Bloomberg Surveillance

David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says it's time to get invested. Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Chief Currency Strategist, says we've seen a shift in dollar sentiment. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says Biden's decision to run for a second term depends on Trump's. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says the descent from high inflation is going to be far from gradual. 

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Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, says the inflation spike of the past year and a half is not primarily a central bank or political phenomenon. Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says the Republican Party is ready to take the lead on inflation. Rep. Peter Welch, (D) Vermont, says we need to make clean energy affordable. Alifia Doriwala, RockCreek Group, expects the midterm elections just to be a small blip for markets. Dan Yergin, S&P Global Vice Chairman, Author of “The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations," says gasoline prices have a real impact on how people vote. 

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Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, discusses outlook and market implications if the US midterms yield a divided government. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics & Policy Director at Brown University, says Democrats have more to do on messaging to voters. Daniel Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Research Analyst, says Apple is facing a supply issue, not a demand issue. Nela Richardson, ADP Research Institute Co-Head & Chief Economist, expects inflation to be more persistent. 

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Marty Walsh, US Secretary of Labor, discusses the October jobs report. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief US Economist, weighs the Federal Reserve's next move. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Federal Reserve Governor, says the Fed is looking for cracks in the labor market. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says today's jobs report is a challenge for the Fed and the market.  

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Dominic Konstam, Mizuho Americans Head of Macro Strategy, says the Federal Reserve must be cautious. Winnie Cisar, CreditSights Global Head of Credit Strategy, says investment-grade debt at historic high-yield levels has the "flex" to hedge against the risk of a US economic downturn. Geoffrey Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Strategist, examines the key differences between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Dean Maki, Point72 Chief US Economist, sees more momentum in the US than in Europe and the UK. 

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Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. This episode focuses on Duke Energy CFO Brian Savoy, who tells Alix Steel how the company plans to invest $145B over the next decade to transform its energy generation portfolio.

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Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist, say it's too premature for markets to be pricing peak interest rates. Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodities Research, says the return of demand from China won't push the price of crude oil above $100. Michael Gapen, Bank of America Chief US Economist, says the Federal Reserve is not in the business of shutting down markets. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, discusses his interview with US Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy on "Peer-to-Peer Conversations." 

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Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Equity Derivatives & Quantitative Strategist, thinks the Fed is about to downshift. Amos Hochstein, Special Presidential Coordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security, says the US still maintains ties with Saudi Arabia despite the “significant disagreement” over the OPEC+ decision to cut oil output. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says central banks would love to see a reversal in dollar strength. Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, says the Fed is eager for a downshift. 

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 Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief Us Economist, says he wouldn't be surprised if the Fed's policy rate ends up above 5%. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Head of Research, says we could see $100 oil by the end of the year. Lisa Hornby, Schroders Head of US Multi-Sector Fixed Income, says people are excited about fixed income again. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, predicts gridlock in Washington following the midterm elections. 

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Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says nobody knows what the market is or should do going forward given the complexity of the new macro environment. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Chief US Equity Strategist, discusses the US dollar’s impact on earnings and why he thinks there will be fewer buybacks next year. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says the market is consistently underestimating the level of inflation. Steve Case, AOL Co-Founder, discusses his new book “The Rise of the Rest” and his outlook for the tech sector. 

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Nathan Sheets, Citi Global Chief Economist, says the global economy is looking soft. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist & Managing Director, says prices are starting to recede in some areas of the economy. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, says Democrats are in trouble for the upcoming midterm election. 

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Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist, says the bear market will probably be over sometime in the first quarter of 2023. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of US Economics Research, says the Fed is failing miserably if they are viewing the labor market as the conduit to achieve their inflation objectives. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says we may have to wait for Powell’s press conference next week to confirm or reject the Fed-pause narrative. 

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Nouriel Roubini, Roubini MacroAssociates CEO & 'Megathreats' Author, discusses the "megathreats" facing the US economy. Jean Boivin, Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, says it's very hard to see something that's a smooth landing in any way. Mary Barra, General Motors CEO, discusses third-quarter results, efforts to address supply-chain issues and electric-vehicle expansion plans. Jordan Rochester, Nomura International G-10 FX Strategist, says the UK is the canary in the coal mine for everybody around the world. 

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Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says a slowdown is coming. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says markets haven't yest priced in recession. Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical & Macro Strategy, says the market is back in charge. Peter Trubowitz, LSE Professor of International Relations & Chatham House Associate Fellow, says China's President Xi is consolidating his hold on power and pushing China's ambitions in the region. 

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Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says real yields are back. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Equities & Capital Market Advisory, says the Fed has trapped itself. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Chief Market Strategist, says inflation is close to a peak 

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Michael Purves, Tallback Capital Advisors CEO & Founder; Nicholas Bennenbroek, Wells Fargo International Economist; and Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Chief Economist, react to the resignation of UK Prime Minister Liz Truss. 

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Brian Deese, National Economic Council Director, says all options are on the table when it comes to a potential ban on diesel exports. Scott Kirby, United Airlines CEO, says business class demand will continue to increase. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor In Chief, says the US economy is the number one issue for voters right now. Dennis Gartman, Chairman of the University of Akron's Endowment Fund & Retired Editor of The Gartman Letter, says 2022 is only going to get uglier. Anwiti Bahuguna, Columbia Threadneedle Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, is seeing no signs of peak inflation. 

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Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth Management Head of North America Investments, says the earnings bar has been revised down. Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Managing Director & Head of Short Term Portfolio Management, says "short-term paper is the place to hide" right now. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist, says sterling needs volatility to go away. Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner & Senior Research Analyst, says Netflix's new advertising tier could prove to be a very diluted strategy in the short-term. 

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Oliver Bäte, Allianz CEO, says investors are underestimating liquidity traps. Bob Miller, BlackRock Head of Americas Fundamental Fixed Income, says returns are "starting to look reasonable" for investors in high-quality assets. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets US Equity Strategy Head, says defensives are at peak valuation. Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Global Head of FX Analysis, expects even further dollar upside from here. Leland Miller, China Beige Book International Co-Founder & CEO, says China President Xi Jinping is unlikely to change his strategy. 

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Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says nations are in for a “rocky ride” as they adjust to dollar strength. Raghuram Rajan, Former Central Bank of India Governor, says larger emerging market countries have become more prepared for a crisis by building up their FX reserves. Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, says a Fed pivot is not in the cards right now. Eric Freedman, US Bank Asset Management Chief Investment Officer, thinks it makes sense to dip into the front end of the treasury curve. 

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Brian Deese, National Economic Council Director, says we need to make progress on rising food prices. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, says inflation is still the IMF's top worry. Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist, reacts to the US CPI report. David Malpass, World Bank President, says cutting the debt of poor nations is under discussion. 

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Tim Adams, Institute of International Finance President and CEO, says central bankers are facing their toughest job yet. Axel Weber, Institute of International Finance Chairman, says the ECB is in a worse position than the Fed. Klaas Knot, European Central Bank Governing Council Member, says a “continued effort” is needed to bring inflation under control. Kristin Johnson, CFTC Commissioner, discusses who they are working with the SEC on cryptocurrency regulation. 

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Governor Ned Lamont, (D) Connecticut, says Connecticut is prepared for an economic downturn. Jim Zelter, Apollo Global Co-President, says high-yield nearing 10% is "attractive." Nadia Calvino, Spain Deputy Prime Minister, stresses the importance of monetary and fiscal policy coordination. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says the Fed has a communication issue. 

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Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Fed owes the world a mea culpa. Seema Shah,  Principal Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says there is worse to come for the market. Gilles Moec, AXA Investment Managers Chief Economist, says recession is absolutely unavoidable at this stage. Bob Yawger, Mizuho Energy Futures Strategist, says we will probably see oil trading near $100. 

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Marty Walsh, US Secretary of Labor, discusses the September employment report. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief US Economist, weighs the Federal Reserve's next move. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Federal Reserve Governor, says this jobs report keeps the Fed on track for a 75-basis-point hike at the next meetings. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says the Fed is sending mixed messages. 

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Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, sees "huge opportunities" in fixed income. Stephen Schork, The Schork Group President, says the world is heading into the winter with a thimble of oil. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, reacts to US jobless claims. Bipan Rai, CIBC Capital Markets NA Head of FX Strategy, expects rates to remain higher for longer. 

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Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. Bloomberg's monthly program, Chief Future Officer, profiles these leaders and explores the impact they're making on their companies and industries. In this episode, Deutsche Post DHL Group CFO Melanie Kreis tells Tom Mackenzie how the the logistics giant has built capital and diversified its portfolio while accelerating growth during the Covid pandemic.

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Michael Gapen, Bank of America Chief US Economist, says the payroll number is the only one that matters in November. Christyan Malek, JPMorgan Global Head of Energy Strategy, says we are seeing a repricing of oil away from the control of OPEC. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director General, says the global outlook is "looking quite grim." Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist, Portfolio Manager & Member of the Firm's Investment Committee, says bonds look attractive amidst a "Volckeresque" Fed. 

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Ben Laidler, eToro Global Markets Strategist, says we're almost certainly going into a recession. Jordan Rochester, Nomura International G-10 FX Strategist, expects the euro to weaken further below parity with the US dollar by the end of this year. Freya Beamish, TS Lombard Chief Economist, says China is probably coming out of its recession, but is still very weak. Paul Sankey, Sankey Research Founder and Lead Analyst, says a production cut by OPEC+ will effectively serve to raise oil prices. 

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Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic Research calls it “appropriate” for the Federal Reserve to target a softening of the US labor market. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says it's time to pivot to small caps. Nadia Calvino, Spanish Economy Minister, says the Spanish economy continues to grow quite strongly. Chloe Smith, UK Secretary of State Work and Pensions, says the UK government is in talks with the Pensions Regulator. Dan Skelly, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Head of Market Research and Strategy, says he is watching earnings, PMIs, and jobs data to decide when to increase equity exposure again. 

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Andrew Griffith, UK Financial Secretary to the Treasury and City Minister, says the UK Government, the OBR and the Bank of England are all working in a coordinated fashion. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the pound still remains very vulnerable. Regina Mayor, KPMG Global Head of Energy, is optimistic about the European energy picture in in the near term. Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group Chief Investment Strategist, says thinks the Fed is close to a blink on policy. 

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Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs, Global Head of Commodities Research, says oil markets are caught in a vicious negative feedback loop. Michael Spence, Nobel laureate & General Atlantic Senior Adviser, says the global economy has shifted and become supply constrained. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist & Managing Director, says the Bank of England has no choice but to hike. Ray Farris, Credit Suisse Chief Economist, says the worst is yet to come for equities.

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Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Professor of Economics and Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, says UK markets are now in chaos. Katrina Dudley, Franklin Mutual Series Portfolio Manager, says the Bank of England's purchase of long-dated UK government bonds is a "quantitative conundrum." Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says the BOE's move places even more pressure on them at the front end of the curve. Saira Malik, Nuveen Chief Investment Officer, says that as long as the dollar and yields continue to move upward, investors need to brace themselves for more pain. 

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Bob Diamond, Atlas Merchant Capital Founding Partner & CEO, says the British government needs to restore its credibility with debt investors if it hopes to push ahead with its plans for the economy. Mark Mobius, Mobius Capital Partners Co-Founder, says the Fed is going to keep raising rates until the rate is above inflation, regardless of market reaction. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President, says the Fed is finally getting its arms around making Fed policy tight. Michael O'Leary, Ryanair CEO, says the company is reasonably insulated from pound volatility. Victoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Market Strategist, says we are getting closer to a market bottom. 

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Russ Koesterich, BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager, remains cautious on risk and underweight stocks. Kallum Pickering, Berenberg Senior Economist, says it's hard to label UK market moves as panic. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says the pound will continue its slide against the US dollar without intervention from the Bank of England and a shift in UK fiscal policy. Steven Wieting, Citi Global Wealth Chief Investment Strategist & Chief Economist, discusses the outlook for US corporate earnings, employment, and Federal Reserve policy. 

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Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, says uncertainty in the markets is approaching critical levels. Steven Englander, Standard Chartered Bank Global Head of G10 FX Research, discusses outlook for the pound as Liz Truss’s new UK government delivers the most sweeping tax cuts since 1972. Dan Suzuki, Richard Bernstein Advisors Deputy Chief Investment Officer, explains why markets are in the midst of several major turning points. Janice Eberly, Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management Senior Associate Dean & Professor of Finance, says the Fed's initial announcement of the 75 basis-point hike wasn't the surprise, it was the surrounding messaging. 

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Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Policy Committee Member, warns of an economic disaster ahead. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, assesses the recent carnage in the markets. Abby Joseph Cohen, Columbia Business School Professor & Retired Goldman Sachs Partner, sees more credit market damage ahead. National Bank of Ukraine Deputy Governor Serhiy Nikolaychuk discusses signs of recovery in Kyiv, the challenge to maintain a focus on monetary policy amid war with Russia, and the need for further funding from the International Monetary Fund.  

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Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist, says he is much more focused more on the earnings story than the Fed. Michael Pond, Barclays Head of Global Inflation Market Strategy, says to prepare for a hawkish Fed. Michael Collins, PGIM Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Manager, still expects a little bit more downside in credit. Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, says we currently have an energy supply and demand mismatch.

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Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says it's unsustainable to have the Fed hiking rates at a very rapid rate with the economy slowing. Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical & Macro Strategy, thinks yields are going to remain stickier and higher than consensus. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Equities & Capital Market Advisory, expects to see an equity market bump coming out of the US midterm elections. Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel President & CEO, says we are absolutely underestimating the demand in the housing market. 

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David Stubbs, JPMorgan Private Bank Global Head of Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy, says there are plenty of ways to meet your financial goals without taking equity risk. Dana Peterson, Conference Board Chief Economist, doesn't expect to see 2% inflation until 2024. Matt Brill, Invesco Head of North America Investment Grade, says it's an attractive time to buy bonds. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Macro Strategy Head, says Fed Chair Powell needs to let his inner dove out. 

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Andrew Sheets Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist, says we are into the thick of what we think is going to be a disappointing earnings revision lower. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says she can't dismiss the possibility of parity between the British pound and the US dollar. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale US Rates Strategy Head, says all assets are very correlated right now. José Antonio Ocampo, Colombia Finance Minister, discusses the impact of inflation on his nation's economy, plans to raise capital, and growth in tourism. Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist, says to expect earnings to be lower across the board if the economy is going to slow down enough to get inflationary pressures under control. 

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 Senator Pat Toomey, a Pennsylvania Republican and Ranking Member of the Senate Banking Committee, reacts to US railroads and union negotiators reaching a tentative deal to avert a labor disruption and says Congress should step in on cryptocurrency regulation. Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, weighs cheaper valuations against worries that persistently high inflation would cause central banks to remain hawkish for longer. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Professor of Economics & Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member, discusses the health of the UK economy. Kathy Bostjancic, Oxford Economics Chief US Economist, discusses outlook for US labor market and the Federal Reserve’s next move. 

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Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. Bloomberg's monthly program, Chief Future Officer, profiles these leaders and explores the impact they're making on their companies and industries. This episode, hosted by Matt Miller, focuses on Shake Shack CFO Katie Fogertey. Fogertey was Goldman Sachs' lead analyst covering the restaurant sector before leaving Wall Street in 2021 to join the fast casual dining chain -- and she's helping lead the company through a period of rapid change.

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Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says Europe is heading for a recession this year and one is likely in the US next year as well. Governor Glenn Youngkin, (R) Virginia, says bad policies are leading to persistent inflation. Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute Chief US Economist, says the US consumer is still healthy. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, discusses his new book "How to Invest: Masters on the Craft." 

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Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says today's inflation report removes all doubt about the Fed hiking 75 basis points at their next meeting. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, thinks markets are overreacting to the US inflation report. Esty Dwek, Flowbank CIO, still expects the disinflation trend to continue. Regina Mayor, KPMG Global Head of Energy, says we are out of the woods on high gas prices. 

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Bob Miller, BlackRock Head of Americas Fundamental Fixed Income, explains why he thinks yields are now reasonable. Kathryn Kaminski, Alphasimplex Group Chief Research Strategist, says she is less optimistic than the markets. Ben Hodges, Former Commanding General US Army Europe and CEPA Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies, says sanctions against Russia really are having a strong effect. Gilles Moec, AXA Investment Managers Chief Economist, says it's going to be difficult for European government to continue to accommodate the shock from rising energy prices with rising interest rates. 

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John Micklethwait, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief, reflects on the legacy of Queen Elizabeth II. Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Queens' College Cambridge President, discusses the impact of Queen Elizabeth II on Queens' College Cambridge. Robin Niblett, Chatham House Director, expects Charles III's reign over the Commonwealth to be a lot more difficult. Sir Vince Cable, London School of Economics & Political Science Visiting Professor, predicts what changes will come with the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, says the volatility in bonds is creating opportunity. 

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George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank Global Head of FX Research, says the dollar is ending up as the safe haven of choice by default. Margie Patel, Allspring Global Investments Senior Portfolio Manager, sees no "dynamic rebound" for stocks. Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Markets Commodities Research Head, expects Russia to run out of markets for its natural gas soon. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says western nations are going to have to have a major conversation about their trading policies with China. 

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Ben Laidler, eToro Global Markets Strategist, says this market is talking itself into a funk. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, says the US economy is faring better than the rest of the world and the Fed has more work to do. Sebastian Mallaby, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for International Economics, discusses outlook for the pound as Liz Truss becomes UK Prime Minister. Victoria Greene, G Squared Private Wealth CIO, says panic is one of the biggest risks to investors right now. 

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Marty Walsh, US Secretary of Labor, expects payrolls to keep rising despite Fed rate increases. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Fed Governor, says the labor force participation rate is consistent with where the Fed wants to go. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says today's jobs report is a bit of a sigh of relief for equity markets. Michael Purves, Tallbacken Founder & CEO, discusses whether he expects the corporate earnings machine to continue to perform. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief U.S. Economist, describes why the prime age participation rate is coming more into focus. 

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