Bloomberg Surveillance

Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz, currently an economics professor at Columbia University, says if President Trump asked, he would agree to lead the Federal Reserve. Prior to that, Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says Trump seems bent on making enemies in Washington. Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, says 16 years after 9/11 lower Manhattan’s pace of gentrification has accelerated. Finally, Kurt Andersen, host of Studio 360, discusses his new book, Fantasyland: How America Went Haywire, tracing the Internet’s evolution as a launch pad for lies and what laid the groundwork for it.

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Mohamed El-Erian, a columnist at Bloomberg View, says the Fed is in the midst of a "beautiful normalization" and needs a team approach. Prior to that, Chuck Gabriel, founder of Capital Alpha Partners, says President Trump's deal with Democrats will only make tax reform harder. Finally, Jeffrey Solomon, president of Cowen and Co., says the research industry is at a point where excellence wins and mediocrity is eliminated. 

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Former Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser says two percent inflation target is achievable and vacancies at the Fed are the result of politicization. Gregg Lemkau, Goldman Sachs' co-head of investment banking, says the lack of predictability in the Trump administration has people pausing on deals and transactions. Finally, Atul Lele, Deltec's chief investment officer, says U.S. economic expansion has been driven mainly by private industry.

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Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez discusses the need for more comprehensive immigration reform. Prior to that, Peter Hayes, BlackRock's head of municipal bonds, says one must believe in the long-term efficacy of a particular state when buying bonds. Finally, Kathleen Fisher, AllianceBernstein's head of wealth and investment strategies, says small banks buying even smaller ones.

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North Korea's Kim Jong-Un wants the U.S. to "get off his lawn" and Americans shouldn't worry about nuclear war any time soon, says Mark Kimmitt, the former U.S. assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs. Prior to that, James Stavridis, dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, says China holds North Korea's leash. Finally, Steve Bell, a senior advisor at the Bipartisan Policy Center, says there's a chance of tax cuts in early 2018.

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Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Henderson, says this is a weak jobs report and that he sees the U.S. budget deficit increasing. Prior to that, Jim Glassman, JPMorgan's head economist for commercial banking, says economists should worry when businesses stop worrying. Gary Cohn, director of the White House National Economic Council, says a tax blueprint will be coming out in the next couple of weeks. Finally, Brian Kelly, founder of The Points Guy, says avoid flying to Houston, but if you are, ask for a "weather waiver."

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Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter, says there won't be any gasoline from the Colonial pipelines for the next several weeks. Prior to that, Nicholas Akins, CEO of American Electric Power, says it's critical to get electrical power back up at chemical facilities in Houston. Finally, Michael Brown, an economist at Wells Fargo, says he expects Democrats to support a clean debt-ceiling bill.

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Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, tells Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua why Morgan Stanley is revising its GDP forecast and says the economy hasn't seen the worst yet for inflation this year. Jens Nordvig, Exante Data's CEO and founder, says there's too much concern about European political risk. Jacques Rousseau, an oil and gas analyst at Clearview Energy Partners, says things may get to the point where companies borrow oil. Finally, Daniel Alpert, Westwood Capital's managing partner, says the vicious cycle of borrowing to consume is re-emerging.

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Ralph Schlosstein, president and CEO of Evercore Partners, says the next chair of the Federal Reserve doesn't have to be a seasoned economist. Prior to that, Harm Bandholz, Unicredit's chief U.S. economist, says the U.S. will be at two percent GDP by the end of next year. Pete Sessions, a Republican representative from Texas, says President Trump must figure out where his best talents are quickly. Finally, Bruce Klingner, a former CIA deputy division chief, says China would act on North Korea if the U.S. limited their financial access.

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Former FEMA Director James Lee Witt says Trump's done everything right so far on Hurricane Harvey. Prior to that, Representative Mark Walker, chairman of the Republican Study Committee, says he expects U.S. tax reform to pass before Thanksgiving. Noah Feldman, a Bloomberg View columnist, says it's clear Trump ignored all formal processes in pardoning Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Finally, former Fed Vice Chair Alice Rivlin says a government shutdown could still happen, even though she doesn't expect it.

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Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, says the economy is closer to the neutral rate than some think, and the Fed should be moving on its balance sheet. Glenn Hubbard, dean of the Columbia Business School, sees 2 percent inflation in the not-too-distant future. Finally, Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz SE's chief economic adviser, says despite the back and forth in Washington, the government's debt ceiling will be resolved.

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Esther George, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, says the Fed can start shrinking its balance sheet and that there's still an opportunity to increase rates once more. Prior to that, Ron Temple, Lazard Asset Management's co-head of multi-asset investment, says leadership is not a tweet. Shannon O'Neil, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says Latin American countries have a reflex action about U.S. tough talk. Finally, Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota and a former presidential candidate, says despite Democrat opposition, a tax bill could be forced through by Republicans if they wanted.

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Chuck Gabriel, president of Capital Alpha Partners, says Trump doesn't have to play a heroic role, just a less destructive one. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., says massive tax reform is due in the U.S. Finally, Jacques Rousseau, the managing director of global oil and gas at Clearview Energy Partners, says there's a disconnect in gas consumption data.

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Former U.S. Army Secretary Eric Fanning says President Trump is over-relying on military advice and that his views on Afghanistan have evolved significantly. Prior to that, Conrad Dequadros, RDQ Economics' senior economist, says there's a low chance that U.S. fiscal policy will change. Finally, Lawrence Korb, the former assistant secretary of defense, says Trump's policy on Afghanistan risks inciting terrorists.

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Former GM CEO Dan Akerson says President Trump can win back peoples' good will with good deeds. Prior to that, Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income, says Mario Draghi will probably focus on international economic issues at Jackson Hole. Brad Blakeman, a Republican strategist, says it's now up to Trump to unite the country. Finally, Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, says Steven Bannon's tax proposal was the "stupidest, dumbest and more destructive" idea he's heard.

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Jytte Klausen, a professor at Brandeis University, says terror attacks in Europe reflect failures by local officials. Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Chase's commercial banking head economist, says the Fed needs to hold high ground. John Hudak, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says President Trump still has a lot of tacit support. Finally, Mitch Lowe, the CEO of MoviePass, says cinemas must ramp up their security.

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Douglas Brinkley, a historian and professor at Rice University, says there's a fierce hatred between Americans. Prior to that, Senator Benjamin Cardin, a Democrat from Maryland, says more people need to speak out against President Trump. David Herro, Harris Associates' CIO of international equity, says there are still opportunities in Italian banks. Republican Representative David Reichert says Trump's Charlottesville remarks were concerning. Finally, Chuck Robbins, the CEO of Cisco, says the company's transition to software is speeding up.

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Brad DeLong, an economics professor at Berkeley, says Wal-Mart, not Amazon, is killing small-town America. Prior to that, New Jersey Representative Bill Pascrell, a Democrat, says Republicans are afraid to stand up to Trump. Sebastien Galy, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, says wages will eventually rise. Finally, Michael Barone, the author of "The Almanac of American Politics," says Democrats and Trump are both behaving irrationally.

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Neal Soss, Credit Suisse's vice chairman of global fixed income, says it's been difficult to get inflation to move and politics is a distraction to markets. Prior to that, Gideon Rose, the editor of Foreign Affairs magazine, says the U.S. isn't Venezuela and President Trump won't bring this country down. Then, Admiral James Stavridis, the dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, says he has enormous respect for John Kelly and communicates with him often.

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Thomas Ricks, a Pulitzer-prize winning author, says U.S. political turmoil is reminiscent of the 1930s. Prior to that, Douglass Kass, founder and partner at Seabreeze Partners, says he expects Twitter to be part of a much larger company by next year. Fred Hochberg, the former chairman of Export-Import Bank of U.S., says the future of the Democratic party will be with the young and millennials. Finally, Michael Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says Trump hasn't left himself room to maneuver with China.

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Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo's head of U.S. large-cap bank research, says the heat is on Goldman Sachs and that he expects to see a jump in Citigroup shares. Prior to that, Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, says bluff and bluster doesn't help the U.S. Then, Jeffrey Rosenberg, BlackRock's chief fixed-income strategist, says inflation reports matter to the Fed as it's looking for transitory weakness. Finally, Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics, says inflation data from September and October will be more important for the Fed.

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Dominic Konstam, Deutsche Bank Securities' global rates research head, says the Fed will face questions if inflation stays low and says that fiscal reform may raise potential U.S. growth. Frank Keating, the former governor of Oklahoma, says Trump must be a cheerleader for his agenda. Former Assistant Secretary of State Mark Kimmitt says the U.S. needs to meet Kim Jong-un capability-for-capability and word-for-word so that he's no longer a threat to the region. Finally, Austan Goolsbee, a professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, says the U.S. isn't doing a great job about measuring part-time jobs in the labor economy.

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General Wesley Clark, the former NATO Allied Supreme Commander, says the Democratic party needs to focus on economic growth. Prior to that, Ted Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says China is North Korea's primary trade partner and sanctions will squeeze North Korea's economy to a degree we haven't seen in the past. Michael Nathanson, a senior research analyst at MoffettNathanson, says cable companies may shift the profit they made from TV to profit from broadband. Finally, Oklahoma Representative Tom Cole says the U.S. doesn't want to be provocative but does need North Korea to know it's serious.

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Leon Cooperman, chairman and CEO of Omega Advisors, talks about Bill Ackman's plans for Automatic Data Processing Inc. Prior to that, Martin Sorrell, CEO of WPP, says China is becoming a major technological force. Then, Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget Policy, says the U.S. tax codes are just too complex.

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Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says the Fed is in a period of "normal" difficulties. Prior to that, Kevin Logan, HSBC's chief U.S. economist, says the Fed is on course to begin its disinvestment policy. Deborah Lehr, a senior fellow at the Paulson Institute, says there's concern about China's abilities to combat North Korea. Finally, Alexia Howard, a senior research analyst at Sanford Bernstein, says Mondelez is struggling in emerging markets.

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White House economic adviser Gary Cohn says there's more deregulation to come. Prior to that, Jim Glassman, a senior economist at JPMorgan, says U.S. benchmarks we used to have are obsolete. Mohamed El-Erian, a Bloomberg View columnist, says Euro gloom has given way to Euro optimism. Alan Krueger, a professor at Princeton University, says technology isn't a job-killer. Finally, Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Henderson, says real interest rates are a problem.

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Neuberger Berman's Charles Kantor discusses the Amazon/Whole Foods deal and also says GE's Jeff Immelt performed well for his company. Peter Westaway, Vanguard Asset Services' chief European economist, says the slightly dovish message from the BOE is appropriate. Finally, Michael Chertoff, former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, says the scale of cyberattacks will grow.

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Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs' chairman and CEO, and Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, discuss banking regulation and the impact on business. Prior to that, Credit Suisse's Matthew Rothman and JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos share lessons learned 10 years after the financial crisis. Finally, James Stavridis, the dean of Fletcher School at Tufts University, says General John Kelly is all about duty.

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David Herro, Harris Associate's CIO of international equity, says the European economy is finally seeing a spark. Prior to that, Christopher Grisanti, founder of Grisanti Capital Management, says the Discovery-Scripps deal is desperation not to be left behind. Charles Gabriel, founder of Capital Alpha Partners, says the health-care bill is "mostly dead." Finally, PIMCO's Joachim Fels says Trump is winning the "cold currency war."

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Arizona Senator Jeff Flake says many people are concerned about President Trump's chaotic White House atmosphere. Prior to that, Michael Shaoul, CEO of Marketfield Asset Management, says 2017 may be the best year for markets since 2009. Wendy Schiller, the chair of political science at Brown University, says established Republicans don't want to work for Trump. Russ Koesterich, a money manager at BlackRock, says OPEC isn't in control. Finally, Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, says the dollar is quietly and laboriously moving lower.

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Tim Adams, President and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, said we can still get a deal on tax reform in fourth quarter of 2017 or first quarter of 2018. George Bory, Wells Fargo Head of Credit Strategy, said he thinks bond yields will go up a bit and is looking to protect bond price returns. Steven Friedman, senior economist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said consumers will continue to drive economic growth. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) House Ways and Means Tax Policy Subcommittee Ranking Member, said President Trump voters are mixed on whether they have wavered in their support of him. David Rubenstein, host of "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" discusses his conversation with Elliott Management's Paul Singer.

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Bob Nardelli, Former Chrysler & Home Depot CEO & Chairman, said rolling back restrictions and lowering corporate tax rates will help companies stay in the U.S. and make money. Richard Clarida, PIMCO Strategic Advisor, said the U.S. inflation picture can turn on a dime. Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income's Chief Investment Strategist, said volatility is low during rate hike cycles because the Fed has a lot of control.

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Former Senator Jim DeMint says Republicans need to keep their promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act and that President Trump and Jeff Sessions need to restore their relationship. Prior to that, Michael Darda, MKM Holdings' chief economist, and Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, discuss European politics and international relations. Finally, Seth Carpenter, UBS' chief U.S. economist, says the current decade is the slowest in productivity growth since World War II.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee, BNP Paribas' chief market economist, says 3 percent GDP growth isn't going to happen. Prior to that, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity's chief market strategist, says there's a synchronized global economic recovery. Texas Representative William Hurd says the Trump administration has done a good job in dealing with ISIS. Finally, Ohio Representative Timothy Ryan says there's no real seriousness within the GOP.

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Terry Haines, Evercore ISI's senior political strategist, says the GOP has the "keys to the car" but not complete control and that White House investigations are distractions in D.C. Then, Michael Cohen, the head of energy commodities research at Barclays, says there's a lack of clarity from Libya and Nigeria on oil levels. Finally, Peter Hayes, BlackRock's head of municipal bonds, says new high yield deals that are coming to the markets are structurally weak.

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Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and a columnist at Bloomberg View, talks about the future of the Federal Reserve. Prior to that, Chris Verrone, who heads technical analysis at Strategas Research Partners, says market trends can influence seasonality. Jeff Sprague, founder of Vertical Research Partners, says GE's cash flow was better for the second quarter, but the company has a big hill to climb to get to the full-year target. Finally, Bloomberg View's Tim O'Brien says people need to care about issues related to Russian sanctions.

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Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University, says central bankers should've been more aggressive during the financial crisis and that India's demonetization was done too quickly. Prior to that, Kathy Matsui, chief Japan equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Japan, says Japanese companies are strong. Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University, says New York City housing is more affordable than people think. Finally, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu says Washington's stuck making the same mistakes in health care.

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Robert Sinche, a global strategist at Amherst Peirpont, says there's a lot of political and monetary uncertainty in the U.S. Then, Donald Straszheim, the head of Evercore ISI's China research team, says Washington won't be able to get what it wants out of China. Douglas Duncan, Fannie Mae's chief economist, expects strong U.S. housing price appreciation to continue. Finally, Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy, says the best thing the Fed can do is let the labor market run hot to create more wage pressure.

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Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's director of U.S. practice, says the federal government will have to step in as the Obamacare marketplace fails. Prior to that, John Silvia, Wells Fargo's chief economist, says there's an imbalance in U.S. economic policies. Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, says credit hasn't normalized for mortgage lendings. Finally, Bloomberg Businessweek's Joshua Green discusses Steve Bannon's influence on power, the thinking behind Trump's actions and the state of U.S. political parties.

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Ezekiel Emanuel, chairman of medical ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania, says the health-care bill must be defeated. Prior to that, Tony Crescenzi, a market strategist at PIMCO, says he expects one more rate hike this year with two to three in 2018. Finally, Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says Trump must widen his circle of advisers.

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Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says businesses have far less pricing power right now and to expect wage pressures to mount in the months ahead. Prior to that, Kate Moore, BlackRock's chief equity strategist, says we should feel confident about the sustainability of the market. Megan Murphy, editor of Bloomberg Businessweek, discusses Lloyd Blankfein's banking resiliency. Kenneth Leon, a bank analyst at CFRA, says Wells Fargo is a "super-regional bank" rather than a diversified global bank. Finally, Thomas Coburn, a former senator from Oklahoma, says health care won't get fixed in Washington.

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Steve Rattner, Willett Advisors' chairman, says Trump isn't interested in advice or suggestions in running his White House. Prior to that, Mario Gabelli, Gabelli Funds' CIO of value portfolios, says American companies will get tailwinds as opposed to headwinds. Douglas Elmendorf, the dean of Harvard's Kennedy School, says it's important for GOP leaders to stand up for the CBO and its work. Brian Wieser, a senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, says Fox is undervalued. Finally, Martin Sorrell, WPP's CEO, says businesses have yet to see the effects of U.K. uncertainty.

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Arkansas Congressman French Hill says Fed governors need banking, business and a mixture of experience. Prior to that, Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist, says the important thing to look for from the Fed is balance sheet timing. Libby Cantrill, Pimco's executive vice president, says expectations for passing legislation are unrealistic. Finally, Toby Cosgrove, CEO of the Cleveland Clinic, says he doesn't expect the health-care bill to be passed.

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Charles Plosser, the former Philadelphia Fed president, says central banks around the world have overreached and Randal Quarles's nomination would be good for the Fed board. Prior to that, Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds' CIO of growth equities, says we're in a nominal 3 percent GDP world. David Shulkin, U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs, says the V.A. has invested heavily in cybersecurity. Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, says North Korea's regime is evil, but not crazy. Finally, Timothy O'Brien, Bloomberg View's executive editor, says Trump is his own first and last counsel.

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Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says Trump's "wounds" are self-inflicted by his sensitivity to criticism and inability to let the Russia story go. Prior to that, Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics' chief economist, says Europe inflation is under  target. Jim Barry, BlackRock's head of real assets, says the U.S. has underinvested in infrastructure for 30 to 40 years. Finally, Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Kissinger Associates, says a well-functioning global economy would make America great again.

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Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Henderson, says the bond market isn't in a rout yet and to expect one more Fed rate increase this year, likely in December. Prior to that, Alan Krueger, a professor at Princeton University, says the U.S. is heading toward a labor shortage economy. James Glassman, a senior economist at JPMorgan, says the jobs data for June show people are recognizing the economy's in a better position today. Finally, Max Baucus, the former U.S. ambassador to China, says foreign leaders don't know what to expect from President Trump's inconsistency.

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Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates' vice chairman, says Russia is clearly trying to undermine stability among European countries within the NATO alliance. Barry Eichengreen, a professor at the University of California at Berkley, says the U.S. will learn how hard it is to go alone in the world. Roberto Azevedo, the director general at the World Trade Organization, says the Trump administration is still trying to figure out its trade plans. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, says the Fed's still following the Phillips curve tradition. Gene Munster, co-founder of Loup Ventures, says Tesla's Model 3 is a paradigm shift in e-vehicles and autonomy.

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Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and John Ryding, RDQ Economics' chief economist, agree to disagree on the past, present and future for Fed Chair Yellen and other bankers. Prior to that, David Folkerts-Landau, Deutsche Bank's chief economist, says the Fed will lead the way against market dangers through gradual rate increases and careful communication. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management's chief economist, says the Fed's painted into a corner in terms of shrinking its balance sheet. Finally, Louise Yamada, a market analyst at Louise Yamada Techresearch, says a near-term correction isn't in the horizon.

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Robert Feldman, a senior advisor at Morgan Stanley MUFG, says Shinzo Abe has an opportunity to get his party back on track and Japan wants to play a more active role against North Korea. Prior to that, Berenberg Capital Markets' Mickey Levy says global central banks are conducting policies that are inconsistent with market fundamentals. Finally, Don Katz, founder and CEO of Audible, discusses the evolution of the audio book, podcasts and Audible's relationship with Amazon.

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Harm Bandholz, Unicredit's chief U.S. economist, talks about his optimistic view of the unemployment rate and says it would be positive for the U.S. if the Eurozone strengthens. Robert Profusek, a partner at Jones Day, says the pace of deal-making isn't slowing but it's taking longer to close. Finally, Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter, says the recent gold drop may have been caused by Venezuela selling.

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