Bloomberg Surveillance

Stan Collender, MSL Group's executive vice president, says the GOP tax bill isn't economic in origin, but totally political. Prior to that, Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist at RDQ Economics, says we're not yet at levels on the yield curve where we need to be worried about a downturn in the economy. Bloomberg TV anchor Jon Ferro joins for a beat to mourn Italy not qualifying for the 2018 World Cup. Rajiv Jain, founder and CIO of GQG Partners, says he's pretty upbeat on a long term basis about emerging markets in Africa. Finally, Nick Heymann, William Blair & Co.'s co-head of global industrial infrastructure, says General Electric is attempting to offset its inherent cyclicality. 

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Jeff Sprague, founder of Vertical Research Partners, predicts upwards of ten percent of General Electric staff will be out the door in the next 36 months. Prior to that, Seth Masters, the former CIO of AB Bernstein, says the changes at GE symbolically highlight the passing of the baton from the U.S. being defined as a great manufacturer to the industry contributing to a smaller portion of GDP. Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Administration, says the $1.5 trillion loss from the tax bill makes the GOP look like fiscal chicken hawks. Finally, Ed Hammond, a senior deals reporter at Bloomberg News, says Qualcomm rejecting Broadcom is the least surprising news of the day. 

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Barry Eichengreen, a professor of economics at University of California Berkeley, discusses global currencies and comments on China's move to open markets for financial firms, saying "it will take time, if it happens." Prior to that, Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, says we should be expecting some correction in the markets. Finally, Steve Rattner, chairman at Willett Advisors, says there's a better than 50/50 chance that the House flips in the 2018 elections. 

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Nobel Laureate Edmund Phelps says it would be good to try out higher interest rates and that reopening coal mines in the U.S. wouldn't send a good signal to the rest of the world. Prior to that, Jens Nordvig, CEO of Exante Data, says if U.S. tax reform doesn't happen in the coming months, the dollar may drift weaker. Finally, Krishna Memani, Oppenheimerfunds' chief investment officer, says the core of the Fed under Jay Powell won't be dramatically different than under Janet Yellen. 

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Timothy O'Brien, executive editor at Bloomberg View and Bloomberg Gadfly, discusses last night's election results and says collusion isn't a threat to President Trump, but bribery may "bring the hen to roost." Prior to that, Axel G. Merk, president of Merk Investments, says the biggest tail-risk right now is if China retaliates with trade policy. Steven Major, HSBC's head of fixed income research, says the ECB has missed its chance to hike. Finally, Senator Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican from West Virginia, says we need to find a non-addictive pain medicine and fund more research to beat the opioid crisis. 

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Thomas Edward Perez, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, discusses today's elections and says President Trump is filling the swamp with his own alligators. Prior to that, Ted Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the U.S. is a reasonably low-taxed country. Ralph Northam, the lieutenant governor of the state of Virginia, says Trump has released detrimental policies in Washington. Finally, Stephen Kotkin, a professor of history and international affairs at Princeton University, says Russia is at a weak point right now. 

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Francine Lacqua sits down for a conversation with U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross following reports of Russia linked investments. Then, Michael McKee discusses NY Fed President William Dudley's recent retirement announcement. Prior to that, Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Securities' chief U.S. equity strategist, says the markets are perceiving Jay Powell as a continued Janet Yellen governance. Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, says the Republican tax bill's proposed 20 percent corporate tax rate won't survive. Finally, Mohammed Alyahya, a nonresident fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, says the issue of a Saudi corruption 'Band-Aid' is being torn off but perhaps may lead to uncertainty. 

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Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Henderson, says it's getting much harder to generate alpha and the Fed can't raise rates much further before it hurts the economy. Prior to that, Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says there's an 85 percent chance that the GOP tax proposal will go through. Finally, Joachim Fels, a global economic advisor at PIMCO, says we're stuck in the new neutral and there's no escape from the savings glut. 

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Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs' senior investment portfolio strategist, says the economy is at a point of structural change and she's disappointed that Janet Yellen won't be picked again for Fed Chair. Danny Blanchflower, a professor at Dartmouth College, says the Bank of England rate raise in an already slowing economy will slow it even more. JPMorgan's John Bilton says the U.S. has a reasonable labor force growth compared to other markets. Finally, Gordon Wood, author of "Friends Divided: John Adams and Thomas Jefferson," says the U.S. really needs a multiparty political system. 

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Scott Galloway, a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, says it's not a question of can Big Tech become too big, but can it become too powerful. Prior to that, Steven Wieting, Citi Private Bank's chief global investment strategist, says monetary policy won't be the driving force changing economic markets if Jay Powell becomes Fed Chair. Rick Mishkin, a professor at Columbia University's Business School, says Jay Powell would do a terrific job as Fed Chairman, but Janet Yellen would still be better. Finally, Austan Goolsbee, former chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisors, says Congress isn't even remotely trying to get a 1986-style "comprehensive" tax reform. 

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Richard Ben-Veniste, a partner at Mayer Brown and a former Watergate special prosecutor, says George Papadopoulos's indictment was a surprise and that Robert Mueller is running an efficient and appropriate investigation. Prior to that, Richard Clarida, a strategic advisor at PIMCO, says President Trump is choosing from the right group of people in the Fed Chair shortlist. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says anyone that's been in contact with Papadopoulos will be questioned by the FBI. David Herro, Harris Associates' CIO of international equity, says making Christopher Bailey an executive at Burberry was a mistake. Finally, Jeff Jarvis, a journalism professor at CUNY Graduate School, says it's too early to start government regulation of the internet. 

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Mark Mobius, Templeton Emerging Markets Group's executive chairman, says China is a "planned" economy and the Communist party will step in at any moment of crisis. Prior to that, Christopher Grisanti, founder of Grisanti Capital Management, says Apple will sell a lot of $1,100 phones. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI's managing director, says the world of Washington D.C. won't stop, despite any Trump-Russia related indictments. Finally, Cass Sunstein, a Bloomberg View columnist and the author of "Impeachment: A Citizen's Guide," says the important track to follow in Mueller's indictments is the connection to the White House. 

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Former Republican Presidential candidate Carly Fiorina says Democrats need to get a program and criticizing Donald Trump isn't enough. Prior to that, Vincent Reinhart, Standish Mellon's chief economist, says Jay Powell as a Fed Chair would be different than Jay Powell as a Fed governor. Nathan Sheets, PGIM's chief economist, says China's President Xi has set himself up for not just five years, but 10 years of rule. Paul Hanly Jr, attorney and shareholder at Simmons Hanly Conroy, says Trump's speech on the opioid epidemic was a disappointment. Brian Wieser, a senior research analyst at Pivotal Research, says Twitter suffers from "shiny object syndrome." Finally, Carlyle Group Co-Founder David Rubenstein says it's important that Carlyle maintains its culture through its executive shakeup. 

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Henry Kaufman, president of Kaufman & Co., says robots will replace human labor. George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, says it doesn't matter what President Trump wants, NAFTA will ultimately be decided upon by Congress. Finally, Arthur Levitt, former SEC chair, says a single, global model for market research would be spectacular. 

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Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates Co-Chairman and Founder discusses his latest book, 'Principles', the future of the Fed and why the worst asset class to be in is cash.

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With the final trove of records on John F. Kennedy's assassination due to be released after more than half a century, Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Bob Moon look back at a day that will be forever seared into the collective memory of the nation.

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Representative Dave Brat, a Republican from Virginia, says more Americans should raise a ruckus about government spending. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says Trump's base will continue to hang in there and as long as they do, he's inoculated. Michael Purves, Weeden & Co.'s head of equity and derivatives strategy, says you can expect the VIX to reprice if volatility continues to stay low. Finally, Wells Fargo Securities' Mike Mayo and Mike Schumacher discuss the state of banking on Wall Street and the future of the Federal Reserve.

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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says the Fed Chair is an important decision that President Trump is taking very, very seriously. Prior to that, Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, says China has operated on the same principle of contradictions since the 1980s. Craig Moffett, senior research analyst at Moffettnathanson, says the wireless industry in the U.S. is shrinking partly because of T-Mobile. Senator Cory Gardner, a Republican from Colorado, says Colorado has grown to become a great 'software' state for tech. Steven Swartz, president and CEO of Hearst, says the magazine business is tougher now but his company has been around a long time and will be around for a lot longer. Finally, Virginia Governor Terence McAuliffe says the new Virginia economy is focused on jobs that aren't always related to technology. 

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John Vail, Nikko Asset Management's chief global strategist, says Japan is pessimistic about their own economy, but the markets could be in a period of a "fresh new start." Prior to that, Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank's chief international economist, says the big thing to look out for from the ECB is an end date to QE. Finally, Lupin Rahman, PIMCO's executive vice president of sovereign credit, says politics are a source of alpha within emerging markets.

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Nicholas Heymann, an analyst at William Blair, says GE's John Flannery is moving at lightspeed in changing the company. Prior to that, Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners, says long rates don't look like they're headed up dramatically any time soon. Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates' vice chairman, says the current administration's level of engagement with China isn't enough. Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat from Maryland, says middle-class tax payers will be hit hard under President Trump's tax plan. Finally, Rich Greenfield, an analyst at BTIG, says Amazon's prepared to take football rights away from legacy media. 

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Dennis Gartman, the editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter, reacts to the recent highs in the stock market and says markets have been ridiculously overpriced lately. Prior to that, Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank's global head of G-10 FX strategy, says 1987's Black Monday was extraordinary but 2008 was far worse. Finally, Saadia Madsbjerg, the managing director at the Rockefeller Foundation, says the forest fire prevention budget is under pressure. 

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Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist, says we don't have a Central Bank inflation issue at this stage, but that is looming. Representative Mark Walker, a Republican from North Carolina, says people are hurting under Obamacare, but insurance companies aren't. Finally, Enda Kenny, the former Prime Minister of Ireland, says there's no reason why Britain couldn't be a global power within the current European Union. 

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Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc., tells Tom Keene and David Gura how a short seller survives during a bull market. Bill Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, says a John Taylor Fed chairmanship would give us more predictable framework than current Federal Open Market Committee language does. Finally, Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs magazine, says that when it comes to foreign policy, it's better to watch than listen. 

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Steve Eisman, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, talks about the smaller credit default market and says banks will increase their percentage of stock buybacks. Former Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn says the insurance market needs price discovery and transparency. Finally, Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS, says there was a split at the IMF meeting last week, with European bankers and policymakers worried and their U.S. counterparts more optimistic.

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Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren talks about the jobless rate and changing inflation dynamics. David Lipton, the first deputy managing director of the IMF, says the IMF has favored tax reform in the U.S. for a long time. David Malpass, the under secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, says he'd like to see more growth in the U.S. and abroad. Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, says monetary policy should be more aggressive if inflation is going to stay low. Finally, Pierre Moscovici, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs, says populism in Europe has lost battles but not the war.

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Live from the World Bank/IMF Meetings in Washington DC. Christine Lagarde, IMF's managing director, says the IMF has repeatedly said corporate tax reform was needed in the U.S. Prior to that, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim says the World Bank is talking with the U.S. about infrastructure and private-sector development. The World Bank is also launching a women's initiative with Ivanka Trump this weekend. 

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Mauricio Cardenas, Colombia's finance minister, says oil prices are the reason for lower GDP growth levels. Prior to that, Jason Furman, former chairman at the Council of Economic Advisers, says he's confident the Trump administration can keep up with the Ph.D.'s of the IMF. Ken Leon, a bank analyst at CFRA, says JPMorgan is more efficient than its peers. Klaus Regling, the managing director of the European Stability Mechanism, says lower taxes can help economic growth. Finally, South Africa's Central Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago says the government is stable despite political contestation. 

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Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, discusses inflation expectations and says we should be spending time above two percent inflation. Christopher Scalia, editor of "Scalia Speaks," talks about his dad Antonin Scalia and reflects on law and faith. Mike Mayo, the head of U.S. large-cap bank research at Wells Fargo, says banks seek returns and profitability and not market share. Finally, William Blair's Nick Heymann says Honeywell isn't broken, just simplifying. 

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Richard Thaler, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, discusses volatility in stocks and says stocks can't be based on the certitude that there will be a massive tax cut. Prior to that, Kevin Hassett, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, says tax reform deserves bipartisan support. Luigi Zingales, a finance professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, says it's impossible to think about economics without behavioral economics. Finally, Olivier Blanchard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, says tax reform won't boost growth.  

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Glenn Hubbard, the dean of Columbia University Business School, discusses Richard Thaler's "great" Nobel Prize win. Andreas Dombret, a board member at Deutsche Bundesbank, says the Basel Committee is moving closer and closer to a deal. Yale University's Robert Shiller says behavioral economics is the most important thing to happen in economics in the last 20 years. Finally, Randall Kroszner, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Economics, says adding humanity into economics has been a transformation in recent years. 

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Janus Henderson's Bill Gross says Neel Kashkari would be his choice for chair of the Federal Reserve, but doesn't see it happening. Princeton's Alan Krueger says the tax proposals could have substantial effects on the U.S. economy. Finally, Gary Cohn, director of the U.S. National Economic Council, says the stock market reflects President Trump's economic plan.

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We are in an era of weak leadership, says Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman's global head of currency strategy, and the support ratings for some leaders in Europe are lower than Donald Trump's. Eurasia Group's Jon Lieber says the military has a strong command on Trump's foreign policy. Finally, Representative Peter Roskam, a Republican from Illinois, says the end game is transformational tax reform.

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Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says Rex Tillerson can't succeed in his role as Secretary of State and that it's hard to run a disciplined operation under this administration. Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, says a lot of economists are worried about the proposed tax plan's impact on deficit and debt. Finally, Willett Advisors' Steve Rattner says it's the White House's responsibility to "herd the cats" and bring people together.

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Tom Keene sits down with Fed Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer in an interview on Fed policy and the future of the Fed before his departure from the role. 

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Lawmakers and executives are struggling to keep up with the influence of social networks and modern communication, Niall Ferguson, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, says. JPMorgan's John Normand says Brexit seems to be going soft. Finally, Representative Jan Schakowsky, a Democrat from Illinois, says the cardinal sin of politics is disrespect.

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Filmmaker Ken Burns discusses the state of American gun legislation and his latest documentary, "The Vietnam War." Bob Profusek, a partner and head of M&A at Jones Day, says people within China's deal environment aren't worried about currency or regulation, but the attitude of the U.S. administration. Steven Barr, PWC's consumer markets leader, says physical retail may be stronger this holiday season. Finally, former Acting CBO Director Donald Marron says there's evidence that links tax cuts and economic growth, but it isn't as compelling as some think. 

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Gary Cohn, the director of the National Economic Council, says the Trump administration is creating a tax plan that encourages Americans to invest in the future of the country. Christopher Giancarlo, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, says the CFTC needs a 12 percent budget increase for more examiners, more economists and more technology. Ken Sena, a senior analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, reveals how his proprietary research into AI could shift the landscape for investors. Representative Tom Reed, a Republican from New York, talks about the proposed tax plan and says we have to reward hard work, not penalize it.

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Stephen Moore, a former economic adviser for the Trump campaign, says corporations are holding up to $3 trillion abroad that needs to be brought back to the U.S. to get the economy growing. Prior to that, Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter, says Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are ridiculously priced. Americans are tired of waiting for what the GOP said it would do, Republican Representative Jim Jordan says. Finally, Janus Henderson's Ashwin Alankar says as long as interest rates stay low, it's hard for volatility to rise. 

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E.J. Dionne, the author of "One Nation After Trump" and a columnist at The Washington Post, says one of the biggest problems the U.S. faces is the disconnect between the economies of metro areas and smaller, industrial ones. It's great to have a turnover in Congress, according to Senator Pat Toomey, a Republican from Pennsylvania. Markets are drowning in cash, Bob Michele, managing director at JPMorgan Asset Management, says. CFRA's Lindsey Bell says equities are "the best house on the block." Finally, Chad Thomas, Bloomberg's bureau chief in Berlin, says Angela Merkel and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have a "love-hate" relationship. 

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Chris Ailman, CIO of CalSTRS, says we'll see a split in market research and when it's valuable, people should be willing to pay for it. OPEC's power is diminishing but it still has the power to jawbone the price of oil, Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone says. Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat from Maryland, says his party needs to refocus on what the Democratic party has always stood for: the chance for everybody to have a good job and decent future. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius says more competition is the best rate restrictor in health care. Finally, Joel L. Fleishman, a professor at Duke University, talks about his book "Putting Wealth to Work: Philanthropy for Today or Investing for Tomorrow?" and says the most interesting things in life are the ones that can't be measured. 

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John Kornblum, the former U.S. Ambassador to Germany, questions if Germany's next generation will jump into the digital world or become more national oriented. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, the former director-general for economic policy at the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, says Germany's governing coalition has done very well economically. John Vail, the chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management Americas, says the Japanese people are actually against inflation. The oil industry's in denial about electric cars, PK Verleger President Phil Verleger says. Finally, Cornell University's Eswar Prasad says the PBOC is in a good spot with the renminbi.

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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says that NAFTA is killing jobs and that the U.S. is the least protectionist major economy in the world. Prior to that, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, says it's impossible to sustain three percent GDP growth with U.S. productivity the way it is. Finally, David Rubenstein, co-CEO of the Carlyle Group, says CBS CEO Les Moonves has an ability to pick shows that work. 

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President Trump, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell torpedoed the bipartisan effort to pass healthcare, Senator Tim Kaine says. Prior to that, Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference, says there's no way that Germany, France or the U.K. can replace the leadership of the U.S. Finally, Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, says there's a "tug of war" in China between the role of the state and the role of the markets.

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The former governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, talks about how the financial crisis changed the banking culture and says a market economy can't succeed with near-zero interest rates. Martin Sorrell, CEO of WPP, says the uncertainty Brexit caused has been excruciating for his company. Finally, David Rubenstein, co-CEO of the Carlyle Group, defends the liberal arts education as important in business.

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Ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting, Russ Koesterich, a global allocation fund manager at BlackRock, discusses criticisms of the U.S. central bank and says rates aren't an ideal tool for tackling income inequality. Toby Cosgrove, the president of the Cleveland Clinic, says people must recognize the magnitude of the opiod crisis and it's up to the state and federal governments to solve it. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the president of the American Action Forum, discusses the deficit and its disservice to the overall economy. Finally, Gary Bettman, the commissioner of the National Hockey League, says new guidelines have opened up hockey to become a game of speed and skill. 

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Congress needs to disrupt its 19th-century structure, while still respecting the institution, Jane Harman, the president and CEO of the Woodrow Wilson Center, says. Willett Advisors' Steve Rattner says the existential question for Apple is what is the next act and is Tim Cook able to produce it? Finally, Princeton economist Alan Krueger discusses the connection between the opioid crisis and labor force participation.

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Hugh Hendry, the founder of Eclectica Asset Management, discusses the motivations behind the decision to close the Eclectica Fund and says the global macro game will get fun again in the future. Sen. Ben Cardin, a Democrat from Maryland, says the only way our political system will function is if Republicans and Democrats work together. Fortress Investments' Wes Edens, Marc Lasry, the founder of Avenue Capital Group and co-owner of the Milwaukee Bucks, and Jamie Dinan, the founder of York Capital Management, talk about investing in a "tough" environment and the evolution of basketball. Finally, Christopher Hill, former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, says the U.S. and China must do more than sanctions against North Korea. 

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It's embarrassing that parents have more choices of mayonnaise at the supermarket than they do schools to send their children to, Sen. John Kennedy, a Republican from Louisiana, says. Pimco's Rich Clarida says technology, trade, and immigration are working together to create anxiety for Americans. Finally, former CIA director Jim Woolsey says Russia's interference with elections isn't new--it's the cyber-tactics they're using.

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We need to focus on getting workers the skills they need for the jobs that need filling, David Herro, Harris Associates' CIO of international equity, says. Michael R. Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, and Daniel Huttenlocher, dean of Cornell Tech, discuss the university's new campus on Roosevelt Island. Finally, Gene Munster, co-founder of Loup Ventures, says Apple is defying the laws of physics in pricing its products.

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Most Americans no longer believe the American dream applies to them, Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, says. Peter Henry, the dean of NYU's Stern School of Business, says many are still enthusiastic about jobs in public service. Finally, the retention rate of Apple iPhone users is higher than any other product out there, Walter Piecyk, an analyst at BTIG, reports.

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