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Bloomberg Surveillance

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Listen for the latest in finance, economics and investment. Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern bring you interviews from Bloomberg Surveillance Television. Join Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney for the best conversations from Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.  Watch Surveillance TV LIVE each mornings: http://bit.ly/3P7nstQ. Watch Surveillance Radio LIVE weekday mornings: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Episodes

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Published 2022-06-27

Surveillance: Market Timing with Bitterly (Podcast)

19 min Transcript
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Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth Management Head of North America Investments, explains she is advocating against market timing. Lisa Hornby, Schroders Head of US Multi-Sector Fixed Income, recommends a decent amount of liquidity in your portfolio. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor In Chief, says the US is the most politically divided its been since the start of Gallup's measurements. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says investors are looking more optimistically into 2023. 

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Published 2022-06-24

Surveillance: Recession Chances with Hatzius (Podcast)

30 min Transcript
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Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist, says a US recession is likely to be shallow if it happens. Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, says all inflation is the same for the Fed at the moment. Tina Fordham, Fordham Global Foresight Geopolitical Strategist & Founder, discusses the tensions governments are facing over inflation and wages. Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Global Head of FX Strategy, says we're seeing the end of central banks using balance sheets to manipulate FX rates. 

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Published 2022-06-23

Surveillance: Gas Prices with Hochstein (Podcast)

32 min Transcript
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Amos Hochstein, Presidential Coordinator for Energy Security, says the US may be able to bring back old refineries to relieve pressure at the pump. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda says Russia is acting disproportionately over the situation in Kaliningrad. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Chief Oil Analyst, says there is quite a lot of upside to oil demand. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, discusses concerns about the labor market. 

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Published 2022-06-22

Surveillance: Recession Risk with Dudley (Podcast)

39 min Transcript
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Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion, Bloomberg Economics Senior Adviser & Former New York Fed President, expects not deep recession in the US. Abby Joseph Cohen, Columbia Business School Professor & Retired Goldman Sachs Partner, says market valuations matter again. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, says sell-side analysts have stopped doing work since the era of Reg FD. Tim Gould, IEA Chief Energy Economist, says we haven't been putting enough capital into the energy sector in recent years. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says stocks are no longer priced to perfection and speculation and froth have been rooted out of the market. 

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Published 2022-06-21

Surveillance: Unresolved Issues with Musk (Podcast)

22 min Transcript
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks to Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait about Twitter, Tesla, the economy and politics. Pooja Sriram, Barclays US Economist, says they are seeing signs of a consumer pullback. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, says a US recession would be short and shallow if it happens at all. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners, says $6 a gallon of gas is not unreasonable. 

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Published 2022-06-17

Surveillance: BOE Rate Hikes with Davies (Podcast)

28 min Transcript
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Sir Howard Davies, NatWest Group Chairman and Author of 'The Chancellors,' says the Bank of England needs a higher rate to give credibility to medium-term inflation outlook. Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Securities Chief US Equity Strategist, says markets are oversold. Heather Boushey, Council of Economic Advisers Member, says all energy options are currently on the table. Stephen Schork, The Schork Group Co-Founder and Principal, says there is more pain at the pump to come.

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Published 2022-06-16

Surveillance: Recession Risk with Berro (Podcast)

24 min Transcript
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 Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says the risk of a recession is rising. Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist, expects the Bank of Japan to stay patient for longer. Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says it is too early to get aggressive in markets. Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says inflation is the top concern among constituents. 

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Published 2022-06-15

Surveillance: Central Bank Credibility (Podcast)

22 min Transcript
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Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says central banks need to reclaim some credibility and calm the markets. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Chief Global Strategist & Asset Allocation Head, explains why they expect a recession at the end of next year. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says we may see Bitcoin reach $10,000. Dom Konstam, Mizuho Americas Head of Macro Strategy, expects a very hawkish Fed. 

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Published 2022-06-14

Surveillance: Fighting Inflation with Weinberg (Podcast)

27 min Transcript
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 Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, says Jerome Powell needs to continue convincing people that the Fed will do whatever it takes to fight inflation. Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says Bitcoin needs to recover more before considering it to be in a new trend. Linda Duessel, Federated Hermes Senior Equity Strategist, says now is not the time to buy. Mark McCormick, TD Securities Global Head of FX Strategy, says Bank of Japan policy itself is broken. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman and Host of "Bloomberg Wealth," discusses his interview with Khosla Ventures Founder Vinod Khosla. 

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Published 2022-06-13

Surveillance: Global Market Selloff (Podcast)

33 min Transcript
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Lori Calvasina, RBC CApital Markets US Equity Strategy Head, says we are back at a crossroads for markets. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says the US consumer is losing purchasing power. Steven Wieting, Citigroup Private Bank Chief Economist & Chief Investment Strategist, expects 2023 to be a year of decline for EPS. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, says his base case is still for no US recession. Darwei Kung, DWS Portfolio Manager and Head of Commodities, anticipates oil demand will come down. 

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Published 2022-06-10

Surveillance: Red-Hot Inflation (Podcast)

24 min Transcript
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 Michael Darda, MKM Holdings Chief Economist & Market Strategist, says it is wrong to assume that inflation problems would go away with with lower crude prices. David Herro, Harris Associates Chief Investment Officer for International Equities & Portfolio Manager, says Credit Suisse should be given a chance to turn things around. Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Securities Chief US Equity Strategist, says the level of concern in the market is much higher than the underlying backdrop. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, says we've got a recipe for oil prices to keep rising. 

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Published 2022-06-09

Surveillance: Bear Case with Emanuel (Podcast)

21 min Transcript
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Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity and Quantitative Strategist, outlines the conditions necessary for his bear case of the S&P 500 falling to 2,900. Nick Bennenbroek, Wells Fargo International Economist, reacts to the ECB decision. Patrick Armstrong, Plurimi Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says to invest in growth in regions outside of Europe. Seema Shah, Principal Global Investors Chief Strategist, thinks we could see a bear market rally. 

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Published 2022-06-08

Surveillance: OECD Outlook with Boone (Podcast)

25 min Transcript
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Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, discusses the cut to their global growth forecast. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Economics Professor, says the OECD's forecast is too optimistic. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says there is more and more evidence that we may have reached peak inflation. Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodities Research, says "booming" US exports of petroleum products are driving the price of crude higher. 

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Published 2022-06-07

Surveillance: Recession Fears with Reinhart (Podcast)

27 min Transcript
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 Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon Chief Economist, says a low savings rate shows that households aren't too worried about a recession. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, expects Target and other retails to have a better second half of the year. Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, a lot of what the market has been facing is priced in to stocks. Mark Cabana, Bank of America Head of US Rates Strategy, says we're in the later innings of the economic cycle. 

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Published 2022-06-06

Surveillance: Optimistic Case with Calvasina (Podcast)

23 min Transcript
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Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, expects a material slowdown in economic growth while skirting a recession. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic Research, says US growth is slowing, but there is no recession coming in the near-term. Helane Becker, Cowen Senior Research Analyst, says any airline besides American, Delta or United, is going to continue struggling to attract and retain pilots. Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley Global Director of Fixed Income Research, says credit has a valuation problem. 

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Published 2022-06-03

Surveillance: US May Jobs Report (Podcast)

19 min Transcript
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Marty Walsh, US Secretary of Labor, reacts to the US jobs report. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Fed Governor, says the May employment report will spur the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points at least through September. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says the labor market is "too strong." Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short-Term Portfolio Management, explains the reasons for investors to remain defensive. 

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Published 2022-06-02

Surveillance: Fuel Rationing with Blanch (Podcast)

23 min Transcript
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 Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Global Research Head of Global Commodities and Derivatives Research, says demand-rationing measures may be needed around world to tame record fuel prices. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy Founder & Author of The Facebook Effect, discusses Meta after Sheryl Sandberg. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says the Fed's forecasts are aspirational. Megan Greene, Harvard Kennedy School Senior Fellow & Kroll Institute Global Chief Economist, doesn't expect a recession in the next 12 months. 

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Published 2022-06-01

Surveillance: Market Attitudes with Marks (Podcast)

31 min Transcript
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Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, says market attitudes are more balanced now and sees a better investment environment for bargain hunters. Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Federal Reserve Bank of New York Former President, says the US job market is the tightest it has ever been and suggests the Fed loosen up its approach. Stephen Schork, Schork Group Founder & President, says inflation has not peaked yet when it comes to food and energy. Deborah Cunningham, Federated Hermes Global Liquidity Markets CIO, says cash is now a valuable investment. 

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 Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion & Queens' College Cambridge President, says The Fed has to decide between two policy mistakes. Christyan Malek, JP Morgan Securities Global Energy Strategist, says there is still a lot of upside to energy prices from here. Ben Laidler, eToro Global Markets Strategist, says we're in a valuation driven correction. Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says growth risks are growing. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G10 FX Strategist, says euro to parity with the dollar is still possible in the months ahead. Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Chief Economist, is not expecting a recession in the US. Alina Polyakova, Center for European Policy Analysis President & CEO, says there is no end in sight for the war in Ukraine. 

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Published 2022-05-31

Surveillance: Reducing Prices with Deese (Podcast)

32 min Transcript
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Brian Deese, US National Economic Council Director, says US economic strengths can help bring prices down. Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist, says margins are more of a problem than growth. James Stavridis, Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO and Author, "To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts & The Crucible of Decision," says opening the seas to Ukraine will be the next big move in the war. Leland Miller, China Beige Book International CEO, says the economic conditions in China are the worst they've been in years. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, says the US needs more consistency in its energy regulation. 

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Published 2022-05-26

Surveillance: Housing Market with Feroli (Podcast)

22 min Transcript
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 Michael Feroli, JPMorgan Chief US Economist, says housing is coming back into balance. Geoffrey Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Strategist, says the euro will find a new, higher range but remain under-valued. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Chief Oil Analyst, says profit windfall taxes do not work. Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel President & CEO, says rising mortgage are one of the best things that is happening to housing.  

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Published 2022-05-25

Surveillance: Davos, Day 3 (Podcast)

58 min Transcript
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Dan Yergin, S&P Global Vice Chairman, says we're back to a more fragmented and less globalized world. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President, says China is the most important rising power. Scott Minerd, Guggenheim CIO, says no one has cracked the paradigm of crypto. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, says US fundamentals are strong. Karen Karniol-Tambour, Bridgewater Associates Co-CIO of Sustainable Investing, says there is no energy transition without commodities. Mikael Damberg, Swedish Finance Minister, discusses Sweden's historic decision to join NATO. Macky Tall, Carlyle Global Infrastructure Chairman, says the world is in dire need of more infrastructure investment. Kishore Mahbubani, National University of Singapore Senior Adviser & Public Policy Professor and Former UN Security Council President, says the world has to adjust to a new China.

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Published 2022-05-23

Surveillance: Davos, Day 1 (Podcast)

59 min Transcript
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Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz are live from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Jason Furman, Former Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, says a Fed funds rate of 4% or higher is completely plausible. Rebecca Patterson, Bridgewater Chief Investment Strategist, warns of a "vulnerable" dollar. John Kerry, US Special Climate Envoy and Former US Secretary of State, discusses the economic opportunity of climate change. Joseph Stiglitz, Columbia University Professor & Nobel Prize-Winning Economist, says raising rates won't fix the inflation problem. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder, sees some buying opportunities in the markets right now. Martin Escobari, General Atlantic Co-President, sees carnage in growth stocks. Senator Pat Toomey, (R) Pennsylvania & Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member, says the Biden administration is an extension of the Trump administration when is comes to trade. Christiano Amon, Qualcomm CEO, discusses the need for a reliable supply chain. 

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Published 2022-05-20

Surveillance: Inflation Trades with Golub (Podcast)

36 min Transcript
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 Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief Equity Strategist, says tech stocks will continue to struggle as long as we're in a high-inflation environment. Kwasi Kwarteng, UK Business & Energy Secretary, warns energy companies they may face a windfall tax if they don’t “step up” on new investments. Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Securities US Equity & Quantitative Strategy Head, says a lot of the bad news is priced in to the markets, but the worst is not yet behind us. John Ryding, Brean Capital Chief Economic Advisor, says the Fed doesn't know what it's going to take to get inflation back down to the 2% level. 

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Published 2022-05-19

Surveillance: Inflation with Sen. Rounds (Podcast)

23 min Transcript
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 Sen. Mike Rounds, (R) South Dakota, says we must lower energy costs in order to address inflation. Lori Heinel, State Street Global Advisors CIO, thinks the Fed could avoid a recession if they move in the summer and then pause. Patrick Palfrey, Credit Suisse Co-Head of Quantitative Research & Senior Equity Strategist, says everything on the fundamental front still seems intact. Robert Hormats, Tiedemann Advisors Managing Director, discusses the importance of President Biden's visit to Asia. 

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Published 2022-05-18

Surveillance: Inflation with Fed's Evans (Podcast)

38 min Transcript
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Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, says he is extremely confident the Fed can bring down inflation. Anna Han, Wells Fargo Securities Equity Strategist, says it will be difficult for the Fed to achieve a soft landing but recession chances are still low. Joseph Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Managing Director, says Target's profit cut is "transitory." Kit Juckes, Societe General Chief FX Strategist, doesn't see how Europe avoids a recession. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains why he’s currently increasing his net long exposure and also his view on the NY Yankees. 

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Published 2022-05-17

Surveillance: US Growth with Hatzius (Podcast)

25 min Transcript
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 Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist, discusses why his firm cut their US growth forecast. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO and Chief Research Officer, says digital sales are moderating and consumers are shifting back to brick-and-mortar. Scott Clemons, Chief Investment Strategist, Brown Brothers Harriman, says the market is too pessimistic about the risk of inflation. Winnie Cisar, Creditsights Global Head of Credit Strategy, says we're moving into the credit risk phase of the selloff. 

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Published 2022-05-16

Surveillance: Kuleba Rules Out Cease-Fire (Podcast)

30 min Transcript
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 Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba rules out offering Putin options for a cease-fire. Mark Esper, Former US Secretary of Defense, says the US needs to be careful about how it deals with China. Amanda Lynam, Goldman Sachs Senior Credit Strategist, sees triple-B firms as the sweet spot. William Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says this is the fist time in the history of the Fed that it may be able to escape crushing the economy to bring inflation down to its target level. Christian Nolting, Deutsche Bank Private Bank Global CIO, says it's time to go back to neural on stocks. 

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Published 2022-05-13

Surveillance: Inflation Expectations with Rajan (Podcast)

29 min Transcript
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 Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicago Booth School Professor & Former Reserve Bank of India Governor, says the market believes the Fed is serious about inflation. Angela Stent, Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow & “Putin’s World” author, says Putin's army is over-extended. Barton Crockett, Rosenblatt Securities Tech Analyst, doesn't see Elon Musk backing down from the Twitter deal. Megan Greene, Harvard Kennedy School Senior Fellow & Kroll Institute Global Chief Economist, says a soft landing will be tough for the Fed to achieve. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Head of Rates and Macro, says the market has to price in a lot more Fed tightening. 

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Published 2022-05-12

Surveillance: Valuation with Mueller-Glissmann (Podcast)

22 min Transcript
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Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Goldman Sachs Head of Portfolio Strategy, says markets are going through a valuation reset. Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Global Market Strategist, is investing based on a soft landing from the Fed. Steve Ricchiuto, Mizuho Americas Chief US Economist, says we are in the final stage of what is going to be a significant bear market. Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says Jay Powell deserves a second term as Fed chair. 

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Published 2022-05-11

Surveillance: Inflation Persistence with Dudley (Podcast)

27 min Transcript
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 Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, Bloomberg Economics Senior Advisor & Former New York Fed President, says the Fed hasn't been forceful enough in stating and achieving goal. Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says it is clear the Fed missed the boat on tightening. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist & Managing Director, says the only tool monetary policy has to bring the rate of price increases down is to cause a recession. Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner & Senior Research Analyst, wonders whether Disney needs to reassess their streaming strategy.

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Published 2022-05-10

Surveillance: Inflation with Rouse (Podcast)

25 min Transcript
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Cecilia Rouse, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, discusses how the Biden administration is addressing inflation concerns for Americans. Nathan Sheets, Citi Global Chief Economist, says the Fed is setting the tone for other central banks. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, says growth may slow much faster than many people believe. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, explains why she likes municipal bonds and not high yield. 

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Published 2022-05-09

Surveillance: Rate Hikes with Fed's Bostic (Podcast)

34 min Transcript
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 Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, says there is no need for a hike greater than 50 basis point. Wally Adeyemo, U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, says Russia's actions are a key contributor to energy and food price increases. George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank Global FX Research Head, says the market is too pessimistic on the euro. Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, says markets have been too aggressive on the speed of Fed hikes in the short-term. Cynthia Hooper, College of the Holy Cross Director of Russian and Eastern European Studies, discusses Vladimir Putin's Victory Day speech.

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Published 2022-05-06

Surveillance: U.S. Jobs Report with Walsh (Podcast)

31 min Transcript
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Marty Walsh, U.S. Secretary of Labor, says 95% of pre-pandemic jobs have recovered. Jeffrey Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says to watch the trend in wage inflation. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of Economics, doesn't expect anyone to be talking about a 75 basis-point hike anymore after today's jobs report. Mark Kimmitt, Retired Brigadier General & Former Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, says he would be surprised if the U.S. hadn't been providing intelligence support to Ukraine. 

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Published 2022-05-05

Surveillance: BOE's Recession Warning (Podcast)

19 min Transcript
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 Sebastien Page, T. Rowe Price Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Multi-Asset, says world capital markets are going through a hangover. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, says we can't assume inflation will come down in a straight line. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Chief Market Strategist, says Europe as a whole looks like it's headed for a recession. Paul Sankey, Sankey Research Founder & Lead Analyst, expects oil to hold in the $110-$115 range.

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Published 2022-05-04

Surveillance: Inflation with Jamie Dimon (Podcast)

39 min Transcript
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 Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO, says the Fed should have raised rates sooner. Paul Romer, NYU Professor, Nobel Laureate & Former World Bank Chief Economist, says a stable 4% inflation rate should be a good target for the Fed. Ben Laidler, eToro Global Markets Strategist, says equities are in a correction. Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Senior Fellow, Harvard Professor & Former Clinton Administration Official, says the debate over abortion is causing a tsunami of fury ahead of mid-term elections. Barbara Corcoran, The Corcoran Group Founder & "Shark Tank" Executive Producer, says the under-footings of the real estate market are solid. 

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Published 2022-05-03

Surveillance: Fed & Inflation with Rogoff (Podcast)

29 min Transcript
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 Ken Rogoff, Harvard Professor of Economics and Public Policy and Former IMF Chief Economist, says the Fed will have to raise rates to 4-5% to curb inflation. Mark Cabana, Bank of America Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, says it will be hard for the Fed to out-hawk the market. Kathy Jennings, Delaware Attorney General and Democratic Attorneys General Association Co-Chair, says the report that the Supreme Court may overturn Roe v. Wade should be a wake-up call for voters everywhere. Alina Polyakova, Center for European Policy Analysis President & CEO, says Putin's survival in Russia depends on a win in Ukraine. David Rubenstein, Bloomberg Wealth Host and Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder, discusses his interview with Marc Lasry, Avenue Capital Group Co-Founder & CEO and Milwaukee Bucks Co-Owner. 

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 Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research, says China oil demand growth will be negative this year and won't come back quickly.Leland Miller, China Beige Book International CEO, sees widespread weakness in China. Julian Emanuel, Evercore Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, says picking stocks wins the day. Kathy Bostjancic, Oxford Economics Chief U.S. Financial Economist, says the Federal Reserve will go less aggressive than the markets believe. 

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Published 2022-04-29

Surveillance: ECB’s Path Forward with Lane (Podcast)

33 min Transcript
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 Philip Lane, European Central Bank Chief Economist, says the key question facing the ECB isn’t whether it should raise interest rates from record lows, but how quickly it should do so. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, weighs in on the debate about how much scope the Federal Reserve has to tighten policy before the economy cracks. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the latest developments in the global energy markets. Brent Thill, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst, says no one wants to buy anything in tech. 

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Published 2022-04-28

Surveillance: Yen Drop Shakes Up Currencies (Podcast)

25 min Transcript
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 Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman Global Head of Currency Strategy, says it's impossible to control the yen.Wei Li, BlackRock Investment Institute Global Chief Investment Strategist, says U.S. markets will outperform their European counterparts due to the local economic drag of the conflict in Ukraine. Vitali Klitschko, Mayor of Kyiv, says Ukraine's economy is destroyed and the safety of those returning to the city cannot be guaranteed. John Lawler, Ford CFO, sees car prices rising further on higher commodity costs.  

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Published 2022-04-27

Surveillance: GM Sees 'Green Shoots' in China (Podcast)

28 min Transcript
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 Mary Barra, General Motors Chair & CEO, sees "green shoots" in China. Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says 2022 is a battleground between the Fed's pivot and good corporate fundamentals. Tina Fordham, Fordham Global Foresight Founder & Geopolitical Strategist, says the conflict is tipping towards Ukraine. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, sees a 30% chance of U.S. recession. 

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Published 2022-04-26

Surveillance: Musk Seals $44B Twitter Deal (Podcast)

27 min Transcript
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Scott Kessler of Third Bridge and Brian Wieser of Group M, discuss what analysts and investors are looking for from Elon Musk at Twitter. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Senior Equity Analyst, says Citigroup has not been looking after the interests of shareholders. Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says playing field leveled for active vs. passive investing. U.K. Ambassador to the U.S. Karen Pierce discusses her nation's efforts to aid Ukraine, the transition from Russian energy sources, and the need to ensure freedom of navigation. 

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Published 2022-04-26

Surveillance: Twitter, Musk Said to Near Deal (Podcast)

27 min Transcript
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Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner & Senior Research Analyst, says Elon Musk's $43 billion purchase offer is a "gift" to Twitter, and suggests the social-media giant "take the money and run." Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO, says the move in the Chinese yuan is the "most dramatic" since 2015. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, says best trade may be to move into cash. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief U.S. Economist, discusses the outlook for the economy and Federal Reserve policy. 

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Published 2022-04-22

Surveillance: Russia Sanctions with Singh (Podcast)

28 min Transcript
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Daleep Singh, Deputy National Security Advisor, says the U.S. sanctions against Russia are having the expected debilitating effect. Jean Boivin, Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, doesn't expect the Fed to go beyond neutral. Glenn Hubbard, Columbia Professor & Former Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, says the Fed still has credibility with the public. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Investment Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says oversold markets can stay oversold. Geoffrey Yu, Bank of New York Mellon Senior EMEA Markets Strategist, expects to see a lot of chop and change in emerging markets. 

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Published 2022-04-21

Bloomberg Surveillance: Ukraine War with EU's Dombrovskis

28 min Transcript
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Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commission Executive Vice President, says Putin will continue his aggression beyond Ukraine if he is not stopped there. Claudia Sahm, Jain Family Institute Director of Macroeconomic Research and Former Federal Reserve Economist, says the Fed doesn't have the power to control food and gas prices. Jon Gray, Blackstone COO, says the market selloff is creating opportunities. Dan Ives, Wedbush Managing Director of Research, expects to see strong tech earnings next month. 

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Published 2022-04-20

Bloomberg Surveillance: Global Debt with Malpass

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David Malpass, World Bank President, calls for a more robust world debt resolution process. Brian Wieser, GroupM Global President for Business Intelligence, says investor expectations for Netflix were "way out of whack." Stephen Roach, Yale University Jackson Institute of Global Affairs Senior Fellow, says the Fed has miles to go on normalization. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President, says investors should pay more attention to the effect of Japanese monetary policy on the U.S. treasury market. Margie Patel, Allspring Global Investments Senior Portfolio Manager, says the Fed may be nearing a pause on hikes. 

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Published 2022-04-19

Bloomberg Surveillance: Fed Moves with Mahajan

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Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones Senior Investment Strategist, says investors are bracing for a big Fed move. Robert Blackwill, CFR Senior Fellow, says Russia is unlikely to use a nuclear device, but it is no longer impossible. Mark McCormick, TD Securities Global Head of FX Strategy, thinks the U.S. dollar can still strengthen from here. Amesh Adalja, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Senior Scholar, says it may take a while for the medical community to gain back the trust of the American public. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, discusses his interview with Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan. 

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Published 2022-04-18

Surveillance: Hard Landing with Dudley

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 Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion & Former New York Fed President, argues that the slower the Fed moves, the harder the landing will be. John Lipsky, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Distinguished Scholar and former IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says the war in Ukraine has the potential for very serious and long-lasting disruptions in grain markets. Daniel Skelly, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Head of Market Research & Strategy, says he's seeing mixed messages from the stock and bond markets. Michelle Meyer, MasterCard Chief U.S. Economist, says consumer spending is still strong in the U.S. Alina Polyakova, Center for European Policy Analysis President & CEO, says Mariupol is the only thing standing in the way of Russia connecting its land and naval forces in Ukraine. 

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Published 2022-04-14

Surveillance: Rate Hikes with Fed's Williams

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John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, says including hikes in increments of a half-percentage point is a “reasonable option” for the Fed. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, says the war in Ukraine is threatening the world order. Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, expects to see inflation easing toward 3% in the second half of the year. Angela Stent, Brookings Non-Resident Senior Fellow and Dan Yergin, S&P Global Vice Chairman, discuss their outlook for the war in Ukraine. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, says inflation is probably peaking in the U.S.

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Published 2022-04-13

Surveillance: Subway Shooting with Mayor Adams

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New York City Mayor Eric Adams discusses his plan for reducing crime in New York City. Nina Khrushcheva, The New School Professor of International Affairs, discusses what the possibility of Finland and Sweden joining NATO means for Putin. Steven Englander, Standard Chartered Bank Global Head of G10 FX Research, says dollar strength has more to do with inflation than concerns from the Russia-Ukraine War. Kathy Bostjancic, Oxford Economics Chief U.S. Economist, expects to see inflation above 5% at the end of the year. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, expects equities to return to their pre-March Fed lows.

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