

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Gilles Moec, AXA Investment Managers Chief Economist, says Europe is sliding into a recession. Linda Duessel, Federated Hermes Senior Equity Strategist, says not to chase this rally. Rep. Andy Barr, Republican from Kentucky, says the GOP needs to do some soul searching. Mike Pyle, Deputy National Security Advisor, says President Biden's vision was essential to getting the G-20 communique over the finish line. 

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Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says easing rates won't be enough to revive big tech. Diane Swonk, KPMG, Chief Economist, says inflation looks like it's peaking. Priya Misra, TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, says inflation is less about the peak and more about the rate of decline. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, expects markets to stay volatile for a bit longer. 

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Torsten Slok, Apollo Management Chief Economist, says the Fed might actually be able to achieve a soft landing. Ben Laidler, eToro Global Markets Strategist, says the market bottom is now in. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says it's a really interesting moment for the euro. Tina Fordham, Fordham Global Foresight Founder & Geopolitical Strategist, says the US republic, as we know it, faces some serious pressures. 

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Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Securities Chief US Economist, says there's evidence we are moving away from peak inflation. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says it's a mistake to stay all in cash. Michael Regan, EPA Administrator, says there's an opportunity to deploy technology to reduce methane. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, says it's not too soon to call Ron DeSantis the new leader of the Republican party.

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