Bloomberg Surveillance

Greg Daco, Oxford Economics Chief U.S. Economist, doesn't see much momentum upward for yields going forward. Antony Phillipson, British Consul General for the U.S., says there's no more important trade partnership for the U.K. than the one it has with North America. Jenn Hyman, Rent The Runway CEO, says her company is more often linked with the sharing economy than retail. Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, expects the U.S. and China negotiations to focus on the details of goods trading rather than China's business practices. 

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Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says although the business community want tariffs to end, D.C. politicians are comfortable with them. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Chief U.S. Interest Rates Strategist, and Jeanna Smialek, Bloomberg Economy Reporter, highlight the Fed's cautiousness. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, thinks the economy is shifting gears but it's at a very early stage. Francine Lacqua, Bloomberg Surveillance Anchor, updates us on Brexit talks from Brussels at the European Leaders Summit. 

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Kate Moore, BlackRock Investment Institute Chief Equity Strategist, says the opportunity in equities is on quality. Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist, and Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics & Policy Correspondent, share their expectations for today's Fed meeting. Theresa Kong, Matthews Asia Head of Fixed Income & Portfolio Manager, says Chinese defaults will slowly increase but they are a necessary evil. Therese Raphael, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the option of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table at the end of June. 

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Remembering Princeton University's Alan Krueger with Dartmouth Professor of Economics Danny Blanchflower, Bloomberg International Economics & Policy Correspondent Michael McKee, University of Michigan Associate Professor for Public Policy & Former U.S. Department of Labor Chief Economist Betsey Stevenson, and Bloomberg Businessweek Economics Editor Peter Coy.

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Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short-Term Bond Portfolios, says investors must calibrate expectations taking into account higher volatility. Brian Wieser, GroupM Global President of Business Intelligence, talks the future of the ad industry. Vasant Dhar, NYU Stern Professor, explains why this AI cycle is different. Viviana Hurtado, Bloomberg Reporter, details exciting new developments from New York City's new Hudson Yards. Barry Strauss, Cornell Professor of History, discusses his book "Ten Caesars" on the Ides of March. 

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Steve Eisman, Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, discusses his three U.K. bank shorts. Patricia Mosser, Columbia University Economic Policy Management Program Director, says China and Europe are slowing the U.S. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chairman and CEO, says trade imbalances could cause a financial recession. David Rubenstein, The Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chairman, says there's no evidence that going to elite schools will make children do better in life. Ambassador William J. Burns, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace President, discusses his new book "The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal." 

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Raghuram Rajan, Former RBI Governor and University of Chicago Booth School of Business, says the college admissions scandal is a "blow to the system". Brian Levitt, OppenheimerFunds Senior Investment Strategist, says he is starting to see stabilization in Chinese growth. Krishna Memani, OppenheimerFunds CIO, says EM investing is about companies rather than geographies. Laura Francis, Bloomberg Law Senior Legal Editor, says it's highly unlikely that the budget bill passes Congress. Christina Boris, OppenheimerFunds Client Research Head, says most of their clients are focused on long term investment. 

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Dave McKay, RBC President & CEO, says the company is open to "tactical" acquisitions. Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds CIO of Growth Equities, believes that orders of the Boeing 737 MAX 8 will remain intact.  Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says wage growth came too little and too late. Christopher Jasper, Bloomberg European Transportation Deputy Team Leader, explains the differences between the Boeing 737 MAX 8 and previous models.

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Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, doesn't think the trade spat is directly behind China's slow economic growth. Nick Lardy, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow, highlights that consumption is now the major source of growth in China. Chris Bryant, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says it's unclear if the cause of the Ethiopian crash was a Boeing design flaw. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, doubts that fair trade will be negotiated between the U.S. and China.  

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Lawrence Kudlow, White House National Economic Council Director, joins Jonathan Ferro to discuss this month's surprising jobs report. 

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To celebrate International Women's Day, Bloomberg Surveillance brings you top voices in the worlds of finance, economics and international affairs. Mona Mahajan, Allianz Global Investors Director & U.S. Investment Strategist, says at some point, Europe could become interesting from a dividend perspective. Kathy Jones, Schwab Center for Financial Research Chief Fixed Income Strategist, expects 10-year Treasury yields to go below 2.5%. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President & Founder, says service sector dynamics can be resilient in the next global slowdown. Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist, says women remain "dramatically underrepresented" in universities. And Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Senior Fellow, discusses candidates in the presidential race. 

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David Rosenberg, Gluskin Scheff Chief Economist & Strategist, says the EU needs a weaker euro to stimulate the manufacturing sector. Bill Lee, Milken Chief Economist, says global equity markets would crash if President Trump walked away from a deal with China. David Owen, Jefferies International Chief European Financial Economist, talks the challenges of the "large and fragmented" EU banking sector. Louise Yamada, Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, feels more constructive about gold.

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Vince Cable, U.K. Liberal Democrat Party Leader, says India will overtake China. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, says the ECB has its hands tied.  William Dudley, Princeton Senior Research Scholar & Former Federal Reserve Bank Of New York President, thinks Fed tightening might be on the table in the second half of 2019. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, notes financial conditions are the easiest since last October. Saleha Mohsin, Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Department Reporter, says markets and China want a deescalation of tariffs. 

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Elizabeth Economy, CFR Senior Fellow & Director for Asia Studies, says there's a sense of political malaise in China. David Ingles, Bloomberg Markets Reporter, joins us from Beijing to report on China's lowering of its growth target. Marianne Petsing-Schneider, Chatham House U.S. Geo-Economics Fellow for U.S. and the Americas Programme, says the U.S. is now in a stronger negotiating position for trade talks with China. Daniel Katzive, BNP Head of FX Strategy North America, says the renminbi is increasingly more market determined. Steve Wieting, Global Chief Investment Strategist, discusses China's moves to reinvigorate its economy. 

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Russ Koesterich, BlackRock Global Allocation Team Portfolio Manager, is concerned about companies with business models dependent on a growing economy. Liz Young, BNY Mellon Investment Management Director of Market Strategy, thinks we have overdone this rally "a little bit." Liz McCormick, Bloomberg News FX & Bonds Reporter, discusses modern monetary theory. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex Chief Market Strategist & Managing Partner, says Europe remains the weak sister. Haran Segram, NYU Leonard N. Stern School of Business Professor, breaks down how he valuates a tech company. 

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Willam Dudley, Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, thinks the Fed is probably not done yet with hiking. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest-Rates Strategy, recommends to keep duration risk light. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, doesn't think there is a do-over in Amazon coming to New York City. Bill Gross, Janus Capital Management Fund Manager, tells Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker how having Asperger's syndrome has helped him in his career. 

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Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg TV & Radio Chief Washington Correspondent, brings us an update from Hanoi. Chris Grisanti, Grisanti Capital Management CEO, says for growth, China needs stimulus and a trade deal. Lisa Collins, Center for Strategic & International Studies Fellow, highlights the challenges ahead for Kim Jong Un as he aims to open up his country. Katherine Moon, Wellesley College Professor of Political Science & Brookings Institution Nonresident Senior Fellow, thinks the Hanoi summit was not a failure but it was constructive. And Alejandro Werner, IMF Monetary Fund Director of the Western Hemisphere Department, updates us on the economic situation in Venezuela. ------

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Todd Mariano, Eurasia Group U.S. Director, and Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX & Macro Trading Strategy, discuss their expectations for the Trump and Kim summit. Iain Marlow, Bloomberg South Asia Government Reporter, says India is unlikely to engage in talks with Pakistan. Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist, and Jeanna Smialek, Bloomberg Fed Reporter, update us on what to look for in Powell's second day of testimony. James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, Carlyle Group Advisor & Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, says the chances of Kim Jong Un giving up his nuclear weapons are equal to [as slim as] Mexico paying for the wall. And June Grasso, Bloomberg Radio Host, says "fasten your seat belts" for Michael Cohen's hearing today. 

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Raghuram Rajan, Author of "The Third Pillar" and Former Reserve Bank of India Governor, advocates for pushing decision making back to the local level. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity and Derivatives Strategist, wants a break in the rally because we could get a performance chase. Diane Swonk, Grant Thorton Chief Economist, says there is a blind faith in China's ability to provide growth and command. Taylor Riggs, Bloomberg News Reporter, brings us an update from the JPMorgan Investor Day. 

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Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas U.S. Head of Equity and Derivative Strategy, explains the confluence of factors that could lead EM to outperform DM. Karen Ubelhart, Bloomberg Intelligence Industrials Analyst, says selling Danaher solves a big chunk of GE's debt problem. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President & Founder, expects another flattening of the dot plot in the March Fed's meeting. Jean Case, "Be Fearless" Author, talks the role of failure in success stories. 

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Marty Feldstein, Harvard University Professor of Economics, says China is focused on trade deficits to divert from trade theft. Tara LaChapelle, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, blames Kraft Heinz's fall on the company's short-sighted strategy. Kathy Jones, Schwab Center for Financial Research Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says we're still not clear about what the Fed is doing. Anne Mathias, Vanguard Group Senior Strategist of Global Rates & FX, says trade disputes are a proxy for worries about global growth. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, Founder & Chief Research Officer, says next week, investors will focus on inventory levels at department stores. 

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Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, says Chinese numbers are more stable than ours [in the U.S.]. John Micklethwait, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief, discusses his latest piece on the end of the Anglosphere, the global influence of the U.S. and Britain. Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter Editor, says we are still in a bull market. Lori Calvasina, RBC Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, thinks there is still "a little bit of room" in equity markets. 

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Andreas Utermann, Allianz Global Investors CEO, and David Herro, Harris Associates CIO of International Equities, debate active and passive investment. Philippe Reines, Former Hillary Clinton Adviser, says Republicans are now less focused on social values and more on economics. Mark Connors, Credit Suisse Managing Director and Global Head of Portfolio & Risk Advisory, discusses upcoming challenges for hedge funds. Kate Warne, Edward Jones Investment Strategist, sees more investment opportunities outside of the U.S. 

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Ruchir Sharma, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Chief Global Strategist & "Democracy on the Road" Author, discusses India's sociopolitical landscape. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says "nothing in the world" is as cheap as European stocks in terms of risk assets. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg's Chief Washington Correspondent, thinks Bernie Sanders is front runner for the 2020 election. Sarah Halzack, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, remembers Chanel's Karl Lagerfeld as a "taste maker." Jim Suva, Citi Managing Director, joins us to talk tech. 

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Gabriela Santos, JPM Asset Management Global Market Strategist, doesn't think the EM story is overplayed. Bipan Rai, CIBC Head of North American Foreign-Exchange Strategy, thinks the dollar is overvalued 12% to 15%. Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Director of Policy Research, highlights that both China and the U.S. are incentivized to continue negotiations. Amaka Anku, Eurasia Group Practice Head of Africa, says no candidate in the Nigerian elections is tackling the problem of revenue generation. 

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David Herro, Harris Associates CIO of International Equities, highlights the importance of patience in investing, especially in periods like last year when certain sectors got highly devalued. He also discusses the merger of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank and how he expects this to help European banks from a price perspective.

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Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-Chief Investment Officer, says growth will be quite muted in 2019. Carolynn Look, Bloomberg Economy & ECB Reporter, says fundamentals are still strong in Europe. Matt Freund, Calamos Advisors Head of Fixed Income Strategies & Co-CIO, says it is not just one bond market but a market of bonds. Mona Mahajan, Allianz U.S. Investment Strategist, says the December pullback had to do with U.S. recession fears. 

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Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Adviser, says the trade relationship between the U.S. and China is part of a wider new Cold War. George Goncalves, Nomura Securities Managing Director & Head of Americas Fixed Income Strategy, thinks the bond market is nervous about a downturn. Laura Davison, Bloomberg Tax Reporter, says only Democrats in the North East are addressing the new limit on federal deductions for state and local tax payments. Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, sees a greater risk of an earnings recession than an economic recession. 

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Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, and Edmund Shing, BNP Paribas Global Head of Equity & Derivatives Strategy, discuss dollar strength. Bill Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says economic dynamism lessens social problems. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, says social democracy is the price of avoiding socialism. Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago's Booth School of Business Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, reflects on U.S.-China relations. 

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Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary General, says he is not predicting a recession. Catherine Mann, Citi Research Global Chief Economist, says even the U.S. cannot escape the global slowdown. Gary Shilling, A. Gary Shilling President, says strong economic growth brings income polarization. Miranda Carr, Haitong International China Macro Strategist, says nobody is expecting a final deal between the U.S. and China by March 1. 

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David Bailin, Citi Private Bank Global Head of Investments, says bond guys tend to have it right. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments Chief Global Strategist, thinks the Republicans are less divided than the Democrats. David Stubbs, JPMorgan Global Market Strategist, says the U.S. economy will slow significantly in 2020. Margaret Brennan, Face the Nation Host, says President Trump remains very confident on his convictions despite being embattled. 

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Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, says the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee members have much more independence than the members of the FOMC. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Professor of Economics, says it is tough days to be a forecaster at the BOE's MPC. David Malpass, World Bank President Nominee, is optimistic that more progress can be made on extreme poverty. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says fair value for the S&P is still a big higher than current levels. 

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Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg News Chief Washington TV & Radio Correspondent, shares his takeaways from Pres. Trump's second State of the Union address. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tennessee), says Trump is exceedingly popular in his district. James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, discusses U.S. foreign policy under the current administration. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President & Founder, brings us an update on U.S. markets and the Fed. Cheryl Bolen, Bloomberg Government White House Reporter, says Stacey Abrams discussed many of the same themes as the SOTU in her Democratic response. 

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Gene Frieda, PIMCO Global Strategist, and Therese Raphael, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, discuss why markets don't price in the scenario of a no-Brexit. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says Trump has remade the Republican party. Brian Jacobsen, Wells Capital Management Chief Portfolio Strategist, says one of the cardinal rules of successful investment is diversification and patience. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, expects the spend line of Disney to ramp up, causing the share price to stumble. 

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In an exclusive interview with Tom Keene, Bill Gross announces his retirement and reveals his plans for the future. 

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Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Managing Director of Global, notes that the Fed seems to be in an extended pause. Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Securities Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, doesn't see the U.S. going into recession. Margaret Brennan, Face the Nation Host, previews her interview with President Trump. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says price momentum makes people feel more bullish. 

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Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Long Short Fund Senior Portfolio Manager, says there's not a lot of inflation in the Fed data due to the impact of technology and globalization. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow, emphasizes that there is a will to get something done between the U.S. and China. Rich Greenfield, BTIG Technology, Media & Telecom Analyst, believes that Instagram will be a bigger business than Facebook in totality long-term. Chuck Leavell, Musician and Mother Nature Network Co-Founder, shares his experience working with music legends. 

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Anna Edwards, Bloomberg News Anchor, gives us an update on Brexit negotiations. Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, says markets are still talking about recession. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor & Former Fed Governor, discusses whether the tight labor market could lead to inflation. Deborah Lehr, Paulson Institute Vice Chairman, expects some kind of framework trade deal between the U.S. and China. Al Broaddus, Former Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President, says Former Fed officials Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen did a great job handling the 2008 financial crisis. 

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Troy Gayeski, SkyBridge Capital Partner, says the U.S. economy is the most isolated from other markets. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodities Research, favors oil out of the cyclical commodities. Will Power, Baird Senior Research Analyst, says Apple can capitalize on the 1.4 billion active devices they have globally. Julia Coronado, President & Founder of Macropolicy Perspectives, says she will focus on balance sheet comments in tomorrow's Fed meeting. And Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, says Brexit is bad news for NATO. 

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Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist, is more focused on the Fed than on trade tensions. Stewart Patrick, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, doesn't see a new global hegemon on the horizon. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, expects data to confirm that in the fourth quarter, we were in solid footing. Dean Curnutt, Macro Risk Advisors CEO, says current volatility comes from a mix of both micro and macro trends. 

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Marty Schenker, Bloomberg Chief Content Officer, says the indictment of Roger Stone is not related to the crime but the cover-up. Maxim Oreshkin, Russia's Economy Minister, says oil is not a story for Russia anymore. Ricardo Hausmann, Harvard's Kennedy School of Government Professor, says Venezuela's Juan Guaido has massive support. Shannon O'Neil, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, says we should be watching what happens with the protests in Venezuela. 

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Herbert Diess, Volkswagen CEO, is optimistic about trade. Jason Bordoff, Columbia University Professor and Former Special Assistant to President Obama, says we need to move much faster to a clean energy transition. Nadia Calviño Santamaría, Spanish Economy Minister, says the Spanish economy will grow above the EU average in 2019. Mark Rutte, Netherlands Prime Minister, says the economy has to deliver to the people. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, warns that Russia is not complying with the INF Treaty. 

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Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director, ranks trade tensions as the top risk for the global economy. Brian Moynihan, Bank of America CEO, says economic data in December were strong enough for a rate rise. Stephen Pagliuca, Bain Capital Co-Chairman, thinks the key in this private equity environment is to be selective. Scott Minerd, Guggenheim CIO, explains the impact of ETFs becoming a bigger player in markets. 

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John Normand, JPMorgan Head of Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy, Morris Reid, Mercury LLC Partner, and Tony Gardner, Former U.S. Ambassador to the EU, discuss their expectations for the World Economic Forum starting Monday in Davos. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, expects favorable news regarding an easing of sanctions to Chinese imports. Pippa Malmgren, H Robotics Co-Founder & Former U.S. Presidential Advisor to President George W. Bush, shares her optimist outlook for the world economy. Roger Bootle, Capital Economics Founder & Chairman, says Europe would be better off without the euro. 

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Laura Cha, Hong Kong Exchange Chair, says there's a lot the Chinese government can do in opening up the financial market. Mohammed Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General, says the Organization is transparent as a fishbowl. Arne Sorenson, Marriott International CEO, thinks Democrats and Republicans ought to arrive at a consensus on immigration. Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco CEO, says the company is in discussions to acquire 70% of SABIC. George Osborne, London Evening Standard Editor and Former Chancellor of the Exchequer, thinks it's not acceptable for the U.K. to leave the EU without a deal. 

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Arthur Levitt, Former SEC Chairman, remembers John Bogle's legacy. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy & Senior Currency Analyst, says the  fundamentals of both the euro and the dollar are deteriorating. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst, talks how U.S. banks were forced to become bank holding companies after the crisis. Simon French, Panmure Gordon Chief Economist, compares the economic outlook in the U.S. and Europe. Adam Posen, PIIE President and former member of BOE Monetary Policy Committee, says the Phillips curve is definitely still in play. 

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Charles Peabody, Portales Partners LLC President, recaps U.S. bank earnings with us. Lord Robert Skidelsky, House of Lords Member, says David Cameron landed the U.K. in the Brexit mess without adequate preparation. Chuck Robbins, Cisco Chairman and CEO, says the migration to cloud is driving their growth. Baroness Helena Kennedy, House of Lords Member, says the DUP have Theresa May "by the tail" over the Northern Ireland border agreement. 

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Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Investment Banking Reporter, joins us to break JPMorgan's earnings. Brian Levitt, Oppenheimer Funds Senior Investment Strategist, says the U.S. is slowing back to trend. Ken Leon, CFRA Global Director of Research, says to be cautious on banks. Victoria Hewson, Institute of Economic Affairs' International Trade & Competition Unit Senior Counsel, discusses trade scenarios under Brexit. John B. Taylor, Stanford University Professor of Economics, does not think the government shutdown will impact the economy. 

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Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, says Brexit is a stagflation event. Fred Cannon, KBW Global Director of Research, previews the U.S. bank earnings coming up this week. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. & Americas Programme, thinks Republicans will have to present the President with a plan to break the gridlock. John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence TMT Team Leader, discusses Apple music versus Spotify. 

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John Ryding, RDQ Economics Chief Economist & Founding Partner, says the U.S. is in a stronger place than it was several years ago despite what is going on inside the Beltway. Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist, says we need more training for those who lose their jobs to trade and technology. Mary Barra, General Motors Chairman & CEO, foresees a healthy U.S. market for GM. Laurence Ball, Johns Hopkins University Professor of Economics & Department Chair and Author of "The Fed and Lehman Brothers", critiques how central bankers have discussed the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. 

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